The CHN/ China thread

Skybird · 04-15-21, 05:53 AM

Since I would predict growing tensions and most likely ultimate confrontation with China, and the Taiwan issue slowly boils hotter and hotter and the Chinese economic acting affects us all already now and the cyberwar already is hotter than hot, I think a thread to collect all entries on these topics might be on order. After all, we have UK, US, and GER threads already.

Skybird · 04-15-21, 05:56 AM

It looks as if Taiwan is not up to the task of defending itself with any realistic chance!? And the situation seems to constantly detoriate. Not due to Bejing pressure only, but because of Taiwans own laziness.

That allows the question why if Taiwan lets things slide like this, any US sailor or marine or pilot should be worth it to fight their war for them?

Taiwains example reminds me of Germany and its "defence"

policy.

https://www.dw.com/en/taiwans-army-i...ack/a-57102659

Jimbuna · 04-15-21, 06:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skybird

Taiwains example reminds me of Germany and its "defence" policy.

Best analogy I've read in a while

Catfish · 04-15-21, 06:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skybird

[...] That allows the question why if Taiwan lets things slide like this, any US sailor or marine or pilot should be worth it to fight their war for them?
Taiwains example reminds me of Germany and its "defence"

policy. [...]

I somehow agree .. but is there still a policy?

Last i heard was that the artificial rivets (not needed, the hull is welded, just for show) of the Gorch Fock had costed 200,000 Euros, because they all have to be welded on the plates, every each and single one.
There can be no better way than fake rivets on a 100-year-old sailing ship, to impress any adversary..

But then
1. Why does german "freedom" has to be "defended" in the Hindukusch (Afghanistan, or in Taiwan, or near Alpaha Centauri?)
2. What has NATO to do with all of it, by definition of its founding.

Defence against bigger countries from military to hegemonial threats is always a a problem for smaller countries (therefore NATO and EU), and almost all other countries are smaller than China, or Russia.

Of course, what you mean is they should do their share in a bigger context of a military union alright, but other than Germany Taiwan is alone, so the comparison to Germany is not quite right. They can probably never build arms and maintain a military on a level compared to China, alone.

What if Taiwan had own nuclear weapons? (I guess the last US ones were removed in 1972?)

Moonlight · 04-15-21, 06:49 AM

Why don't you call it the "Armageddon" thread Skybird because that's what we're counting down to, these countries need to be in there for definite, China, Russia, USA, N Korea and Iran, all of these countries are wanting power beyond what they already have and nothing will stop them from attaining it.
I've been hearing the sound of distant drums for decades and this last year they've suddenly got louder and louder. One of those countries named above will be at the centre of it and once it begins there'll be no stopping it, so put aside all those daft ideas of colonising Mars or anywhere else and prepare thyself for the inevitable Nuclear apocalypse.

Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.

White Horse.
Then I saw when the Lamb broke one of the six seals, and I heard one of the four living creatures saying as with a voice of thunder, "Come." I looked, and behold, a white horse, and he who sat on it had a bow; and a crown was given to him, and he went out conquering and to conquer.

Red Horse
When He broke the second seal, I heard the second living creature saying, "Come." And another, a red horse, went out; and to him who sat on it, it was granted to take peace from Earth, and that men would slay one another; and a great sword was given to him.

Black Horse
When He broke the third seal, I heard the third living creature saying, "Come." I looked, and behold, a black horse; and he who sat on it had a pair of scales in his hand. And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, "A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; but do not damage the oil and the wine."

Pale Horse
When the Lamb broke the fourth seal, I heard the voice of the fourth living creature saying, "Come." I looked, and behold, an ashen horse; and he who sat on it had the name Death; and Hades was following with him. Authority was given to them over a fourth of the earth, to kill with sword and with famine and with pestilence and by the wild beasts of the earth.

Skybird · 04-15-21, 07:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Catfish

Defence against bigger countries from military to hegemonial threats is always a a problem for smaller countries (therefore NATO and EU), and almost all other countries are smaller than China, or Russia.

Of course, what you mean is they should do their share in a bigger context of a military union alright, but other than Germany Taiwan is alone, so the comparison to Germany is not quite right. They can probably never build arms and maintain a military on a level compared to China, alone.

What if Taiwan had own nuclear weapons? (I guess the last US ones were removed in 1972?)

I of course understand the pressure limited demographic numbers mean for availability of young men to serve in the armed forces (Taiwan's Heinsohn war index 2017 was just 0.88, that of Hong Kong, while we are at it, at 0.56), but what the article refers to and what I wonder about is that the Taiwanese let things slide, end madatory armed service, and let trainign and morale and technological levels detoriate, while they should have an interets in achieving right the opposite. Israel has such problems, too. Look what they make of it. They do exactly the oposite. Mandatory service for men and women, mandatory retraining, keeping training and technology levels as high as they can.

