Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Jimbuna]

Kremlin’s goal is to seize and hold Donbas by summer, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine

The strategic goal of the Russian Federation is to occupy the key settlements of the Donetsk region in the near future and to seize Donetsk and Luhansk regions by the summer.

As reported by Censor.NET with reference to Interfax-Ukraine, this was stated by the Deputy Chief of the Main Operational Department of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Brigadier General Oleksii Hromov.

"Russia's strategic goals have not changed - in the near term, it is important for the Kremlin to capture key settlements in the Donetsk region, and in the future to capture and hold the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine by the summer," he said. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3401629

Russia will not win this war. All of Spain with Ukraine, - Prime Minister Sanchez

The Prime Minister of Spain, Pedro Sanchez, who is currently visiting Ukraine, said that Russia will not win the war.

He announced this on Twitter, Censor.NET reports.

"Bucha and Irpin show the wounds and scars of Putin's barbarism. Russia will not win this war. All of Spain is with Ukraine," he emphasized. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3401639

West’s supply of ammunition to Ukraine at current level is "insufficient", - Stoltenberg

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg considers the Western supply of ammunition "unstable". In addition, the war is turning into a "battle for logistics", so the allies of Ukraine must increase production.

He stated this in a conversation with Sky News, Censor.NET informs.

"The only way to maintain our support for Ukraine is to do what we've been trying to do now, which is to work with the defense industry to make sure that allies sign long-term contracts," Stoltenberg said.

However, he insists that NATO will support Ukraine "as much as necessary."

"We cannot allow Putin to win in Ukraine - it will be a tragedy for Ukrainians, but it will be dangerous for us," he says. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3401645

Government of Czech Republic approved further supply of military aid to Ukraine

The Czech Republic will continue to provide military aid to Ukraine. Equipment will be sent from warehouses.

This was reported by The Guardian, Censor.NET informs.

Czech Defense Minister Yana Chernokhova did not provide details on the specific equipment that the Czech Republic is supplying to Ukraine.

At the same time, she noted that the country sent Ukraine 38 tanks, 55 armored vehicles, four aircraft and 13 self-propelled howitzers from its military reserves. The Czech Republic also sent larger shipments from private companies. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3401667

[Jimbuna]

USA seeks to strengthen sanctions against Russian Federation, - Ministry of Finance

The US is working to strengthen sanctions against Russia.

As reported by Censor.NET with reference to Interfax-Ukraine, this was stated by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

"We strive to strengthen sanctions and solve the problem of violation of existing measures," she said.

According to her, the USA is still focused on blocking the Russian Federation's access to goods needed for the military industry.

In addition, Yellen expressed hope that the parties will be able to extend the agreement concluded in 2022 in Istanbul, which allows the export of grain from Ukraine. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3401673

There are not enough troops in Belarus to attack Ukraine, - General Staff

There are not enough troops on the territory of Belarus to form strike groups and carry out an offensive against Ukraine.

Oleksiy Hromov, deputy chief of the Main Operational Department of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, stated this at a briefing, Censor.NET reports with reference to Liga.net.

Hromov noted that Minsk continues to provide its territory for the training of Russian troops.

"It should be noted that the number of personnel, weapons and military equipment within the grouping of troops of the so-called allied state is insufficient to form strike groups and carry out an offensive from the territory of Belarus to the territory of Ukraine," Hromov said.

At the same time, he noted that the grouping of the Russian Federation on the territory of Belarus consists of newly formed units or those that suffered significant losses and were supplemented.

"Meanwhile, a significant part of the forces and means that were on the territory of Belarus as allied forces have already been moved to participate in hostilities on the territory of Ukraine, and new units are arriving to replace them," Hromov said.

He noted that the introduction of the death penalty for treason in Belarus may mean pressure from the authorities on the power bloc in the event that dictator Oleksandr Lukashenko decides to directly participate in the war against Ukraine. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3401685

Ukraine can refuse gas imports already this year - head of "Naftogaz" Chernyshov

This year, for the first time in the history of independence, Ukraine may refuse to import gas.

Oleksiy Chernyshov, head of Naftogaz JSC, told about this, Censor.NET reports with reference to RBC-Ukraine.

According to him, for this, it is necessary for "Naftogaz" to increase production by 8%, and private companies - by 16% against the background of the ban on fuel exports.

The attempt to abandon gas imports will be the first in the country's history since independence in 1991.

The International Monetary Fund calculated at the end of last year that Ukraine should purchase 5 billion cubic meters of gas in 2023. "Naftogaz" expects the same in the worst case scenario, Chernyshov said.

In recent months, JSC imported less gas than planned. According to Chernyshov, the company purchased about half of the planned 2 billion cubic meters from the end of October.

He called the national gas producers' efforts to maintain production a "heroic act," along with household discipline. Warm weather also helped Ukraine survive the winter.

"Increasing domestic production is our strategic goal, and we have to deal with it ourselves. This is not just a matter of business - it is a matter of survival and independence of Ukraine," said Chernyshov.

According to him, the situation that developed this winter affected Naftogaz's plan to abandon gas imports, although he did not rule out that it may still be necessary to purchase 2 billion cubic meters of gas.

"But this is not our main plan," Chernyshov said, noting that Ukraine must rely on itself. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3401674

[Skybird]

Neue Zürcher Zeitung:
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Far from over - how Western security circles assess Russia's military options in Ukraine

The war is entering its second year. Weapons supplies from the U.S. and Europe have ensured Ukraine's survival so far. The question is how long the West can and will continue to help. Putin seems to be able to continue the war for a long time.

On the anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, we assess Ukraine's and Russia's military capabilities and resources for the war to continue. In this article, we analyze the situation in Russia and its goals; we will address those of the Ukrainians on Monday.

A year ago, the Russian invasion of Ukraine began. Since then, the West has been supporting the defenders with weapons. During his visit to Kiev on Monday, U.S. President Joe Biden announced more military aid worth half a billion dollars. After decades of rejecting arms exports to war zones, even Germany is now supplying anti-aircraft systems, howitzers, battle tanks and armored personnel carriers.

