Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Andreas86]

Originally Posted by mapuc

I do hope I'm wrong I just remembered the first Iraqi war where the allied not only threw bombs in Kuwait but also in Baghdad, Basra a.s.o.

Markus

That's an understatement.. The first phase of the month long air campaign they focused mainly on Iraqi IADS, command & control, military, logistical and air force targets throughout Iraq. Iraq never stood a chance to defend either itself or Kuwait after the initial air war decimation.

I hope the US / NATO keeps out of this, it is getting scary. We don't want World War 3 over Ukraine, neither does Russia I hope.


According to the BBC, Putin said this in his speech last night; "You didn't want us to be friends," was how he put it to the West, "but you didn't have to make an enemy of us."


There is some thruth in this. Western politicians and media has done much to sour relations with Russia in the last decade.

[Skybird]

I currently see no realistic scenario or chance for this escalating into a NATO-Russia world war. Lets be realistic: Russia has not the military conventional power to take on all of NATO even without the US, and its military budget also is anything but giant. The problem however is, the Russians have the will and ability to amass their limited forces in a small place and by that reaching a focussed and superior fightingpower in this place. NATO's, European forces alone have their forces scattered all over the place and thus are weak everywhere. Only a fraction of NATO forces stand against a huge part of amassed Russian forces this way. That leaves the initiave for opening escalations to Russia, and NAOT must always just react. This must be changed. The West must finally get ahead of Putin's thinkinging cycle. He must me forced needing to react to us - not we to him.


I think the age where NATO should stick to treaties limiting its presence in Eastern memberstates must be seen as done and over, and we should massively and fundametally collect all those scattered forces from European countries and focus them along the borderstates to Russia and Belarus, that way giving the Russians something to think about instead of to laugh about. We should also get tactical nukes back into Europe, and for a start having them in reach of Kaliningrad where Russia in fact already has tactical nukes in place again, and a dangerous far-reaching missile and SAM shield that penetrates deeply into NATO'S central areas.



It does not matter anymore how we got to this situation , and who was right and who was wrong, and what was done and what should have been done and what has not been done. Its the situation now that we have to deal with, and there is no other situation than this one right now, period. Thats what should now be the focus of our actions. How we got here is no longer relevant. That we are here and nowhere else is what counts.



Also it is without alternative that Germany finally gets disziplined. Its russophile and dependency-raising diplomatic extra tours no longer are just an exccentric hobby, but have become a threatening mortgage for the whole Euopean block affecting the whole block'S defence ability and determination. By this I mean the others must mount - if needed: breaking - pressure on Germany to give up its stupid policy supporting this dependency and preventing actions against Putin, and its de facto dependency on Russia's gas must be provisionally solved in the short term for this winter in any way that works. Germany has become a real problem for everybody. The SPD. The trade exports. The Russian gas imports. In the past months Germany has more acchieved for the net benefit of team Russia than team West, I'm sorry to say. This has to change, and if the Germans do not voluntarily do so, then the Western nations must unite against it. The West can no longer tolerate this Russian "ally" in its centre belly.



This also means the SPD has to finally, finally, finally chop of Schroeders head - Putin's best man in Europe. Under his reign already Nord Stream 1 was formalised and finalized. Since then he is counted as one of Putin's most loyal vasalls, and now has high ranks in the Gazprom hierarchy.

[Skybird]

Immerhin...

Germany just announced a freeze for Nord Stream 2 (and left a backdoor open...)

A freeze is somethign that can get unfrozen again. What is needed is to bury this project once and forever. I still feel shabby for having defended it myself for so long. What devil has ridden me there...

The excuses for freezing instead of burying it probably is that they want to encourage Putin to give back the two Ukrainian regions (not mentioning: the Crimea). If so this illustrates just an ongoing daydreaming. The Russians will not give back the chunks they have bitten off Ukraine.

[Skybird]

I also want to mention one scenario that so far apparently nobody has seriously mentioned or taken into account.

What if Putin has, in a medical meaning, lost his mind, has become stupid, lost control of his mind, suffers a n unrecongised undoasgnses personality disorder, has become insane, paranoid in a psychiatric meaning, has a tumor in his head, a dysbalance in neutransmitters?

