(Crazy) economy news

[Catfish]

Well we can thank Trump for it, and China. Trade war.

Regarding the german bonds and Money politics.. i do not like Krall, but he has a Point.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Well we can thank Trump for it, and China. Trade war.

Regarding the german bonds and Money politics.. i do not like Krall, but he has a Point.

"Wenn schwarze Schwäne Junge kriegen":


The monetary crash as a result of the monetary policy of the ECB is such a black swan. The majority of the population and the elites do not see him ,or refuse to acknowledge that a 800-pound gorilla sits at the breakfast table.

The euro crisis is not the only black swan. In my book I have - without claim to completeness - identified four others. They concern our data security, where the arrival of the quantum computer will turn old certainties on the head, the end of the party system that has survived because the parties view the state as the prey to their corruption, the legal form of the corporation because it separates ownership and control and gave a managerial caste power over resources that it does not own but can exploit. The result is bureaucratized large corporations that are no longer entrepreneurial, who punish trial and error with the end of personal career, and who, on a small scale, engage in the same kind of bureaucratic sclerosis as the state on a large scale. But what they master excellently is the corruption-intriguing game of lobbying. In this way they become part of a machine that tries to undermine and suppress market forces because they can not survive otherwise.

Last but not least there lurks at least one big black swan in the form of geopolitics. It consists of the tandem of neo-Ottoman imperialism and an immigration policy that has long since left the border to idiocy behind. Its explosive power will be greater the longer we allow our failed elites to continue their false economic, monetary and security policies.





^ Reply he gave in some interview. Further:





There are no more ways to avoid the crash.

The number of zombie companies is likely to be so great that the volume of lending to them exceeds the equity of the European banking system. The earning power of the banks has been permanently destroyed because they were forced to lend long-term loans at low margins. So it will take a long time to grow out of this revenue anemia. This is the downside of the fact that it took a long time for it to become visible, because you could feed on old, long-term loans with high margins. Other reserves were also consumed and reversed to make institutions' balance sheets and income statements more enjoyable, such as provisions for credit losses. They have been lowered in the course of the decline of bankruptcies, which was only a saving of zombies, and thus profits shown, the substance of which has approximately the character of the profits, which flushed the toxic securitization until 2006 in the income statements of the banks.

However, there are ways to influence the strength of the crash and the speed of recovery. This requires an early strengthening of the equity capital of the banks so that they do not have to be saved from bankruptcy until the crisis. The sums you need after a collapse are three times as high. That's a difference.

Secondly, we need a bank restructuring law that allows for a 50% cost reduction without the double amount of annual savings immediately flowing into severance pay.

Third, we need a market-based 100-day program that would make our real economy more resilient.

But you can bet that nothing will happen. Our political elite prefers to take the oath of blessing after the crash, rather than confessing its failure a few months earlier with the change of course.




And last:



The majority of economists live in a belief system that has won through the symbiosis of politics and chairs in recent decades. This is Keynesianism and its offshoots. Keynesianism provides for the politics of our day what the geocentric view of the world has done for the rulers in the sixteenth century. It provides a narrative that allows politics to raise bread and games, consumerism, to a state ideology. In Keynesianism, this consumerism carries the inconspicuous name "demand".

On the one hand, this theory building provides the foundation for the tax and redistribution state that politics wants because it can thus buy votes, and on the other hand it is fed by a grateful political class. The problem with this theory is that it proves itself again and again in the test of reality as false. This is especially noticeable in monetary policy. For more than 10 years, the ECB has been trying convincingly to generate inflation based on its models by inflating the central bank money stock like a condom in the quality test. With ever-decreasing interest rates, always new bond purchases, more and more panic. The models are provided with regularity with new pipes and valves, which appear to be only partially controllable by the computing power of modern computer. The motto is: "Ours is the firepower, the printing press and the computing power". A few quarters later, you can see that reality has not kept up with the model and is building a new variant.

On the other hand, the representatives of the Austrian School, a minority, are cut off from the fleshpots of the university enterprise of state planning and favoritism. There are the instruments for explaining the disaster for decades before. But because it is always only a minority, to whom the scientific search for truth means more than hanging on the state teat, this group too is small.

