In RL any chance for a Kilo skipper to survive after attacking a Chinese task force?

[Castout]

Just played a scenario titled killer Kilo with DWX mod installed.

Playing as an Indian Kilo skipper patrolling near Andaman island. The Chinese task force escorting a few landing crafts were the targets.

In the end I exhausted all my torpedoes
and sank
A Chinese oiler which was part of the task force
A Luda frigate
A Yuting class landing craft
Damaged a Jiangwei Frigate
Damaged a Chinese supply ship

But my egress out of the threat zone was like escaping the lion's den. Once I wreaked havoc among the Chinese ships from 3nmi distance the remaining ships converged on me! A Chinese Kilo which was part of the escort but took a position quite far away from the main task force even converged on me.
I was helpless I dodged about 4 torpedoes before the final one got me.

All I can say is that it was a hell of a fight and evasion.

I'm wondering in RL how much a chance a Kilo skipper would have to survive a Chinese task force counterattack. The Chinese had a Sovremenny DDG, 2 LUDA I, 1 to 2 Jiangwei and a Kilo. I just think every time a Kilo exposed itself after attacking or launching its torpedoes it became very vulnerable to enemy counter attack. It's almost like the Kilo were a disposable sub that you trade after inflicting as much damage to enemy task force.
Against one or two enemy ships the Kilo could probably defend itself but 3 or more then the odds are starting to go against it.

My compliment to the DWX modders as I watched numerous times the smart actions of the enemy ships(only showed truth on after attacking and turned it off whenever a torpedo was coming, I just couldn't resist to see the all action) as they hunted me down much like smoking a rat out of the its hole nest. They were sure very persistent. I was thinking please give me a break all the time....lol

[Dr.Sid]

Generally .. if submarine's (any submarine) position is known, it is dead.
Avoiding detection with Kilo's short ranged torpedoes is hard. I guess it would not work. Maybe send some torpedoes to the 'general escort direction', they should run for a while, at least, allowing you to slowly change position.
But you must realize Kilo is 'moving minefield' .. Kilo can't really run away. And minefields are not supposed to survive.

[Castout]

Thanks Dr Sid but I wasn't revealed but the launched torpedoes acted as a bearing betrayer to my position. The enemy just converged on the bearing in which they detected torpedoes were launched. And I really expended all my torpedoes. Just left with a pair of SSN15 ASW rocket borne torpedoes.

One curious thing I would like to ask is for the Kilo isn't approaching within 3 nmi of pinging enemy escort ships a sure way to be dead in RL?

I would imagine the active sonar to have started detecting something more than 3nmi away.

Is my assumption correct that active pinging would reveal a submerged submarine more than 3nmi away generally speaking?

[Dr.Sid]

In sonar everything depends on conditions. 3nm can be perfectly realistic under some conditions. But yeah, I too think it is quite low range.

Anyway, launching all torpedoes, you must expect someone to notice. With deep water and long range torpedoes, you can launch them from below the layer, or navigate them around the target. Also you can launch them much further away. In such case, torpedo will be detected at different location then you are. But with Kilo, all this is difficult. This is DW world.

IRL, I actually have no idea how well torpedoes can be detected, but I think it should be more or less like in DW. Torpedoes are loud.

Once I killed whole carrier group with Kilo, and I almost didn't fire a shot. I got inside the group, not that I wanted, but Kilo is so slow I could not evade .. then I got detected .. and then all escorts started to fire torpedoes at me .. but all torpedoes happily went for the 'bigger fish'. Two escorts also crashed into each other. I slowly moved away, and then finished the survivors.
Still it was bad AI, and it might not work with today's patch/mod level. It would not work for sure IRL.

[Castout]

Then after thinking of all these I can say for sure a Kilo is not so much a deterrent when facing a well equipped task force.

In fact even a very quiet non nuclear sub especially without long range heavy weight torpedoes is compromised a second after it launched its weapons and without the means to go fast in long ranges it's pretty much a game of how much longer it would still survive and not a question of if.

That is to say generally speaking in terms of survivability it's better to be in a nuclear sub than a non nuclear sub after all.
But of course when dealing with single unsuspecting warship, any sub would prove deadly.

[Dr.Sid]

It is detterent .. you wiped the task force right ? Task force for small sub is good trade-off. Also IRL the sub could get some support. It could cause panic and some damage, the aircraft could attack. Kilo can afford some vulnerability, since it works in home waters.

