The Turkish-Kurdish Dilemma

mapuc · 10-13-19, 03:27 PM

I know we are discussing this in our US-Politics thread

I feel after hearing and watching the lastes news on this subject, a separate thread is needed.

In the lastest news I have heard the Syrian government have sent troops to engage the Turkish military who have invaded Northern Syria.

Immediately some questions popped up in my head.

1. Iran, Iran is what I know Syria's closest allied.
When and how will they assist Assad, if he need support ?

2. Russia, Russia is also one of Syria's closest allied and friend.
How will they assist Assad, if he need support ?
They are also in selling-mode friend with Turkey.

Markus

Skybird · 10-13-19, 04:31 PM

1. Usually the Shia-Sunnio rivalry between Saudia Arabia and Iran gets a lot of attention - that Turkey also has ambitions to be the ruling dominator in the region often is overlooked. However, the Turks are no Arabs, and have a bad reputation amongst Arabs due to their brutal tyranny during the Ottoman empire. Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey all are rivals. Syria wanted to be that as well, so wanted Egypt, but both are busy with their own homework now.

Iran already supports Assad, with logistics, training, wepaons, special troops, intel. They probbaly will not themselves confront Turkish troops, since they already are in danger of getting a collision with the US in the Gulf. And why should they want that? For Iran, Syria is its proxy.

2. Russia, they will keep in mind that Turkey is a NATO member, formally at least, which of cours eis just a bad joke by now. Opening fire on Turkish military themselves could be the opening to an article 5 scenario, something that Turkey tries to trigger already now for its invasion of Syria. On the other side Moscow will not forget that the rifts between the US and Turkey are widening, and if they see a realistic chance to benefit from that rift and get away with striking Turkey due to Washington being too pissed by Turkey as if it would care any longer, they maybe will do. Syria for them is not just a proxy, but also a standing leg in the Mediterranean, they must balance between pleasing Assad and not getting drawn into a brawl that they do not want.

In other words: things are a bit complicated. Which is an understatement.

Note that I do not metion Europe. It plays no role here and is busy with dwarfening itsel further and further.

The Turks once again give evidence for why I am so strictly disliking them.

Bad fate for the Kurds. But they could have known that Washington would betray them. If I weere Europe, I would deliver them really strong SAM and ATGM weapons to knock turkish military out. And I would close the border to Turkey and send a strionbg fleet into the Adraeatic sea, selaing it off for migrants and Turkish navy as well. NBote that Turkey plays with fire offshore Cyprus as well, they want to claim the control of the gas fields there.

As I said, its all a bit complicated. The Kurds do pay the price once again. Its a ####### shame.

Libertarian that I am I of course support their natural right to decide for themselves if they want to be governed by foreign dictators or not. The claim by Turkey is invalid and a crime in itself. I am consistent there with my earlier opinions on independence movements in other regions.

I agree with the American pullout in principle. I however strictly oppose the conditions and circumstances and timing by which Trump has agreed to do so because Erdoghan wanted it. He took the most brutal way out, and not Americans but Kurds are bleeding for it. That is cyncial, and murderous.

Moscow giggles. And delivers Russian SAMs to Turkey and widneing the gap between the US and Turkey by that. Yes, they have no imminent need to react to anything, they collect dividends best by simply doing nothing and leaving their diplomatic game to like it is. Probably nobody in Syria is in such a comfortale position, like Russia. Putin realised the potential of the Syrian option early, long before the EU or Washington did, and set his bet on playing it strong. It pays off.

mapuc · 10-13-19, 04:45 PM

You are right it's very complicated

As some military expert said on Danish TV earlier

Now where Assad have sent his troops to engage the Turkish invasion the situation may turn from bad to worse.

Edit

Iran-I don't think the government in Teheran will send ordinary troops and equipment. I think they will encourage Iranian who have the skill to fight, to help Assad
I don't know how and if the R.G. will act if Assad needs help.

End of edit

Markus

Mr Quatro · 10-13-19, 07:03 PM

@Sky Europe does play an important role they have taken in over a million refugees ...

August · 10-13-19, 07:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr Quatro

@Sky Europe does play an important role they have taken in over a million refugees ...

I'll bet they will be taking in a whole lot more too once Erdogan opens the floodgates.

