Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Jimbuna]

Putin hiding his lost billions as Russia burns through currency reserves

Russian President Vladimir Putin is eating through his foreign currency reserves, but is concealing the billions of pounds being spent on the war in Ukraine, Yale University experts tell Express.co.uk. Jeffrey Sonnenfeld and Steven Tian have been closely following the Russian economy since the start of the invasion in February 2022.

They say that Putin has been able to keep Russia's economy going through the use of the country's foreign currency reserves.

However, this has proved expensive for the Kremlin, which is now concealing its expenditure in an effort to mask the economic damage Putin's war is causing.

Mr Tian told Express.co.uk: "It's the billion-dollar question because as soon as we did a study showing how quickly he was depleting his reserves, Putin stopped recording how much reserves he is spending every month.

"In July, we produced a report which said Russian foreign currency reserves had depleted by $75billion (£60billion) since the start of the war.

"Ever since then, we have not seen any more numbers on what's going on. Putin has $600billion (£483billion) in reserves sitting there and still accessible."

Mr Sonnenfeld added: "If Putin was so proud of his economy, why would he conceal how much he has in foreign currency reserves? Why would he hide his imports and exports data if it was so positive?

"He's concealing this information because it is getting worse."

According to reports, Russia had $571billion (£461billion) in US dollars as of December 2022. This is lower than the $630billion (£507billion) Moscow boasted at the start of 2022.

In December, it was also reported that Russia's budget gap jumped to record levels, meaning the country is borrowing more than it ever has before.

As sanctions restrict Russia's economic output, Moscow's fiscal gap stood at £46billion in December.

Russian finance minister Anton Siluanov confirmed this deficit which equates to roughly 2.3 percent of Russian GDP (gross domestic product).

This also means that Russia's spending is more than 30 percent higher than had been forecast at the start of 2022.

Russia had aimed to keep its spending surplus at no higher than one percent.

Mr Sonnenfeld continued: "You look at the deficit, other nations around the world do run deficits, but they get somebody to fund it. Nobody is buying Russian debt.

"Putin can't fund this debt, and that's more troubling than the actual debt."

Mr Tian added: "Putin's reserves can't last forever, and this is putting a squeeze on him in a way nothing in the last 20 years ever has."

While Russia has tried to paper over its economic cracks, the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned this week that the country faces huge difficulties going forward.

Harvard professor Kenneth Rogoff said Russia could end up like a "giant Iran".

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, he said: "If Russia escalates, what are we doing? We need to be ready. They need to know that is coming."

He added that Russia will face "incredible poverty" and that Europe needs "to concentrate on our defence capabilities" in case Putin escalates.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/othe...53adac4984e8bd

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Huge breakthrough for Zelensky as Germany gives green light to Leopard tanks

See my post before. No clear green light.

[Jimbuna]

The story is less than thirty minutes old

[Jimbuna]

Germany will fall into certain international isolation if it does not change its position regarding Leopard for Ukraine, - Polish MFA

Germany will find itself in a certain international isolation if it does not change its position on Leopard 2 tanks for Ukraine.

As reported by Censor.NET with reference to LIGA.net, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland Arkadiusz Mularchyk stated this.

According to him, the statement of the head of the German Foreign Ministry, Annalena Berbock, that Germany would not mind if Poland hands over German Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine is a novelty, as such a position has not yet been voiced in Berlin.

"Germany, not agreeing to send tanks, falls into a certain international isolation and their position will be very weak if they continue to take this position," said the deputy head of the Polish Foreign Ministry.

He noted that Germany's position contradicts the principles of international law, territorial integrity, the sovereignty of countries, the rule of law, and human rights. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3395050

Heads of foreign affairs of EU countries will discuss today transfer of tanks to Ukraine, - Borrell

Today, the ministers of foreign affairs of the EU countries will discuss the military support of Ukraine. In particular, the transfer of tanks is on the agenda.