With the help of Western weapons, Ukraine succeeded last year in liberating part of the territory occupied by Russia. Since then, a grueling war of attrition has raged with high casualties on both sides. The number of casualties is estimated at over one hundred thousand each. The battlefields across the country are littered with the wreckage of thousands of tanks, vehicles and guns.

Now the war is entering its second year, with no end in sight. Ukraine continues to depend on Western aid for its very existence. Hopes that Russia would be permanently weakened militarily after last year's successful Ukrainian offensives have so far not been borne out on the battlefield. On the contrary, according to Western security circles, there are many indications that Russia will be able to wage this war for a long time to come. Putin is targeting not only Ukraine, but also its "center of gravity" (its source of strength) - the West - and its will to continue waging the war with all its consequences.

Images remind of the First World War

There is one image that vividly symbolizes Russian warfare in Ukraine. A field littered with shell holes near the heavily contested town of Bachmut is strewn with corpses. The image is reminiscent of footage from the Western Front in 1916. The fallen are believed to be mercenaries from the Russian Wagner Group, killed in artillery fire. For months the Russian military has been throwing new waves against the Ukrainian positions. On the 70-kilometer front around Bachmut, the Russians are said to have recently lost between 500 and 1,500 soldiers or mercenaries a day without making significant gains in terrain.

Other sections of the front are also largely at a standstill. Putin's attack is stalled. Yet it does not look as if he sees himself at a critical juncture. Rather, according to European security circles, he can continue the war for a long time. The NZZ has government documents from February of this year that give an impression of how disillusioned the situation is assessed in Berlin and other European capitals. Four points can be deduced from these documents.

1. the Russians are getting used to the war

A year into the war, it is obvious what Vladimir Putin is after: control of the "strategic apron," a broad-based confrontation with the West, and consolidation of his dictatorship at home. There is no doubt, the authors write in a document from German security circles, that he really wanted the war against Ukraine. He still believes he cannot lose it. Even if there were setbacks on the battlefield, such as the retreat from Kiev and Kherson, in the self-image of the Russian power apparatus defeats exist only on the opposing side.

The war set Russia back socially and economically by decades. Putin accepts this, and the "Russian population, practiced in political apathy," accepts it. His calculation is that society will get used to the war and become immune to Western influences. In this way, he can proceed ever more ruthlessly without fearing resistance at home. "It is clear that under the present conditions he will not be prepared for any peace that will carry into the future," write the German security experts. Withdrawal from occupied and annexed territories is unacceptable to him, they say. He does not see himself under pressure to end the war, either internally or externally, in the foreseeable future.

Putin's goals in Ukraine are not limited to the country. He is concerned with continued domination and dominance in a geographic area where state borders have no relevance, according to German analysts. By that, they presumably mean the territory of the former Soviet Union, whose collapse Putin once called "the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century."

The economic, financial, human and material resources for the war, they continue, would last for several more years. A collapse of the Russian economy with high unemployment and supply shortages is not foreseeable. For the people, the effects of the sanctions remain bearable; their grief is directed against the EU and the West, not against the regime. Putin is taking a high risk with the war, but this risk is "far from exhausted" for him.

And even in the event that he should come under personal pressure and there were forces in Russia that wanted to eliminate him, the German authors do not formulate an optimistic outlook. Somewhat circumstantially, they write: "A regime change from above and adherence to unconditional confrontation with the West seems, in all this, much more likely than a system change from below."

2. enough soldiers, qualitatively sufficient weapons

At the operational-tactical level, Ukraine is currently in a stalemate. After the successful Ukrainian offensives in the summer and fall, Russian forces have managed to stabilize the front. Mobilizations have been the main reason for this. In the meantime, Russia is said to have a similar troop strength in the war zone as Ukraine, with around 500,000 soldiers, albeit much less well trained and equipped.

In addition, there are large material reserves. These include thousands of battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, most of which are outdated but still operational. The Russians are also unlikely to run out of ammunition anytime soon. Military experts such as Austrian General Staff Officer Markus Reisner point out that Russian stocks have shrunk considerably, but some are still at a high level. This is evident, they say, in the artillery, whose ammunition stockpile Reisner estimates at 10 million shells. In addition, Putin has converted Russian industry to a war economy. According to Reisner, the annual output of artillery shells is now 3.4 million.

The NZZ also has a paper that shows how the equipment of Putin's army is assessed in NATO. "Contrary to a widespread narrative, the Russian armed forces do not primarily lack material of sufficient quality," it says. Rather, the Russians lack the "crucial enabling factors of effective military doctrine, functioning logistics and meaningful operational planning to achieve higher military effectiveness." In other words: If the Russians used their troops and materiel more wisely, they could be far more successful on the battlefield.

In return, they already have an advantage at the strategic level. This is borne out by British analyses of the effectiveness of Russian air strikes. According to them, the attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure now achieved a "strategic effect." By this is meant that the destruction has a detrimental effect on the Ukrainians' ability to wage war. Without electricity, for example, weapons factories, repair shops, food producers, and military hospitals cannot operate, or can only operate to a limited extent. When Russia again fired hundreds of missiles, drones, and cruise missiles at Ukraine on February 10, it was the thirteenth large-scale attack of its kind.

A memo on a recent NATO meeting indicates that Russia currently conducts "a large-scale attack with 500 to 600 missiles" every two weeks. Ukraine has admittedly adapted to this, recently intercepting 90 percent of the drones and 75 percent of the cruise missiles. Russia, however, is likely to continue the massive airstrikes regardless. Military experts such as Markus Reisner report that Iran continues to supply the Putin regime with missiles and drones on a continuous basis. As evidence, he cites the flight data of Russian transport aircraft on their way from Tehran to Moscow, the usual route of Iranian arms deliveries. They can be found regularly on the Internet.

