The Turkish-Kurdish Dilemma

[August]

Originally Posted by Skybird

US special forces commanders feeling ashamed.

That's too bad.

Special Forces commanders also felt ashamed when we abandoned the Montagnards and the Hmong and the Cuban Democratic Front or any number of others through the years and they'll be upset when we finally pull out of Afghanistan too. Mark my words.
I'm sure that SF commanders and other professional military types will decry the lost opportunities for promotions and medals but we can't stay over there forever playing terrorist group whack-a-mole and loosing our own people in the process. Maybe if we were making progress it'd be different but we aren't.

The mere 50 troops that we had on the Syrian/Turkish border were nothing but a tripwire to start a shooting war between us and Turkey.

[Jimbuna]

Syria's army has started to reach the north of the country, hours after the government agreed to help Kurdish forces facing Turkey.

State media said government forces, which are backed by Russia, had entered the strategic town of Tal Tamer, 30km (19 miles) south of the Turkish border.

For now, Syrian forces will not be deployed between Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ain, where Turkey has focused its efforts.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-50039106

It looks like neither side want to create a major conflict so heaven only knows what will happen next.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

By reading Skybird's comments and the rest in my thread and watching the news I wonder if Turkey have, by starting this invasion of northern Syria, opened the Pandora's Box. Not fully open but a tiny bit.

Turkey has had fighter son the ground south of the border since years. Only the scale of the operation has chnaged.

What can our politicians or Presidents do ?

Nothing. Militarily too weak, too afraid, too much driven by special self itnerests (selling weapons, etc etc)

They can put sanction, embargo and some other diplomatically stuff against Turkey.

Just today the NATO governments could jto even agree to stop all wepaon deioveries to Turkey. Stoltenberg left it to a vague suggestion not to döeiver them any weapons. Evberybody is afraid that The Turkish attack will be relabeled by An kara has a defence against Kurish terror and so: article 5. Nobody has the guts to confront the Turks and tell them: this way no way! Becasue Erdoghan threatens to open the floodgates that Merkel helped him to build to be used for future - and now present - blackmailing of Europe.

No fly-zone would this be an option ? Well knowing that bureaucracy is a high factor in every country, it could take years before this would be a reality.

Who to enforce it? The Russian have established strong SAM umbrellas there. Any European attempt - not to mention the German attempt LOL - to enforce a no fly zone with own fighters there would totally depend on the Russians showing good will. Russia has not so much good will - Russia has interests. I totally object to military operations - always - of any kind that depend on the good will of a rival or potential enemy.

And if it happened -the UN decided to create a no fly-zone over the Northern part of Syria, how eager would the western politicians be to give the order to attack an another member of NATO ?

The Europeans do not even stop the official EU membership candidate status of Turkey, nor do they even threaten to stop payments to Ankara. German foreing minister suggst a dialogue instead.

Oh forgot something.
Can remember which one of you, my memory says Skybird, who once wrote that in the case a NATO member is attacked this Article 5 is not given...the politicians in the rest of the NATO, would hire/engage lawyers and Jurist to do what is needed to prevent or questioning this article 5.

Yes, both true. It was me, and article 5 indeed is not automatically forcing every member to indeed agree to that its conditions are fulfilled and so every nation must send help to the attacked nation. That is still so. A governbment can weasel out by disagreeing that the preconditions for activating article 5 are met. A very important legal criterion - not left in the formulation for no reason. States are not obligated to participate in NATO's military reaction because one members claims to be under attack or because the other states activate article 5, but because the individual goverment agrees to that article 5's necessary preconditions - a memeber is indeed under attack - is fulfilled.



Its the individual government's option to agree or disagree with NATO that an article 5 situation is given. The formulation is such that indeed there is a vagueness allowing to use a backdoor as an escape hatch. ASnd I absoltuely think that wa sintgentionally done this way. No government likes to be at the full mercy of others and to give up power over its own military policy. For this reason and due to its ties to the Balkan states states and culutrla closeness to the Russian orthodox church and its own pllticla closeness to marxism (it has always had a strong political left), Greece for example always was seen as an uncertain NATO member during the hot years of the cold war. Of course noboody admitted that. But I doubt that in case of the cold war turnign hot, indeed all NATO members would have been one united strong family.


Its not me saying this on article 5, but it has been law experts and historians alike. I just repeat what some of these said and wrote. Diplomatic pressure of course would be immense, so would be the threat of cretaing plltical costs and falloput even by sanciuto9nsiing the nation refusing to agree with an article 5 scneairo when alkl others agree to it.