This was stated by the head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, before the ministerial meeting, Censor.NET informs with reference to RBC-Ukraine.

He noted that today's meeting of the European Council on Foreign Affairs will be devoted to military aid for Ukraine.

"We will start with the Ukrainian war. We will start with how to continue military support for Ukraine," Borrell said.

The diplomat added that the ministers will discuss the new tranche of military aid, as well as the level of support, taking into account the commitments that the EU countries undertook during the meeting in Ramstein. According to Borrell, Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba will take part in the discussion.

The head of the European diplomacy believes that the last meeting in the Rammstein format was productive. He emphasized that not only the transfer of tanks was discussed at it, but this issue will be on the agenda of the meeting of the heads of foreign affairs today.

Borrell hopes that a political decision regarding the tanks will be made, and a formal one will be agreed upon later. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3395052

"There are currently no conditions for negotiations with Ukraine, neither de facto nor de jure", - Peskov

Putin’s spokesman Dmytro Peskov denied the possibility of negotiations and stated that there are currently no conditions for this.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to the propaganda publication TASS.

"There are currently no conditions for negotiations with Ukraine, either de facto or de jure," said the Russian dictator's spokesman.

According to Peskov, all countries that are "pumping up Kyiv with weapons" are responsible for this.

Putin's spokesman also said that the people of Ukraine "will pay for the pseudo-support of the West in the form of arms supplies." Source: https://censor.net/en/n3395074

[Jimbuna]

Next few weeks will determine our future, we need to provide support to Ukraine, we cannot let it down, - Michel

The next two to three weeks will be decisive for Ukraine and the world in general.

This was stated by the chairman of the European Council, Charles Michel, Censor.NET reports with reference to NV.

"What happens in 2023, and much else depends on the next few weeks, is what will determine our future. We must be with Ukraine and provide them with all the support they need. We cannot let them down," he stressed.

According to Michel, Ukraine should receive tanks from the West and he supports their immediate transfer.

Michel added that there is a "hot debate" on this issue, including regarding their supply by Germany.

The head of the European Council emphasized that for Europe, the defeat of Ukraine in the war could become "an extremely dangerous precedent for the future."

"There cannot be a free and safe Europe without a free and safe Ukraine," the head of the European Council added. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3395081

President of European Council, Michel, called for speeding up negotiations on use of confiscated assets of Russian Federation for restoration of Ukraine


The President of the European Council, Charles Michel, called on the capitals of the EU countries to speed up negotiations on the use of confiscated assets of the Russian central bank in the amount of $300 billion for the restoration of Ukraine.

As reported by Censor.NET with reference to European Pravda, he said this in an interview with the Financial Times.

Michel said he wanted to explore the idea of actively managing the Russian central bank's frozen assets to generate profits that could then be channeled into rebuilding the country.

"It's a matter of justice and fairness. It has to be done according to legal principles - that's very clear," he said.

Michel noted that he expects a "certain impetus" from the EU leaders in the discussions. He added that, despite the legal obstacles to seizing assets, there is "a serious political interest in making progress on this issue and getting it done."

At the beginning of the war, the EU and its allies froze hundreds of billions of dollars in foreign currency reserves held in foreign accounts of the Russian central bank. EU officials later put forward the idea of confiscating these assets for use in rebuilding Ukraine's destroyed infrastructure.

Last September, Ukraine, Brussels, and the World Bank estimated the cost of reconstruction and recovery in Ukraine at just under 350 billion euros. Since then, the likely cost has only increased as weekly Russian missile and drone attacks damage critical civilian infrastructure such as power plants and residential buildings. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3395096

Western aid is very important to Ukraine now, as latest actions of Russian Federation indicate preparation of major offensive, - Minister of Defense of Estonia Pevkur

According to Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur, Western aid to Ukraine is extremely important now because Russia’s latest moves point to its preparations for a major offensive in the coming months.

