Huge pro-EU rally grips Ukraine

[Aktungbby]

Can Vladimir the Good be contained? the next bone of contention: http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052748703662804576188522910176218 Behold! The unrecognized Republic of Transnistria! Vlad the Good; enroute to Tansnistria?or Tonto with a few masked men!?? If it's legitimate, why the masks and no military insignia?

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Oberon

Belbak airfield being assaulted by Russian/pro-Russian forces, BTR-80 has knocked down the front gate and an ambulance has arrived. A UAZ has also just appeared. It seems that someone attempted to smash the camera from the ground a few moments before the BTR-80 went for the gate but failed.



EDIT: Camera now torn down by Russian/pro-Russian forces.



One person injured during the assault and shots were fired.

Yes, they appear to be very brave when they know no tangible resistance will be offered.

[mapuc]

The interim government of Ukraine sends regarding Crimea double messages. publicly, they say that they will fight to keep the Crimea. While, unofficially planning an operation to pull all their forces and their families out of there.

I can't get anything but this:

Ukraine has abandoned the Crimea and does not intend to fight to regain the area.

Markus

[Catfish]

Maybe the Ukrainians are afraid they are the next. In the east, there are already some gents preparing an election to vote for giving the Ukraine to Russia, too.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by mapuc

The interim government of Ukraine sends regarding Crimea double messages. publicly, they say that they will fight to keep the Crimea. While, unofficially planning an operation to pull all their forces and their families out of there.

I can't get anything but this:

Ukraine has abandoned the Crimea and does not intend to fight to regain the area.

Markus

The problem being, any action by them will give Putin the excuse he wants to invade the Ukraine.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by mapuc

The interim government of Ukraine sends regarding Crimea double messages. publicly, they say that they will fight to keep the Crimea. While, unofficially planning an operation to pull all their forces and their families out of there.

I can't get anything but this:

Ukraine has abandoned the Crimea and does not intend to fight to regain the area.

Markus

"He who defends everything, defends nothing."

They're pulling back and consolidating, anything they keep in Crimea will probably be confiscated by the Russians anyway, so they need to try and keep whatever they can, case in point the Ukrainian navy which pretty much belongs to Russia now.

Whether the Ukraine will fight to keep Crimea remains to be seen, but my money is on no, they will be too busy trying to keep East Ukraine from peeling off and running to Russia, as well as trying to keep their economy from completely imploding, and trying to get into EU and NATO.

[TarJak]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

The problem being, any action by them will give Putin the excuse he wants to invade the Ukraine.

Given he's already effectively done that, your point is rather moot.

[Onkel Neal]

So, I guess this crisis is all over now and we can get back to normal life? Putin got Crimea, did anyone think he would be stopped by world approval?

[Admiral Halsey]

Originally Posted by Neal Stevens

So, I guess this crisis is all over now and we can get back to normal life? Putin got Crimea, did anyone think he would be stopped by world approval?

It's not necessarily over yet. You read/see/hear the news about the shots fired on the Ukraine military base? The real question is, does anyone think Putin is going to be satisfied with the Crimea alone when Eastern Ukraine also has a large ethnic Russian population"

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Neal Stevens

So, I guess this crisis is all over now and we can get back to normal life? Putin got Crimea, did anyone think he would be stopped by world approval?

Oh, I think this is just the beginning, for us in Europe at least.

[Skybird]

Lets see how those financial (different from general economical=boycott) sanctions work. It seems to cause the Russians huge losses already. Currently, huge streams of capital flee the country.

Moldavia/Transnistria and Eastern Ukraine remain to be issues with uncertain outcome. They may blow up right now. Or in the future, like several states in the ME did due to stupid borderline drawns.

In the end, it was not clever to design the Ukraine as a state in those borders it now claims. It will always be the cause of conflict, due to the internal rifts.

It should be split. The West then shou.l,d boyoctt thge Western Ukraine for as long as criminal pllticians, the fascists and oliogarchs are claiming seats in the power hierarchy. When there have been free elections, then start to economically support them if all the gangsters and Nazis have gone - not before. I do not want my taxes being wasted into a corrupted snake pit of oligarchs and fascists. If it goes like this and in an ideal way, you would then have a situation like in Germany after the war, with Russia and The West competing to prove they can outperform the other side, turning the two halves of the country into showrooms of their policy. The benefiting party would be - the Ukrainians themselves.