But it does not bother me. Because with regard to the reality and the dispute over their explanation applies a word from Ayn Rand: "One is free to ignore the reality. One is free to free one's mind of any focus and to stumble blindly down every path one desires. But one is not free to avoid the abyss that one refuses to see. "

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Skybird

"Wenn schwarze Schwäne Junge kriegen" [...]

That's his theme i was referring to, yes.




(Diese Schwaben. "Neckarbuben", my donkey )

I understand why he predicts a 'crash', Dirk Mueller has said so since years as well. I do not like Krall's connections to the AfD and his bashing the government for all though, after all a lot of banks were not forced by a "socialist" government to bind certain bad "financial packages", they did so out of understandable greed, to make quick money, and f..k the future.

There has never been much farsight when it comes to banks, making a bit of quick money, and then look for another job, or bank asap, before the sword drops.

He behaves like a Helmut Kohl Zombie, "Freedom or Socialism", and tries (AfD politics of course) to destabilize our government as good as possible, with(in) his own means.
A sympathy for Hayek, Mises or Ayn Rand also do not make him that trustworthy imho. He is milking his publicity as good and long as possible of course, and he has some arguments alright.

Still I doubt a crash will happen in 2020, Mueller predicted one for 2018, others earlier. but we will see. Right now we have not even recovered from 2008..

[Skybird]

The crash, the Big One, is inevitable, the question is only how many cruelties and crimes more by states and central banks will precede it.


And mind you, paper money was politically wanted. The guilty ones are polticians. In 1914 and the early 70s, they wanted to pay for their upcoming or running wars that with a robust real currency worth the name "money" would have been impossible to be fought to the end.



Another major guolt factor I have mentione dseverla times as well as Krall above now does: the separation of ownership and responsibility. Managers today are allowed to jump around as they wish, playing their self-enrichment game with money that is not theirs and so they can play without own risk - while the possible gains from a winnign situation they happily proclaim as "theirs". Its a simple fact of life that you care the more for somethign that indeed is yours and that you plan t hand ovr to the next generation in your family, than you care for somethign that is not yours and to which you are not bound in any way. No risk is easier taken than the risk of the others.



Krall also mentions that the state order has become the prey of he corruption of the political parties and their selfish power interests that they put before the national and civil interest. I use to say that every democracy necessarily leads to socialism and leads necessarily to totalitarinaism - becasue sooner or later any socialist order must collapse and can only be enforced then any longer against the will of the people by brute force.



Historyholds many exmaples. The way the eU moves, i criticised that often enough, is towards dictatorial paternalism, and totalitarianism. Right becasue of the reason I here have repeated once again. The overboarding bureaucratization of business by every growing floods of rules and laws and demands for documentation, also illustrate it, so does the streamlining, nudging and manipulation by state-close mainstream media forming the population that polticians want to have: happy sheep that are easy to bribe with the stuff that has been stolen from them just a day before.


The crahs will come, it is inevitable. I only do not dare to nail down the date. Two weeks, three months, four years, i don't know. Could even become a Japanisation of thr situation and many more years of money erosion and plundering savings and punishing. The end will allways be the same: the biggest crash in the history of human civilizations. I would hope I am already dead when it happens. I have no interest at all to witness and live through it.


Thats why I keep my thigns and stuff together, have abandoned banks as far as possible, and live every day as enjoyable and responsible (not adding to the damage) as best as I can, as if it were my last day. Becasue the Big One will not come with long alarms and waiting periods, it instead will come suddenly, with a surprise. And it will be a good old friend: the same crisis that is cooking inside a pressure cooker since several decades already.