Skybird · 04-15-21, 07:43 AM

Does anyone know this novel already, "2034"? I think it sounds like one by Tom Clancy, Red Storm Rising maybe, but the readers' reviews at various sites are quite mixed, marking bad literaric style, shallow technological description and poor narrating. Not certain whether its worth my time...!?

https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/54211065-2034

https://www.amazon.com/2034-Novel-Ne.../dp/1984881256

mapuc · 04-15-21, 01:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skybird

It looks as if Taiwan is not up to the task of defending itself with any realistic chance!? And the situation seems to constantly detoriate. Not due to Bejing pressure only, but because of Taiwans own laziness.

That allows the question why if Taiwan lets things slide like this, any US sailor or marine or pilot should be worth it to fight their war for them?

Taiwains example reminds me of Germany and its "defence"

policy.

https://www.dw.com/en/taiwans-army-i...ack/a-57102659

That's because USA has acted like what we here in Denmark call Curling parents-USA their allied has swept everything away in front of the Taiwan people.

They-the Taiwans know USA will rush to the scene as soon China do something wrong.

Taiwan is not exactly a toothless tiger them self-They just doesn't have the quantity in material and soldiers.

Don't know where Taiwan is when it comes to compare technologies with China.

Markus

Skybird · 04-15-21, 02:07 PM

Taiwan operates Mirage 2000s and older-block F-16s, as well as an own development of wich I never have heard, they also bought Hawkeye AWACS, and still run some older F5s or F20s. Their army is 200.000. Their navy operates I think 2 Diesel submarines, some Kidd destroyers and Perry frigates. Nothing that could intimidate the Chinese with their technologically superior platforms and superior numbers.

As I see it, if the Chiense mean it serious they will sweep Taiwanese latforms on sea and in the air on day one. They will simply flood defences with their own numbers.

They have older verisions of Patriot, plus Stingers and Hawk.

The issue the article I linked to is that they have allowed the forces to slowly degenerate in readiness, training levels, skill, practice, morale, motivation.

I thought for long time otherwise and thought they would be set up better, consideirng that they are a high tech nation. It seems I overestimated them.

As I see it, the US would need to throw its own weight in completely to defend Taiwan. I am still in doubt whether the US would engage with China in a full blwon war, just over Taiwain. The Chinese are a completely other league than anyone the US has ever fought against before, since WW2. Taiwan by itself has simply not the smallest chance to prevent an invasion. They can only hope delay total defeat by fightign the invaders on the island by using according tactics. But that means the island's cities and factories are at Bejing's mercy and can be wiped out at will.

I wonder whether Taiwan maybe has secret nukes?

mapuc · 04-15-21, 02:14 PM

^ "The issue the article I linked to is that they have allowed the forces to slowly degenerate in readiness, training levels, skill, practice, morale, motivation."

As I said it's the Americans fault they have acted like curling parents

Taiwan is not alone there are other countries who USA has swept away problems that may lay ahead.

Markus

Reece · 04-15-21, 09:19 PM

Well I hope when China invades Australia America will help, we have no nukes here and very close to China, I'm sure they are looking at Australia and smacking their lips!!

August · 04-15-21, 10:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reece

Well I hope when China invades Australia America will help, we have no nukes here and very close to China, I'm sure they are looking at Australia and smacking their lips!!

You folks had best see to your own defense. The people running my country now can't be trusted to honor our commitments.

Reece · 04-15-21, 11:56 PM

Thanks, I needed that boost in spirits!!

Skybird · 04-16-21, 07:03 AM

While I see a military collision with China including Australia as absolutely realistic, I doubt that a Chinese invasion of the Australian continent plays a role in it. It will come under attack, bases, installations, industry, yes, but why wasting troops and putting them at risk by invading such a big, empty place? As far as I believe I understood their military strategic goals, they do not need the northern coast for own bases. Conquesting of clearly foreign, distant territories is not what they are after.

Jimbuna · 04-16-21, 08:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Reece

Well I hope when China invades Australia America will help, we have no nukes here and very close to China, I'm sure they are looking at Australia and smacking their lips!!

Best start training those drop bears in the art of covert warfare operations then.

04-15-21, 05:53 AM	#1
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 41,432 Downloads: 9 Uploads: 0	The CHN/ China thread Since I would predict growing tensions and most likely ultimate confrontation with China, and the Taiwan issue slowly boils hotter and hotter and the Chinese economic acting affects us all already now and the cyberwar already is hotter than hot, I think a thread to collect all entries on these topics might be on order. After all, we have UK, US, and GER threads already. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

04-15-21, 05:56 AM	#2
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 41,432 Downloads: 9 Uploads: 0	It looks as if Taiwan is not up to the task of defending itself with any realistic chance!? And the situation seems to constantly detoriate. Not due to Bejing pressure only, but because of Taiwans own laziness. That allows the question why if Taiwan lets things slide like this, any US sailor or marine or pilot should be worth it to fight their war for them? Taiwains example reminds me of Germany and its "defence" policy. https://www.dw.com/en/taiwans-army-i...ack/a-57102659 __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

