US Politics Thread 2016-2020

[Rockstar]

You can bet there's a lot of pressure on Xi Jinping too. The U.S. is selling arms to a more assertive Taiwan. We have an aircraft carrier parked in disputed waters. He is also facing criticism of his policies toward Uighurs in Xinjiang. Then there is the Hong Kong pro-democracy movement gaining traction. And of course the trade tariffs.


And I dont think for a moment the U.S. sees China as an inferior. Quite the contrary I think China is seen as an increasingly powerful economic and military player on the world stage. As John Bolton said "This is not just talking about tariffs and the terms of trade. This is a question of power."

Frankly IMHO this is how shooting wars can start. Who's gonna blink first?

[Skybird]

I focussed on the de facto trade and currency war when saying that China'S quiver of arrows is almost full, and America'S almost or even is empty. The taxes by Trump can be and have been countered by currency devaluation by China. China has de facto forbidden agricultural imports from america, which has to be swallowed by some core group of Trump'S voters.

Whatever Trump throws at China in these conflicts, currency and taxes and economy - China can counter it, and than retaliate some more.

And what else can Trump now do? There is not much left.

The boycot on Huawei only will have short and medium-term effects, for it was the starting signal for the Chinese to focus stronger on producing the American-imported components themselves from near future on. And they can ban Microsoft, Facebook, Google and the likes completely on the Chinese market, if needed. Wjhat Trump can do, the Chinese can as well.

Face it, Rockstar: so far Bejing has played with Trump very nicely and gently.

Further, the currency devaluation competition wanted by Trump and now done by Bejing, hurts exporting nations different from these two. The Euro becomes more expensive by these acts, and so do European (=German) exports. It will not get forgotten, at some future opportunity the bill for this will be sent to Washington in return.

Militarily, I think since years already that an American victory should not be taken for granted. And the balance in these years has constantly shifted in favour of the Chinese. I think due to the fact that such a war would be fought close to China, the chances are better for China already now. Land based missiles, land based air power, logistics and length of supply lines, number of navy units in service and in production: it all counts for the Chinese. Plus the circumstance that China and Russia have not hidden their new-found military cooperation. All together that makes for some very tough nut to crack. And the qualiuty of the Chiense forces today is not that of 30 years ago. Their modernization program and its speed was breathtaking in the past 15 years. Technologically they may not yet be totally oen par with the US, but numbers and supply lines more than make up for compensating the remaining difference. The US would need to kill much of the navy and supporting infrastructure on land, and their air force - China only needs to sink one or two carriers and a small part of the operational US submarines in the region, while China's public opinion at home can sustain much higher losses on sea, than would the American public.

[vienna]

Originally Posted by Mr Quatro

Sounds more like you (vienna) were drunk then and sober now, but all I have to go on is your written words

Given I have long been on a course of medications which my doctors, and the paperwork accompanying said medications, assure me of severely dire consequences of mixing alcohol with the meds, I, to my dismay, have not been able to partake for some 15 years now, so sobriety or lack thereof is not an issue. As indicated in one of my prior posts, I often try to manage several activities at once and, in the course, some often suffer, as in the case of an unclear posting I was asked to clarify by a member, so I complied. There appeared to be confusion by yet another member over my response being to his posting, so I clarified that issue...

Given you immediately went to an issue of sobriety regarding my post(s), may I venture to guess you are speaking from self-experiential reference?...


Regarding Chine and trade, the whole Trump "policy" has been, like pretty much everything he has done in office, a mish-mash of a mess. In his haste to 'prove' himself to his base, he has taken the most simplistic measures to address a highly complex issue. International trade, with any nation, is not a matter of idiot campaign sloganeering; ramifications and implications of making wrong moves and/or measures can be devastating. Trump, and by extension his advisors, have been royally played by China and the US public has been played by Trump and his minions. Just the oft repeated and very widely debunked assertion China would be paying the tariff(s) is so on its face ridiculous, it ranks along with the assertion Mexico will pay for a border wall...