3 The Elites Exercise "Destructive Creativity


In the past, foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, in addition to Putin, called the shots in Russian security policy. That is over. Lavrov and his ministry have been marginalized. Generals like Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov, as well as hardliners like Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, now call the shots. The authors of a new study by German security circles write that anyone who wants to rise in the Putin system or maintain his power can now only achieve this "through the prism of war". To do so, he would have to "display destructive creativity."

The German experts' further description of Russia's internal constitution also sounds gloomy and dystopian: Loyalty to the regime today is expressed through proposals for harsh action against the remnants of free expression of opinion. Anyone who opposes such proposals is considered a traitor. The country is radicalizing, and the question of loyalty and betrayal is becoming increasingly important. As was once the case in the Soviet Union, there is no shortage of "zealots," from Duma deputies to school principals, who blame the West for all evils. The core of Russian state ideology is the demonization of the West. This "anti-sapadism" (Sapad; German: Westen) has been practiced for a long time, but now the West is actually "portrayed as a threatening power that sends its weapons - even tanks with crosses - directly against Russian soldiers and virtually walls people in with sanctions and visa denials."

Especially among older people in the Russian provinces, the anti-Western messages catch on. They are particularly receptive to Putin's narrative of the "Great Patriotic War." This narrative is still the most effective unifying bond among Russians today. According to this narrative, the West is waging a war of annihilation against Russia, and its opponents are "Nazis. However, the German security experts summarize that for the majority of the population, food prices are the decisive factor. Although many people are now directly affected by partial mobilization, casualties and injuries, they continue to behave "basically apolitically. "The majority adapts its own behavior to what cannot be changed anyway, especially when it takes place many time zones away."

4. Putin's Russia is not isolated internationally

In their analysis, the German security experts point to an aspect that has received comparatively little attention from Western public opinion. In the two General Assemblies of the United Nations held so far, a large part of the members had condemned the war in Ukraine and called on Russia to end its aggression. At the same time, however, China, India and 33 other countries representing a majority of the world's population abstained from voting. Putin's Russia is thus receiving significantly more help than just from its direct supporters Belarus, North Korea and Iran.

Russia's war of aggression quickly condemned by many countries
Vote in the U.N. General Assembly condemning Russia's aggression in Ukraine on March 2.


More to the point, German analysts suggest some skepticism about a lasting global rejection of the Russian attack. Among the countries that condemned the war, they write, are states that see Russia as an occasionally useful and not overly threatening partner. These were states, they said, that were "tired of Western demarches" and wanted "the economic consequences of the distant war between Europeans off their backs." These included Brazil and South Africa, as well as other G-20 countries. In conclusion, "Moscow can hope to have time on its side in international politics, and it will act perfidiously to increase indirect pressure on us."
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[Jimbuna]

[Dargo]

HOW PUTIN BLUNDERED INTO UKRAINE — THEN DOUBLED DOWN
At about 1am on February 24 last year, Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s
foreign minister, received a troubling phone call.

After spending months building up a more than 100,000-strong invasion
force on the border with Ukraine, Vladimir Putin had given the
go-ahead to invade.

The decision caught Lavrov completely by surprise. Just days earlier,
the Russian president had polled his security council for their
opinions on recognising two separatist statelets in the Donbas, an
industrial border region in Ukraine, at an excruciatingly awkward
televised session — but had left them none the wiser about his true
intentions.

Keeping Lavrov in the dark was not unusual for Putin, who tended to
concentrate his foreign policy decision-making among a handful of
close confidants, even when it undermined Russia’s diplomatic
efforts.

On this occasion, the phone call made Lavrov one of the very few
people who had any knowledge of the plan ahead of time. The
Kremlin’s senior leadership all found out about the invasion only
when they saw Putin declare a “special military operation” on
television that morning.

Later that day, several dozen oligarchs gathered at the Kremlin for a
meeting arranged only the day before, aware that the invasion would
trigger western sanctions that could destroy their empires.
“Everyone was completely losing it,” says a person who attended
the event.

While they waited, one of the oligarchs spied Lavrov exiting another
meeting and pressed him for an explanation about why Putin had decided
to invade. Lavrov had no answer: the officials he was there to see in
the Kremlin had known less about it than he did.

Stunned, the oligarch asked Lavrov how Putin could have planned such
an enormous invasion in such a tiny circle — so much so that most of
the senior officials at the Kremlin, Russia’s economic cabinet and
its business elite had not believed it was even possible.

“He has three advisers,” Lavrov replied, according to the
oligarch. “Ivan the Terrible. Peter the Great. And Catherine the
Great.”

Under Putin’s invasion plan, Russia’s troops were to seize Kyiv
within a matter of days in a brilliant, comparatively bloodless
blitzkrieg.

Instead, the war has proved to be a quagmire of historic proportions
for Russia. A year on, Putin’s invasion has claimed well over
200,000 dead and injured among Russia’s armed forces, according to
US and European officials; depleted its stock of tanks, artillery and
cruise missiles; and cut the country off from global financial markets
and western supply chains.

Nor has the fighting in Ukraine brought Putin any closer to his
vaguely defined goals of “demilitarising” and “de-Nazifying”
Kyiv. Though Russia now controls 17 per cent of Ukraine’s
internationally recognised territory, it has abandoned half of the
land it seized in the war’s early weeks — including a humiliating
retreat from Kherson, the only provincial capital under its control,
just weeks after Putin attempted to annex it.

But as the war rumbles on with no end in sight, Putin has given no
indication he intends to back down on his war efforts.

At his state-of-the-union address on Tuesday, Putin insisted the war
was “about the very existence of our country” and said the west
had forced him to invade Ukraine. “They’re the ones who started
the war. We are using force to stop it,” he said.

Even as the huge cost of the invasion to Russia becomes apparent to
him, Putin is more determined than ever to see it through, people who
know him say.

“The idea was never for hundreds of thousands of people to die.
It’s all gone horribly wrong,” a former senior Russian official
says. With the initial plan in tatters, Putin is searching for new
rationales to justify the war effort, insisting he had no choice but
to pursue the invasion by any means necessary, current and former
officials say.

