Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

German Green Economy Minister Habeck told the media that he supports the Polish demand for Leopard deliveries to Ukraine, and that Germany should not refuse. Thus, the Greens are again increasing the pressure on Bubble-Olaf and his SPD, and this pressure is likely to increase until the upcoming Ramstein conference.

The military value of a shortened tank company from Poland, reduced to 10 vehicles, is likely to be rather low, these are simply too few tanks, and already in peacetime never all combat vehicles of a company or battalion are actually operational, something is always in repair and maintenance - how much more in war, I wonder?

In addition, very long and complicated logistic chains have to be newly, additionally built. Fuel, ammunition, spare parts. A maintenance base for Leopards is supposed to be built in Slovenia or Slovakia (I always confuse the two...).

I would expect that it would have to be a heavy brigade, what would have to be deployed in Ukraine with armored western vehicles - MBTs and IFVs - to really perform a game-changer function. A brigade, that would be 3-5 battalions, and one of them with heavy battle tanks and 2-3 with IFVs - that would indeed be something. In addition, a logistic and perhaps an artillery battalion or one with mortars. A tank battalion, that would be 45-55 tanks. 50 American Bradley: a mechanized battalion. 40 German Marder: one (shortened) battalion.

Three fingers of an armored fist. Two more to go. Say one more battalion of Soviet-produced combat vehicles. Artillery perhaps not at brigade level, but variably supporting by Himars and howitzers already delivered.

When the Leopards come and the Challengers (also just a shortened company...) , Russia should maybe begin to worry even more seriously about its stolen territories. Such a formation could punch through a Russian front and drive a wedge all the way to the coast.

Have a nice rest of your vacation in Crimea, Russians!

[Jimbuna]

Europeans fear expansion of war beyond Ukraine - survey

81 percent of EU citizens surveyed by the ’Eurobarometer" project commissioned by the European Parliament fear the spread of war from Ukraine to other countries.

This is stated by Censor.NЕТ with reference to DW.

The most concerned about the spread of war outside Ukraine were in Malta - 93 percent of respondents, Portugal (91), Poland (91) and Lithuania (90 percent). This fear is especially prevalent among women and older people. In addition, at least 74 percent of respondents are concerned about the nuclear threat, and 72 percent are concerned about threats to common European values such as freedom and democracy.

At the same time, Russia's war against Ukraine has strengthened citizens' support for the EU: 62 percent have a positive view of EU membership. This is one of the highest results ever since 2007, the study says.

Most Europeans are concerned about the rising cost of living - this issue is relevant for 93 percent of respondents. Currently, the majority of citizens are not satisfied with the actions taken either by national governments or at the EU level to combat the rising cost of living. The threat of poverty and social exclusion is the second most frequent concern with 82 percent.

The poll also showed that there is strong support for Ukraine among residents of EU member states: 74 percent of respondents approve of overall support after a full-scale Russian invasion. In particular, sanctions against Russia, financial, military and humanitarian assistance. The highest level of support was recorded in Sweden - 97 percent, Finland - 95, the Netherlands - 93, Portugal - 92 and Denmark - 92 percent. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3392976

German government did not decide to transfer Leopard tanks to Ukraine, - Lambrecht

The transfer of Leopard battle tanks from Germany to Ukraine is not on the agenda yet.

This was stated by the head of the German Defense Ministry Christine Lambrecht, іnforms Censor.NЕТ with reference to DW. "The federal government has no decision on the transfer of battle tanks. No such decision has been made," the Head of the Defense Ministry stressed.

Lambrecht recalled the weapons systems that Germany is transferring to Ukraine and the recent decision to provide Kyiv with Marder infantry fighting vehicles. The minister did not comment on the readiness of Poland and the UK to send battle tanks to Kyiv. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3392975

[Skybird]

Frankfurter Rundschau:
-----------------------------
In the discussion about the delivery of battle tanks to Ukraine, Finland is now signaling its willingness to provide Leopard 2 tanks to the country under attack from Russia. In a joint European approach, his country would also contribute, Finnish President Sauli Niinistö told the STT news agency.