Will not voluntarily happen, the EU wants to get ALL of Ukraine.

I think the scenario above is the best scenario possible with the most positive longterm outlooks. Leaviong the #ukmraine as it is now, forcing together what does not match inside it borderds, is only delaying problems' breaking out, and will be the cause of futre conflicts.

Due to the geographic nearness, Transnistria should be seen in this context and linked to this conflict, I think. It is no separate thing.

[CCIP]

I personally don't want to add anything from my behalf - but...

Here is some food for thought, for those of you concerned about the current Russia-Ukraine situation.

I have to point out that I DO NOT agree with this position in the slightest, I oppose Russia's official position in this scenario in the strongest terms possible, and I think these arguments are dangerous, BUT - and that's a bigger but than even Sir Mix-A-Lot would like - I think this is far more important to consider and take seriously than the loads of purely anti-Russian, ill-informed crap being thrown around in Western (especially American) media.

http://pavel-shipilin.livejournal.com/252002.html

Below is a translation for the non-Russian speakers. A much more reasoned explanation of the Russian mindset than I've seen in this thread so far.

(by Pavel Shipilin – “Honestly about Crimea, Russia and the Ukraine)

PUTIN’S PARANOIA

The most convenient explanation for the occupation of the peninsula among Ukrainians is the alleged paranoia of Putin, who has been overcome by imperial ambitions and who is determined to leave his footprint on history as the unifier of Russian lands. It’s a systemic mistake, and can bring with it disastrous results.

If we put emotions aside, the quintessence of Putin’s Crimea speech, and all that’s happened, is in this quote: “We are against a military alliance – and NATO remains exactly that with all its internal processes of military organization – and we are against a military organization having its way beside our border, beside our home and on our historical territories. You know, I just can’t imagine going to Sevastopol to visit NATO sailors. Who, by the way, are great guys in their majority – but better for them to come be our guests in Sevastopol, not vice versa”.

Since you’ve heard all this already but haven’t made the right conclusions, allow me to translate: “We know that the current authorities in Kiev have been planning to hand Crimea and Sevastopol over to US control.”

Noone has any reason to doubt that the president of Russia knows this for certain – every morning, among other documents he receives an intelligence summary. How well he is aware of Ukrainian affairs can be gathered by any neutral observer, even simply from intercepted telephone conversations that by now have become widely known – those between the US deputy secretary of state Victoria Nuland and the American ambassador in the Ukraine Jeffery Piett; between Estonian foreign minister Urmas Paet and the European high commissioner Catherine Ashton. But these two intercepted leaks which were followed by media explosions – that’s just the tip of the iceberg.

As for its invisible part, it might not be voiced, but it is that which has led to the appearance of the “polite men” [pro-Russian militias] in the Crimea. I doubt I will be particularly wrong if I suppose that our overseas partners ordered Yatseniuk [current head of Ukrainian government] to prepare documents for the cancellation of the lease on the Black Sea Fleet base at Sevastopol – and, simultaneously, for the leasing of that base to the US Navy. For example, for a hundred billion dollars paid over 100 years.

Debating whether such a course of events sounds incredible is out of place – smart politicians, like military strategists, use opportunities, not probabilities, in making their decisions. And such an opportunity no doubt existed for Yatseniuk.

The appearance of an American base in the Ukraine would be for us Russians the same as the appearance of Soviet missilies in Cuba in 1962. Of course, you could also consider JFK to have been paranoid – for applying the maximum effort for getting rid of them. And, well, he managed to do it.

Putin also put in all available efforts. And so he managed it.

INTERNAL AFFAIR OF THE UKRAINE

Ukraine has become a state which requires heightened attention on behalf of Russian authorities ever since Yuschenko first came to power and announced his intentions to join NATO. So it was the Ukraine, not Russia, which first announced its hostility.