“He tells people close to him, ‘It turns out we were completely
unprepared. The army is a mess. Our industry is a mess. But it’s
good that we found out about it this way, rather than when Nato
invades us,’” the former official adds.

The Financial Times spoke to six longtime Putin confidants as well as
people involved in Russia’s war effort, and current and former
senior officials in the west and Ukraine for this account of how Putin
blundered his way into the invasion — then doubled down rather than
admit his mistake. All of them spoke on the condition of anonymity to
discuss sensitive matters.

The people who know Putin describe a leader who has become even more
isolated since the start of the war. “Stalin was a villain, but a
good manager, because he couldn’t be lied to. But nobody can tell
Putin the truth,” says one. “People who don’t trust anyone start
trusting a very small number of people who lie to them.”

‘IF YOU DON’T AGREE WITH IT, YOU CAN LEAVE’

Last year was not the first time Putin had withheld plans of an
invasion from close advisers. When Russia seized Crimea from Ukraine
in 2014, he did not inform his own security council — instead on one
occasion gaming out the peninsula’s annexation with his defence
minister, Sergei Shoigu, and three top security officials all night
until 7am.

Initially, the advisers urged Putin against sending troops into
Crimea, according to a former senior Russian official and a former
senior US official. “Putin said, ‘This is a historic moment. If
you don’t agree with it, you can leave,’” the former Russian
official recalls.

When the west, fearful of escalating tensions to a point of no return
and jeopardising Europe’s economic ties with Russia, responded with
only a slap on the wrist, Putin was convinced he had made the right
decision, according to several people who know the president.

In the years after the 2014 invasion, Putin’s inner circle began to
shrink further as he became increasingly consumed with what he saw as
growing western threats to Russia’s security, the people say. His
isolation deepened when the Covid-19 pandemic began in 2020: for fear
they could infect a germaphobic Putin, even top officials were forced
to spend weeks at a time quarantining for a personal audience.

One of the few people to spend extended time with Putin was his friend
Yuri Kovalchuk, a former physicist who in the 1990s owned a dacha
adjoining the future president’s in the countryside outside St
Petersburg.

The secretive Kovalchuk — a banker and media mogul who the US says
manages Putin’s personal finances — almost never speaks in public
and did not reply to a request for comment.

People who know him say he shares a passion for Russian imperial
revanchism with his older brother Mikhail, a physicist whose
conspiracy theory-laden rants about US plans to develop super-soldiers
and “ethnic weapons” have, on occasion, popped up later in
Putin’s speeches.

During the height of the pandemic, Putin was largely cut off from
comparatively liberal, western-minded confidants who had previously
had his ear. Instead he spent the first few months in his residence at
Valdai, a bucolic town on a lake in northern Russia, essentially on
lockdown with the younger Kovalchuk, who inspired Putin to think of
his historic mission to assert Russia’s greatness, much as Peter the
Great had.

“He really believes all the stuff he says about sacrality and Peter
the Great. He thinks he will be remembered like Peter,” a former
senior official says.

Increasingly, Putin became fixated on Ukraine as his relations soured
with its energetic young president Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

One of Zelenskyy’s early moves was to curb the influence of Viktor
Medvedchuk, a close friend of Putin’s who headed the largest
opposition party in parliament. Whereas former president Petro
Poroshenko had used Medvedchuk as a crucial go-between with Moscow,
Zelenskyy’s team sought other intermediaries in the belief that his
influence on Putin had begun to wane.

But as Putin began drawing up plans for a possible invasion,
Medvedchuk insisted that Ukrainians would greet Russia’s forces with
open arms.

One part of the plan involved Viktor Yanukovych, a former president
who has been in Russian exile since fleeing the 2014 revolution
against him. He was to deliver a video message conferring legitimacy
on Medvedchuk — and anointing him to rule Ukraine with Russia’s
backing.

The vision was starkly at odds with political realities in Ukraine,
where the pro-Russian minority that Medvedchuk represented was vastly
outnumbered by those who despised him for his ties to Moscow. But it
proved seductive for Putin, who authorised payments through
Medvedchuk’s party to pay off local collaborators.

There was plenty of scepticism in Moscow. “If Medvedchuk says it’s
raining, you need to look out of the window — it’ll be sunny,”
says another former senior Russian official. “You have polls, you
have the secret services — how can you do anything serious based on
what Medvedchuk says?”

However, his assessment was backed up by the Federal Security Service,
or FSB, the successor agency to the KGB, which assured Putin victory
was certain — and paid large sums in bribes to officials in Ukraine
in the hope that this would guarantee success.

“The FSB had built a whole system of telling the boss what he wanted
to hear. There were huge budgets given out and corruption at every
level,” a western intelligence official says. “You tell the right
story up top and you skim off a bit for yourself.”

Dissenting voices in the SVR, Russia’s foreign intelligence agency,
and Russia’s general staff attempted to raise doubts. At the
security council meeting three days before the invasion, even Nikolai
Patrushev, security council secretary and Putin’s longest-standing
and most hawkish ally, suggested giving diplomacy another chance.

“He knew what a bad state the army was in and told Putin as much,”
a person close to the Kremlin says.

But just as he had in 2014, Putin overruled them, insisting he was
better informed.

“Putin was overconfident,” a former senior US official says. “He
knows better than his advisers just the way Hitler knew better than
his generals.”

The invasion began to unravel almost immediately after Putin set it
into motion. Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the general staff, had
drawn up a plan to seize the Hostomel airfield outside Kyiv, giving
Russian elite paratrooper squadrons a platform from which to attack
Zelenskyy’s government headquarters.

Some of Medvedchuk’s collaborators worked as spotters for the
advancing Russian forces, painting markings on buildings and highways
to direct the invaders to key locations. Others joined in the attack
on the government quarter. In southern Ukraine, they helped Russia
capture a large swath of territory including Kherson with little to no
resistance.

Most of Medvedchuk’s network, however, simply took the money and
ran, refusing to join in the invasion — or went straight to
Ukrainian authorities and warned them of the instructions they had
been given, according to a senior Ukrainian official and former US and
Russian officials.