The man is 70. Such health issues can happen at such ages. If I called Trump's mind and personality distorted to the standards of psychiatric relevance, why not Putin then?

His last long speech was so twisted and in parts, in my perception at least, confused, that it really marked some criteria in my diagnostic memories.


Can we really assume that Putin is a sane man any longer? A coldy calcuating, cold blooded sane man, but nevertheless: "sane"? Maybe is is just an old fart who feels his time on Earth is running out and he has not what it takes to stand up to that.

[Skybird]

The Tagesspiegel writes:




Whoever is surprised by Putin's invasion has not been paying proper attention



February 22, 2022, and the road to it will go down in the history books. In the early hours of the morning, Russian President Vladimir Putin sent troops into the territory of Ukraine, thus upsetting the European peace order.

The meeting of the Russian Security Council on Monday in front of running cameras, the separatist leaders' request for recognition of the territories, Putin's signing of the relevant decrees, and finally the president's nearly hour-long angry speech - this grotesque spectacle was carefully choreographed and planned for a long time.

A week ago, when German Chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke with Putin in the Kremlin about war and peace, the Russian head of state had apparently already made up his mind. On the same day, deputies of the State Duma called on the president to recognize the self-proclaimed "people's republics" in the Donbass - that was also part of this staging.

If you really want to understand Putin, the first thing you have to understand is that the Russian leader has only feigned willingness to talk in recent weeks. As is so often the case with Putin, it would have been enough to listen very carefully. Last summer, he wrote a long essay in which he tried to justify historically why Ukraine was not a separate state and why Russians and Ukrainians were in fact "one people. Putin once called the end of the Soviet Union the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century. But those who have warned for years that he wanted to reverse that move, at least in part, were not taken seriously, especially in Germany.

The German government is now facing the shards of a Russia policy that, even after the annexation of Crimea and Russia's intervention in eastern Ukraine, prayerfully relied on "dialogue" and "channels of communication."

It was the Germans and the French who brokered the Minsk agreements in 2014 and 2015, and who continued to frantically cling to these agreements even when it had long been clear that they could not bring peace. Only a year after the Crimea annexation, the German government gave the green light to the Nord Stream 2 project, ignoring the fact that this pipeline could become a tool of Putin's geopolitical interests.

The troop buildup on Ukraine's borders began when the pipeline was completed and Russia no longer needed to rely on pipelines through the neighboring country. This is by no means a coincidence. Now Putin could move against Ukraine without regard to economic losses.

Russia's war in eastern Ukraine did not just begin on Monday night, when Russian troops, cynically declared by Putin to be "peacekeepers," rolled across the border. Russian soldiers have been fighting in the Donbass since as early as 2014. One of the West's mistakes was not to have said so openly. Anyone who is really surprised by Putin's actions today has not been paying proper attention over the past eight years.

The man in the Kremlin, on the other hand, has had twenty years to analyze the weaknesses of his Western partners. With the deployment of troops on the borders with Ukraine and the statements intercepted by Western intelligence services, he aroused fears of a major invasion by the Russian army.

The West has been preparing for this scenario. But the question of what to do in the event of a smaller Russian military action against Ukraine has unfortunately remained open in recent weeks.

Was it part of the Kremlin's calculation to get away with a secession, invasion and later annexation of the "people's republics"? However, Putin's speech on Monday evening, which only marginally dealt with the Donbass and in reality with the whole of Ukraine, speaks against this. A further military advance by Russian troops in Ukraine has not been averted, especially since the territories claimed by Moscow's puppets in the Donbass are significantly larger than their current sphere of influence.

A small sanctions package like after the annexation of Crimea will not be enough this time. How the West now responds to the challenge from Putin's Russia will also go down in the history books.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[Catfish]

^ there have been rumours of Parkinson and Alzheimer, however all elderly potentates often develop a nostalgia for those "good old times"; the world setting when they were young and so on.

I do not know how to say this properly, but i think i overestimated Putin.



re Nord Stream I and II, if #I is being cut off Germany has 40 percent less gas. So, sanctions anyone

[Skybird]

He may live in a perception system of the world that signficantly varies from that of the others, but within that framework he acts quite reasonably and predictable. Thats why I am not certain on what I said on his mental health status. My perception of values and world and politcal things also significantly differs from that of the political mainstream of the woke crowd - does that make me an insane?

