Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Skybird]

Kremlin propaganda raises this claim since quite some time, that wepaons dleivered end up on the internaitonbal black market, they claim that to discourage the West to send further weapons to Ukraine. But so far there is no sign and evidence for heavy weapons being smuggled out of Ukraine, say the Europeans as well as Frontex as well as American authorities.

When the war ends - then it is one needs to have close eyes on these weapons.

Originally Posted by Dargo

Total territory occupied by Russia at some point since Feb. 24: 54,000 square miles.

• Total territory reclaimed by Ukraine since Feb. 24: 29,000. 54% of total territory occupied by Russia.
• Currently occupied by Russia: 25,000.

Thats creative counting. The antidot is to look at this animated day-by-day animation on the maps.

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/F...e_animated.gif

https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/F...f_Ukraine.svg#

The animation covers 2022, not 2023. But ther ehave not been dramatic changes in 2023. Things turned static last winter. Movement came to a crawl.

Russia won a lot of territory in the northern Kyiv region and at Charkiv at the beginning of their invasion, additional to the alrrady occupied territories they held since years, including crimea, yes, they had to withdraw at Kyiv, that is true, but this was - OVER ONE YEAR AGO.

They lost some territory in September 2022 at Charkiv, and in November at Cherson, watch the animated maps.

But the rest of the south-eastern territory the Russians hold, they hold since over one year, in parts since years, and that front is more or less static and we have not seen major gains by Ukraine since then. All this talking of that Ukraine won back half of the occupied territories gives the impression that the situation in the current - since over one year "current" - frontline in the south-east is changing, is seeing massive terioptiral losses by Russia. But that is not the case. Its more a reference to something that happened in the first month of the war, one and a half year ago already.

The claim of from 54000 to 25000 sqm occupied territory only lives of events that date back to the first chatoic month of Russias beginning of the invasion, and then the Ukrainian offensive last autumn that gained ground at Cherson and Charkiv.

The propaganda here tries to sell the public cold stale water from last year as freshly brewed coffee.

Watch that animated map and watch the dates in the top left corner.





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A comprehensive description of the situation and an outlook on the foreseeable future. There is no reason for optimism. None at all. Western governments continue to bury their heads in the sand and talk themselves out of the situation.

https://www-achgut-com.translate.goo..._x_tr_pto=wapp

(...)

Nevertheless, it would be fatal to base any serious military planning on the narrative of the success of Russia's own operations, which is addressed to the Western media. The changes that can currently be observed in Russian strategy are too explosive. Whereas since the beginning of June Moscow's troops have limited themselves to isolated counterattacks by smaller units, the Russian attacks are now being carried out in concert on various sections of the front. The number of forces involved is also steadily increasing.

It is becoming increasingly clear that the Russian General Staff apparently no longer considers the Ukrainian attack potential to be strong enough to carry out substantial attacks on several sections of the front. Instead, it seems to assume that Kiev's pressures will be concentrated only in the south and the Bachmut area. This, in turn, makes it much easier for him to plan major counteroffensives and execute them at the right moment. Anyone who wants to adequately grasp the current state of the war must take into account the fact that Ukraine's summer offensive is not a unified operation, as one is actually accustomed to in wars. Instead, it consists of a series of local advances, each of which has taken place at different sections of the front.

This is accompanied by the fact that none of these offensive efforts pursued far-reaching strategic goals. Instead of the successive execution of a general plan, a daily changing scanning of the front could be observed. This was done with the intention of identifying suitable weak points for possible breakthroughs. However, this did not have a significant effect on the course of the war. Instead of a conflict defined by few but comprehensive battles, we are dealing with a war of attrition in Ukraine. Both sides aim to deplete the enemy's reserves by the end of the summer. Accordingly, as much of the enemy's equipment and personnel as possible is to be destroyed.

As soon as there are signs of a significant weakening of the other side in these areas, the own forces can be combined for a sweeping attack. At least that is the calculation. Whether the necessary capacities will still be available in four to six weeks is currently completely unclear.

(...)

It is understandable that Selenski is trying to spread optimism, it is his job to support the morale of the troops and keep the population rallying around their flag. But we in the West must not believe it, it is propaganda, just as the Russian side's comments are propaganda.

Things turn against Ukraine more and more. It gets destroyed more day by day, and its military does not find a recipe (= does not have the means to break up the Russian lines:

(...)
The German media recently reported that Ukraine had successfully operated on three different fronts. This has given the impression that the liberation of the country is progressing steadily. However, as a look at the main focal points of the fighting shows, this is not the case. In the following, the southern front and the Bachmut area will be examined.

In the south, where the bulk of the fighting has taken place in recent weeks, Ukrainian forces are still trying to break through the five to six kilometre wide strip separating their positions from the first Russian defence lines. As has been described several times, this grey zone is littered with minefields and features sporadic Russian anti-tank defences as well as closely packed garrisons in the villages located there. Six weeks after the start of Kiev's offensive, this area has still not been brought under control. This is bad in that it should actually be the deployment area for larger operations in the southern direction. Conversely, this means that as long as the grey zone is not completely cleared, there can be no talk of further advances.
(...)

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

What is it with that spam alert? I posted the same text as a separate post, now its added to an older post?

[Jimbuna]

Now for todays dose of absolute garbage!!

Lukashenko warns Poland he is 'struggling' to restrain Wagner fighters from invading

Alexander Lukashenko has said Belarus is struggling to restrain Wagner Group fighters from attacking Poland.

The leader of Belarus made the claim at a meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in St Petersburg.

Lukashenko said: "The Wagnerites are beginning to stretch us. I ask, 'Why do you need to go to the West?'