China has been biding its time, making adjustments in its trade posture to offset Trump's actions; time is on their side. While Trump has been thumping his chest and rattling his sabers, China has rather quietly shifting from US sources to other nations; last week I noticed this news story:


Exclusive: China to inspect Argentine crushers, could unlock No. 1 soymeal market --

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-a...-idUSKCN1UP1WT


When Trump imposed his new tariffs, I wondered if it was in response to the above development; if so, it has seriously backfired: China has halted purchases of US products and has allowed the Yuan to 'float' against the dollar, in effect devaluing China's currency. This serves to make Chinese exports 'cheaper' to US buyers, pretty much offsetting the effects of the tariffs. A further effect will be making US products much more expensive to Chinese buyers; not to mention the effect on Chinese tourism to the US when the tourists realize they're going to get much less 'bang for the Yuan'. Hotels, restaurants, airlines, etc., are going to feel the pinch...

...and what about the farmers who not only are seeing their current markets drying up, they are looking at the continued loss of market relationships with China they have nurtured over decades. The possibility they will ever get back to anywhere near the status they enjoyed before the Idiot-In-Chief made yet another immense blunder are virtually nil. About a month ago, I saw an interview with a small farmer who had lost a Chinese customer due to the tariffs, a customer with whom he had built a six-year relationship and whose custom represented a very large percentage of his revenue; the farmer noted that while the multi-billion dollar bail-outs offered by the Trump administration might help in the short term, he, and other farmers, faced long-term losses they new were not going to be covered by Federal indemnifications; once those customers were gone, they were probably gone forever...

It should be interesting in 2020 to see how Trump fares in those states that are going to be so hard hit by idiot trade machinations. In regards to the farms, at first the announced cost was US 5 Billion dollars; then it was US 12 Billion dollars and, now, it is said to be US 16 Billion dollars; and that is just the given amounts: there is no comprehensive gauge of the financial impact on ancillary and/or related businesses. So far, I haven't heard of China paying a single Yuan of the tariffs...

Farmers vote, as do their families, neighbors, business associates, etc. Trump won in a lot of farm states by a whisper of votes: will that whisper be replaced by howls of disapproval come Election Day, 2020?...








<O>

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Skybird

I focussed on the de facto trade and currency war when saying that China'S quiver of arrows is almost full, and America'S almost or even is empty. The taxes by Trump can be and have been countered by currency devaluation by China. China has de facto forbidden agricultural imports from america, which has to be swallowed by some core group of Trump'S voters.

Whatever Trump throws at China in these conflicts, currency and taxes and economy - China can counter it, and than retaliate some more.

And what else can Trump now do? There is not much left.

The boycot on Huawei only will have short and medium-term effects, for it was the starting signal for the Chinese to focus stronger on producing the American-imported components themselves from near future on. And they can ban Microsoft, Facebook, Google and the likes completely on the Chinese market, if needed. Wjhat Trump can do, the Chinese can as well.

Face it, Rockstar: so far Bejing has played with Trump very nicely and gently.

Further, the currency devaluation competition wanted by Trump and now done by Bejing, hurts exporting nations different from these two. The Euro becomes more expensive by these acts, and so do European (=German) exports. It will not get forgotten, at some future opportunity the bill for this will be sent to Washington in return.

Militarily, I think since years already that an American victory should not be taken for granted. And the balance in these years has constantly shifted in favour of the Chinese. I think due to the fact that such a war would be fought close to China, the chances are better for China already now. Land based missiles, land based air power, logistics and length of supply lines, number of navy units in service and in production: it all counts for the Chinese. Plus the circumstance that China and Russia have not hidden their new-found military cooperation. All together that makes for some very tough nut to crack. And the qualiuty of the Chiense forces today is not that of 30 years ago. Their modernization program and its speed was breathtaking in the past 15 years. Technologically they may not yet be totally oen par with the US, but numbers and supply lines more than make up for compensating the remaining difference. The US would need to kill much of the navy and supporting infrastructure on land, and their air force - China only needs to sink one or two carriers and a small part of the operational US submarines in the region, while China's public opinion at home can sustain much higher losses on sea, than would the American public.

