Huge pro-EU rally grips Ukraine

[Oberon]

Well, they've got a semi-truce until 20:00 local time today (18:00GMT), whilst negotiations take place between the opposition and the leaders. It looks like they were able to put out a lot of the tyre fires that were burning last night when I went to bed, but there's still a lot of people hanging around.

Skybird makes a very good point though in the fact that the country is split between those in the city and those in the countryside (not to mention the traditional east/west split) and there has been a disproportionate media focus on the urban areas to the neglect of the countryside, but well, you know how the media is, they go where it's on fire.
The key part of any successful uprising or struggle though is what side the military falls on, and given how this is localised to Kiev, I imagine that the military is going to be hedging its bets in favour of the current government, as such, aside from possible localised defections, the army and police will remain loyal to Yanukovich, and that means that this uprising will fail. The main question being, can Klitschko bluff some measure of compromise before Yanukovichs patience runs out, and can Yanukovich dismantle the protests without making himself a pariah state in the eyes of the west (although given that he's a pro-Russian man, that's probably not that high on his agenda, but still, it helps to keep both sides happy).

I predict a compromise may be reached, early elections perhaps, but Yanukovich will not stand down, he will run again, and if he has the support in the rest of the country that we think he has, he will win again, and then we'll be back at square one and we'll have to see where that leads.

If Betonov reads this thread, how are things in the Ukraine being watched by the anti-government sentiment in Slovenia? If this uprising does, by some miracle, succeed in its goal, could you see it inspiring further uprisings in Slovenia?

[Skybird]

If the Ukrainian military were in danger of making a stand against the pro-Russian government, I assume Russia will lure them back into line by promising generous "military aid", fiscal benefits for the decisive high officers, and offers for new modern equipment. As somebody once said: "The military is a club of big boys who share a fetish for toys".

[Jimbuna]

Interesting to see Vitaly Klitschko is the opposition leader....you'd think he'd had enough of fighting by now.

Yanukovich took the unusual move on Sunday night of meeting Vitaly Klitschko, the boxer-turned-politician who has emerged as the leader of the opposition. The president later promised to set up talks with the opposition to settle the crisis.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/0...A0K0Z320140121

[Dread Knot]

There is something oddly amusing about seeing the return of the Roman legionary testudo after a thousand years, even if the Kiev police don't quite have the ancient tactic down yet.

Looks like Rome meets Nome.

[Oberon]

Yeah, although the Romans never had to deal with Molotov cocktails:



The Prime Minister, Azarov, has stated that his government will step down if parliament votes for it, but Azarovs coalition holds a slim majority in parliament, so there's more than a reasonable chance that they'd vote against it, something that the protesters likely know.
The truce is due to end any minute now, and Klitschko has stated that he'll make a speech to the protesters giving details of how todays negotiations have gone. Apparently the city of Rovno has had a regional administration building taken over by protesters, not much more detail from there though.

Time will tell if tonight will be busy or quiet for the law officers of Kiev.


EDIT: Turns out the negotiations were postponed during the day and they're only taking place now. No doubt so that any bad news that leaks out will happen much later in the night so that the law enforcement officers have had a chance to dig in and be ready for it during todays 'truce'.

[Jimbuna]

My take on it is that the government are worried of possible Russian repercussions should they align themselves closer to Europe and are simply playing out time.

A few deaths and then the clampdown with a freebie excuse to tell the world they had no other choice in view of the violence and devastation being caused as a result of the troubles..

[Oberon]

The Orthodox priests are really earning their bread in this chaos:

[Jimbuna]

Bullet proof caseks

[Oberon]

First negotiations have ended:

Yatsenyuk says they "had positive talks with the President". Tyagnibok "results of the talks must be consulted with Euromaidan"

Klitschko: "we have agreement that all police violence towards people stops today, all detained will be released" People are booing

Klitschko: "the whole process is prolonging, this is only the 1st round of negotiations. We wont stop until president steps down"

The crowd is chanting “Liars!” as opposition leaders speak to them after hours of talks with the government. They also urged Udar Party leader Vitaly Klitscho to take to the barricades.

This could get ugly...

Opposition leader Oleg Tyagnibok announced that "we pronounce ceasefire until morning," RT's Alexey Yaroshevsky reports from Kiev.

So, it might be a quiet night, it depends on whether the protesters are satisfied with the actions taken by their figureheads or whether they want to just smash and burn, we all know there's usually a group that's the smash and burn type, we'll see what they do.

[Oberon]

After a peaceful couple of nights, things are starting to break down again. More cities have seen unrest in the western side of the country, the more EU leaning side as Skybird has pointed out, whereas the coal mining region of Donbass in the east has started rallying in support of Yanukovich. So the east/west split is being shown in all its glory.
The interior minister Zakharchenko has stated that he believes that negotiations are 'futile' and that the opposition is unable to control its more radical elements (he probably has a point there, to be fair).