Maybe I would be wise not to ask this question the mainstream and the woke crowd...


They report that just half an hour before Scholz anncunced the freeze for the pipeline certification Putin said that he wants to continue deliver gas to Europe. Well, thats an issue of interest in the coming hours and days, isnt it. Did Putin know of the German decision when he said that, did he anticipate it or did he not believe the Germans would touch NS2?



German econjomy and climnate mionstrre Habeck wanmred of rising costs for energy and gas, and said he wants to see an acceleration of buiolding renewables.

To leave the remaining three nuclear reactors active - he said not. Ideology still trumps over economic reason and realism, obviously.

I'm sure his home is warm and cozy and he will suffer not financial needs. Its the money of the others and their future pensions that he burns.

[Skybird]

FOCUS writes:


The shock was great on February 1. The level in German gas storage facilities had fallen to just 36.9 percent, a low for that time. A 2015 study had warned of precisely this scenario: In an analysis for the German Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology, the auditing firm Becker Büttner Held had determined at the time that a filling level of 40 percent was needed on February 1 of each year to survive an extreme cold period of more than seven days.

What only complicates the situation in German gas storage facilities is that the Federal Republic is highly dependent on gas imports, with just over 50 percent of all supplies coming from Russia. This means that geopolitics is once again becoming a concrete factor for German heaters. This is because Russia's President Vladimir Putin seems determined to unleash a war in Ukraine.

The Europeans will most likely respond with tough economic sanctions. It is no longer out of the question that Moscow will cut off its gas supplies in response - even if it then has to forego valuable revenues. Will German supplies be sufficient in this case?

Yes, the German government is increasingly convinced of that. According to current calculations, Germany should probably be able to get through the winter even if Russia were to cut off its natural gas supplies completely, according to sources in the Ministry of Economics who told FOCUS Online. First the "mirror" had reported.

According to the report, the ministry and the German government are optimistic for two reasons. First, thanks to mild weather, Germany also consumed less gas in February than feared. January was already unusually warm for this time of year. And secondly, the Federal Republic was in a position to purchase so-called liquid gas in sufficient quantities to make up for any shortfalls.

In fact, German storage levels fell even more slowly in February than in January. According to the European Association of Gas Storage Operators, German reserves were still 31.07 percent full on Sunday, with daily net withdrawals averaging only half as much as in January.

The slightly relaxed situation allows the German government to take a more decisive stance toward Russia: At noon on Tuesday, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) announced that certification of the German-Russian Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline would be halted for the time being. "And without this certification, after all, Nord Stream 2 cannot go into operation," Scholz said.

The controversial project has repeatedly brought the German government criticism from its Western partners, but Germany had always defended it as economically necessary. Now, however, the about-face: Scholz said he had ordered an investigation into how Germany's energy supplies could also be secured in this way. "The situation is now different."

However: the prerequisite for optimism about gas stocks is that temperatures are roughly in line with the long-term average, according to ministry circles. That means: In the case of a longer cold wave all calculations would be for the ton. But how likely is a cold March?

"Winter in Europe is not quite over yet," says weather expert Jan Schenk from The Weather Channel (TWC) to FOCUS Online, "But we can already say that there will be no more extreme cold spell. Because we know from history that a warm spring follows when the polar vortex is as strong as it is this year." And, Schenk adds, "In this case, climate change is helping us. It's getting significantly too warm."

Paradoxically, this very climate change also offers Germany the chance to free itself from dependence on Russian gas. This is because a rapid expansion of renewable energies, which climate change makes necessary anyway, also reduces the demand for fossil resources such as gas. According to the ministry, the expansion of wind and solar energy must now be resolutely pursued in order to break away from Russian gas. With a series of legislative initiatives, the house of Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) wants to open up new areas for renewable energies this year.

In the medium term, however, Germany will remain dependent on Russia. Even if Germany can survive this winter without Russian gas, that says nothing about future winters. For example, what will we do in the winter of 2023, when gas stocks have yet to recover from 2022, with wholesale prices still running hot? "Normalizing storage levels by next winter will be difficult if Russia does not change its gas policy," says Steffen Bukold, a political scientist and energy policy consultant. The Ministry of Economics therefore wants to expand German capacities for liquefied natural gas, among other things.