04-15-21, 06:49 AM	#5
Moonlight Admiral Join Date: Dec 2010 Location: Fookhall Copse Posts: 2,377 Downloads: 184 Uploads: 0	Why don't you call it the "Armageddon" thread Skybird because that's what we're counting down to, these countries need to be in there for definite, China, Russia, USA, N Korea and Iran, all of these countries are wanting power beyond what they already have and nothing will stop them from attaining it. I've been hearing the sound of distant drums for decades and this last year they've suddenly got louder and louder. One of those countries named above will be at the centre of it and once it begins there'll be no stopping it, so put aside all those daft ideas of colonising Mars or anywhere else and prepare thyself for the inevitable Nuclear apocalypse. Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. White Horse. Then I saw when the Lamb broke one of the six seals, and I heard one of the four living creatures saying as with a voice of thunder, "Come." I looked, and behold, a white horse, and he who sat on it had a bow; and a crown was given to him, and he went out conquering and to conquer. Red Horse When He broke the second seal, I heard the second living creature saying, "Come." And another, a red horse, went out; and to him who sat on it, it was granted to take peace from Earth, and that men would slay one another; and a great sword was given to him. Black Horse When He broke the third seal, I heard the third living creature saying, "Come." I looked, and behold, a black horse; and he who sat on it had a pair of scales in his hand. And I heard something like a voice in the center of the four living creatures saying, "A quart of wheat for a denarius, and three quarts of barley for a denarius; but do not damage the oil and the wine." Pale Horse When the Lamb broke the fourth seal, I heard the voice of the fourth living creature saying, "Come." I looked, and behold, an ashen horse; and he who sat on it had the name Death; and Hades was following with him. Authority was given to them over a fourth of the earth, to kill with sword and with famine and with pestilence and by the wild beasts of the earth. __________________

04-15-21, 07:43 AM	#7
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 41,432 Downloads: 9 Uploads: 0	Does anyone know this novel already, "2034"? I think it sounds like one by Tom Clancy, Red Storm Rising maybe, but the readers' reviews at various sites are quite mixed, marking bad literaric style, shallow technological description and poor narrating. Not certain whether its worth my time...!? https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/54211065-2034 https://www.amazon.com/2034-Novel-Ne.../dp/1984881256 __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

04-15-21, 02:07 PM	#9
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 41,432 Downloads: 9 Uploads: 0	Taiwan operates Mirage 2000s and older-block F-16s, as well as an own development of wich I never have heard, they also bought Hawkeye AWACS, and still run some older F5s or F20s. Their army is 200.000. Their navy operates I think 2 Diesel submarines, some Kidd destroyers and Perry frigates. Nothing that could intimidate the Chinese with their technologically superior platforms and superior numbers. As I see it, if the Chiense mean it serious they will sweep Taiwanese latforms on sea and in the air on day one. They will simply flood defences with their own numbers. They have older verisions of Patriot, plus Stingers and Hawk. The issue the article I linked to is that they have allowed the forces to slowly degenerate in readiness, training levels, skill, practice, morale, motivation. I thought for long time otherwise and thought they would be set up better, consideirng that they are a high tech nation. It seems I overestimated them. As I see it, the US would need to throw its own weight in completely to defend Taiwan. I am still in doubt whether the US would engage with China in a full blwon war, just over Taiwain. The Chinese are a completely other league than anyone the US has ever fought against before, since WW2. Taiwan by itself has simply not the smallest chance to prevent an invasion. They can only hope delay total defeat by fightign the invaders on the island by using according tactics. But that means the island's cities and factories are at Bejing's mercy and can be wiped out at will. I wonder whether Taiwan maybe has secret nukes? __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

04-15-21, 02:14 PM	#10
mapuc Fleet Admiral Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Denmark Posts: 19,574 Downloads: 37 Uploads: 0	^ "The issue the article I linked to is that they have allowed the forces to slowly degenerate in readiness, training levels, skill, practice, morale, motivation." As I said it's the Americans fault they have acted like curling parents Taiwan is not alone there are other countries who USA has swept away problems that may lay ahead. Markus __________________ My little lovely female cat

04-15-21, 09:19 PM	#11
Reece CINC Pacific Fleet Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Down Under Posts: 33,684 Downloads: 171 Uploads: 0	Well I hope when China invades Australia America will help, we have no nukes here and very close to China, I'm sure they are looking at Australia and smacking their lips!! __________________ *Sub captains go down with their ship!*

04-15-21, 11:56 PM	#13
Reece CINC Pacific Fleet Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Down Under Posts: 33,684 Downloads: 171 Uploads: 0	Thanks, I needed that boost in spirits!! __________________ *Sub captains go down with their ship!*

04-16-21, 07:03 AM	#14
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 41,432 Downloads: 9 Uploads: 0	While I see a military collision with China including Australia as absolutely realistic, I doubt that a Chinese invasion of the Australian continent plays a role in it. It will come under attack, bases, installations, industry, yes, but why wasting troops and putting them at risk by invading such a big, empty place? As far as I believe I understood their military strategic goals, they do not need the northern coast for own bases. Conquesting of clearly foreign, distant territories is not what they are after. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert. Last edited by Skybird; 04-16-21 at 07:15 AM.