[Skybird]

The king is dead, long live the queen.


https://translate.google.de/translat...istine-lagarde

Politicians and central bankers feel like Goethe's sorcerer's apprentice: they will not let go of the ghosts they called. On the contrary, trying to fight the crisis is causing an ever greater problem. You can imagine this as follows: The central banks are pushing the debt balloon under water so that it does not become a problem. Meanwhile, this balloon gets bigger every year and pushes more to the surface. Only by more pressure can he be kept under water, only he inflates the more, the more you push him under the water. At some point, the central bank can not hold him and he shoots with all his might to the top.
With each further rescue action they pump up the ball further and thus lay the basis for the biggest debt crisis of all time. It's a big bet: are they able to (yet) manage to generate high inflation and thus find a somewhat painless path to debt relief or is the bubble bursting?
It is clear in any case that there will be no voluntary exit from the game. Which is why the appointment of French politician Christine Lagarde fits into the picture. The IMF, her previous employer, has produced several studies that show where the journey can go. The ideas range from surprising property taxes, the taxation of cash transactions to the ban on cash (and gold?).
It is undoubted that there is a lot of thought about how to push interest rates even deeper into negative territory without the savers being able to flee the system. Since this would not be enough, the next big step is being prepared in parallel: the direct financing of states by the central banks. Presumably justified by the urgent fight against climate change.
Only consistent. We have maneuvered ourselves into a dead end for decades. Now the final starts. Exit open, but the loser is clear: the saver.

Its clear, still it is frightening. By my savings today and the economic logic from 15 years ago, I should have been able to live of them for 30-35 years. Now I hope for 20 years at best, but I am not certain that some sudden coup landed by the amok-running politeska will not reduce my financial life expectancy to even just 15, maybe even just 10 years. Everything is possible with these criminals.
No wickedness too evil for it not to be done.

[Skybird]

"Finally, for those curious if the authorities will stop at anything to destroy the currency and send rates to even more negative levels if it means kicking the can on a global, populist uprising, by just a few months, weeks or days, here is the answer: "We should be happier to have a job than to have our savings protected," said Lagarde."


This woman is more dangeorus - and as brainless - as a ton of nitroglycerin in free fall down to a rocky bottom. How she ever managed to successfully claim the reputation of being an econiomic expert and a financial authority, escapes me. She is just a politician and lawyer for social law, without formal professional training in these things: she is neither a trained econonomist, nor a banker or fiscal expert.



https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/...b-have-savings

[Skybird]

Wiener Zeitung, 16.12.2019, writes:

>> Europe is a very special region: just a little more than 5 percent of the planet's people make up a good 25 percent of global economic output, but at the same time consume 50 percent of all social benefits in the world. In other words, Europeans spend twice as much on welfare spending as would equal their economic capacity. <<

[Skybird]

Everybody involved in stocks, papers and holding a bank account with money on it, should be aware of these arguments:

https://translate.google.de/translat..._11622575.html

The authors confirm some of my own long-held convictions: that especially ETFs are a bubble-maker, that stocks are hopelessly overvalued, that state bonds are toxic, and that the implict national debts are neck-breakers.

My guts feeling says: Not anotherf ull ten years again before the storm hits us in full. I even think: in five years at the latest. I hope I made the right choices and can limit my losses. Loosing we all will. Many of us will be ruined, many people will see their pensions and reserves for their days of age being demolished. Our own governments then will rip off their masks and show us that they always have been and especially then still are our worst enemies. And the Trumps and Macronmans and Merkels and Super-Uschis and Gangster-Lagardes will have no answers and will fall back to their last line of defence: brute force and state violence.

In the event of impending bankruptcy of a systemically important bank, customer funds can be withdrawn or converted into bank shares at a fixed nominal value and the nominal value can be reduced to 0! An objection procedure is excluded. Even a lawsuit has no suspensive effect. All of the shareholder's claims are deemed to have been »fulfilled«, and forever (Section 99 paras. 1 - 3 SAG).
Even if the bank recovers, there is no going back. In an emergency, the following must be liable: All private and corporate customers who make deposits from € 100,000 with a »systemically important« bank. Affected are: savings book, sight deposits, fixed deposits and call money , savings contracts (also capital-forming benefits), registered bonds and temporarily parked liquidity in the securities account as well as the shareholders of the systemically important bank.
Who actually thinks that money in the account belongs to you is naive. Deposit protection may still apply if a smaller bank tips over, but certainly not if a medium-sized or large bank such as Deutsche Bank goes bankrupt. The banks' pots are currently filled with 6.9 billion euros, which is just 0.4 percent of the required deposit! By 2024, there should be 14 billion. This is offset by over 2 trillion euros in account balances. A hot bet.