Prewar predictions that Ukraine’s army would collapse had largely
been based on the assumption Russia’s air force would quickly
establish control of Ukraine’s skies.

Instead, amid widespread disarray among the invaders, Russia’s army
shot down a number of its own aircraft in the early days of the
invasion. As a result, it ran out of pilots with experience of combat
operations involving ground forces who were also prepared to fly,
according to two western officials and a Ukrainian official.

“It may not have been double digits, but it’s more than one or
two” Russian aircraft shot down by friendly fire, says the former
senior US official. “There was a lot of fratricide.”

He adds: “They may not have had pilots with combat experience who
were willing to fly over Ukraine and risk their necks in that crazy
environment.”

Vadym Skibitsky, deputy head of Ukrainian military intelligence, adds:
“It happened. From artillery units, from tanks, and we even saw it
from our intercepts of their conversations. They shot down their own
helicopters and they shot down their own planes.”

On the ground, Russia’s advances came at the price of huge
casualties and did not help it capture any major cities apart from
Kherson. By the end of March, the invading forces were in such a poor
state that they withdrew from most of central and north-eastern
Ukraine, which it portrayed as a “gesture of goodwill”.

The brilliant plan had proved a failure.

“Russia screwed up,” says Skibitsky. “Gerasimov initially
didn’t want to go in from all sides like he did. But the FSB and
everyone else convinced him everyone was waiting for him to show up
and there wouldn’t be any resistance.”

‘A UNIQUE WAR IN WORLD HISTORY’

As the consequences of his invasion became clear, Putin searched for a
scapegoat to hold responsible for the intelligence blunders
underpinning it. That person was Sergei Beseda, the head of the
FSB’s fifth directorate, which is responsible for foreign operations
and had laid the groundwork for the invasion by paying off Ukrainian
collaborators, according to two western officials.

Initially, Beseda was placed under house arrest, according to the
officials. His time in the doghouse, however, did not last long. Weeks
later, US officials arrived for a meeting on bilateral issues with
their Russian counterparts wondering, after news of Beseda’s
detention leaked to the Russian media, whether he would turn up and
how the Russians might explain where he was.

Instead, Beseda walked in and said, paraphrasing Mark Twain: “You
know, the rumours of my demise are greatly exaggerated,” according
to the former US official.

Beseda’s quick comeback demonstrated what advisers see as some of
Putin’s biggest weaknesses. The Russian president prizes loyalty
over competence; is obsessive about secrecy to a fault; and presides
over a bureaucratic culture where his underlings tell him what he
wants to hear, according to people who know him.

The steady drumbeat of propaganda around the war and Putin’s demands
for loyalty from the elite have only increased the incentive for
advisers to tell him what he wants to hear, the people say.

“He’s of sound mind. He’s reasonable. He’s not crazy. But
nobody can be an expert on everything. They need to be honest with him
and they are not,” another longtime Putin confidant says. “The
management system is a huge problem. It creates big gaps in his
knowledge and the quality of the information he gets is poor.”

For many in the elite, the stream of lies is a survival tactic: most
of Putin’s presidential administration and economic cabinet have
told friends they oppose the war but feel they are powerless to do
anything about it. “It’s really a unique war in world history,
when all the elite is against it,” says a former senior official.

A small number, including former climate special representative
Anatoly Chubais, have quietly resigned. One former senior official who
now heads a major state-run company went so far as to apply for an
Israeli passport while still in his post, and started making plans to
leave the country, according to two people close to him.

As the war continues to sputter, the scale of Russia’s
miscalculation has begun to dawn on Putin, prompting him to seek out
more information from people at lower levels, people who know him say.
A cohort of ultranationalist bloggers who are critical of the military
establishment have held at least two closed-door meetings with Putin
since last summer; some were guests of honour at a ceremony to annex
the four Ukrainian provinces in September.

On occasion, Putin has used information from his informal channels to
trip up senior officials in public. Last month, Denis Manturov, a
deputy prime minister, told Putin the government had signed contracts
with Russian aviation factories to produce new aircraft, one of the
industries worst hit by the difficulty of procuring components under
the sanctions. Putin replied: “I know the factories don’t have
contracts, the directors told me. What are you playing the fool for?
When will the contracts be ready? Here’s what I’m talking about:
the factory directors say they don’t have contracts. And you’re
telling me it’s all on paper.”

Putin’s newfound scepticism, however, is limited by his
unwillingness to admit the invasion was a mistake in the first place,
the people say. Some of the liberal officials who oppose the war have
attempted to convince him to end it by pointing out the economic
damage the sanctions are likely to wreak on Russia’s economy.

But Putin tells them “he has already factored in the discounts”,
another former senior Russian official says. “He says, ‘We pay a
huge price, I get it. We underestimated how difficult it could be.’
But how can you convince a crazy man? His brain will collapse if he
realises it was a mistake,” the person adds. “He doesn’t trust
anyone.”

Asked about the discrepancy between the defence ministry’s
statements and complaints from fighters at the front about poor
equipment in December, Putin paraphrased a character from his
favourite TV show, the Soviet espionage drama _Seventeen Moments of
Spring_: “You can’t trust anyone. Only me.” Then he chuckled.

EXISTENTIAL FIGHT CONTINUES

Putin’s state-of-the-union address on Tuesday demonstrated his
determination to “solve the tasks before us step by step” as he
insisted Russia’s war would go on until a victorious end.

The remarks underscored how existential the fight has become for Putin
as the threat he sees from a hostile west consumes him. Putin spent
comparatively little time discussing Ukraine itself, instead focusing
his ire on the US, which he accused of trying to “destroy” Russia
and use “national traitors” to break it up.

The speech marked his first return to nuclear rhetoric since last
autumn, when he made veiled warnings to “use all the means at our
disposal” in defence of Russia’s conquests and suggested Russia
could carry out a nuclear first strike.

Those threats worried western countries sufficiently that the US, UK,
and France, Nato’s three nuclear powers, delivered a joint message
to Russia vowing to retaliate with conventional weapons if Putin
decided to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, according to the former US
and Russian officials.