Should Russia completely stop its gas deliveries, Europe would indeed get through the winter, concluded an analysis by the European economic think tank Bruegel as early as the beginning of February. But if Moscow were to stop supplying gas in the coming winters as well, "it would be harder for the EU to cope." Replacing Russian supplies elsewhere "would be very expensive at best and physically impossible at worst," the Bruegel analysis says.

And in a sense, Putin is already turning off the gas tap, at least ever so slightly. According to industry representatives, Russia's state-owned natural gas company Gazprom is currently meeting its supply obligations. But so-called gas flow data from the Association of European Transmission System Operators show that Gazprom is also not making any effort to send additional gas into the pipelines, even though it would currently find a good buyer price.

"Not a cubic meter more arrives with us than is stipulated in the contracts," EU Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis told Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland on Tuesday. "And Russia is doing nothing to alleviate the current complicated energy situation in the EU." Asked whether Russia could use its natural gas as a political weapon in the wake of the current tensions, the deputy to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen replied, "That can happen."

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

[clayton]

To hell with Putin—the little tyrant.

[clayton]

Y’all need to watch what you download.

[mapuc]

Thank you Skybird for your in-deep analysis of this ongoing crisis.

You're right it will not come so far where we in a couple of month from now is fighting a WWIII.

NATO will do almost anything to prevent it and Putin know this.

Some days ago in a Danish article it said-Our defence has been cut so much that we today can't defend Denmark not even part of it. It will take decades to rebuild it back to as it was in the 80'ies.

The only offensive we have is used in foreign countries-and it's only a brigrade.
(Taken from my memory)

Markus

[clayton]

“NATO will do almost anything to prevent this. . .”
You think so? I don't.
I believe that little corporal has finally crossed the line, and he needs to watch out.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by clayton

“NATO will do almost anything to prevent this. . .”
You think so? I don't.
I believe that little corporal has finally crossed the line, and he needs to watch out.

It's an impression I get by following the news here in Denmark and Sweden. That NATO will use strong words and sanction in hope it will make Putin regret his moves.

If, as some fear, Putin decide to take on the Baltic states-we will know if NATO is worth its money or not. They will not start a war on Ukraine that's for sure.

Markus

[Skybird]

Putin takes the US serious, the EU not.

For the US, Russia is the third biggest oil importer. But so far Biden has not announced sanctions that would punish the US economy like European sanctions would puniosh not only Russia but European nations.

Putin will take note of this nuance. And the Europeans will not find the American behaviour so far any helpful.

I think it is like I said some week sgao, that Putin wan ted to keep the Ukraine destabvlised by taking the Donbass, and securing nthat trophy win by making much bigger claism and demands (like the US withdrawing from Europe), so to get away with the Donbass prey when then "falling back" from his exaggerated demands. Two steps forward, one step back, means one step gained.

Macronman ran his Mposcow mission as a PR coup to score in the presidential eleciton race back home. That trick now exploded and backfires against him. Mosocw showed what it thinks of France's relevance and weight: nothing.

Same with Scholz. The germans think they have special relations to Russia like the UK thinks it has to the US. The ygemrans thought their words have wieght in the Krmelin. Well. That illusion was revealed to be what it is: a lie to oneself. Neithen Bubble-Olaf nor Macronman have any weight Putin pays attention to. OBVIOUSLY. He lied to their faces when he met them. The decision he now showed must have already been taken when he met them.


While the EU mulls sanctions, it also said it wants to keep diplomatic channels open and "bring Putin to the negotiation table". I wonder if Brussles really has learned anything even if it would release sanctions. I think not really. You camnot negotiate anything with Putin. You just cannot. They just have been lied to their faces by him. And want to talk on. Why they think any agreement given by Putin is worth anything, I cannot comprehend. They just have been lied to by him repeatedly straight to their facesm and they still wonder? They seem to be mascohsists, and maybe like to be lied to. Putin lies. Putin uses war and conquest. For Putin that is legitimate political acting.

[mapuc]

^ I doubt that Putin takes Biden serious-The US military is another thing and I think Putin respect it.

But a military strength isn't stronger than its civilian part in this case Biden in the White house.

Could be wrong.

Markus