But what if several nations refuse to accepot its valid activation...? LOL Like some natiosn also refuse to accept Brussels' commands on enforced migration.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

Heard on NPR today "the Kurdish militia" has sided with Bashar Hafez al-Assad's government to stand against attacks by Turkey into Syria. However what they failed to mention was WHICH Kurdish militia faction did so.

The Kurdish self-administration and its structures were based mainly on the YPG, and already has almost completely collapsed after the past 4 days. Having been the core of this structure, its most likely remnants of the YPG now being left.

The Kurds having run one third of Syria and self-administration without doubt now gone, this is a very good deal for Assad. But even if the Turks get driven out, the Kurds must then flee again - from Assad.

[Rockstar]

I also heard on the news that Russia, Turkey and Syria were in talks attempting to construct a demilitarized zone between Syrian and Turkish forces.

[Catfish]

If Erdoghan did anything positive it was to finally unite the Kurds.

Turkey obviously is hell-Bound for a genocide, and the Kurds did the only thing they thought helped them, after the West has betrayed them.
Assad and Putin must be celebrating.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

I also heard on the news that Russia, Turkey and Syria were in talks attempting to construct a demilitarized zone between Syrian and Turkish forces.

Yes, and it means that Putin is the biggest winner of all this. It installs Russia as the indispensable mediator in Syria. Nothing goes anymore without his nodding and against his will. Bringing Turkey away from the west also means mounting tensions inside NATO, by these a distraction of NATO from the Black Sea region (where there is Turkey'S coastline and the Crimnean peninsula), and more wedges pushed deep into the rift between America and Europe.


Champagne in Moscow these days.

[ikalugin]

Originally Posted by Skybird

The Kurdish self-administration and its structures were based mainly on the YPG, and already has almost completely collapsed after the past 4 days. Having been the core of this structure, its most likely remnants of the YPG now being left.

The Kurds having run one third of Syria and self-administration without doubt now gone, this is a very good deal for Assad. But even if the Turks get driven out, the Kurds must then flee again - from Assad.

Under Assad Kurds can work out a better deal for autonomy, etc, as Assad has many other problems to work with and he does not have any Kurd specific grievances from what I recall.

Same applies to Russia - we have been flexible in the past, with pro-Turkish groups for example.

[mapuc]

Read this in the Swedish news some hours ago

(have used google translate)

It is still unclear what role Russia will play since its allies in the Syrian army decided to fight against Turkey's offensive.

Contacts have been made between the countries, both at political and military level, said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov
at a press conference on Monday.

Peskov also said that they "do not want
think of "a military conflict
with Turkey, writes the Moscow Times.
(should this happen. I'm almost 100 % sure the other NATO members would say
things like You(Turkey)provoke this attack article 5 is not activated)

Relations between the countries have
improved in recent years, despite the fact that they
supports various sides of the war in Syria.

Markus

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Catfish

If Erdoghan did anything positive it was to finally unite the Kurds.

Turkey obviously is hell-Bound for a genocide, and the Kurds did the only thing they thought helped them, after the West has betrayed them.
Assad and Putin must be celebrating.

For years we have told to believe to see the Kurds as one group fighting for, can you guess? That's right, freedom and democracy!

But I tend to think there are divisions, tribes within tribes and uniting the Kurds I doubt could ever happen. In fact Id wager the faction which sided with Syria is probably all too happy to see the others now considered as rebels and get shot too pieces by Syria or by Turkey.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by ikalugin

Under Assad Kurds can work out a better deal for autonomy, etc, as Assad has many other problems to work with and he does not have any Kurd specific grievances from what I recall.

Same applies to Russia - we have been flexible in the past, with pro-Turkish groups for example.

We know since years that where the Syrians won in the past years, and Kurds were defeated and stayed, identified opponents of Assad got brought down. They have all reason to fear retaliation. Like the father, so the son.

[eddie]

And now General Bone Spurs and his unmatched wisdom, has opened a highway for Iran to send weapons to Hezbollah, with no one to stop it. Got to puke over his so called wisdom!

[August]

Wow those 50 US troops were sure busy!

[Jimbuna]

The US has imposed sanctions on Turkish ministries and senior government officials in response to the country's military offensive in northern Syria.

President Donald Trump also phoned his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan to demand an immediate truce, Vice-President Mike Pence said.

Mr Pence said he would travel to the region "as quickly as possible".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-50050264

What was it Todd/Lehmann once taught me the meaning of?

'A day late and a dollar short'

[Skybird]

Obviously Erdoghan has seen no reaosn at all to understand his earlier phone call with Trump the way Pence now describes that it had been back then. Somebody tries to get the toothpaste back into the tube after he squeezed it.