According to two people close to the Kremlin, Putin has already gamed
out the possibility of using a nuclear weapon in Ukraine and has come
to the conclusion that even a limited strike would do nothing to
benefit Russia.

“He has no reason to press the button. What is the point of bombing
Ukraine? You detonate a tactical nuke on Zaporizhzhia,” says a
former Russian official, referring to the Ukrainian-held capital of a
province Putin has claimed for Russia. “Everything is totally
irradiated, you can’t go in there, and it’s supposedly Russia
anyway, so what was the point?”

Instead, Putin said Russia would suspend its participation in New
Start, the last remaining arms treaty with the US governing the
countries’ nuclear arsenals. The suspension was the most concrete
step Putin has taken on the escalation ladder since the war began:
Jens Stoltenberg, Nato’s secretary-general, said “the whole arms
control architecture has been dismantled.”

This time, however, Putin made no threats to actually use nuclear
weapons — which analysts interpreted as a sign he had begun to
realise Russia’s limitations.

“The war’s been going on for a year. Putin has been saying he’s
fighting the west, not Ukraine, for a long time. You can’t just keep
talking about it, you need to take steps to demonstrate something
tangible,” says Abbas Gallyamov, a former Putin speechwriter.
“Otherwise in his paradigm it’s going to look like the west is
wiping the floor with Russia and [he] can’t say anything in
response.”

Putin’s calculation, people close to the Kremlin say, is that Russia
is more committed to the war than the west is to Ukraine, and
resilient enough to see out the economic pain. Senior Republicans have
openly questioned how long the US can go on supporting Ukraine to the
same extent and the party retains a realistic chance of capturing the
White House in 2024.

In ramping up military support for Ukraine, western officials are
mindful anything less than a crushing defeat for Russia risks failing
to deal with the problem.

“We need to ask ourselves: How do we want to this end up? Do we want
to end up in a situation when Putin will survive and he will have more
time?” says an EU foreign minister. “Something like the lull
between the first and second world war.”

Putin, by contrast, is betting that he can see through that strategic
turbulence, people who know him say. Instead of insisting that most
Russians are unaffected by the war, as the Kremlin did in its early
months when life largely went on as normal, Putin has adopted
mobilisation rhetoric, urging all of society to unite behind the
invasion.

The scenes at a patriotic rally on Wednesday underscored how far Putin
had come down that road in just a few years. At Moscow’s Luzhniki
Stadium, where the World Cup final was held five years ago, a soldier
rapped about “the difficult hour we did not anticipate” alongside
Russia’s military choir and the parents of people killed fighting
for Russia made speeches to a huge flag-waving crowd. The rally’s
hosts welcomed a group of children “saved” by the Russian army in
Mariupol, a city in south-eastern Ukraine it razed to the ground last
spring.

Then Putin appeared, shook hands with a select group of soldiers, and
told Russians to take inspiration from them. “The motherland is our
family,” Putin said. “The people standing up here are deciding to
defend the most valuable and dear thing they have — our family. They
are fighting heroically, courageously, bravely.”

Russian independent media reported that tens of thousands of state
employees and students were paid small sums or forced to attend. The
fact the Kremlin evidently did not think it could fill a stadium to
support Putin without forcing people to go suggests officials know how
difficult mobilising society around the war will be.

“Even in his own mind, he realises it’s not going to happen soon.
It’s going to be a costly, lengthy process,” the former US
official says. “He’s got, he thinks, the time — he’s 70 —
and the resources, the oil and gas money to achieve it. And that’s
what he’ll be remembered for: gathering the Russian lands the way
Peter the Great did.”

But the alternative, one former senior Kremlin official says, may be
too difficult for Putin to contemplate.

“It’s scary to think what happens if this ends in a disastrous
defeat for Russia,” the former official says. “That means
disastrous mistakes were made and the man behind it needs to exit this
life, whether it’s via a bullet, cyanide, or something else. And if
there’s no justice in this world, then nobody gets to have it,” he
adds.

“It’s like when two chess players are playing. One of them is
losing and bashes the other one over the head with the chessboard.
Does that mean he won? No, it’s just an act of desperation.”

_Additional reporting by Henry Foy in Brussels and Anastasia Stognei
in Riga_ https://www.ft.com/content/80002564-...4-44810afb7a49

[Jimbuna]

[Rockstar]

Mariupol Strikes Raise Questions About Possible New Ukrainian Long-Range Weapons

Mariupol is about 50 miles from the front lines, which is just outside of the range of Ukraine’s HIMARS or M270 systems.

BY
HOWARD ALTMAN
|
UPDATED FEB 22, 2023 7:31 PM

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...-range-weapons

For the second night in a row, the city of Mariupol, fully captured by Russia in May, was rocked by explosions, according to the Mariupol City Council Telegram channel.
Far behind the front lines, the attack on Mariupol raises questions about whether Ukraine is using a new type of munition, either provided by allies like the U.S. or domestically produced.

Explosions were heard in the Kalmius district," the Mariupol City Council Telegram channel reported Wednesday night local time. "Meanwhile, two explosions are reported at 10:51 p.m. and 10:53 p.m. in the area of the plant named after Ilyich. We hope that our Defenders will continue to hit the positions of the Russian occupiers."
These latest attacks follow about a dozen strikes on Mariupol Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, according to Ukrainian Telegram channels.

“So far, 11 explosions are known [to have occured] in the Russian-occupied city,” the Mariupol City Council Telegram reported Wednesday morning. “The first explosion occurred at [10:33 P.M. local time]. “There is preliminary information about two hits - in the AS-2 area (Central district) and Stan-3000 (Kalmius district). Probably in places where enemy forces are concentrated.”
The Telegram channel of Mariupol mayoral advisor Petro Andriushchenko later confirmed a strike on the Kalmius district.
“We also confirm the liquidation of two fuel depots at the bases of the occupiers in the Kalmius district,” he wrote Wednesday.
The Ukrainian Ukrinform media outlet reported that Russian military targets at the airport and a nearby industrial plant were also hit.