"[They say,] 'We want to go on an excursion to Warsaw, to Rzeszow'."

The Belarusian leader also presented Putin with what he claimed to be a map of Poland's plan to attack Belarus.

Putin recently warned an attack on Belarus would constitute an attack on Russia.

Lukashenko said: "As we can see, the ground is being prepared."

Lukashenko said Wagner troops, who launched joint drills with the Belarusian military on Thursday almost a month after their short-lived rebellion against Moscow, wanted to go west but Belarus would not allow the mercenary force to relocate.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...b8dc090a&ei=14

The best answer should be NATO sending a few thousand more troops with accompanying armour and air assets with the message "Ready whenever you are"

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Skybird

What is it with that spam alert? I posted the same text as a separate post, now its added to an older post?

Due to recent incidents involving multiple posts without any replies from others the bar was set at three as a trigger thereby giving everyone a chance to participate.

[Skybird]

What? I do not understand a thing.

[Jimbuna]

Take it to PM then.

[mapuc]

Does Russia have enough resources to retake most of what they lost to Ukraine last autumn ?

Does Ukraine have enough resources to withstand this Russian counteroffensive ?

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Does Russia have enough resources to retake most of what they lost to Ukraine last autumn ?

South and East: they will keep what they have, the losses there are small. North, Kyiv: well, they had it for just a month or so, and took a heavy beating in that month.
They must not retake anythign, they will be happy to keep what they have, but at Charkiv they obviously have gone on the offensive. And different to Western media reports it seems it is not just a small distractive effort, but a major attack. Ukraine seems to seriously struggle to keep them from advancing at a higher speed.

Does Ukraine have enough resources to withstand this Russian counteroffensive ?

(edit: I messed it up in the following paragraph, I was focussing on Russia, not Ukraine that you asked for. In short, Ukraine is under pressure, and when The Russians advance, that necessarily means the Ukrainains currently fall back accordingly. )


Yes. Obviously they have, so far, and I do not see their lines breaking up any time soon. If ever. I think it is by now wishful thinking. Both sides now again use their artikllery to deliver each other a battle of attrition of logistics, that means in a few weeks the Ukraine will possibly not have anything left anymore that is heavy and strong enough to support an offensive and advance through a breach in Russian lines. Media soemtime ssay the Ukriane still holds back 6 or seven briagdes, I think that is simply wrong, they hold back just 4, and these already have partially engaged their artillery. I think this description is the more credible and scenario.

Worse, as I just said, and as the article that Jim edit-added to my posting #46 also confirms: the Russians seem to gain confidence that the Ukrainians will not be able to make their offensive a crushing threat - and have gone on the offensive themselves elsewhere, at Charkiv. Why that is no distraciton, but indicates confidence? Because in significant parts they have send not new troops there, but shifted troops from the south-east to Charkiv, pulling them from front sectors where the Ukrainians attack. That tells something about the pressure of the Ukrainian attacks there, it seems to be rather weak. Obviously Ukrainian pressure there is such that the Russians can pull troops out instead of sending reinforcements in.

As it currenty goes, Ukraine bleeds out. Ukraine presses to get to Melitopol, but it is still 60km from the city, and has advanced in the past six-eight weeks just less than 10 km, and they have not even made contact with the major first defence line. Across the front, the Russian lines seem to hold - practically everyhwere, where they hve three lines in echelons, or just one line: they hold. The coast of Asov Sea still is about 90 km away.

All that speaks against Ukraine.

[Jimbuna]

[mapuc]

^^ Thank you for your answer to my question.

Why did I think of the trench war in WWI when I read your answer ?

I also think you're right when you said time is on the Russian side.

That is if Putler decide to declare war on Ukraine and thereby open up for hundred of thousands of reserves.

As Dargo once wrote- Russia has all their soldiers incl. reserves at the front while Ukraine has only 2/3rd of their soldiers at the front.

It's not exactly unlimited manpower from where Putler get his men from these days.

You also wrote:
"They must not retake anything, they will be happy to keep what they have"
In this case they don't need a lot of soldiers to defend what they have.

Markus

[Skybird]

Ukrainian front soldiers say they were not expecting so many mines, and that their unit had avanced one kilometer in one month. Further that 100m of gained ground cost them 4-5 soldiers.

https://www-tagesspiegel-de.translat..._x_tr_pto=wapp


The losses must be very high on both sides.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Ukrainian front soldiers say they were not expecting so many mines, and that their unit had avanced one kilometer in one month. Further that 100m of gained ground cost them 4-5 soldiers.

https://www-tagesspiegel-de.translat..._x_tr_pto=wapp


The losses must be very high on both sides.

Shouldn't they not get demining equipment from USA ?

Maybe they should use one of the old tactics. Use explosive cables-Where they fire from some gun-like equipment and they fly 25 to 50 meters ahead and the operator press a button and the entire cable explode and any mines under or very close to this cable will explode.

Markus

[August]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Shouldn't they not get demining equipment from USA ?

Maybe they should use one of the old tactics. Use explosive cables-Where they fire from some gun-like equipment and they fly 25 to 50 meters ahead and the operator press a button and the entire cable explode and any mines under or very close to this cable will explode.

Markus

Yes and also some more from various European countries I believe but the problem is quantity. They are trying to clear very dense minefields with a fraction of the equipment necessary.

[Jimbuna]

Well, so much for Chinas supposed neutrality.

It is being reported that Russia imported drones from China worth more than 100 million dollars and has ordered ordered 100,000 bulletproof vests and 100,000 helmets.

I'm not in the least surprised.