Skybird · 10-13-19, 07:56 PM

The Arab League has condemned the Turkish invasion. Interestingly, Quatar, which was supported by Erdoghan in its conflict with Saudi arabia, shared the condemnation. So did the Palestinian Arabs - while in the past Erdoghan had posed as their advocate. Erdoghan can forget to "bribe" Arabs into liking the Turks by using soft power in their interest, so to make the Ottoman terror reign forgotten and a memory of the past - the old Arab ressentiment and even hate for the Turks has been revived by Erdoghan, already since his hidden support for the IS.

Many radical Islamists are fighting for the Turks, and reports have emerged that they are not any less barbaric and inhumane as the IS was. There are reports of mass executions of civilian Kurds, murdering of prisoners, and torture and atrocities. Mind you, Erdoghan already assisted the IS and granted them safe havens, medical treatment and supply centres on Turkish soil close behind the border years ago.

Kick Turkey out of NATO. What else must Erdoghan do to make Westerners understand what war criminal and terroist they pay court to? I think in no other country on the globe so many journalists and academics have been thrown into rpisonk, like in Erdoghan's AKP-Turkey. Oh, and stop gpoing o9n vacation in Turkey. Nothing threatens his power as much as big parts of business people and entrepreneurs turnign against him. Its wrong to argue that they are innocent and shall be saved. Give them a reason to be existentially angry at Erdoghan. Boycott their businesses.

The water and land border to Turkey must also be sealed off and militarily guarded - by forces from all across of Europe. Erdoghan threatens since days to open the floodgate. All credits go to Merkel. Europe's vulnerability to the Turkish blackmailing is her work and her "deal".

Another big deal maker. Oh my, there are already three of these...

While the political order of the West is splitting up into pieces, these populists seem to enjoy a nesting boom.

Skybird · 10-13-19, 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr Quatro

@Sky Europe does play an important role they have taken in over a million refugees ...

Thats not the kind of role it should play. Most of these "refugees" will not go back, never. And in germany the govenrments sdtatistics just recently showed that the overhwelming majority of them doe snot work and actively refuses both working and integration. Less than 20% are currently work - and in the low wage sector. Jobs that will be the first being shut down once recession strikes in full. Migrant-committed crime however is thriving.

https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/1...ndinavia-crime

Its not different in Germany.

Else, what Europe does, is: nothing and by that displaying its impotence and weakness. Not even the money paid to Ankara gets stopped. Not even the status as formal EU candidate gets altered. NOTHING.

https://translate.google.de/translat...ut-europaij%2F

Skybird · 10-14-19, 07:02 AM

Severla European polticians, Asselblom leading them apparently, wanred that is Syrian troops confront Turkish troops, this would trigger article 5 of the NATO treaty. But that trigger is in case of an attack on a NATO member. Turkey is not th eone being attacked, it is the one attacking others, violati8ng the sovereignt yof another nation unprvoked, and is the one thjat syria rightfullyx reserves the right to defend against.

How the hell could Turkey be rewarded by article 5 when they attack others first...?

Meanwhile, the German foreign minster showed the skillful art and high potence of German diplomacy in this crisis. He suggested that one should have a dialogue with Ankara. Bravo. Germany does once again what it does best. Please be so kind and excuse me for my nationality - I had no word in choosing the place of my birth.

Since decades the Germans have armed Turkey up from toes to teeth, warning them that they should not use the material and weapons in a conflict. But the whole German posture always was just carrots without whips.

Anyhow, activating article 5 means little if the Americans do not play in that team, and I doubt they would. And the Europeans would be insane to launch war against Russia in Syria. Washington has mad eit clear with the recent day'S events that they intend to leave problems in the backyard of Europe - to the Eurpopeans if these feel concerned.

Skybird · 10-14-19, 07:18 AM

That the Kurds struck a deal with assad most likely also means the end of their current amount of autonomy. Profiteers are Assad, Russia, and Iran.

Loosers are the Kurds (but not as much as if they would face Turkey all alone), and indirectly Israeli interests.

For Turkey it possibly could, and hopefully will, turn into a boomerang.

ikalugin · 10-14-19, 08:34 AM

I think we may be seeing some sort of mediation that would allow everyone to save face.

Jimbuna · 10-14-19, 08:37 AM

The Kurds are on a hiding to nothing whichever way it pans out and as sad as it sounds, only Assad can save them.

They could always repay their western 'friends' by releasing all those IS people in the camps.

Skybird · 10-14-19, 10:25 AM

"A Mr. Maas from Germany asks if we could maybe
brush over the lettering on the tail."