“It was confirmed that an enemy ammunition depot at the airport and an invaders’ base at the Illich Iron and Steel Works Plant were struck,” according to Ukrinform. “On the morning of February 22, a powerful explosion rang out in Mariupol. Explosions were also recorded near the urban-type settlement of Talakivka in the city’s Kalmiuskyi district. Enemy warehouses located on the territory of the seaport were struck.”

Video emerged on social media purporting to be Russian air defenses being activated over Mariupol.

The extent of the damage, however, is unclear. No images have emerged on social media showing any new destruction in a city that was devastated by months of intense fighting that culminated with the ending of the siege of the Azovstal steel plant.

The local Telegram channels do not say what was used on either Tuesday or Wednesday to hit those targets, which are about 80 kilometers (nearly 50 miles) away from the nearest Ukrainian forces. That is just outside of the precision-guided munitions - that can hit targets out to around 43 miles (70 kilometers) - fired by M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS and M270 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS) provided to Ukraine.
While it is possible Ukrainian forces could have pushed a HIMARS or M270 closer to Mariupol for the strikes, the distance from the front lines has led to speculation that Ukrainian troops used a new, longer-range munition.

On Tuesday, before any of these strikes took place, we reported that the pro-Russian Rybar Telegram channel claimed (without providing proof or saying how they knew) that "at least one" Ukrainian HIMARS crew in the Donetsk Oblast city of Bogatyr “received" the Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB).
With a range of around 94 miles, or 150 kilometers, the GLSDB can reach targets more than twice as far away as the munitions fired by the HIMARS and M270 and well within reach of Mariupol.
The Pentagon on Tuesday deferred questions about whether the GLSDB has been deployed by Ukrainians to Ukraine, which has not commented publicly.
The Ukrainian General Staff said only that Ukraine’s air force had launched eight attacks on the temporary bases of Russian troops and two strikes on the positions of Russia’s antiaircraft missile systems, The New York Times reported.

The New Voice of Ukraine raised the possibility that a domestically produced weapon was used to hit Mariupol.
“Other Russian sources later said that the weapon used may have been Ukraine’s Vilkha-M heavy multiple launch rocket system (based on the Soviet Smerch system) which is reported to have a range of 130 kilometers [about 81 miles],” the news outlet reported Wednesday. “Like HIMARS, Vilkha fires guided rockets, but guidance is independent of the GPS satellite navigation system.”

In August, we first raised the question of whether Ukraine was developing its own ballistic missiles.

In addition to rocket munitions, Ukraine has also used long-range kamikaze drones to hit long-distance targets both inside Russia itself and the Crimean peninsula it has occupied since 2014. And they have also hit targets with sabotage raids and through the use of partisans.
Regardless of what hit Mariupol, that it would be a target now after months of occupation by the Russians is significant.

Ukraine has made no secret of its interest in launching a new offensive toward Crimea, which would have the added effect of cutting off Russian forces now in the Donbas from the peninsula.

That’s something we discussed last week with Ben Hodges, a retired Army lieutenant general who commanded U.S. Army Europe:
The attack appeared to shake up Russian milblogger Ivan Utenkov, who said he was surprised by the explosions, which he surmised were caused by "some new munitions."
"The enemy has definitely started something and the next couple of days will be hell in that area," he said.

Whether the attack on Mariupol is the beginning of an operation to shape the battlefield remains unknown. But it is something we will certainly be keeping an eye on.

Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com

[Jimbuna]

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

Mariupol Strikes Raise Questions About Possible New Ukrainian Long-Range Weapons

Mariupol is about 50 miles from the front lines, which is just outside of the range of Ukraine’s HIMARS or M270 systems.

BY
HOWARD ALTMAN
|
UPDATED FEB 22, 2023 7:31 PM

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...-range-weapons

Probable Ukraine used the Tupolev Tu-141s, ex-Soviet antiques that last saw front-line use in the 1980s, flying photo-reconnaissance missions for the Soviet air force. Ukrainian forces used to strike two Russian bomber bases 300 miles inside Russia with this drone.

[Jimbuna]

Great Britain created secret group to buy Soviet-style artillery shells for Ukraine, - New York Times

Last year, the Ministry of Defense of Great Britain created a secret group that agreed on the purchase of artillery shells of Soviet caliber 122 millimeters for the needs of Ukraine.

This is stated in the material of The New York Times, reports Censor.NET with reference to "Euro Integration".

According to the newspaper, a secret task force created by the British Ministry of Defense was engaged in obtaining Soviet-style ammunition. As the war in Ukraine progressed, this task became increasingly difficult, as large suppliers ran out of supplies.

In June 2022, Britain signed an agreement to purchase 40,000 artillery shells and missiles manufactured at Pakistan's state-owned factories. According to the terms of the agreement, Britain had to pay an intermediary from Romania - the company Romtehnica - for the purchase of Pakistani weapons.

In the official documents of the agreement, it was stated that weapons would be transferred from Pakistan to Great Britain, but there was no mention of Ukraine. But Romtehnica told the NYT that the deal fell through after the Pakistani supplier failed to deliver the ammunition.

According to the article, after the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Russia in February 2022, Ukraine and its allies began to buy Soviet-style weapons "everywhere they could." Among other things, state-owned Ukrainian companies turned to brokers in the US and other countries for tanks, helicopters, planes and mortars.

NYT interlocutors said that both Britain and the US financed the deals using third countries and brokers in cases where the producing countries did not want to publicly admit that they were providing arms to Ukraine.

The decrease in ammunition stocks causes great concern in the EU, as tens of thousands of them are used up every day on the Ukrainian and Russian sides. Although Ukraine uses ammunition more efficiently, it still consumes it faster than Europe is able to produce. Currently, the USA and the EU are trying to increase production both to supply Ukraine and to replenish their own reserves. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3401766

[Jimbuna]

UK PM Rishi Sunak leads a national minute's silence, a year after Russia's full-scale invasion.

