Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Jimbuna]

US reads ‘riot act’ to Germany over refusal to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine

American officials read “the riot act” to Germany after chancellor Olaf Scholz’ refusal to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine, it has been reported.

The reports of a furious dressing down came as Poland suggested it and other Nato allies may organise their own “tank alliance” without Berlin in response to the shock refusal.

Ukraine says it needs modern Western main battle tanks to push Russia out of occupied territory. Its calls have been backed by several allies including Britain.

The German government on Friday dashed hopes of a tank deal when it refused to either send its own Leopard II tanks to Ukraine or grant re-export licences to allies who also operate the vehicle.

While US defence secretary Lloyd Austin publicly defended Germany on Friday, insisting Berlin was a “reliable ally” and “we could all do more”, he privately engaged in a “tense” exchange with Wolfgang Schmidt, Mr Scholz’ chief of staff, Süddeutsche Zeitung reported.

Germany has said it will only allow the export of Leopards if the United States also supplies its own Abrams tanks to Ukraine.

Mr Austin reportedly argued in vain that deploying the US tank would be unnecessarily difficult and time-consuming when there are hundreds of Leopard IIs already in Europe.

Later Jake Sullivan, president Joe Biden’s national security advisor, read “the riot act” to Jens Plotner, Mr Scholz’s foreign policy advisor, the paper reported.

About 50 countries pledged to provide Kyiv with billions of dollars worth of equipment and ammunition at the meeting in Ramstein.

But Boris Pistorius, the new German defence minister, resisted pressure from allies over tanks, saying: “we still cannot say when a decision will be taken, and what the decision will be, when it comes to the Leopard tank.”

Der Spiegel reported on Sunday that the German army has already come up with a list of 19 Leopard IIs that it could send if the order was given.

Mateusz Morawiecki, the prime minister of Poland, on Sunday said Chancellor Scholz’s position was “unacceptable” and hinted Warsaw could find a way to export without German permission.

“Germany’s attitude is unacceptable. It has been almost a year since the war began. Innocent people are dying every day,” he told the PAP agency on Sunday.

“Russian bombs are wreaking havoc in Ukrainian cities. Civilian targets are being attacked, women and children are being murdered”.

If Berlin refuses to supply the tanks to Ukraine, “we will set up a ‘small coalition’ of countries ready to donate some of their modern equipment, their modern tanks,” Morawiecki said.

Poland has announced it is ready to deliver 14 Leopard tanks to Kyiv, and says it is discussing the matter with around 15 countries.

James Cleverly, the foreign secretary, reiterated calls for Leopards to be delivered but avoided criticising Berlin directly.

“Of course, I would like to see the Ukrainians equipped with things like the Leopard II as well as the artillery systems that have been provided by us and by others,” Cleverly said in an interview with Sky News.

“I will keep having those conversations with our Nato allies and friends, to facilitate the donation of the best military equipment to Ukraine to help them defend themselves against this brutal invasion.”

Asked whether Germany was doing enough to help Ukraine, Mr Cleverly said he wanted to see “everybody going as far as they can, but each country will support Ukraine in a way that is most appropriate to them.”

Britain announced ahead of the conference that it would send a company of 14 Challenger II tanks, partly in response to German insistence that it would only supply tanks if other allies did too.

Following the British announcement, the Germans made the more specific demand that the United States send tanks.

On Saturday the foreign ministers of the three Baltic states urged Germany “to provide Leopard tanks to Ukraine now”.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...64edad77de0ad3

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

It will create domino effect: Congress called on US to send at least one Abrams tank to Ukraine

The US House of Representatives called for sending at least one Abrams tank to Ukraine. Because such a decision of the White House can create a domino effect to push other countries to transfer Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.

This was stated by the chairman of the foreign affairs committee of the US House of Representatives, Michael McCaul, Censor.NET reports with reference to RBC-Ukraine.

He stressed that the US needs to take steps to push European countries into action and help President Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukraine avoid a protracted, bloody war of attrition.

"If we announce that we are going to give Abrams tanks, even one, it will lead to ... As I have heard, Germany is waiting for us to take the initiative," McCall said.

The official added that the transfer of the tank to Ukraine would create a domino effect, forcing other European countries to send Leopard 2 tanks.

"Even if we say we're going to put Abrams tanks in, I think that will be enough for Germany to act," McCall said. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3394966

Macron admits possibility of providing Ukraine with Leclerc tanks, but named three conditions

Today, on January 22, French President Emmanuel Macron said that he does not rule out the possibility of supplying French Leclerc tanks to Ukraine and named three conditions for this.

This is stated by Censor.NЕТ with reference to BFM TV.

"Nothing is out of the question, and this is assessed collectively according to three criteria," the French president said.

According to him, firstly, this tank should not cause an escalation, secondly, it should provide real and effective support to the Ukrainian army, and thirdly, it should not "weaken our own defense capabilities."