(Maas is the apprentice at the top of the German foreign ministry whom hopeless optimists do not mind to refer to as the "foreign minister".

He is the one I mentioned before who suggested to react to Ankara's invasion by having a dialogue with Erdoghan).

Skybird · 10-14-19, 11:01 AM

US special forces commanders feeling ashamed.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/13/w...gtype=Homepage

Troops and officers also felt ashamed when being ordered to sit on the fence in 1991 and watching Saddam'S gunships massacring the Shia rebels. I recall a message in Newsweek from back then that really went under my skin, how it pushed the mood into the dumps, and stirred quite some anger at Bush. At that time, Saddam was not allowed to operate his air force in the embattled region. The gunships however were left to him - to make his massacre more effective. Those who were slauightered there, dared toi rise only due to encouragement and promise for assisdtane by Washington.

A big power wanting to be a biog power, will turn agai8nst its allies if it sees the need and interest to do so. Else it wiull neve rbecome and cannot stay a majopr playxer in the big global arenma. Still, when it acts like a traitor this way, it nevertehless gives a pitiful sight. And what it means for the moral of US troops on the ground in the region - well, use your imagination. Some may be happy to go home. But I tell you, many feel ashamed as well.

And Trumps tweets on the issue, quite some of them, are so sick and disconnected from reality and illustrate such a derranged, confused mind that they are simply just infuriating and leaves one wondering why any American can still believe that he is not mentally insane, sick.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Donald on Twitter

As I have stated strongly before, and just to reiterate, if Turkey does anything that I, in my great and unmatched wisdom, consider to be off limits, I will totally destroy and obliterate the Economy of Turkey (I’ve done before!).

A German word comes to mind: Caesarenwahn. We once had a little Gefreiten from Austria who thought himself to be the greatest Heerführer ever. It later showed he wasn't.

August · 10-14-19, 11:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

The Kurds are on a hiding to nothing whichever way it pans out and as sad as it sounds, only Assad can save them.

They could always repay their western 'friends' by releasing all those IS people in the camps.

I have a feeling that those IS people, along with a whole lot more refugees that the Turks are holding will be headed Europe's way very soon no matter how this latest war pans out.

mapuc · 10-14-19, 11:27 AM

By reading Skybird's comments and the rest in my thread and watching the news I wonder if Turkey have, by starting this invasion of northern Syria, opened the Pandora's Box. Not fully open but a tiny bit.

What can our politicians or Presidents do ?

They can put sanction, embargo and some other diplomatically stuff against Turkey.

No fly-zone would this be an option ? Well knowing that bureaucracy is a high factor in every country, it could take years before this would be a reality.

And if it happened -the UN decided to create a no fly-zone over the Northern part of Syria, how eager would the western politicians be to give the order to attack an another member of NATO ?

Oh forgot something.
Can remember which one of you, my memory says Skybird, who once wrote that in the case a NATO member is attacked this Article 5 is not given...the politicians in the rest of the NATO, would hire/engage lawyers and Jurist to do what is needed to prevent or questioning this article 5.

Markus

10-13-19, 03:27 PM	#1
mapuc Fleet Admiral Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Denmark Posts: 17,877 Downloads: 37 Uploads: 0	The Turkish-Kurdish Dilemma I know we are discussing this in our US-Politics thread I feel after hearing and watching the lastes news on this subject, a separate thread is needed. In the lastest news I have heard the Syrian government have sent troops to engage the Turkish military who have invaded Northern Syria. Immediately some questions popped up in my head. 1. Iran, Iran is what I know Syria's closest allied. When and how will they assist Assad, if he need support ? 2. Russia, Russia is also one of Syria's closest allied and friend. How will they assist Assad, if he need support ? They are also in selling-mode friend with Turkey. Markus