As reported by Censor.NET with reference to European Pravda, this was reported by ERR.

"Why are the expectations [of providing tanks to Ukraine] so high - everyone understands that the next few months will be very critical.
The situation in Ukraine is difficult, Russia is concentrating new forces, and a lot of manpower has been brought in. And if you think about the appointment of [Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery] Gerasimov (commander-in-chief of Russian forces in Ukraine. - Ed.) instead of [General Serhiy] Surovikin, then this is explained not by the fact that Surovikin did not cope, but by the fact that Gerasimov can command all kinds of troops. These steps indicate that Russia is preparing for a major offensive," Pevkur said.

According to him, Russia is resorting to attrition tactics to reduce the capabilities of Ukrainian air defense.

Commenting on the supply of main battle tanks to Ukraine, which the Western allies failed to agree on at the negotiations at the Ramstein base in Germany, Pevkur noted that Germany may continue to allow the supply of its Leopard tanks. "The new [German] defense minister had little to say because they don't have an agreement in the coalition. They will look for it," Pevkur said.

According to Pevkur, the option in which other allies, for example, Poland, will supply German tanks to Ukraine without the consent of Berlin, is not a good decision.

"Changes will take place if tanks, combat vehicles, equipment provided by allies act as a single fist. I don't think that the unilateral provision of tanks will change anything for the better in the relations between the allies. Germany can shut down more, and we don't need that," said the Estonian Defense Minister.

Pevkur added that tanks are a very important combat component for Ukraine, and all other aid will not be able to compensate for their lack. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3395087

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

The story is less than thirty minutes old

Baerbock said Sunday evening Germany would not stand in Poland's way, if the Poles want to sent Leopards.


Monday morning in Brussel, she already evaded again.



Somebody must have given her a nightly telephone call, I guess.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Baerbock said Sunday evening Germany would not stand in Poland's way, if the Poles want to sent Leopards.


Monday morning in Brussel, she already evaded again.



Somebody must have given her a nightly telephone call, I guess.

I suspect the Poles might eventually send them fourteen or so even without permission.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

I suspect the Poles might eventually send them fourteen or so even without permission.

Yes, they said so, and I hope so, and I suspect they will do so since some time. That would be two companies of MBTs then.

Still not enough to form a mechanized brigade together with those Bradleys and Marders that could endure wear and tear and losses. I think they would need TWO such brigades minimum - with ongoing supply and logistics and loss compensations. Thats hefty, but could be done, if there is the will.

[Jimbuna]

In matters of tanks, last half step remains to be taken, we are at final stage, - Kuleba

Minister of Foreign Affairs Dmytro Kuleba said that "the last half step" remains to be taken in the matter of Ukraine receiving tanks.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to Interfax-Ukraine.

"In the matter of tanks, the last half step remains to be taken. We have already received the British Challenger, which they said was impossible. We are already receiving the French light tanks for the time being. We hear that France is considering the provision of Leclerc tanks. I have no doubt that the Leopard will also come to us will arrive, we are at the final stage," Kuleba said.

The minister noted that providing Ukraine with any type of weapons was problematic for Germany.

"Such a country has specifics, it must be taken into account. But, in the end, we always got the necessary result, and we will get it this time as well," the head of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry expressed confidence. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3395203

Topic of providing Ukraine with planes has moved from standstill, - Kuleba

The topic of providing aircraft has moved from a standstill, Ukraine’s task this year is to obtain all types of weapons necessary for victory.

This was stated by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Dmytro Kuleba, Censor.NET reports with reference to Interfax-Ukraine.

"It has moved. And when it (the topic of planes - IF-U) moves at the speed of, I hope, the same plane, then we will quickly come to the result," Kuleba said on the air of the telethon.

As the minister said, at the Ramstein-9 announced in February, decisions will be made about new supplies of various types of weapons, because "the war is big and large amounts of weapons are needed."

