Libya war coming to an end. Does it?

[Skybird]

Last days' and today's reports indicate that the rebels were successful in isolating Tripolis and cutting off the last supply lines into Tripolis. It is reported they also successfully negotiated with tribes in the Western part of the county to quit their loyalty to Gaddafi, with hostilities in the Western areas having faded out. More and more military key officers of Gaddafi are deserting, just yesterday another minister. The firing of a Scud yesterday is seen as a sign of how desperate Gaddafi is, with him being surrounded from all directions and the rebels free to move where they want, and having opened their own oil export harbour already some time ago, guaranteeing them financial income. More and more foreign observers conclude that the military situation for Gaddafi'S forces is more or less hopeless now. Rebel commanders say that they will start the storm on Tripolis in 2-3 weeks, saying that despite high numbers of injured in past days, this has not stopped them, and Gaddafi-forces also suffering high losses - which they can no longer replace.

Sounds like the endgame is set to start soon. Although, as we all know, urban house-to-house combat is bloody and nasty. But I see a chance that Gaddafi'S troops will not stand up until the last man, but will desert or switch sides. If the rebels are wise, they make them offerings for amnesty and escaping alive if they leave while the endbattle still has not started.

But I have not heared anything about what to do then, once it is over. I have not heared how the West plans to position himself. And the little we got told about the rebels, prevents me from putting my trust in them for the political changes Libya will face once Gaddafi's clan is (hopefully) dead. The revolution is tunisia has stalled and somewhat reversed, so is the revolution in Egypt with the fundamentalists hvaing reorgansied and now are the best set-iup group to dominate the political arena in the new found freedom.

I see no reason why it will go much different in Libya.

[the_tyrant]

its still too early to say, just look at somalia, Sierra Leon, etc
often with these African wars they just drag on for too long, with either side gaining an upper hand at certain times

[TLAM Strike]

Qaddafi fired off a Scud at a Rebel held city yesterday. Missed the target by miles apparently.

[Castout]

I'm disappointed with how Egypt is doing post Mubarak. It seems Mubarak trial is but a charade and the military ruler still doesn't get it that the people want REAL secular(nationalistic) democracy which respects human dignity. Democracy that respects individual rights, democracy which nurtures freedom of expression and freedom of press. If you want to pardon Mubarak then pardon him but do not give a charade trial.

If things continue those who died in Egypt will die in vain.

What is wrong with those in power? Too many stupid people. Egypt has been in the mud for far too long. They could become a great nation that its people deserve.

Or perhaps I am being too impatient. I can only hope that is the case.
I'm too well aware how it feels to be oppressed.

[Castout]

Originally Posted by the_tyrant

its still too early to say, just look at somalia, Sierra Leon, etc
often with these African wars they just drag on for too long, with either side gaining an upper hand at certain times

Nah Qaddafi is finished. It's just a matter of how. What his exit strategy will be.

You don't plant many mines when you are strong. You place many mines to stall for time.

Libya conflict will not drag on. It is not Afghanistan nor it is Iraq. It is a civil war that is not going to drag on though all this wouldn't be possible without NATO intervention.

My worry is that there will be another Gaddafi post Gaddafi. The people deserve better than that. Another worry is that the tribes must be able to unite post Gaddafi. Libya is greater than any one man or family or a tribe.

I'm disappointed with how Egypt is doing post Mubarak. It seems Mubarak trial is but a charade and the military ruler still doesn't get it that the people want REAL secular(nationalistic) democracy which respects human dignity.

Do you really expect the generals to give up power?

Libya conflict will not drag on.

Would you like to put money on that?

It is a civil war that is not going to drag on though all this wouldn't be possible without NATO intervention.

Just one question Castout. Excluding NATO how many different sides do you think are involved in the civil war?

[Castout]

Originally Posted by Tribesman

Would you like to put money on that?

YES. I'd put my money that Gaddafi will be gone and that the effort won't drag on. I can't and won't put a date on it but it will not take long. I'd also put my money that Libya will not be the last Arab/Africa nation that has had a successful evolution in this string of Arab awakening.

YES. I'd put my money that Gaddafi will be gone and that the effort won't drag on.

So you think this civil war is just daffy, no wonder you didn't even hazard a guess about how many different groups are involved.

[Skybird]

Die Welt refers to unconfirmed reports about the Gaddafi clan having fled from Tripolis, being close the Algerian border now, protected by a tribe in that place. They should plan to cross the border by night.

http://www.welt.de/politik/article13...fluechtet.html

If so, that means the endgame went faster than expected, which is good, and the whole clan escaped, which is bad.

[Gerald]

Gaddafi moves around all the time, spread rumors about being here and there, but he knows that his time is coming soon....very soon!

[Betonov]

If I know our prime idiot, Gadaffi will get an asylum in Slovenia and a lakeside villa

[Gerald]

Originally Posted by Betonov

If I know our prime idiot, Gadaffi will get an asylum in Slovenia and a lakeside villa

Forget it, there is no chance for this,

[Castout]

Originally Posted by Tribesman

So you think this civil war is just daffy, no wonder you didn't even hazard a guess about how many different groups are involved.

Well let's see that with time shall we whether they will descend to infighting or establish a new democracy. I have good faith they will not descend into infighting.

[Skybird]

The fighting right now cannot deceive anyone anymore that in principle it is over. Regular troops are defecting in the streets by the dozens now, leaving behind their uniforms. They are exhausted, demoralised, and out of supply.

Libya has some 130 tribes. Several dozen political and religious groups as well. All of them wanting their share of oil profits, their say in forming power.

That Gaddafi would not be able to hold out forever, was clear. The real interesting things, the real uncertain story starts just now.

On a sidenote, for Germany it is a shame to face. Hasn't Germany's elite claimed that the military action of Britain and France would be unappropriate to make a difference in regime change, making Germany lining up on the side of China and Russia...?

[Diopos]

Originally Posted by Skybird

...
making Germany lining up on the side of China and Russia...?

Cmon Sky, the shift of Germany to the East is obvious years now. There are resources it needs and new markets there. It also accounts, to a degree, for some of its euroscepticism. The Chineese don't need EU funds to buy BMWs do they?

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