10-13-19, 04:31 PM	#2
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 40,493 Downloads: 9 Uploads: 0	1. Usually the Shia-Sunnio rivalry between Saudia Arabia and Iran gets a lot of attention - that Turkey also has ambitions to be the ruling dominator in the region often is overlooked. However, the Turks are no Arabs, and have a bad reputation amongst Arabs due to their brutal tyranny during the Ottoman empire. Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey all are rivals. Syria wanted to be that as well, so wanted Egypt, but both are busy with their own homework now. Iran already supports Assad, with logistics, training, wepaons, special troops, intel. They probbaly will not themselves confront Turkish troops, since they already are in danger of getting a collision with the US in the Gulf. And why should they want that? For Iran, Syria is its proxy. 2. Russia, they will keep in mind that Turkey is a NATO member, formally at least, which of cours eis just a bad joke by now. Opening fire on Turkish military themselves could be the opening to an article 5 scenario, something that Turkey tries to trigger already now for its invasion of Syria. On the other side Moscow will not forget that the rifts between the US and Turkey are widening, and if they see a realistic chance to benefit from that rift and get away with striking Turkey due to Washington being too pissed by Turkey as if it would care any longer, they maybe will do. Syria for them is not just a proxy, but also a standing leg in the Mediterranean, they must balance between pleasing Assad and not getting drawn into a brawl that they do not want. In other words: things are a bit complicated. Which is an understatement. Note that I do not metion Europe. It plays no role here and is busy with dwarfening itsel further and further. The Turks once again give evidence for why I am so strictly disliking them. Bad fate for the Kurds. But they could have known that Washington would betray them. If I weere Europe, I would deliver them really strong SAM and ATGM weapons to knock turkish military out. And I would close the border to Turkey and send a strionbg fleet into the Adraeatic sea, selaing it off for migrants and Turkish navy as well. NBote that Turkey plays with fire offshore Cyprus as well, they want to claim the control of the gas fields there. As I said, its all a bit complicated. The Kurds do pay the price once again. Its a ####### shame. Libertarian that I am I of course support their natural right to decide for themselves if they want to be governed by foreign dictators or not. The claim by Turkey is invalid and a crime in itself. I am consistent there with my earlier opinions on independence movements in other regions. I agree with the American pullout in principle. I however strictly oppose the conditions and circumstances and timing by which Trump has agreed to do so because Erdoghan wanted it. He took the most brutal way out, and not Americans but Kurds are bleeding for it. That is cyncial, and murderous. Moscow giggles. And delivers Russian SAMs to Turkey and widneing the gap between the US and Turkey by that. Yes, they have no imminent need to react to anything, they collect dividends best by simply doing nothing and leaving their diplomatic game to like it is. Probably nobody in Syria is in such a comfortale position, like Russia. Putin realised the potential of the Syrian option early, long before the EU or Washington did, and set his bet on playing it strong. It pays off. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

10-13-19, 04:45 PM	#3
mapuc Fleet Admiral Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Denmark Posts: 17,877 Downloads: 37 Uploads: 0	You are right it's very complicated As some military expert said on Danish TV earlier Now where Assad have sent his troops to engage the Turkish invasion the situation may turn from bad to worse. Edit Iran-I don't think the government in Teheran will send ordinary troops and equipment. I think they will encourage Iranian who have the skill to fight, to help Assad I don't know how and if the R.G. will act if Assad needs help. End of edit Markus Last edited by mapuc; 10-13-19 at 04:57 PM.

10-13-19, 07:03 PM	#4
Mr Quatro Navy Seal Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 6,772 Downloads: 0 Uploads: 0	@Sky Europe does play an important role they have taken in over a million refugees ... __________________ pla•teau noun a relatively stable level, period, or condition a level of attainment or achievement Lord help me get to the next plateau ..

10-13-19, 07:56 PM	#6
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 40,493 Downloads: 9 Uploads: 0	The Arab League has condemned the Turkish invasion. Interestingly, Quatar, which was supported by Erdoghan in its conflict with Saudi arabia, shared the condemnation. So did the Palestinian Arabs - while in the past Erdoghan had posed as their advocate. Erdoghan can forget to "bribe" Arabs into liking the Turks by using soft power in their interest, so to make the Ottoman terror reign forgotten and a memory of the past - the old Arab ressentiment and even hate for the Turks has been revived by Erdoghan, already since his hidden support for the IS. Many radical Islamists are fighting for the Turks, and reports have emerged that they are not any less barbaric and inhumane as the IS was. There are reports of mass executions of civilian Kurds, murdering of prisoners, and torture and atrocities. Mind you, Erdoghan already assisted the IS and granted them safe havens, medical treatment and supply centres on Turkish soil close behind the border years ago. Kick Turkey out of NATO. What else must Erdoghan do to make Westerners understand what war criminal and terroist they pay court to? I think in no other country on the globe so many journalists and academics have been thrown into rpisonk, like in Erdoghan's AKP-Turkey. Oh, and stop gpoing o9n vacation in Turkey. Nothing threatens his power as much as big parts of business people and entrepreneurs turnign against him. Its wrong to argue that they are innocent and shall be saved. Give them a reason to be existentially angry at Erdoghan. Boycott their businesses. The water and land border to Turkey must also be sealed off and militarily guarded - by forces from all across of Europe. Erdoghan threatens since days to open the floodgate. All credits go to Merkel. Europe's vulnerability to the Turkish blackmailing is her work and her "deal". Another big deal maker. Oh my, there are already three of these... While the political order of the West is splitting up into pieces, these populists seem to enjoy a nesting boom. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