The activity of NATO, as you know, has long made us nervous. But just in case, it is clearly stated in our constitutional Concept of National Security, which which existed in those times: among primary threats in the international sphere, large military-political blocs and alliances were named, and topmost among them – the expansion of NATO eastwards and the possibility of military bases and large military contingents appearing on our borders. Therefore, the Ukrainian government of 2005-2010 was fully aware that we considered their intentions to join NATO a national security threat. But that didn’t stop anyone.

At the same time, sharp discussions began between Russians and aggressively-minded Ukrainians on whether this is Ukraine’s internal business. Today, after the Crimean events, one can say confidently: as much as the basing of Soviet missiles next to US shores was the internal business of Cubans.

Therefore, one has to unambiguously understand that Russia can in no circumstance allow a hostile military bloc to be based in a bordering country. What means and justifications will be used for this is irrelevant.

In 2010, a new official military doctrine was accepted, which the Ukrainians must have studied very carefully, if they consider themselves responsible patriots of a sovereign state. In it, besides the threats mentioned in the Concept of National Security were added external military threats, which have a direct connection to modern Ukraine. For example, the following:

-the basing (strengthening) of military contingents of foreign nations (or groups of nations) on territories of states bordering the Russian Federation, and also in their territorial waters;
-the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, missiles and rocket technology, the increase in the number of states possessing nuclear weapons;
-the use of force on territories adjacent to the borders of the Russian federation in violation of the UN Charter and other norms of international law;
-the appearance and escalation of armed conflicts on territories bordering the Russian Federation and her allied states;
-the spread of international terrorism;
-the appearance of problem areas of inter-ethnic (inter-religious) tensions, activity by international armed militant groups in areas along the state border of the Russian Federation and the borders of her allies, and also the presence of territorial disputes, growth of separatist movements and violent (religious) extremism in particular parts of the world.

In other words, the Ukrainians were honestly warned that moving forces (or declaring a general mobilization), activity of the “Right Sector” who threatened us terrorist acts or incursions, insults towards Russians and even the discussion of nuclear re-armament are all perceived by Russia as threats. Of course, you can continue in the same spirit, not paying attention to our concerns, because a Military Doctrine – that’s merely a declaration. But when doing so, you must realize clearly that you are taking very, very serious risks.

What happens in bordering territories affects us very directly. This must simply be accepted as a given.

FRIENDLY RELATIONS AS A GUARANTEE OF SOVEREIGNTY

I must disappoint the Ukrainians here: you’ve lost Crimea forever. But, as I tried to explain above, there’s no fault of ours here – you have to ask your leaders, from Yuschenko to Yatseniuk and Turchinov, to be accountable here. They methodically prepared its departure, without paying heed to warnings.

I’ll tell you honestly: after it all happened, we all breathed a sigh of relief here in Russia. Now nobody will be able to strike matches out there in Kiev, in the name of self-assertion, they won’t be able to get their traffic police to stop our military vehicles carrying navy rockets. Noone in the Ukrainan parliament will put into question the presence of the Black Sea Fleet and won’t invite American ships into Feodisia or Sevastopol. Instead of putting out fires over and over, we just took away your matchbox. For, sorry, children shouldn’t play with matches – we’re creating a defense against our American partners, we’re putting billions into defense, intelligence, diplomacy… And you’re here with your traffic police.

Sevastopol and the Crimea will always be strategically important to our national security, and the only ones unable to understand this are those, who only see the world from the stage on the Maidan. You can’t pressure us out of there, just like you wouldn’t be able to remove the Americans from Guantanamo or Okinawa. Strange that one has to explain the obvious here.

However, a new danger has appeared to you today – the possibility of other territories leaving to stay under Russia’s wing. And, again, because of your domestic problems. If you’re trying to avoid this, you’ll have to put in some effort.

FIRSTLY, you have to pacify the banderovtsy [right-wing nationalists]. You don’t need to prove to us anymore that their numbers aren’t large, and we just watched too much Russian TV and too many clips on Youtube, and in reality there aren’t too many nationalists. Since they’re so marginal, get rid of all the representatives of the “Freedom” party in your parliament. Can you?
For Ukraine, that’s crucially important. Because every word and action of Dmitry Yarosh, Sashko Biloy, Andrei Parubia and other Tyagniboks, Farions and Miroshnichenkos [nationalist leaders] increases the probability that Russia will solve the problem of your “marginals and clowns” on its own – see the Military Doctrine. And perhaps they’ll do so even with Europe’s cooperation.