As a reminder, according to Western media, Paris is considering transferring its main Leclerc tanks to Ukraine. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3394972

American Bradley IFVs for Ukraine are already in Poland. VIDEO

Footage of American Bradley infantry fighting vehicles sent by the United States for Ukraine being transported through Poland was posted online. Source: https://censor.net/en/v3394975

[Dargo]

Morocco offers its tanks to Ukraine

The Moroccan army would have sold an unknown number of T-72B tanks which were being modernized in the Czech Republic for the benefit of Ukraine. About twenty units were sent to the battlefield a week ago and they were visible during the visit of Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala to the workshops of the Excalibur Army company in Sternberk, which had carried out their refurbishment. .

In all, the Moroccan army had 148 T-72s, 136 T-72Bs and 12 T-72BKs from Belarusian army stocks purchased second-hand in two batches in 1999 and 2000. At the time, the state- Moroccan major wanted to form a “Russian” brigade based in the north of the country to thwart the Algerian armored divisions.

Morocco's decision to deliver arms to Ukraine was taken, almost under duress, during the Rammstein summit for Ukraine which took place on April 26, 2022 and which was organized by the United States. At this summit Tunisia and Morocco were the only two countries to represent North Africa. Tunis had dispatched at the time two cargo planes to Rzeszow airport in Poland, which centralizes logistical aid to Ukraine and there Morocco seems to have followed suit by sending not humanitarian aid but outright weapons.

The United States promises material aid to countries that have decided to get rid of their Russian or Soviet military equipment, this may foreshadow a replacement of these Moroccan T-72s with M1A1s from the American military surplus. https://www-menadefense-net.translat..._x_tr_pto=wapp

[Jimbuna]

Russians suspected of involvement in sending bomb letters across Europe, including to Ukrainian embassy - The New York Times

Russian agents are suspected of leading a far-right group that sent explosives to Spain.

This is stated by The New York Times, reports Censor.NЕТ with reference to RBC-Ukraine.

According to the publication, US officials claim that the operation could have been a signal to Russia that Russia and its supporters could carry out new terrorist attacks in Europe, including the capitals of North Atlantic Alliance member states, if the countries continue to support Ukraine.

Spanish and foreign investigators found out who sent six bomb letters in late November and early December 2022, mostly in Madrid, including the official residence of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, the US and Ukrainian embassies, and the Ministry of Defense.

"No one was killed in the attacks, which U.S. officials classify as terrorism. An employee of the Ukrainian embassy was injured in the explosion of one of the packages. However, U.S. and European officials believe that Russian military intelligence officers ordered a group of militants, which was actually based in Russia, to carry out the campaign, which targeted the prime minister, defense minister and foreign diplomats, among other officials," the NYT writes.

According to the officials quoted by the newspaper, investigators focused on the "Russian Imperial Movement", a radical group with members and supporters across Europe and military training centers in St. Petersburg. They added that the group, which has been designated a global terrorist organization by the U.S. State Department, potentially has ties to Russian intelligence services. Important members of the group were in Spain, and police there have traced their ties to far-right Spanish organizations.

U.S. officials note that the Russian officers who led the campaign intended to catch European governments off guard and may have been testing proxy groups in case the Kremlin decided to escalate the conflict.

"This looks like a warning shot. This is Russia sending a signal that it is willing to use terrorists to attack the rear areas of the West," said Nathan Sales, former U.S. State Department counterterrorism coordinator. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3394981

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Dargo]

By AFP - Agence France Presse

Germany is ready to authorize Poland to send German-made Leopard tanks to Ukraine to help Kyiv fight the Russian invasion if Warsaw makes such a request, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said Sunday.

"If we are asked the question, then we will not stand in the way," Baerbock told LCI television after a Franco-German summit meeting in Paris. "We know how important these tanks are, and this is why we are discussing this now with our partners. We need to make sure people's lives are saved and Ukraine's territory liberated."

[Skybird]

^

https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-update...ine/a-64480279

The question is whether or not Baerbock said this with or without approval by Scholz. I think its absolutely possible that the Greens sooner or later would openly confront him.

Better it would be if the Germans gave up.

However, one answer needs to be given, that is: how many Western IFVs and MBTS is the West prepared to see getting lost in Ukraine before wavering again, at least the Europeans? Because nobody should think Bradleys, Marders and Leopards are invulnerable, these are no miraculous wonder-weapons. The Ukrainians will loose some of these tanks and IFVs, and their crews will get killed. The Turks lost 3 Leopard-2A4 against IS, and then again several such tanks in Syria 2016. That may not be the newest version of the Leopard-2, but then it also were not fights against enemies with sophisticated weapons, and it were not huge tank battles like there have been in the Ukraine.
I think unappropriate tactical leadership of the tanks not sufficiently combined with infantry was reported back then to be the cause of those losses.


The Russioans will make hunt and kill of the Leopard a pripority. They will see a chance to impact heavily on Western mood and public opinion if only they would manage to get them killed in sufficiently high numbers.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Skybird

In this German-made mess, it does not help Germany's case that the American position may sound well-founded, but that there is more to it than that. The Americans are right that the M1 would unnecessarily increase logistical pressure on the already overstretched Ukrainian logistics network, compared to the Leopard, especially fuel (it consumes at least 1/5 more in quantity than the Leopard, and needs not Diesel, but gasoline, jet fuel or kerosine). What they are not saying is that they have all their production capacities fully committed to preparing for the expected conflict in the Pacific, and therefore do not want to divert capacity from that to refitting M1 tanks for the Ukrainians. The Americans are not lying, they are just not telling the whole truth and hiding something.