The map below shows cities where anti-government protests have taken place:



To quote the BBC (where the image is from):

In the western city of Ivano-Frankivsk, some 1,500 protesters occupied the regional administration and barricaded themselves in the building. They are now demanding that the local governor should resign immediately.
In Chernivsti, also in the west, crowds stormed the governor's office as police tried to protect the building. People shouted "Shame on you!" and "Resign!"
In Lutsk, in the north-west, a big demonstration was being held outside the local administration.
Regional offices were being blockaded in the western city of Uzhgorod and unrest was reported in the eastern city of Sumy.
In Lviv, protesters have built barricades around the governor's office that they seized on Thursday. There were also reports that some members of the special police, Berkut, were resigning.

As always, RT is doing live updates in English at:
http://rt.com/news/kiev-protest-clashes-updates-862/

And the live view is still running at:
http://rt.com/on-air/ukraine-kiev-police-protesters/

[Skybird]

I lost track of what the status is regarding the Russian navy basis and the Blacksea fleet in Sewastopol? Is it a shared command between Ukraine and Russia, or how did the row end that they had a couple of years ago. Access there is something that Russia must consider as a vital interest, more so than a navy base in Syria. I doubt they will sit idly by if political change in Ukraine threatens that by the country turning to the EU. In that case I not only think it is possible but likely that the Russian will react possibly even militarily with a joined intervention. EU megalomania can really cause very nasty results here. This is not Poland.

[Jimbuna]

Ultimately...Georgia revisited.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Skybird

I lost track of what the status is regarding the Russian navy basis and the Blacksea fleet in Sewastopol? Is it a shared command between Ukraine and Russia, or how did the row end that they had a couple of years ago. Access there is something that Russia must consider as a vital interest, more so than a navy base in Syria. I doubt they will sit idly by if political change in Ukraine threatens that by the country turning to the EU. In that case I not only think it is possible but likely that the Russian will react possibly even militarily with a joined intervention. EU megalomania can really cause very nasty results here. This is not Poland.

I believe that after Russia threatened to turn the gas off they signed a treaty extending Russias ownership of the naval base until 2042, it was so popular in the Ukraine that a fight broke out in their parliament.
I have a niggling suspicion in the back of my mind that should it all go south in the Ukraine, Russia will very likely intervene.
The US and EU are already mumbling about sanctions, Lavrov (Russias foreign minister) has already told Kerry to butt out, but I can't see that happening, and if Russia does go in, I could see it spiralling out of control into a small civil war in the Ukraine which would not be a pretty sight.
Either which way, I don't see the EU or US being drawn into any kind of military operation, like you say this is not Poland, but it's certainly going to spark off the 'Russian/Soviet bogeyman' hype again, like we had in Georgia.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Ultimately...Georgia revisited.

No. Very different.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Oberon

but it's certainly going to spark off the 'Russian/Soviet bogeyman' hype again, like we had in Georgia.

And that's what it was: a bogeyman hype because the West fell for the real provocateur in Georgia who lied to and betrayed the West in order to make NATO starting a war on Georgia's behalf. As I said to Jim already: Georgia and Ukraine do not compare at all. It starts already with that the Georgian bad ape was hostile to Russia, while the Ukrainian one is pro Russia. The majority of Georgians seem to have been against Russia, but whether there is a true numerical majority in the Ukraine against Russia, imo is at least in doubt.

As far as Kerry and Obama are concerned, if they do not want to make jokes of themselves once again, after the ME debacles of recent years and the show of weakness and hesitation and wishy-washy manouvering, they better watch their mouths a little bit. The US has more serious and vital problems on its mind, one would assume. Same is to be said about the EU. This is the Ukrainian people needing to find their way and make their choices. For the EU, the Ukraine has merely narcissistic value. Strategically we would be better off to stay out of it and have it not joining the EU. We have troubles enough already, internally, fiscally, demographically, economically. The EU is way too big already, hopelessly overstretched and distanced from reality. To have a big cause for future anger and confrontation with Russia over the Ukraine is not in Europe's interest. For Russia, the vital stakes are much higher in this, than for the EU. And last but not least: gas. Mind you: the Ukraine does not produce the gas that goes to Europe via its pipes: it just is a transfer country, but the gas comes from Russia. And the Ukrainian pipes already are bypassed to some degree.

The worst the West could do is to react by some ancient cold war reflexes. That Putin maybe will do that, must not serve as our motivation to copy it. Sober cost-effect calculation is on order. The result, as I see it, is that we have little stakes in this that are not high enough to justify our costs if we get engaged too far.