However, Finland is in a special position, he said, because it is not yet a NATO member and shares a common border with Russia. Therefore, Finland's contribution could not be particularly large. The country has more than 200 German-made Leopard 2 tanks, according to STT.
------------------------------


That's 3, maybe 4. Poland, United Kingdom, Finland. Last year already, then denied: Spain.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Frankfurter Rundschau:
-----------------------------
In the discussion about the delivery of battle tanks to Ukraine, Finland is now signaling its willingness to provide Leopard 2 tanks to the country under attack from Russia. In a joint European approach, his country would also contribute, Finnish President Sauli Niinistö told the STT news agency.

However, Finland is in a special position, he said, because it is not yet a NATO member and shares a common border with Russia. Therefore, Finland's contribution could not be particularly large. The country has more than 200 German-made Leopard 2 tanks, according to STT.
------------------------------


That's 3, maybe 4. Poland, United Kingdom, Finland. Last year already, then denied: Spain.

And of course now when I need it I can't find it-Some hours ago I read a Status on twitter where they said something with we want Abrams M1A1 or was it 2.
Instead I tried to find something about it on the web-And I found this
Question:
"Should we give Ukraine M1 Abrams tanks?"

Answer:
"There is a logistics problem with that. The Abrams has a gas turbine engine that most Ukrainian mechanics are unfamiliar with, we would also have to provide the parts and maintenance/repair infrastructure for it. The beauty of using Russian built tanks is they have an almost infinite supply of parts and even the Ukrainian farmers can take one apart and put it back together again."

Markus

[les green01]

maybe Ukraine needs to tell putin they need another supplied run of tanks we know the ruskies loves doing it

[Otto Harkaman]

Wagner has posted a movie for recruitment, pretty intense. I won't post a link because I don't to promote them. It looks like something out of Battlefield 4 but with live people and weapons of an urban operation to clear a building or block of a city.

[Jimbuna]

Russia branded 'liability' as Putin warned closest allies turning on him

Russia has been branded a "liability" after launching its brutal war in Ukraine, with Vladimir Putin warned his few remaining allies are turning on him. This week, several officials from China reportedly tried to distance their country from the Ukraine invasion and expressed strong doubts over Putin. Armenia, a member with Russia in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, said his country has cancelled plans to host Russian military drills. Simon Miles, a historian of the Soviet Union and US-Soviet relations, told Insider: "Nobody wants an ally who is a liability, and it's hard to see Putin's Russia as anything else. I think we can see the consequences already in that the most active support is coming from Iran and North Korea - hardly the top of anyone's friend wish list."
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...82dcd5a91eb79c

[Jimbuna]

Russian doctors urge Putin to 'stop abusing' Alexei Navalny as health worsens

A group of 200 Russian doctors have condemned Vladimir Putin for abusing his main political rival, Aleksei Navalny, as he sits in prison. The group have said Navalny's health "is being deliberately harmed" and that they are "greatly concerned" his condition mgith deteriorate. Navalny is currently serving a nine-year sentence handed to him in March last year by a Russian court.

Writing to Putin, the doctors said: "The detention conditions and the appearance of Aleksei Navalny make us greatly concerned for his life and health. From the medical point of view, it is clear that Aleksei is not receiving sufficient medical help."

Lawyers for Navalny say that he fell ill after sharing a cell with an imnate who had been "deliberately placed in the prison's medical ward full of flu patients".

Navalny has not always shared a cell, and claims he was recently put in solitary confinement for the 10th time in a year.

They added that Mr Navalny needs medication amid reports he is suffering from a fever, chills, and coughing fits and have requested that he be transferred from the penal colony where he is being held to hospital for treatment.

The formerly free rival to Putin is the leader fo the Russia of the Future paty, one which has continuously challenged Putin and exposed government corruption.

While a key figure in Russian politics, Mr Navalny began to receive national attention when he was poisoned in with a Novichok nerve agen in September 2020.

After recovering from the attack, which intelligence services say was carried out by agents of the Russian secret police, Nalvany recovered.

However, whilst he was recovering in Berlin, the Kremlin accused him of violating parole conditions.