^ Thats what I have reasoned myself so far, but maybe it even goes deeper than that. FOCUS has this:
----------------------------------------
The German government's hesitant stance is drawing widespread criticism at home and abroad. At the defense ministers' conference in Ramstein, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said that there were good reasons for delivery and good reasons against it. These would have to be weighed against each other.

The reasons are obvious: After all, Ukraine cannot defend itself successfully without tanks. But what are the reasons against? Time and again, there is discussion about whether Germany might cross Putin's red line and become a party to the war. But in the case of the Leopard 2s, this does not seem to be the sole reason. Because Olaf Scholz also does not want to release the delivery of the Leopard 2 for other states.

One reason, which has hardly been discussed so far, could have to do with the USA and its national interests. The Neue Zürcher Zeitung writes that the U.S. is just waiting for the Europeans to deliver their Leopard 2, because then the U.S. could offer its own tanks as a replacement. Thus, the tank debate would give the U.S. a unique opportunity to establish itself on the European defense market with armored vehicles.

At the moment, Germany in particular is competing with them in the armaments market: with the Leopard 2, Germany has built the best tank in the world, but also one of the most expensive.

As early as the 1960s, the Americans founded the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, which set itself the task of encouraging countries to buy American weapons. International partners with the same weapons would be easier to integrate into U.S.-led military coalitions. So if European states now buy U.S. weapons, the U.S. can increase the number of units and thus reduce costs.

The additional revenue can eventually be invested by the U.S. in weapons improvement and development - a big win for Americans.

And these arms policy interests could also play a role for Olaf Scholz. So if Scholz now delivers Leopard 2s, he will harm German arms policy. But if he does not deliver battle tanks, he will further encourage the already smoldering criticism against Germany and thus also harm German interests.

This is not just about an economic loss for Germany. In addition to securing taxes and jobs, the defense industry is also a major component of foreign policy. After all, equipping the armed forces of another state creates trust and, at the same time, economic dependence, according to the "Neue Zürcher Zeitung."

Any country that enters into a tank deal with the U.S. is thus a loss for the German arms industry - and thus also reduces Berlin's political influence. Now the question is what is more important to the chancellor.
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Add to it that much of the American aid to Ukraine is no gift, but credit and lend&lease, 2023-style.

States have no friends. States have interests. (deGaulle).

With the Polish shift towards South Korea and after this rift over the Leopards, I think the German defence industry will suffer customer losses in Europe anyway. States must have realised that they are depending on Germany'S good will if they want to use these weapons or deliver them further. Not that the same does not apply to American weapon deliveries. But especially in Eatsenr Europe the trust-meter currently shows significantly higher values for the US than for Germany - and not just there.

Also, in then long perspective I think Germany will loose in importance as defence producer due to its deiondustrialisation policy, its inapt energy policy, and the general lack of workers and materials. I do not see these factors loosing but I see them winning in relevance, and the fallout from that cannot be good. Finally, one can see how overregulation as well as political indifference is paralysing Germany to renew its defence sector and production ambitions. This additionally scares customers away. Latest statistis they reported last week or so showed that foreign investors as well as customers have started to avoid Germany in relevant quantity.

[Otto Harkaman]

historical synopsis of the battle of Kyiv

[August]

[Dowly]

Fighting from the POV of two Finnish volunteers:



(Eng subs on)

[Skybird]

Getting approached by repoprters in Brussels on Monday asking on her remarks on Leopards earlier Sunday evening, Baerbock already has turned fully evasive again and refused to indicate any binding decision of the government again. She rejected to give a clear answer and did not accept further questions.

As I suspected earlier already. Her earlier remarks that Germany would not stand in other nations way if they want to send Leopards, are not backed by Scholz. Maybe just not yet, but certainly not already now.

[Jimbuna]

Huge breakthrough for Zelensky as Germany gives green light to Leopard tanks

Volodymyr Zelensky received a huge boost yesterday after Germany said it would "not stand in the way" of Poland sending tanks to Ukraine.

Poland's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Sunday his country was ready to dispatch 14 German-made Leopard tanks to Kyiv, but was "waiting for a clear statement" from Berlin on whether it could transfer the heavy armour.

In a clear sign that Berlin is softening its stance on tanks, Germany's Foreign Secretary told French TV station LCI that her government would "not stand in the way" of Poland.

Asked what would happen if Warsaw sent its Leopard 2 tanks without German approval, Annalena Baerbock replied: "For the moment the question has not been asked, but if we were asked we would not stand in the way."

Germany had been much criticised over the weekend for refusing to commit to providing Kyiv with its Leopard tanks at a security meeting held at a US airbase in Ramstein Germany on Friday.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...57883cb9fe23b9