Kuleba emphasized that three issues remained to be resolved - tanks, long-range missiles, and aircraft. According to the minister, the issue of tanks is almost resolved. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3395205

Polish government is outraged by statements of former head of Ministry of Foreign Affairs Sikorski about alleged "division of Ukraine"

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki called on the opposition to dissociate itself from the words of former Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski about the alleged thoughts of the Polish authorities about the "partition of Ukraine" in the first days of the Russian invasion.

This is reported by PAP, Censor.NET reports with reference to "Euro Integration".

Sikorsky spoke on Radio Zet on Monday morning. Among other things, the topic of the war in Ukraine was raised. In particular, he was asked whether he believed that the "Law and Justice" the government had been thinking about dividing the territory of Ukraine for some time.

"I think that in the first ten days of the war, there was a moment of doubt when we all did not see how everything would turn out, that Ukraine might fall. If it were not for the heroism of Zelensky and the help of the West, different things could have happened," said Sikorski.

The head of the Polish government reacted to this statement, noting that such words are no different from Russian propaganda.

"The former Minister of Foreign Affairs should weigh his words. I expect him to renounce these shameful statements. I call on the opposition to distance itself from Radoslav Sikorski's statement," Morawiecki said.

Polish government spokesman Piotr Mueller also criticized Sikorski: "Don't measure people by your standards. It was your policy aimed at restarting relations with the Russian Federation. It was your government that met with Putin in Moscow."

It should be noted that the topic of Poland's alleged territorial claims against Ukraine is regularly raised by Russian propaganda.

It will be recalled that in November, the ruling party of Poland "Law and Justice" presented a draft law on the creation of a special commission that would investigate Russia's influence on Poland's internal politics in 2007-2022.

Among the decisions that the commission will be able to make, the annulment of administrative decisions issued as a result of Russian influence is foreseen; prohibition of performing functions related to the disposal of state funds for a period of up to 10 years; annulment and ban on obtaining a "good faith check" for 10 years.

The commission is expected to be established in early 2023. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3395194

[Jimbuna]

Germany 'terrified of upsetting Putin' as British Army Colonel lashes out in tanks row

Germany has come under furious attack after it was accused of being "terrified of upsetting Vladimir Putin" in the row over sending game-changing Leopard II tanks to Ukraine to use in the war against Russia. There are around 2,000 Leopard II tanks in armies across a dozen NATO armies, meaning they are ready to be sent to and used in Ukraine as soon as possible. But a furious row erupted after Germany - led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz - dragged its feet and refused to give the go-ahead for fellow allies to send the German-made vehicles to Kyiv.

Last week, Poland joined several NATO allies in in committing to donate a number of their own Leopard II tanks to Ukraine, with Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki suggesting the country could bypass Germany and send them anyway.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has now received a huge boost after Germany said it would "not stand in the way" of Poland sending tanks.

But Germany has been savaged for dragging its feet over the matter with Colonel Richard Kemp, a retired British Army officer who served for nearly 30 years, telling Express.co.uk: "Germany's reaction to helping supply Ukraine with tanks, weapons and other heavy artillery has been very disappointing.

"They really ought to send Leopard II tanks to Ukraine but even if it doesn't it should not have allowed countries like Poland and Finland who bought those tanks from Germany and want to send them.

"This comes down to what we have seen from Germany all the way through this conflict - we have seen fear of antagonising Russia.

"It's inbuilt in their DNA in a way because they have had such a close relationship with Russia for many years that they are terrified of upsetting Putin even more than he already is."

Colonel Kemp said Leopard II tanks "are the best in terms of how easy it would be for Ukrainian forces to learn to operate them" and that between 200 and 300 could be deployed "very quickly".

He went as far as to say: "That makes them very valuable and potentially a battle winner for Ukraine."

The retired British Army officer continued: "Ukraine getting these tanks could make the difference in the forthcoming offences, and could make the difference between victory and defeat for them.