SECONDLY, the Ukraine must turn itself into a purely peaceful and cooperatively-disposed state towards us and towards its own citizens. Stop deluding yourself with rumors that the devious Putin is dreaming of springing a cowardly attack on you at the most inconvenient moment, and that you have to arm yourselves to prepare for it.
You’ve understood precisely the opposite of what you should’ve from all this.
If the Ukraine cuts up its tanks, airplanes and air defense systems into scrap, our interest towards you will immediately disappear. It might sound paradoxical, but that’s how it is: to keep its present borders, the Ukraine must stop trying to look threatening.

THIRDLY, all discussions of joining NATO, especially at the highest level, must be treated as treasonous. Because, you can be certain, the next loss of territory will come sooner than your country will be able to sign the declaration to join the military alliance. Don’t step on the rake again. The answer to your eternal question of: “Why us?” can be found directly in the Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation.

FOURTHLY, make Russian a state language, finally. This will immediately relieve the tension and automatically turn the populace of the South-East into your allies and Ukrainian patriots. Today they’re enemies, but enemies by necessity – the only thing making them stand up against central government is the central government.
Pay attention: the Crimea has three official languages – that’s practically the first thing that Putin did to calm down the local population. A new mosque will soon be completed in Simferopol, and of course, new Ukraian and Tatar schools will be opened. Take that as an example – it’s not hard.

FIFTHLY, start reformatting the consciousness of your compatriots who are used to the idea that Russia is Ukraine’s greatest enemy. Tell the hotheads that between the slogan “he who doesn’t jump is a Moskal [Russian]” and the loss of the Crimea there is a direct causal connection. Tomorrow’s slogan is “Moskal is a Ukrainian’s best friend”. And that is pure truth.

But most importantly, SIXTHLY: Ukraine and the Ukrainians have to seriously rethink their place in the world. However harsh it sounds, but you’re not an empire anymore, but a medium-sized state – with all the pluses and minuses consequent to that. You have to change your politics, rhetoric and behaviour. There should be neither threats nor ultimatums heard from Kiev – that’s not for you anymore. You have to learn to achieve your aims only through negotiation.

And please, don’t stand between geopolitical enemies – that is the greatest mistake you’re making. In any scenario, you’ll be the ones who lose, not us.

To preserve your country, you need not tanks and airplanes, but tractors and harvesters. You need to rein in your hawks, which always fly around the world, provoking serious powers and trying to drag them into military conflicts. Precisely the Yatseniuks, Turchinovs and Parubiis, and not Russia, are the threat to your territorial integrity.

Get the stupid thought out of your head that we need your land – we just need a calm, reliable border. And friendly neighbourly relations, if you don’t want alliance.

At least in this, can we find a common language?

[Skybird]

Yes to that ^. I said myself on the Scottish referendum that the Scots have any natural right life provides you with when you get born to be independent. I say the same abouit the Venetians who currently have or had a referendum. I would accept if the Bavarians in Germany say they want to leave.

But you have to be able to afford your independence. Financially. Economically. Strategically. You have no right to claim independence, and then demand others to pay for you, straighten your bills, maintain you. And if you think of it: if you live like that, you are not really independent anyway.

Same is true with Kosovo. I still shake my head in disbelief that they allowed this unfit-for-survival creation to be given birth to.


---

On another sidenote, I think it is appropriate that one puts the Ukrainian crisis into its proper relation, even if it widens to Eastern Ukraine and Moldavia as well. It's still a picnic. In a time when German newspapers can seriously come out with headlines like "From the Ukraine to third world war" - and get away with that without any objections to such nonsense, I remind of hotspots in the world that are burning much hotter than the Ukraine, that all hold much more potential for hugh disaster, and many of them already kill people by the thousands and tens of thousands and hundreds of thousands. And some of them COULD lead to a global war indeed.

