Wuhan virus 2020 - Page 155

Jimbuna · 04-03-20, 10:30 AM

Skybird · 04-03-20, 10:31 AM

It seems that Germany, to use a German proverb, "scratches the curve" - it may get away with a blue eye. They announced today that the exponential growth of new infections has been stopped after 12 days of shut-down. They expect numbers of new infections even dropping in the next days. The speed by which the pandemic spreads, has been halved, this week the average growth in new infections per day was 9%, in the week before it was 17%. R0 now is at 1, and they hope that it posssibly will drop below 1 in coming days, which means the pandemic would shrink.

They call this the best possible of five to be expected scenarios. But it does not mean that one can quckly ease the pressure, because as long as there is no vaccine, the pandmeic can grow and worsen again and break out with all ferocity, if one does not keep restrictive control of iot.

Germany, was the first nation in Europe that started to aggressively test. Although time was wasted that it had an advanatge in due to many beds and ICUs, it seems that it nevertheless will be suffiocient. A scenario like in italy is ruled out by all 200 virologists that they have quizzed about that possibility. - In the end, the success is what counts, and it seems Germany is becoming a gold standard in how top get a grab of this beast. This buys us what is the most precious currently: time.

Mr Quatro · 04-03-20, 10:45 AM

Would Steed like this in the UK?

Glad I don't live in the Philippine's

'Shoot them dead' - Philippine leader says won't tolerate lockdown violators

https://www.yahoo.com/news/shoot-the...034000647.html

Quote:

MANILA (Reuters) - Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has warned violators of coronavirus lockdown measures they could be shot for causing trouble and said abuse of medical workers was a serious crime that would not be tolerated.

In a televised address, Duterte said it was vital everyone cooperates and follows home quarantine measures, as authorities try to slow the contagion and spare the country's fragile health system from being overwhelmed.

Mr Quatro · 04-03-20, 10:52 AM

The 405 Freeway in LA at rush hour. You will never see it like this again.

em2nought · 04-03-20, 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skybird

And another source.

Remember what I said on vacuum cleaner bags?

Much better than trying to make one out of a whole house filter which I tinkered with, and did the bleeding to prove it. LOL

ikalugin · 04-03-20, 11:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skybird

The Antonov that brought Russian equipment and ventilators to the US, hardly was an act of Russian selflessness, but the items represent an order placed by the US for which the US pays good money.

Oh, and the ventilators stem from a Russian company that is under sanctions since several years. The Russians make the Americans pay for undermining the sanctions the Americans have imposed themselves on that Russian company.

Well they payed half the money - half was payed by the state owned Russian direct investment fund.

Meanwhile FFFP-2 valveless filtering half mask packs (5 half masks) are being sold at a price of new, full face gas mask (with filter etc). Online ofc so the possibility of fraud is very much there.

August · 04-03-20, 12:08 PM

Back on the 20th of March we had about 300 deaths in this country attributed to Covid. We have also been told that the death rate would double every 2.5 days. Well I am no math expert so maybe my numbers are off but i'm thinking that we should be at somewhere about 11-12k dead yet we're still about half that at 6k, well short of the seasons (preliminary) flu death toll of 24,000 to 63,000 BTW.

Date Projected (@2.5) - Actual

23 March - 750 - 233
26 March - 1875 - 1500
29 March - 4687 - 2400
01 April - 11,717 - 4600
03 April - 29,294 - 6000
05 April - 73,234
08 April - 183,086

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/...ntl/index.html

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...n-be-deceiving

Catfish · 04-03-20, 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skybird

The Antonov that brought Russian equipment and ventilators to the US, hardly was an act of Russian selflessness, but the items represent an order placed by the US for which the US pays good money.

Oh, and the ventilators stem from a Russian company that is under sanctions since several years. The Russians make the Americans pay for undermining the sanctions the Americans have imposed themselves on that Russian company.

Just heard that, oh the irony

Jimbuna · 04-03-20, 12:34 PM

UK government says stay at home when weather turns warm this weekend.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock calls for medical trial volunteers.

US Navy ship in New York with 1,000 bed capacity has only 20 patients.