This comes as King Charles condemns Russia's "full scale attack" and praises the "remarkable courage" of the Ukrainian people.

Ceremonies are taking place across Ukraine including Bucha - where Russian forces were accused of committing crimes against humanity.

"We endured. We were not defeated," President Zelensky says, vowing Ukraine will do everything to win.

The conflict has become the worst in Europe since the World War Two. The UN passed a resolution late on Thursday condemning Russia.

Meanwhile, Russia's former president, Dmitry Medvedev says his country's military should push Ukrainian forces back to the Polish border.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

Total combat losses of Russian Federation since beginning of war - about 146,820 people (+970 per day), 3,363 tanks, 2,363 artillery systems, 6,600 armored vehicles. INFOGRAPHICS

Losses of the Russian occupiers as of the morning of February 24, 2023, a year since the full-scale invasion, are approximately 146,820.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to the press center of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

As noted, the total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 24.02.23 are approximately:

personnel - about 146,820 (+970) people were eliminated,
tanks - 3363 (+13) units,
armored combat vehicles - 6600 (+7) units,
artillery systems - 2363 (+11) units,
MLRS - 474 (+3) units,
air defense equipment - 247 (+3) units,
aircraft - 299 (+0) units,
helicopters - 287 (+0) units,
Operational-tactical UAV - 2033 (+4),
cruise missiles - 873 (+0),
warships/boats -18 (+0) units,
automotive equipment and tank trucks - 5224 (+9) units,
special equipment - 229 (+1). Source: https://censor.net/en/n3401820

[Jimbuna]

White House criticized China’s "peace plan".

The administration of American President Joe Biden reminded that the war in Ukraine could end even tomorrow, as it is a "war of choice" of the Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.

This was stated by Jake Sullivan, US President's National Security Adviser, Censor.NET reports with reference to RBC-Ukraine.

"Well, my first reaction to that is that they can stop at the first point, which is respect for the sovereignty of all nations," he said.

In his opinion, the war in Ukraine "could end tomorrow" if Russia stops attacking Ukraine and withdraws its troops.

"Ukraine did not attack Russia, NATO did not attack Russia, the United States did not attack Russia. This was a war of choice that Putin started," Sullivan added.

As Censor.NET reported, on the anniversary of Russia's attack on Ukraine, the Chinese Foreign Ministry published its "position on the political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis.

The head of the "Servant of the People" faction, David Arahamia, called China's peace plan as offering an unacceptable position and accused Beijing of wanting to play along with Moscow. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3401877

Chinese Embassy clarified details of "peace plan"

China is ready to continue making efforts together with the international community to promote a political settlement of the "Ukrainian crisis" based on respect for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states in accordance with the principles of the UN Charter.

This was reported in the Chinese embassy in Ukraine, Censor.NET informs with reference to Ukrinform.

The embassy emphasized that this is exactly what is being said in "China's position on the political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis", published on the anniversary of the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The Chinese embassy noted that the document reflects "the consistent, firm, objective and fair position of the Chinese side and actively promotes peace negotiations and plays a constructive role in encouraging the resolution of the crisis."

"The Chinese side is ready to continue making efforts together with the international community to contribute to the promotion of a political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis," the Chinese embassy emphasized.

According to Chinese diplomats, the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states should be respected, the goals and principles of the UN Charter should be adhered to, the rational concerns of all countries in the field of security should be responsibly treated, and efforts that contribute to the peaceful settlement of crises should be supported.

As Censor.NET reported, on the anniversary of Russia's attack on Ukraine, the Chinese Foreign Ministry published its "position on the political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis.

The head of the "Servant of the People" faction, David Arahamia, called China's peace plan as offering an unacceptable position and accused Beijing of wanting to play along with Moscow. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3401874

Russia has already lost war. Putin will not capture Kyiv and will not strike with nuclear weapons, - White House

The Russian occupiers have already lost the war against Ukraine and will not be able to capture Kyiv.

Jacob Sullivan, US President Joe Biden's national security adviser, said this in an interview with CNN, Censor.NET reports with reference to Liga.net.

According to him, a year after the beginning of the great war, Ukraine has already prevented Russia from realizing its main goal - to seize Kyiv.

"Russia's goal in this war was to wipe Ukraine off the face of the earth, capture the capital and destroy Ukraine, absorb it into Russia," Sullivan said.

He noted that the Russians will not be able to do this as long as Ukraine resists and the United States supports it.

Biden's adviser also said that Washington does not see any changes in Russia's nuclear position.

"We don't see any movements in the Russian nuclear forces that make us think that something has fundamentally changed compared to how things were during the past year," he summarized. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3401885

[Skybird]

The Chinese "peace plan" is a vague, nebulous, inconcrete, cloudy, bloated gibberish that, despite all these dubious qualities, cannot hide the fact that it equates the victim with the perpetrator and does not recognize the absolute dysbalance of injustice and despair that the Russian war of choice (it never was a war of need, never) has caused. The perpetrator is rehabilitated, the victim is practically ignored, even discredited, in that the injustice that was and continues to be done to it is not recognized as such, instead there is the reference to the interests of the perpetrator. He is to be given the opportunity to reassert himself.

Exactly the kind of wordy cynical drivel I've come to expect from the Chinese, and a perfect expression of how China defines political power and defines itself. Why Zelensky is so pleased, I don't understand - perhaps he should have finished reading it and not just cherry-pick the phrase "territorial integrity". Because where he may imply it means Ukrainian territory, I think they instead refer to Russian territorial integrity - and that includes five Oblasten in Ukraine the Russians have occupied and declared illegally as their own. So what is he liking in this document?

Into the bin with it, I say. The Chinese are no neutral mediators in this, they have their own interest to justfiy their brutal ways towards the ethnic minorities they suppress and genocide themselves, plus the Tibet and Taiwan issue and their bullying in the south chinese sea. If they would sing the Ukraine's song, they would put their own policy at doubt. Also, they do not want Russia to get too weak from this war, they want it as an ally in their confrontation with the West.