Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Three freighters ignored the wanigns by Russia and headed for Ukraine, under close surveillance by NATO planes. The yuhave reahce dtheir desotnaiton harbour and will be loaded with grain.

It is not known whether Russia's navy was unwilling or unable to intercept them. We will never known if NATO would have militarily intervened with its planes if the Russians would have escalated .

The Russians imo, and I may be wrong here, would have little legal argument if they would attack international ships inside 12nm territorial waters of sovereign states that are NATO members. If freighters leaving Ukraine harbours make it through Ukrainian or international waters and then into the national waters of Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey and to the Bosporus, from a legal standpoint they would be "safe" from the moment on they slide from ukrianain into Romanian waters. Or not? Anyone knowing the specific details of this scenario?

Do not forget China, the main importer of Ukraine grain this import is very important strategical for China an alternative for western grain wonder how happy Xi is with Putin now.

The Russian navy has allowed three cargo ships (Cargo ships, including those flying the Israeli and Greek flags.) to sail unhindered to the Ukrainian port of Izmajil. The ships safely docked Sunday at the port near the Black Sea, which Ukraine uses to export grain. Izmajil is over 200 kilometres south of Odesa, Ukraine's largest port city. Grain exports from Odesa and two other major Ukrainian ports have been closed since Russia cancelled the grain deal. Russia may still stop the three ships as they set course for the Bosporus, should they have picked up grain or other agricultural products. That the Russian navy did not intervene on Sunday is notable because the three cargo ships could easily be tracked. Their transponders made their course and location easily visible. It seems that Russian military is unwilling or unable to forcibly stop and search neutral ships sailing through the Black Sea to Ukraine.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Skybird

If that were true, it means Russia can attack ships in NATO's territorial waters (12nm zone) without consequences. Thinking that to the end means Russia can also shoot down planes in NATO airpace without NATO reacting to that.

I think if that were true, and by guts feeling I doubt it, then NATO can do itself away and leave the stage of history, because then one must expect that even a Russian attack on NATO soil would not have an according reaction. What use would NATO then have?

Yiu and I are both well aware that NATO is primarily a defensive force but there are limits to that stance and a Russian attack on international shipping would almost certainly be a 'red line' for NATO.

It is for Putin to make the next move and I believe he is still quite a way from exercising his nuclear option.

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Yiu and I are both well aware that NATO is primarily a defensive force but there are limits to that stance and a Russian attack on international shipping would almost certainly be a 'red line' for NATO.

It is for Putin to make the next move and I believe he is still quite a way from exercising his nuclear option.

Those that really push claims of authority over international waters and trade routes end up like Muammar Gaddafi. Cuba claims some parts of the Old Bahama Channel, but everyone just ignores them.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

Those that really push claims of authority over international waters and trade routes end up like Muammar Gaddafi. Cuba claims some parts of the Old Bahama Channel, but everyone just ignores them.

Oh I think Putin is in a different league to your two examples and is capable of causing a lot more damage.

Let him try, that's what I say.

[mapuc]

Let's hope Ukrainian manage to take all the land towards Crimea in the next couple of month.

Going to be interesting if they do, to see Russia's bluff.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Let's hope Ukrainian manage to take all the land towards Crimea in the next couple of month.

Going to be interesting if they do, to see Russia's bluff.

Markus

It is bluff but hope they are stupid and start blockade vessels to Ukraine all their ships will be in range of Ukraine anti-ship cruise missiles.

[Catfish]

^ true, but not so easy with the Kilos .. still when Sevastopol falls and comes back to Ukraine Putin will have a hard time for maintenance and re-arming.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Catfish

^ true, but not so easy with the Kilos .. still when Sevastopol falls and comes back to Ukraine Putin will have a hard time for maintenance and re-arming.

Attacking neutral ships is against international laws so is a blockade note that one ship on Sunday was from Turkey any confrontation between Russia and Turkey could be seen as an attack on a NATO member and Turkey has the key to the Black Sea do not think Russia wants to lose the access to the Black Sea Turkey can blockade any Russian ship, so Russia can not trade grain.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Attacking neutral ships is against international laws so is a blockade note that one ship on Sunday was from Turkey any confrontation between Russia and Turkey could be seen as an attack on a NATO member and Turkey has the key to the Black Sea do not think Russia wants to lose the access to the Black Sea Turkey can blockade any Russian ship, so Russia can not trade grain.

In my ears it sounds like desperation.

All these teeth less threats is what it is.

Markus

[Dargo]

Over the past 24 hours, at least 12 military enlistment offices have been set ablaze all over Russia, from St. Petersburg to Ulan-Ude (video).
Remarkably, most of these incidents were carried out by women.
https://twitter.com/StateOfUkraine/s...05411023298561

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

In my ears it sounds like desperation.

All these teeth less threats is what it is.

Markus

Correct it is desperation Putin has pumped +10% of the Russian state money in this war, the result it failed. He is desperate this war is his fate, he can not stop it without shooting himself any lose or peace will remove him from power. The great Russia is an illusion it is a poorhouse except for Moscow that is all, totally corrupt will never get things done under this regime.

[Skybird]

My question was whether shipping would be save if taking place inside the 12nm zone of Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Correct it is desperation Putin has pumped +10% of the Russian state money in this war, the result it failed. He is desperate this war is his fate, he can not stop it without shooting himself any lose or peace will remove him from power. The great Russia is an illusion it is a poorhouse except for Moscow that is all, totally corrupt will never get things done under this regime.

Economy isn't exactly my strongest field.

I know how to balance my own economy.

Which country is most corrupt among these two combatant ?

There's rumour going around here in Denmark that the Danish intelligent service is monitoring those Danes who is either critical towards Ukraine and/or support Russia.

It has been some article about it-Where PET and FET said they hadn't any comment.

Markus

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

My question was whether shipping would be save if taking place inside the 12nm zone of Romania, Bulgaria, Turkey.

With my little knowledge I would say Yes with 100 % certainty.

Russia may be desperate but I don't thing that they are this desperate.

Markus

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Oh I think Putin is in a different league to your two examples and is capable of causing a lot more damage.

Let him try, that's what I say.

And China? They claim new territory and waters as their own too and expect everyone to abide by their laws and jurisdiction. We send a message that we do not recognize their claims by sending our armed fleets through their backyard in defiance.

Even Russia knows full well it can’t arbitrarily start sinking ships no matter what flag they fly. Hell, if those ships are in international waters they can’t can’t even board them without permission of the flag state.