[ACR]

surely hard to answer and like said here much depending on situation, sonar condition, sub and escort skills.

the best shot is that a single kilo sent against a well protected task force would hardly be able to reach a good firing position without detected by active sonar and so probably would not sink a carrier.

in a hunt for the kilo i would give it a reasonable chance for surviving in deep waters with some layers at the first escort response,but of course they can play and wait until its batterises are down.

so my guess for real life- the kilo has in deep waters a 50% chance to survive the respone, but only 10% to score a hit at a significant ship of the task force.

for RL operations we also have to consider one more faktor-even the knowledge that the enemy has kilo subs gives the need for a big escort in asw and so even without a kill the kilo could fullfill its mission since many resources are used up fot the potential danger and since the rosources are always limited they may lack in other conflict scenarios.

[Castout]

Originally Posted by goldorak

Those are pretty big assumptions and if we go by real life reports (gotland sub sneaking up to an american carrier during friendly exercises) just demonstrate who wrong you are on this issue. The fact is diesel subs are pretty damn hard to detect, shallow or no shallow zone when using batteries. Wishing the Kilo were *S H I T* doesn't make it so in real life.

lol I don't wish the Kilo is a junk. I tried real hard to survive in the Kilo I played. Just that I found its weapons have a very limited range forcing me to approach within 3nmi of the nearest escort which was pinging actively. Had that been RL the escort would have picked me and started closing in and the task force would have edged away.

As for shallow water I guess the Kilo would have tremendous help in rocky bottom sea.

Originally Posted by ACR

surely hard to answer and like said here much depending on situation, sonar condition, sub and escort skills.

the best shot is that a single kilo sent against a well protected task force would hardly be able to reach a good firing position without detected by active sonar and so probably would not sink a carrier.

in a hunt for the kilo i would give it a reasonable chance for surviving in deep waters with some layers at the first escort response,but of course they can play and wait until its batterises are down.

so my guess for real life- the kilo has in deep waters a 50% chance to survive the respone, but only 10% to score a hit at a significant ship of the task force.

for RL operations we also have to consider one more faktor-even the knowledge that the enemy has kilo subs gives the need for a big escort in asw and so even without a kill the kilo could fullfill its mission since many resources are used up fot the potential danger and since the rosources are always limited they may lack in other conflict scenarios.

I think the Kilo biggest help is an unsuspecting enemy.

And it's best used against civilian shipping and a single or a pair of warship formation. And not used to challenge a task force(that's the job of a nuclear subs with free maneuverability, longer range weapons and for Russian or US Seawolf with more ready tubes). Well it could be used to challenge a task force but once it launched its weapons then it became exposed and once a Kilo is exposed it's only a matter of time before the ASW forces takes it out. And that is assuming it could approach a suspecting or an alert enemy within kill range of its weapon salvo without a hint of detection.

[goldorak]

Originally Posted by Castout

lol I don't wish the Kilo is a junk. I tried real hard to survive in the Kilo I played. Just that I found its weapons have a very limited range forcing me to approach within 3nmi of the nearest escort which was pinging actively. Had that been RL the escort would have picked me and started closing in and the task force would have edged away.

As for shallow water I guess the Kilo would have tremendous help in rocky bottom sea.

Castout, how do you know that a Kilo wouldn't be able to sneak up to 3 nmi of a ship ? Just because the ship is pinging doesn't mean it can pick up the Kilo. Consider enviromental conditions, consider the skipper manouvering the Kilo so that it is in line with the active ping (cross section is minimised) etc...
Diesel eletric subs using batteries are dead quiet, and if the enviroment is adverse, pinging will do you no good.

You have to know where to ping, take the frigate for instance, you have different modes for active pings. Single beam, omni and omni rotational. Getting a contact on single beam doesn't imply you'll get the same contact on omni for instance. And in single beam you must know where to send the ping. So you see even generic pinging theoretically will do you no good.

[Castout]

Hi goldorak I was referring to that specific scenario but I assume a continuous omni directional pinging would have exposed a Kilo approaching from more than 3 nmi. I admit that it's very hard to find a Kilo passively but that's all more reason the enemy will try to find it with other ways such as disembarked helicopter and active sonar.

Remember the Kilo must maneuver itself first and foremost to the ambush area ahead of the task force vector it can only try to maneuver to pose the minimum cross section to enemy active sonar when it has arrived at its ambush position..

Anyway all these are only my personal opinion

[OneShot]

Just a thought to consider ...

The Effectiveness of Active Pinging in RL is hugely dependant upon enviromental conditions and lots of other factors. Read up on various open publications and you can find instances where the detection occured at less than 1nm and sometimes detection occured at over 20k yards. Since passive detection of a conventional sub on batteries is extremely hard one's major chance of catching a conventional sub is to use active sonar. That ups the odds but its not a given that it will be detected at all.

So for the sake of argument, if the Kilo gets in close undetected then its chances after shooting to escape are not great but it should be doable (given that it can disguise the point from where it shot). However without disguising the datum, and if the ASW forces react decisivly, then the Skipper can kiss his *** goodbye