Upon his return to Russia in January 2021, Mr Navalny was arrested on the basis of these accusations that had been imposed when he was convicted for alleged embezzlement in 2014.

Originally only meant to serve a two-and-a-half year sentence, this as increased by nine more years after he was accussed of embezzling funds from his own party, something Mr Navalny denies.

In a bid to try and convince Russia officials to grant him treatment, Mr Navalny's wife, Yulia, has also urged Russian authorities to treat him before he dies.

In a post on Instagram she wrote: "Imagine that you are shut in a case measuring two by three metres. That they place a person with you who is already sick, so that your cold grows stronger, so that the flu is added on top of your cold.

"That they get you up at 6am and they keep you from lying down all day, even though you have a high temperature."

Mr Navalny has been suffering from ill health in prison for a long time. In December he took to Twitter to say: "I have a problem with my spine. It is clear what one has to do to make the problem worse: keep me immobile as much as possible.

"If you lock a person up in a punishment cell, where he can either stand or sit on an iron stool for 16 hours a day, after a month in such conditions even a healthy person will undoubtedly get back pains. I've spent the last 3 months like this. Naturally, my back hurts a lot." Mr Navalny has said he belives his captures are deliberately making him ill.

The fear now is that Mr Navalny will deteriorate further and potentially die in prison.

However, this is not a certainty and there is potential for Russian authorites to change their minds.

As Navalny's physical health worsens, the political health of the man who put him there appears to be waining too.

Putin is coming under greater pressure as the war in Ukraine continues.

Rumours are even now beginning to swirl over whether he will see out the war.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/oth...2d96355162c04e

[Jimbuna]

Total combat losses of Russian Federation since beginning of war - about 114,130 people (+740), 276 helicopters, 3,098 tanks, 2,086 artillery systems, 6,167 armored vehicles. INFOGRAPHICS

Losses of the Russian occupiers as of the morning of January 13, 2023, are approximately 114,130 people.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to the press center of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

As noted, the total combat losses of the enemy from 24.02.22 to 13.01.23 are approximately:

personnel - about 114,130 (+740) people were eliminated,
tanks - 3098 (+4) units,
armored combat vehicles - 6167 (+8) units,
artillery systems - 2086 (+4) units,
MLRS - 437 (+0) units,
air defense equipment - 218 (+0) units,
aircraft - 286 (+1) units,
helicopters - 276 (+0) units,
UAV of operational-tactical level - 1865 (+0),
cruise missiles - 723 (+0),
warships/boats - 17 (+0) units,
automotive equipment and tank trucks - 4833 (+7) units,
special equipment - 184 (+0). Source: https://censor.net/en/n3393011

[Skybird]

I mentioned, randomly, in the past year, that I think we must drop a new iron curtain to the East. I meant by that that we must also massively reinvest into readying our warfighting capabilities again so that we are prepared for everything. We need to do so NO MATTER THE OUTOCME OF THE CURRENT WAR. Even when Russia looses.

Die Welt quotes Martin van Creveld with this piece that further explains why: in summary, it is because Europe has new big troubles in its East, no matter whether the Russians win or loose.

To make this clear: By the reasons of this essay, I in no way wish to say that we should not wish for a Russian defeat, or should allow Russia an easy way out that some left crazies call a "fair peace". The only fair peace there can be, after all the atrocities committed and the brutality and aggression shown by Russia, is a peace that means the Russians are forced out of Ukraine, must leave it alone because they cannot continue, and must pay compensations for the damage they have done. The latter will never happen, of course. What it means is this: Europe must with utmost urgency ready itself for the dangerous chaos that is about to break loose on the territoriy of the current Russian federation that most likely will not survive the coming years or decades in the form it took after the fall of the Sovjet Union.

And this urgent need is not really seen in Europe, I feel. The wasting of time, the setting of wrong priorities, the desire to return to business as usual already has set in again. But we iurgently need to build a fireall against Russia - BEFORE the pressure cooker that Russia now is goes up.

That Russia has bought itself deeply into especially the Germans' and the eU's poltlicla eleites and ciorruoted the very deicison making process at the most profounbd bas elevel alrerady, does not help, of cours. We see today what obstacle to a stronger and faster European reaction namely Germany still poses. And many in Germany still want to leave it to that. Citizens and politicians alike.