10-14-19, 07:02 AM	#8
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 40,493 Downloads: 9 Uploads: 0	Severla European polticians, Asselblom leading them apparently, wanred that is Syrian troops confront Turkish troops, this would trigger article 5 of the NATO treaty. But that trigger is in case of an attack on a NATO member. Turkey is not th eone being attacked, it is the one attacking others, violati8ng the sovereignt yof another nation unprvoked, and is the one thjat syria rightfullyx reserves the right to defend against. How the hell could Turkey be rewarded by article 5 when they attack others first...? Meanwhile, the German foreign minster showed the skillful art and high potence of German diplomacy in this crisis. He suggested that one should have a dialogue with Ankara. Bravo. Germany does once again what it does best. Please be so kind and excuse me for my nationality - I had no word in choosing the place of my birth. Since decades the Germans have armed Turkey up from toes to teeth, warning them that they should not use the material and weapons in a conflict. But the whole German posture always was just carrots without whips. Anyhow, activating article 5 means little if the Americans do not play in that team, and I doubt they would. And the Europeans would be insane to launch war against Russia in Syria. Washington has mad eit clear with the recent day'S events that they intend to leave problems in the backyard of Europe - to the Eurpopeans if these feel concerned. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

10-14-19, 07:18 AM	#9
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 40,493 Downloads: 9 Uploads: 0	That the Kurds struck a deal with assad most likely also means the end of their current amount of autonomy. Profiteers are Assad, Russia, and Iran. Loosers are the Kurds (but not as much as if they would face Turkey all alone), and indirectly Israeli interests. For Turkey it possibly could, and hopefully will, turn into a boomerang. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

10-14-19, 08:34 AM	#10
ikalugin Ocean Warrior Join Date: Aug 2014 Location: Moscow, Russia Posts: 3,212 Downloads: 8 Uploads: 0	I think we may be seeing some sort of mediation that would allow everyone to save face. __________________ Grumpy as always.

10-14-19, 08:37 AM	#11
Jimbuna Chief of the Boat Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: 250 metres below the surface Posts: 181,150 Downloads: 63 Uploads: 13	The Kurds are on a hiding to nothing whichever way it pans out and as sad as it sounds, only Assad can save them. They could always repay their western 'friends' by releasing all those IS people in the camps. __________________ Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools because they have to say something. Oh my God, not again!! GWX3.0 Download Page - Donation/instant access to GWX (Help SubSim)

10-14-19, 10:25 AM	#12
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 40,493 Downloads: 9 Uploads: 0	"A Mr. Maas from Germany asks if we could maybe brush over the lettering on the tail." (Maas is the apprentice at the top of the German foreign ministry whom hopeless optimists do not mind to refer to as the "foreign minister". He is the one I mentioned before who suggested to react to Ankara's invasion by having a dialogue with Erdoghan). __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

10-14-19, 11:27 AM	#15
mapuc Fleet Admiral Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Denmark Posts: 17,877 Downloads: 37 Uploads: 0	By reading Skybird's comments and the rest in my thread and watching the news I wonder if Turkey have, by starting this invasion of northern Syria, opened the Pandora's Box. Not fully open but a tiny bit. What can our politicians or Presidents do ? They can put sanction, embargo and some other diplomatically stuff against Turkey. No fly-zone would this be an option ? Well knowing that bureaucracy is a high factor in every country, it could take years before this would be a reality. And if it happened -the UN decided to create a no fly-zone over the Northern part of Syria, how eager would the western politicians be to give the order to attack an another member of NATO ? Oh forgot something. Can remember which one of you, my memory says Skybird, who once wrote that in the case a NATO member is attacked this Article 5 is not given...the politicians in the rest of the NATO, would hire/engage lawyers and Jurist to do what is needed to prevent or questioning this article 5. Markus