Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Catfish]

Oh i expect everything is on the table for Putin when things go bad fir him. Using nukes is one thing, but what if he launches them from Belarus?

I do not think anyone will retaliate against Lukashenko and Belarus?

[Jimbuna]

I'm not convinced NATO will respond in kind.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Putin may launch nuclear strike 'to cause misery amid Russian failure to conquer Ukraine'

Vladimir Putin could use nuclear weapons in Ukraine if he feels defeat is imminent, a leading think-tank has warned.

Moscow has prompted fresh concern in recent days over its willingness to deploy the devastating weapons, last week announcing it would move nuclear missiles into Belarus before today commencing exercises with its Yars intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) systems.

In a research paper for the UK's leading foreign policy think tank Chatham House, Russia and Eurasia expert Keir Giles warned there is a 'non-zero' chance Putin could seek to use nukes in Ukraine.

He wrote: 'A nuclear strike could be ordered if there is no longer any possibility of claiming conventional victory and a powerful destructive attack on Ukraine is perceived as the only means of avoiding admission of a clear defeat.

'The moment at which Putin feels his options are exhausted is likely to be the most significantly dangerous decision point,' he concluded.

Giles pointed out that nuclear weapons would have very little military utility on the ground in Ukraine, given that the frontline stretches hundreds of miles and that any strike would not only kill Ukrainians, but also irradiate the land and render it uninhabitable for Russian troops.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...41b91dff&ei=77

The Western public may be stunned by such a stunt, but it is an accelerator to total Russian defeat. NATO must and would not afford to let this go by without a devastating reaction by its own. A no-fly zone would be enforced over Ukraine in short time, and then NATO air superiority would blast the sh1t out of evertyhing Russian on the ground everywhere in Ukraine.

They play the nukie-card as if it were a multiple-use trump card. It isn't. The blade of this threat has become blunt by now. And even if the use nukes, the military signficiance would bve extrenely limited - but the costs would be absolutely devastating. Because if NATO would not do what I desribed above it could say farewell to its role on global history's stage, would rank as a backyard joke only from then on.

Putin will do what he wants to do anyway, no matter what the West does, so I honestly do not care for what he implies, claims, says, threatens with. It does not matter to me anymore. And what he then does in reality is the only thing I care to focus on. Threats do not interest me that much. I make a mark on a tally sheet to keep count, that's all.

[Jimbuna]

Putin stages major nuclear missile exercises involving 3,000 troops in show of strength to the West

Vladimir Putin is staging major nuclear missile exercises involving 3,000 troops in a show of strength to the West.

The Russian despot's troops are staging war games with his 'invincible' Yars intercontinental ballistic missile system in three regions of Russia.

A video shows the Yars missile system - which replaced the Topol - on drills amid his war against Ukraine and high tension with the West.

'In total, more than 3,000 military personnel and about 300 pieces of equipment are involved in the exercises,' Russia's defence ministry said on Wednesday.

The drills involve the Strategic Missile Forces comprehensive control checking of the Omsk missile formation together with a command and staff exercise with the Novosibirsk missile formation equipped with the Yars systems.

During the exercises, the Yars mobile systems will conduct manoeuvres in three Russian regions, the ministry said, without identifying the regions.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...80dda037&ei=98

[Jimbuna]

British Defense Minister Ben Wallace, referring to US estimates, said that the losses of the Russian Federation in the war against Ukraine already amount to more than 220,000 wounded and killed.

"The latest US estimate of Russian casualties in Ukraine puts the number of Russians dead and wounded at more than 220,000," Wallace said during a briefing with his Swedish counterpart, who is visiting London.

According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces, as of March 29, 2023, 172,340 Russian occupiers have been eliminated.

[Jimbuna]

Are the Russian people being fed propaganda to prepare them into thinking nuclear war isn't a bad thing?

I believe there is currently a strong possibility.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-60525350

[Jimbuna]

[mapuc]

We have three stubborn side in this war.

Russia who want these four region in Ukraine to be part of Russia before sign any peace agreement.

Ukraine wants Russia and it's milits to leave Ukraine all the way back to the 1991 border, which Russia approved before signing any peace agreement.

West/NATO/EU/USA-Are not going to let Russia win under any circumstances(this is the understanding I got from all the news and reading your comments)

Putin is on his way to be pressed up in a corner, if he isn't already there.
An animal who is pressed up in a corner is dangerous and may make an assault(not the correct word I know)against those surrounding the animal.

With this in mind-How will Putin react in his response to being pressed up in a corner and can't get out ?

Some pages back I said it was 0.5 Percentage chance for a nuclear war in Ukraine.
In fact I do not not how low or high the risk is for this to happen.

The question is:
Will we(Ukraine and us)still be stubborn the day we found out that Putin has prepared his nukes to be launched ?
Or
Will we open some doors so Putin can come out from the corner ?

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Nothing beats living in a free society eh?

[Skybird]

Tomorrow begins the Russian chairmanship of the UN Security Council . This is not an April Fool's joke. While this means little influence on the Council's decisions, it does allow Russia to set the agenda. A key event of the Russian presidency would be the Council's high-level public debate on 'effective multilateralism by defending the principles of the UN Charter,' Lavrov's spokeswoman threatened earlier.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

We have three stubborn side in this war.

Russia who want these four region in Ukraine to be part of Russia before sign any peace agreement.

No, they want it all, an d no Ukraine remaining. That was always the goal.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Nothing beats living in a free society eh?

She must be very careful. Its not to be ruled out that she suddenly dissapears and then triumphantly gets presented at a Russian court again. She has been chosen to execute an example on her, and the propaganda triump for the regime would be even more complete if this "terrorist" gets shown to have been unable to escape and that Russia'S "justice" cannot be dodged by any fleeing "terrorist offender", no matter where.


When she fled I wonder why her husband did not flee with her? The regime could use him to put her under pressure.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

No, they want it all, an d no Ukraine remaining. That was always the goal.

I thought after they lost the battle of Kyiv, they changed their goal to keep these four enklave/region

Seem to recall some article where it's said that Russia demands these four enklave/region in order to agree on a peace treaty

Markus

[Skybird]

Thats what they can currently do: trying to secure these so far occupied territories mfor them. But what they realyl want is all Ukraine, and the annihilation of anythign close to "Ukrainian identity". They want all Ukraine. Its just that currently they cannot get it.



If the yget bthese five occupied regions, they will spend some years reamring. And then start again. Putin thinks that time is working for him, that Western breath will not last long enough and then Western supplies will shrink and will be stopped. Then Russia can go after the rest of Ukraine. Putin thinks that if only he holds out long enough he still can win.



That he also knows that he is a dead man if he admits defeat, does not increase chances for him changing his mind.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Thats what they can currently do: trying to secure these so far occupied territories mfor them. But what they realyl want is all Ukraine, and the annihilation of anythign close to "Ukrainian identity". They want all Ukraine. Its just that currently they cannot get it.



If the yget bthese five occupied regions, they will spend some years reamring. And then start again. Putin thinks that time is working for him, that Western breath will not last long enough and then Western supplies will shrink and will be stopped. Then Russia can go after the rest of Ukraine. Putin thinks that if only he holds out long enough he still can win.



That he also knows that he is a dead man if he admits defeat, does not increase chances for him changing his mind.

You're right. If he can come after it he would take entire Ukraine.

I forgot in his 3 days special operation in which he had planned on taking Kyiv and take out Zelenskyy and replaced him with a marrionet.

This would not mean the end of the war-Saw a video clip on twitter where some soldier/officer said - The war isn't over even after Ukraine has been occupied. Then we will fight the Russian in guerrilla warfare.

Markus