I will only go out on the limb to say that China and the U.S. each has it's own economic strengths and weaknesses. We could spend days pointing them out and just scratch the surface. But from what I've read China is not some unstoppable economic juggernaut that can win the day by simply devaluing the Yuan a few points, by doing so they are just buying a little time and some good PR.

Considering China's recent history of occupation, abuse and humiliation by the British and other foreign powers they are not gonna be quick to back down. Again, its things like this which can turn into a shooting war real quick. I for one take nothing for granted and never ever underestimate your enemy.

[vienna]

Underestimating the enemy, overestimating his actual position, and taking things for granted has been the core of Trump's mis-administration and the core weakness of himself. If he listened, even a bit, to the counsel of those in far better positions to understand the myriad complexities of issues he seems to think can be addressed by simplistic sloganeering and cartoonish posturing, we might be in a better position as a country...


2020 and the change in administration can't come son enough...







<O>

[Rockstar]

According to FED Chair testimony its the chinese economy that has been slowing down for quite sometime now. On the otherhand he said ours is doing much better. A case of strike while the iron's hot I guess.

[Skybird]

War cannot be about suffering no own losses, it is about suffering less losses or being able to digest losses better, than the enemy.



https://translate.google.de/translat...rsprechen.html

[Rockstar]

https://translate.google.de/translat...rsprechen.html


But Beijing has a lot more in the quiver.

"The Chinese government may ask its citizens to boycott American goods," says Luca Paolini, chief strategist at Swiss private bank Pictet. "For example, it might call for it to stop buying iPhones." For Beijing, it would be easy to raise popular sentiment to follow the call.

I agree a Chinese authoritarian government could quite easily rally the masses and party faithful to stop buying iphone's. But what happens when they boycott Apple? We still have quivers too. Almost a year ago there was talk that if the tariff wars really heat up APPLE could move manufacturing elsewhere. What does that mean for the worker in China? They lose their jobs, they dont have money to spend to support their own economy, to buy Chinese goods or support their families. China is primarily a foreign investor manufacturing hub and an export driven economy. They lose that and the feces will really hit the rotating oscillator then.


If they sold off or stopped buying treasury bonds that would hurt. But if they did, they would in essence be shooting themselves in the foot too. Read a little why they buy them to begin with. No matter how many times they pinned the Yuan their economy would take a nose dive and hard. Granted no easy ride for either of us I think if they did that.

[August]

One of the better explanations about the myth of the "Southern Strategy"

[Dowly]

Figured you'd eat up the **** PragerU produces.


For those not aware: PragerU is constantly caught of cherry picking and presenting false information. It is essentially a propaganda channel.

[em2nought]

I'm pretty sure Epstein's (ummmm) suicide now belongs in the US Politics thread.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...jail-cell.html


Good to see the FBI on the job as I have complete faith in them.

[Platapus]

I am sure that will bring out the conspiracy nutters.

[August]

Originally Posted by Dowly

Figured you'd eat up the **** PragerU produces.


For those not aware: PragerU is constantly caught of cherry picking and presenting false information. It is essentially a propaganda channel.

Any actual facts contained in the video that you care to dispute or is your entire argument going to be that you don't like the source? Hmmm?

Is this Vanderbilt University professor wrong? Is she lying?

[Mr Quatro]

Originally Posted by em2nought

I'm pretty sure Epstein's (ummmm) suicide now belongs in the US Politics thread.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...jail-cell.html


Good to see the FBI on the job as I have complete faith in them.

Yes this belongs in the US Politics thread and the UK thread and the German thread and in the Russian thread and in the funny pictures thread too


Could this be one of those assisted suicides ? (for money of course)

The Clinton's trail gets longer

[Platapus]

I was right