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03-23-14, 12:36 PM | #781 | |
Gefallen Engel U-666
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Quote:
In November 2003, Dmitry Kozak, a counselor of the Russian president Vladimir Putin, proposed a memorandum on the creation of an asymmetric federal Moldovan state, with Moldova holding a majority and Transnistria being a minority part of the federation. Known as "the Kozak memorandum", it did not coincide with the Transnistrian position, which sought equal status between Transnistria and Moldova, but gave Transnistria veto powers over future constitutional changes; this encouraged Transnistria to sign it. Vladimir Voronin was initially supportive of the plan, but refused to sign it after internal opposition and international pressure from the OSCE and US, and after Russia had endorsed the Transnistrian demand to maintain a Russian military presence for the next 20 years as a guarantee for the intended federation. Talks were started in 2006 to deal with the problems, but without results for many years. In February 2011 the so-called "5 + 2 Talks" (thus named because they were carried out by Transnistria, Moldova, Ukraine, Russia and OSCE, plus the US and the EU as external observers) were started again in Vienna. Following the precedent set by the accession of Crimea to the Russian Federation, in March 2014 Transnistria asked to join the Russian Federation. Political mittens are already well past dirty here!
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"Only two things are infinite; The Universe and human squirrelyness; and I'm not too sure about the Universe" Last edited by Aktungbby; 03-23-14 at 01:42 PM. |
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03-23-14, 12:54 PM | #782 | ||
Navy Seal
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See, for instance, Ramzan Kadyrov: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramzan_Kadyrov Great proponent of integration and peace. Thanks to him, Russia is currently the world's 2nd largest source of refugees after Syria (he has people running for their life from Chechnya, where evidence suggests he has death squads operating against any dissenters to his rule). But hey, he prides himself on having built some of the largest mosques in the world in the last few years, one of which he (semi-successfully) lobbied to be made into Russia's national symbol. He, by the way, harbours some ambition and support for running for the next president of Russia. Wrap your mind around that Quote:
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03-23-14, 01:39 PM | #783 | |
Gefallen Engel U-666
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Quote:
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"Only two things are infinite; The Universe and human squirrelyness; and I'm not too sure about the Universe" |
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03-23-14, 05:03 PM | #784 |
Born to Run Silent
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Nah, Putin will be "president" for life, that's how dictators operate.
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03-23-14, 05:17 PM | #785 |
Navy Seal
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Well, I think that's giving him a lot of credit - I think it's easy to see him as a dictator, but I would characterize him more as a figurehead (even if a fairly smart and influential one) in a technocratic junta. And those are far more replaceable than actual dictators, especially when there is technical (i.e. political) advantage to be gained from doing so. We saw that happen once already.
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03-23-14, 07:27 PM | #786 |
Lucky Jack
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At the end of the day it depends on how well he serves those who actually run the country, just like any other nation, if he annoys them then he's out.
Of course, who those people are depends on opinion and nation, military, businessmen, mafia, illuminati, aliens... |
03-23-14, 07:40 PM | #787 |
Navy Seal
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In Russia, it's actually possible to talk about such a group - or more likely groups and the balance of power between them. In late 2011, the balance of power there drastically shifted in favour of the so-called "Siloviki" - those who staff the "power ministries", i.e. military, intelligence and state security establishments, most of them rooted in organizational networks and hierarchies that date back to Soviet times. They successfully outmaneuvered, sidelined, repressed or subjugated some of the other prominent powers in Russian politics over the last couple of years, and we see the result. The proper term for this is a junta, and that's exactly what Russia is run by today.
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03-23-14, 09:55 PM | #788 |
Lucky Jack
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I was going to refer to the siloviki, having heard of them from a colleague on another forum, but I wasn't sure what they have been up to over the past year or so.
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03-24-14, 01:29 AM | #789 |
Fleet Admiral
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Running Russia clearly.
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03-24-14, 06:05 AM | #790 |
Chief of the Boat
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Putin will be there until someone backed by more power than those who back him come along.
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03-24-14, 06:43 AM | #791 |
Ace of the Deep
Join Date: Mar 2007
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Putin is riding high now, but the best customers for Russian oil and gas are now actively looking for other sources, as they started five years ago with the unpleasantness in South Ossetia. There is a sense of urgency for that now, which may lead to even less economic and political clout for Russia. Without oil and gas revenue, Russia could be as irrelevant as Ukraine economically.
Overall this move by Putin benefits no one directly, maybe a few nations indirectly. In the short period Putin may see a short rise in popularity due to nationalism, but Crimea is a white elephant for him now, dependent on Russia for it's electricity and potable water. |
03-24-14, 10:05 PM | #792 |
Fleet Admiral
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Maybe not so high for too long. His deputy economy minister has warned they expecting to see about $70bn US of assets being moved out of Russian investments in the first 3 months of this year.
Not enough for a full blown recession but enough stagnation to cause some serious economic problems if the trend continues in the next 3 months. |
03-25-14, 06:09 AM | #793 | |
Ace of the Deep
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Hawkeye State Highlands
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Quote:
Russia is currently riding a bubble of oil revenue that is unsustainable in the long term. All they are achieving right now is persuading their best customers to look elsewhere for their energy. Even if China was willing to buy up all of Russia's production at premium prices that bubble will burst sooner rather than later. Venezuela has made the exact same choice as Putin did: ignore foreign (and domestic) investment and concentrate on exporting raw materials. Doesn't always work in the long term. Especially once the Cult of Personality running the show collapses when the personality departs the stage. |
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03-25-14, 06:24 AM | #794 |
Soaring
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Why shouldn't for Russia work what works for Europe and the US - the paper money? Consider that American state debt now is at 105% of the GDP, and in combination private and public debt together is at I think 350-400% of GDP - nevertheless the body still floats on the water, not because of a good economic situation, which actually is in an alarming condition, but because they still get pushed by the momentum of having printed money like crazy in the past years - with the according longterm consequences.
So will do Russia as well': if they need money, they print it. In the long run, of course it leads to total collapse, no matter whether it is the US, Europe, or Russia. In the end, they all will collapse due to their paper money mountains. The order in which they do, is not really important. China would be all to willing to buy off Russian gasl that the West no longer buys, but currently there is no sufficient infrastructure to transport Russian gas in according quantities to China. Like there is no sufficient infrastructure to transport US gas to Europe, there are not sufficient terminals to load gas tankers, and it is a far more expensive transportation method. Both scenarios would need several years preliminary lead time to become realities.
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03-25-14, 08:11 AM | #795 | |
Navy Seal
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Actually there is a recession in Russia and most people are concerned about it there. Skeptics have suggested that the whole game over Crimea is very much about diverting attention away from what was already a precarious economic situation for Russia to begin with.
Meanwhile in the Ukraine... http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26729273 Quote:
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Tags |
nato, putin, ukraina, ukraine, ukrajna |
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