North Korea.

Afghanistan.

Sudan.

Kongo.

Iran.

Taiwan.

Israel.

Cashmere.

Northern Caucasus.

Thailand.

Senkaku Islands.

Mali.

Nigeria.

Myanmar.

Kongo.


The charme of the Ukraine crisis is, that it creates new headlines that media can report and start many talkshows about. The other conflicts listed already feel somewhat worn-out.

[Skybird]

And this:

And please, don’t stand between geopolitical enemies – that is the greatest mistake you’re making. In any scenario, you’ll be the ones who lose, not us.

This cannot be reiterated often enough. In the Ukraine's very own interest. History holds so many examples how countries and people got caught between superior powers, and got crunshed as a result.

Russia and the EU/NATO/US are no partners, but geopolitical rivals with differeing views, different values, and totally different, often antagonistic strategic demands and necessities. This gets ignored too often in the West, in an attempt especially in Europe to nice-talk things and deny any potential for conflict , so that one can play on the game of assuming that Russia and Europa are all just one big happy family.


China yesterday let it's media announce that Russian resistence to the West is a very important contribution to a better world. Well, go figure.

[MH]

FIRSTLY, you have to pacify the banderovtsy [right-wing nationalists]. You don’t need to prove to us anymore that their numbers aren’t large, and we just watched too much Russian TV and too many clips on Youtube, and in reality there aren’t too many nationalists. Since they’re so marginal, get rid of all the representatives of the “Freedom” party in your parliament. Can you?
For Ukraine, that’s crucially important. Because every word and action of Dmitry Yarosh, Sashko Biloy, Andrei Parubia and other Tyagniboks, Farions and Miroshnichenkos [nationalist leaders] increases the probability that Russia will solve the problem of your “marginals and clowns” on its own – see the Military Doctrine. And perhaps they’ll do so even with Europe’s cooperation.

SECONDLY, the Ukraine must turn itself into a purely peaceful and cooperatively-disposed state towards us and towards its own citizens. Stop deluding yourself with rumors that the devious Putin is dreaming of springing a cowardly attack on you at the most inconvenient moment, and that you have to arm yourselves to prepare for it.
You’ve understood precisely the opposite of what you should’ve from all this.
If the Ukraine cuts up its tanks, airplanes and air defense systems into scrap, our interest towards you will immediately disappear. It might sound paradoxical, but that’s how it is: to keep its present borders, the Ukraine must stop trying to look threatening.

THIRDLY, all discussions of joining NATO, especially at the highest level, must be treated as treasonous. Because, you can be certain, the next loss of territory will come sooner than your country will be able to sign the declaration to join the military alliance. Don’t step on the rake again. The answer to your eternal question of: “Why us?” can be found directly in the Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation.

FOURTHLY, make Russian a state language, finally. This will immediately relieve the tension and automatically turn the populace of the South-East into your allies and Ukrainian patriots. Today they’re enemies, but enemies by necessity – the only thing making them stand up against central government is the central government.
Pay attention: the Crimea has three official languages – that’s practically the first thing that Putin did to calm down the local population. A new mosque will soon be completed in Simferopol, and of course, new Ukraian and Tatar schools will be opened. Take that as an example – it’s not hard.

FIFTHLY, start reformatting the consciousness of your compatriots who are used to the idea that Russia is Ukraine’s greatest enemy. Tell the hotheads that between the slogan “he who doesn’t jump is a Moskal [Russian]” and the loss of the Crimea there is a direct causal connection. Tomorrow’s slogan is “Moskal is a Ukrainian’s best friend”. And that is pure truth.

1) I don't know about the right wingers in Ukraine but Putin is playing with fascism himself.

2) Ukrainian military is bunch of garbage that cannot threaten Russia.
What is it all about....did Ukraine threaten to invade Russia?
Where are Ukrainian Nukes?

3) Treason?...though that Ukraine was independent.

4) Putin is building Mosques...give me a break. with all the rest of this paragraph.

5) Judging by recent history Russia has a lot to do to change this mindset.
Actually it did...

But yes.... this is one of those points of view....