-----------------------------
Why we should be afraid of Russia's defeat

For almost a year now, much has been written and said about what could happen if Putin wins his war. If you had printed out all the verbatim reports on this and put them on board the Titanic, the ship would have sunk even without the help of the iceberg - because of overloading. At this point, I would like to turn the question around: What happens if it loses?

Let's first take a look at the winners of such a scenario. If we disregard the small fry, there will essentially be two: the United States and China. The United States, because it will have succeeded in bringing down the country it saw as its only equal competitor throughout the Cold War and, to some extent, after it ended. And they will do so without spending more than 5 percent of their defense budget or leaving the bones of a single American soldier on a battlefield. Viewed in this light, the war could well be seen as a triumph for the United States, and one with few parallels in history.

Next up, China. A year after Putin launched his 'special military operation,' Beijing, though plagued by problems like Corona and sluggish economic growth, has reason to celebrate. While the Chinese barely lift a finger and it costs their country next to nothing, they have almost reached the point where their once powerful neighbor to the northwest has become a 'client state'. Should Russia's weakness lead to its disintegration, China might even make an initially modest but later increasingly vigorous attempt to reclaim some of those vast territories it lost to the tsars in the nineteenth century.

And not by means of a large-scale military campaign, as some have been predicting for years, but by the kind of infiltration that is even under way today. The most trustworthy figures available show that the population of northwestern China is ten times larger than that of northeastern Russia (74,000,000 versus only 7,000,000) and growing. In Moscow, this will bring back memories of the Mongol conquest, which began in 1237 and lasted until 1480.

Now for the losers. After a defeat in Ukraine, the Russian Federation will fall apart, completing a development that began with the end of the Cold War. Russia is not and never has been an ethnically homogeneous country. According to official statistics, the percentage of Russians in Russia (as opposed to the former Soviet Union) peaked in 1979 at 82.6 percent. Since then, it has been declining, falling to an estimated 77.1 percent in 2021. Due to low birth rates, high death rates, declining life expectancy and an aging population, most observers expect this trend to continue until Russians make up only 60 to70 percent of the total population.

The total number of different ethnic groups in Russia is estimated to be well over 100. Some of them, especially the non-Christian ones in the south, have a centuries-long tradition of resentment over their more or less forcible incorporation into a Russian empire and hope to regain their former independence. Defeat in Ukraine, which will almost certainly be followed by the fall of Putin and his regime, could very well trigger a period of chaos similar to that of 1917 to 1921. Where that will end, if at all, no one knows.
As in 1917 to 1921, the chaos could be exacerbated by various neighboring states trying to use the situation to their own advantage. Poland, Romania, and Hungary could use the opportunity to reclaim provinces they lost either to the Soviet Union or to their neighbors between 1919 and 1945. The same goes for Mongolia, Iran, and Turkey, all of which have a large score to settle with Russia.

The result? A large part of the Eurasian continent, stretching from Vladivostok to Warsaw, is going up in flames because everyone is fighting everyone else: in the name of nationalism, in the name of freedom, in the name of religion, or whatever. Regardless of whether Putin and his clique remain in power or are replaced by other actors, Moscow, pushed to the extreme, could resort to the use of nuclear weapons. Not against external enemies, for that was Stalin's reason for developing them in the first place, but within its own country and against part of its own population.


And what about Central and Western Europe? Thanks mainly to the division by two superpowers, each of which had a huge nuclear arsenal and was capable of turning the other into a radioactive desert within hours on command, this part of the world experienced the most stable, peaceful, prosperous and democratic period in its history from 1945 onward. So much so that after the collapse of the USSR, in many ways everything continued as before. The current war in Ukraine threatens to end this happy time by reviving old conflicts. Should the Russians win the current war, the threat to Central and even Western Europe is obvious. Should they lose it, then that threat is almost as obvious.
---------------------------------


We should be worried, yes. We have reason to be. But that should not make us appeasing Russia and allowing it to get away with brutality and bullying. It should instead make us preparing ourselves and readying ourselves for the storm coming. It makes no sense to allow being paralysed by fear of inevitable things or holding false hopes. The only reaction that makes sense is: preparation. More we cannot do anyway. But at least this little is what we should do for sure.