New York sees highest increase in deaths in a single day.

Prince Charles opens a rapidly built field hospital in London.

White House is expected to advise Americans to wear masks.

The Queen will address the nation in a broadcast on Sunday night.

Nearly 53,000 people have died and more than 210,000 have recovered.

Rockstar · 04-03-20, 12:35 PM

Those crazy numbers probably came from using a simple exponential growth formula. It was touted early on by math wizards and fear mongers to get YouTube subscribers. I believe I touched on that very thing early on saying that formula cannot used to project infectious disease growth rates. I forgot what the formula used is called but its a heck of lot more complicated.

ikalugin · 04-03-20, 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rockstar

Those crazy numbers probably came from using a simple exponential growth formula. It was touted early on by math wizards and fear mongers to get YouTube subscribers. I believe I touched on that very thing early on saying that formula cannot used to project infectious disease growth rates. I forgot what the formula used is called but its a heck of lot more complicated.

The S-curve?

Catfish · 04-03-20, 12:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by mapuc

Corona and EU.

The last week or so, I have now and then heard and read article in which Italy and Spain is angry on EU. Mostly because of the EU's bureaucracy.
Here in Denmark there are companies who can easily change from producing snaps to medical alcohol...EU's bureaucracy is preventing them from doing this. The same goes in Sweden and other European countries-EU is working against their elected politicians.

Nevertheless, EU have said they will help Italy and Spain.

Then some minutes ago a friend posted this picture on his wall and yes it's EU in a nutshell

Markus

The EU already helps Italy and Spain, the problems at the moment are that the infrastructure has been maimed by bad judging and nationalistic posing to appear as a strong government. Different in Italy, here no trucks and trains are allowed to e.g. leave Italy because their government prohibited it. Now thousands of trucks have to reach Italy from abroad for delivering all kinds of goods and medicaments, they know of the danger but they do it.
So apart from a lot of problems it seems that despite the usual hate on Facebook et al, the solidarity in the EU is quite exceptional, it just does not make the headlines like the incompetent "leader" idiot posers.

But your picture also depicts the EU's stance on drowning refugees very well, doesn't it? The EU's court has just ruled that three of the EU's nations which did not help were acting against EU law. The usual suspects are of course Poland with Kaczinsky, Hungary with Orban and the Czech republic.

Skidman wrote

Quote:

The truth is: The EU is falling apart. Did you notice Victor Orban (I'd like to see him hanged, drawn, and quartered) had his "Ermächtigungsgesetz" (look it up) rubber-stamped this week?

I would also see Orban hanged, like a lot of other so-called "leaders" of this ridiculous planet. Kaczinsky is an idiot, but as everywhere those right wing idiots are the new hype. Jinping, Putin, Bolsonaro, Maduro, and now also in the "enlightened west"? Steve Bannon and Breitbart along with Fox media on european tour to support the right, add them to the list.

The EU falling apart? It just shows a lot of solidarity - not Poland, Hungary and the Czech republic of course. But you know what?
I have absolutely no problem with those countries and especially there "leaders" being thrown out of the EU ASAP, instead of letting them leave. Get the hell out, and good riddance.

Rockstar · 04-03-20, 12:54 PM

Exponential growth accounts for unconstrained growth (simplified math). Its the Verhulst Model I think that's used to determine more realistic growth projections. (for me mind boggling math).

August · 04-03-20, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

US Navy ship in New York with 1,000 bed capacity has only 20 patients

It's twin is in LA and only has 15 patients.

Catfish · 04-03-20, 01:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Prince Charles has officially opened London's new NHS Nightingale Hospital via video link. [...].

So the house of Saxo-Coburg Gotha is still actually good for something?
What has this man to do with this hospital, did he actually DO something apart from posing and taking the gratitude for something others organised and did?