"Russia has a lot of tanks and Ukraine has some but has already seen many of them destroyed. These Leopard II tanks are far more capable that a lot of the tanks Russia has got

"Those tanks are most useful for offensive purposes but they are also extremely valuable for defensive purposes, sop they could make a big difference in whether Russia's offensive is successful."

Last week, an EU crisis threatened top erupt after Poland suggested it has lost patience with Germany's refusals to sanction the delivery of Leopard II tanks to Ukraine - and would send them anyway.

German Chancellor Mr Scholz had come under increasing pressure to authorise the tanks prior to a meeting on Friday at the US military base of Ramstein, where military support to Ukraine was discussed by 50 countries, including all 30 NATO members.

But over the weekend, when asked what would happen if Warsaw sent its Leopard 2 tanks without German approval, Foreign Secretary told French TV station LCI: "For the moment the question has not been asked, but if we were asked we would not stand in the way."

Last week, NATO member Britain said it would send a squadron of Challenger 2 tanks, AS90 guns, hundreds more armoured and protected vehicles, dozens more uncrewed aerial systems, another 100,000 artillery rounds, hundreds more sophisticated missiles.

Denmark has committed to donating 19 French-made Caesar howitzers to Ukraine and Sweden promised to send its Archer artillery system.

Ukrainian President Mr Zelensky has continued to plead with Western allies to ramp up its supply of heavy-duty artillery to the country as the war with Russia reaches a critical stage.

He warned during a speech at the annual World Economic Forum gathering in Davos via video-link last week: "There are times where we shouldn't hesitate.

"When someone says 'I will give tanks if someone else will also share tanks'... I don't think this is the right strategy to go with."

Ukrainian Presidential aide Mykhaylo Podolyak also warned it was "time to stop trembling at Putin and take the final step."

He wrote on Twitter: "True leadership is about leading by example, not about looking up to others.

"There are no taboos. From Washington to London, from Paris to Warsaw, one thing is said: Ukraine needs tanks; tanks - the key to end war properly. Time to stop trembling at Putin and take the final step.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...02a48f18fc268b

[mapuc]

The Russian is scared by the talks about sending heavy MBT to Ukraine.
As an Animal who is being scared or pushed up in a corner, show it's teeth to warn.

- A close ally of President Vladimir Putin said on Sunday that deliveries of offensive weapons to Kyiv that threaten Russia's territories will lead to a global catastrophe and make arguments against using weapons of mass destruction untenable.

https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-...he-2023-01-22/

Markus

[Skybird]

Erdogan tells Sweden not to expect Nato bid support.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64380066


And the Süddeutsche Zeitung adds:
--------------------------------------------
On top of all this, there is now an Erdoğan cartoon contest: the socialist magazine Flamman has called for it as a symbolic defense of freedom of expression and a protest against the Swedish government, which it believes is betraying democratic values in its attempt to wrest approval of Sweden's NATO membership from the Turkish government. According to its own information, the editorial team received 400 entries. The winning picture shows an old man holding a small human in both hands and about to bite his head off with vampire-like fangs. Apparently, he has already mutilated his feet. The victim of the man-eater can be assumed to be a Kurdish resistance fighter, judging by his clothing.

The award-winning cartoonist, a graduate of the Stockholm Academy of Art, alludes to Goya's somber painting "Saturn Devours His Children," which Leonidas Aretakis, the Flamman editor, interprets in an interview with the SZ as an "artistic response to the horrors of war and the Inquisition." "Only this time it's Erdogan eating his own children." Five Swedish newspapers, including Expressen, as well as Finland's Ny Tid, have declared in a journalistic show of solidarity that they will also publish the cartoon.
-------------------------------


Imagine a headline like

"NATO general secretary Stoltenberg tells Turkey not to expect further invitations, cooperations, manouvers, supply deliveries and intel sharings. "