"Hope is no strategy." - Gen. Sharon

[mapuc]

Does the Ukrainian have huge problem with the logistic in general ?

A friend wrote a long issue about the war and what kind of problem UA had and it was therefore no doubt that Russia would win in the end and one of them was this Logistic.

As I understand it the weapon, weapon system and ammo comes from Poland and other country in an neverending stream.

I know from news that Ukrainian military have a hub near Lviv where war material from Poland is transported across the border.

I could imagine there is some problem getting it from the Hubs near the border to Poland and other countries to the front.

Markus

[Skybird]

Their logistic chain certainly is so complex that they need creativ thinking and plenty of ingenious improvisation skills to master it. So far they have.

I hinted at this some times, that every new individual Western system delivered, every new platform, needs them to make the logistics network even more complex and difficult for them.



As the saying goes: In war, amateurs focus on tactics, professionals focus on logistics.



Ideally, we should not have sent the Marder, Bradley and AMX-10, but just lets say the Bradley (just an example), or even better only Marders because they are closer to the theatre already, and replace the delivering country'S losses internally in NATO, and outside the war.



Instead, they now have three vehicles, one in low quantity, and need to open three full supply lines now. Or the Challengers from UK. Just ten tanks, that is nothing decisive at all - but they need to open a full supply chain just for these ten tanks. Thats why I am against the US delivering the Abrams, and Biden seems to think the same way, media said he told that the Germans that he doe snto nweant to send Abrams due to the gas turbine issue. We should deliver them Leopards only. And we should make sure that these many different national versions are as similiar and as small in diversity as possible. Even withint he same base variant, lets say 2A4, a Leopard for country A is not like the Leopard for another country named B, they all have their own ammo, their own modified electronics specifications, their own software, even changes in the engines, transmission... Ammo fired from one Leopard may not work when fired form another nation's Leopard even if the Rheinmetal gun by verison number is exactly the same: its about warhead programming maybe, or electronics and software code for feeding the (differing) targetting computer. There are not just 5 or 6 different versions of Leopard-2 in service in Europe - but DOZENS.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Does the Ukrainian have huge problem with the logistic in general ?

A friend wrote a long issue about the war and what kind of problem UA had and it was therefore no doubt that Russia would win in the end and one of them was this Logistic.

As I understand it the weapon, weapon system and ammo comes from Poland and other country in an neverending stream.

I know from news that Ukrainian military have a hub near Lviv where war material from Poland is transported across the border.

I could imagine there is some problem getting it from the Hubs near the border to Poland and other countries to the front.

Markus

There are no logistic problems train network is intact on the whole front line Ukraine hitting Russian supply hubs far behind the lines daily Russia has the problems.

[Skybird]

Ukraine is running out of spare parts for certain Russian-made equipmentm Dargo. Same for ammo. THAT is a problem for sure. And that is why they want to accelerate the transition to Western-made weapons and platforms. They need to.



Anyway: why tnaks are sitll relevant in modern warfare is described by Die Welt. Myself, I too said before the war that tanks may be obsolete in the wake of drones and ATGMs - but who am I to question the Ukrainians' experience. I stand corrected.
--------------------------
Some experts believe that tanks are too vulnerable for today's wars. But there is much to suggest that the German Leopard 2 in particular could be used to recapture Ukrainian territory. Kiev's troops know exactly why they continue to ask Berlin for supplies.

In recent days, the SPD's foreign policy spokesman has caused some astonishment among experts. For example, Nils Schmid had told the BBC that the German government's refusal to supply Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine was because they could "change the dynamics on the battlefield." Ukraine expert Franziska Davies commented on the statement on Twitter with a visibly unnerved, "That's what the hell it's all about!"