Yes i know he is basically a good man, but there are things that are absolutely unnecessary

04-03-20, 10:30 AM	#2311
Jimbuna Chief of the Boat Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: 250 metres below the surface Posts: 181,344 Downloads: 63 Uploads: 13	__________________ Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools because they have to say something. Oh my God, not again!! GWX3.0 Download Page - Donation/instant access to GWX (Help SubSim)

04-03-20, 10:31 AM	#2312
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 40,566 Downloads: 9 Uploads: 0	It seems that Germany, to use a German proverb, "scratches the curve" - it may get away with a blue eye. They announced today that the exponential growth of new infections has been stopped after 12 days of shut-down. They expect numbers of new infections even dropping in the next days. The speed by which the pandemic spreads, has been halved, this week the average growth in new infections per day was 9%, in the week before it was 17%. R0 now is at 1, and they hope that it posssibly will drop below 1 in coming days, which means the pandemic would shrink. They call this the best possible of five to be expected scenarios. But it does not mean that one can quckly ease the pressure, because as long as there is no vaccine, the pandmeic can grow and worsen again and break out with all ferocity, if one does not keep restrictive control of iot. Germany, was the first nation in Europe that started to aggressively test. Although time was wasted that it had an advanatge in due to many beds and ICUs, it seems that it nevertheless will be suffiocient. A scenario like in italy is ruled out by all 200 virologists that they have quizzed about that possibility. - In the end, the success is what counts, and it seems Germany is becoming a gold standard in how top get a grab of this beast. This buys us what is the most precious currently: time. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

04-03-20, 10:52 AM	#2314
Mr Quatro Navy Seal Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 6,772 Downloads: 0 Uploads: 0	The 405 Freeway in LA at rush hour. You will never see it like this again. __________________ pla•teau noun a relatively stable level, period, or condition a level of attainment or achievement Lord help me get to the next plateau ..

04-03-20, 12:34 PM	#2319
Jimbuna Chief of the Boat Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: 250 metres below the surface Posts: 181,344 Downloads: 63 Uploads: 13	UK government says stay at home when weather turns warm this weekend. Health Secretary Matt Hancock calls for medical trial volunteers. US Navy ship in New York with 1,000 bed capacity has only 20 patients. New York sees highest increase in deaths in a single day. Prince Charles opens a rapidly built field hospital in London. White House is expected to advise Americans to wear masks. The Queen will address the nation in a broadcast on Sunday night. Nearly 53,000 people have died and more than 210,000 have recovered. __________________ Wise men speak because they have something to say; Fools because they have to say something. Oh my God, not again!! GWX3.0 Download Page - Donation/instant access to GWX (Help SubSim)

04-03-20, 12:35 PM	#2320
Rockstar Rear Admiral Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Zendia Bar & Grill Posts: 11,886 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	Those crazy numbers probably came from using a simple exponential growth formula. It was touted early on by math wizards and fear mongers to get YouTube subscribers. I believe I touched on that very thing early on saying that formula cannot used to project infectious disease growth rates. I forgot what the formula used is called but its a heck of lot more complicated. __________________ Guardian of the honey and nuts Let's assume I'm right, it'll save time.

04-03-20, 12:08 PM	#2317
August Wayfaring Stranger Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Massachusetts Posts: 22,689 Downloads: 0 Uploads: 0	Back on the 20th of March we had about 300 deaths in this country attributed to Covid. We have also been told that the death rate would double every 2.5 days. Well I am no math expert so maybe my numbers are off but i'm thinking that we should be at somewhere about 11-12k dead yet we're still about half that at 6k, well short of the seasons (preliminary) flu death toll of 24,000 to 63,000 BTW. Date Projected (@2.5) - Actual 23 March - 750 - 233 26 March - 1875 - 1500 29 March - 4687 - 2400 01 April - 11,717 - 4600 03 April - 29,294 - 6000 05 April - 73,234 08 April - 183,086 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/...ntl/index.html https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...n-be-deceiving

04-03-20, 12:54 PM	#2323
Rockstar Rear Admiral Join Date: Nov 2002 Location: Zendia Bar & Grill Posts: 11,886 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	Exponential growth accounts for unconstrained growth (simplified math). Its the Verhulst Model I think that's used to determine more realistic growth projections. (for me mind boggling math). __________________ Guardian of the honey and nuts Let's assume I'm right, it'll save time.