Quote:
Originally Posted by CCIP
Just out of curiosity, how many 130mm guns do they have possibly available there? And what sort of MLRS systems are we talking about?
I don't doubt, by the way, that whatever the type and number, the North would lose all meaningful artillery capability at the DMZ very quickly should a conflict start anyway. Heck, they'd probably lose most if not almost all of it within the first hour. But it's those opening salvos that I always reckoned to be a real danger to the South.
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I'll have to direct such questions to the great piece written by my comrade:
http://www.militaryphotos.net/forums/showthread.php?162240-Bluffer-s-Guide-North-Korea-strikes!-%282009%29
Quote:
Originally Posted by the_tyrant
my estimates (battle for Seoul) assuming North Korea attacks first, using 2000 forces:
First phase (red lines) 0-10 hours: are the first wave of North Korean attacks. Localized breakthroughs could be achieved, but no significant progress by the north Korean armies. North Korean artillery would cause a certain amount of damage to Seoul. However, the majority of North Korean guns would be destroyed by air-strikes and counter-battery fire.
Second phase (blue lines) 10-24 hours: South Korean localized counter attack. South Korean strategic reserves are used. Reserves and militia are mobilized. At the end of this phase, south Korean forces would dig in at the green line
Third phase (brown lines) 24-96 hours: South Korean forces would take back and restore prewar positions. American forces start to arrive. Both sides dig into their prewar defense lines, creating a short-lived stalemate. South Korea destroys most of the North's air power. Continued air strikes would cause damage to North Korean Forces
Forth Phase (black lines) after 96 hours: South Korea drive into North Korea with assistance from international forces
what do you guys think? |
Not sure if the North would even be able to advance that far. With US and ROK battlefield surveillance being what it is any large mechanized force will just stand out and draw fire. Remember the Highway of Death? US/ROK aircraft flying above 12,000 feet will have almost free reign since most North Korean SAM systems are compromised since former WP nations joined NATO. Even the much vaunted S-300. If you can't control the skys armor is toast. Forget about the KPAF, they have only about 35 Fulcrums in service, the rest are MiG 17-23. I wonder how many aces the blue team are going to have on day 1? Especally if the US commits Raptors out of Guam right off the bat.
Just read on ID today that we have 5 CSGs and 2 ARGs within up to 9 days travel of Korean waters right now...