Fridays-for-Future kiddies will be surprised to learn that it will not be climate death destroying their lives, but their own economic incompetence and the collapse of what they claim to be unimportant: the health of the finance system and its depending economy.


Its frightening what is coming.

[STEED]

^I have no doubts that this on going mess, care to note I said on going unlike the media who will report it as new will be double on the 2008 crash and then the next one after that will be triple and so on. The destruction of paper money is on the way and chipping is going to happen. Question is when and that depends on those pulling the strings.

[Skybird]

This month its 70 years of "Human Action", one of the most profound economic and social-philosophic writings ever.

https://www.fff.org/explore-freedom/...ing-relevance/

The financial and economic glovla situation would be much bettert today if instead of FEDs and ECBs we would have a more spread understanding of this basic work.

Freedom needs responsibility. Responsibility must mean liability, accountability. But the "politicisation" of the FIAT currency aimed at and has acchieved the decoupling of decision-making and liability. Intellectual supermen and wonderwomen claim they can centrally plan better what people want and do and decide and desire and what their preferences are and will be like in the future, than people know it themselves. And here is were the deep-rooting and fundamental relevance of "Human Action" lies. It turns the view of the homo economicus from its mentally deranged head back on its feet.

Extremely recommended reading. And frighteningly actual. For me, this classic is the best buddy of Hayek's "The Road to Serfdom".

[Skybird]

Now credit cards must be registered online by a third party provider before the cna be used in onöline transactions. Arguments in how far this should raise security levls: none. I think it is about milking coins for nothing (by the third party provider who doe snto do this for free and gets paid by any side), and enforcing from cradit card holders that they compromsie their data for big data interests.


The safety of the credit card information pool by said third party provider: well, you can hope that it will be good weather tomorrow. Maybe it will be good, maybe not.That compares, and that is all you will ever get. The long history of massive data breaches in past years leave no argument to be optimistic. One thing is certain: this data pool will attract an awesome lot of cmrinal attention, and attention by intel services. In other words: the data will be stolen and/or abused. That is a 100% certainty.



https://translate.google.de/translat...eimlicher.html


Another argument for me why I do not want a credit card again and see the whole business as highly dubious and suspect. So much for a previously considered trip to Sweden next year...

[Skybird]

If even Greece now gets away with issuing negative yielding debts, then this is a signal that somethign very serious is going terribly wrong.

Mind you, by definition, there can not be something like negative interests". By definition and meaning, interests always must and can only be positive, if they are not, then they are no interests at all, but fees, taxes, whatever you call it - but no interests.


https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fi...-yielding-debt

[Skybird]

https://www.zerohedge.com/commoditie...fiat-one-chart


This meets the time window of Draghi leaving and Lagarde going into the ECB boss room. Lagarde during her time at the CF pressed studies and appers about prohibiting cahs money, engfocing penlty fees on the use of cash money, prohibiting private possession of gold... She is no econiomic expert, no fincial expert, but a career socialist andcareer politican only.


I am really worried since the day it was announced she would take over the ECB. Draghi was bad. She will become much worse. I fear a criminnal onslaught on private savings second to none before in history, for this woman is no only not competent in understandfing money, but also ruthless and unscrupolous. The germans were almost enthusiastic about Lagarde's call to the ECB. Only shows how little most German understand - nobody in Europe has to fear as much of her, than the Germans. She would already have massacred European savers if only at the ICF she could have had her will. As head of the ECB, it will be easier for her to get it, and she will have more support channels available, politically. Frightening.

[Skybird]

Crowdfunded movie in the making, about one of the most outstanding thinkers, and social philosophers and economists of the last century.


http://www.misesthemovie.com/





Usually referred to as just an economist, he in fact was much more, a social thinker and a real Universalgelehrter (polymath?). Something he had in common with another giant in this branch, Hayek. Mise' base work "Human Action" impacted in my thinking world like a nuclear bomb. Because that is what all economy grounds on and results in: human action - and its infinitely diverse motives.


I donated.