Others wondered, for the umpteenth time, whether Germany is really serious about Ukraine winning this battle for its own territory against the aggressor Russia. Thus, the strange distinctions between offensive and defensive weapons keep popping up in the German debate, just as if Ukraine did not need offensive weapons to regain lost territory.
And that is ultimately what the Leopard 2 debate is about. Ukraine has been very good at defensive combat, which usually demands more casualties from the attackers than from the defenders when they operate out of well-fortified positions. Now, however, the goal is to retake territory occupied by Russia, and to do so, the Ukrainians will also need heavy battle tanks to penetrate the now well-fortified Russian positions.

In the Kharkiv area, they still managed to break through with mechanized units (equipped with military vehicles, note) in early September because they took the thinned-out Russian units there by surprise, so that they managed to make significant gains in terrain even with their limited offensive assets.

However, the Russians will not be so easily overwhelmed in the future. For example, the Russian withdrawal from Kherson from the west bank of the Dnipro has led to a frontline straightening that has allowed Russia to better fortify the front - often with multiple defensive lines in succession - and to occupy it with the help of newly mobilized recruits.

To break through these without suffering catastrophic losses themselves, the Ukrainians need, among other things, more Western-made heavy battle tanks. Because they are clearly superior in armor and firing precision to the Soviet- and Russian-produced models that both sides have been using so far. And because the Ukrainians are also slowly running out of spare parts for their old tanks after more than ten months of extreme use.

The Leopard is the most suitable replacement because it is available in Europe in considerable numbers, because it consumes less fuel than the American Abrams and because it is also considered to be less maintenance-intensive, especially since the supply and spare parts logistics from Europe would be relatively easy to organize. With its 120-millimeter gun, the current version of the Leopard 2 has considerable penetrating power and is capable of reliably destroying intended targets, even when traveling at high speed in a bumpy environment.

But in light of modern, digitized drone warfare, are heavy battle tanks even relevant today? In the West, heavy battle tanks have long been out of fashion because they seemed too cumbersome for the era of counterterrorism that began after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the United States.

And the early experience of Russia's war against Ukraine also led to a fierce debate among experts about whether tanks had not now become too vulnerable to, say, small, shoulder-launched anti-tank weapons, with which the Ukrainians inflicted heavy losses on Russian formations.

"Russia's bungled invasion and the remarkable strength of the Ukrainian defensive struggle have highlighted the diminishing penetrating power of heavy and expensive military units challenged by more agile, easier-to-operate and crucially cheaper systems," wrote military thinker Phillips O'Brien of Scotland's University of St. Andrews in The Atlantic, for example. "Tanks, warplanes and warships will be relegated to irrelevance and replaced by new tools of conflict."

At first glance, the numbers seem to bear that out. According to Ukrainian figures, Russia has lost 3100 tanks in this war - significantly more than the larger European NATO countries of Poland, Germany, France, Britain, Spain and Italy combined even have in service.

Researchers from the open-source platform Oryx were able to verify at least more than 1,600 Russian tanks destroyed, abandoned or captured by Ukraine when evaluating images from social media, for example, while 450 tanks lost on the Ukrainian side could be identified.

However, many military experts vehemently disagree with the impression that battle tanks are therefore obsolete in modern land warfare. Robert Lee, for example, who has intensively observed and documented the Ukraine war from the beginning, attributes the high Russian tank losses - especially in the early stages of the war - to several factors.

"Three key factors explain Russian tank losses: a lack of advance warning and preparation, poor strategy that exacerbated supply problems, and too little infantry to protect the tanks," Lee writes in a study on the security website War on the Rocks. Often, for example, it was problems with supplies of spare parts, fuel or ammunition that led to an unusually high number of tanks abandoned by their Russian crews and only then destroyed by Ukrainian units, he said.

"If you're going to conduct offensive operations against fortified defenses, you have to mass a lot of combat power, and tanks are still the most likely to survive that," Lee says. "Without tanks, a military fighting a major land war would have to rely on armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles to fill the same role, resulting in a greater number of catastrophic failures and higher loss of life."

Lee also points out that the Ukrainians are now preeminent experts in what is actually needed for modern land warfare. "The Ukrainians have more experience with conventional warfare than any of our countries, and they continue to deploy tanks and ask for more," Lee said. "That's a pretty good indicator that main battle tanks are still relevant."
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