Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

They are not wrong. Sabotage: deliberately destroy, damage, or obstruct (something), especially for political or military advantage.

[Jimbuna]

I tend to look at the source before believing or otherwise.

[Dargo]

The Chief Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine predicts that "crucial events" may shortly occur at the fronts.

Source: Andrii Yusov, representative of the press service of the Chief Directorate of Intelligence, on the joint 24/7 newscast

Quote: "It is too early to speak about the retreat of the Russian forces from the territory of Ukraine, but Ukraine will be liberating all its territories occupied by the enemy.

In the very near future, there will certainly be some crucial events on all fronts. These events won’t necessarily be connected to particular dates, though Independence Day [of Ukraine, on 24 August -ed.] is being discussed a great deal at the moment, and this factor should be taken into consideration"

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/17/7363664/

[Dargo]

KYIV — For two months, Ukraine has been signaling its intent to recapture the southern city of Kherson in what has been billed as a major counteroffensive and the moment that Kyiv turns the tide against Russia.

What that push will look like is still a mystery, however. Ukrainian artillery and rockets provided by the U.S. and allies have smashed bridges and Russian ammunition depots close to the city, but the larger movement of infantry has yet to happen. Meanwhile, the Russians are reinforcing and digging in.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/0...erson-00052285

[Dargo]

Clandestine resistance cells are spotting targets, sabotaging rail lines and killing those deemed collaborators as they seek to unnerve Russian forces.

ZAPORIZHZHIA, Ukraine — They sneak down darkened alleys to set explosives. They identify Russian targets for Ukrainian artillery and long-range rockets provided by the United States. They blow up rail lines and assassinate Ukrainian officials they consider collaborators with the Russians.

Slipping back and forth across the front lines, the guerrilla fighters are known in Ukraine as partisans, and in recent weeks they have taken an ever more prominent role in the war, rattling Russian forces by helping deliver humiliating blows in areas they occupy and thought to be safe.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/08/17/w...cy-russia.html

[mapuc]

^ Your comment made me remember a special made documentary for Danish DR1, many years ago.

Danish tv was allowed to follow a special forces operation in UK.
(from memory)
Special forces from Denmark, US and Norway I think was sent to UK to conduct some special operation in this exercise.

They was operating behind the enemies line.

UK sent their Hunters-Here the speaker said-These Hunters are special trained in hunting down special forces from other countries.

With this documentary in memory I wonder
Doesn't Russia have the same ?

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Racists are preparing bloody provocation in occupied Mariupol, - Strategic Committee of AFU

The Armed Forces urge not to trust Russian propaganda.

This was reported by the Center for Strategic Communications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Censor.NET informs.

"On the order of Gauleiter Balytsky, leaflets are distributed to local residents, which describe how to behave in order to escape from HIMARS. Usually, such actions are superficial evidence of the insidious intentions of the occupiers, they say, we warned you.

Against the background of complete failures on all "fronts", rampant "smoking in unspecified places", mass desertion in the USSR, betrayal of commanders and chiefs, the occupier wants to divert attention by carrying out a bloody provocation and blame the Armed Forces of Ukraine", - the message reads.

The Armed Forces urge the civilian population not to trust Russian propaganda. Ukrainian defenders did not and will not fire on the population.

Read more: UN Secretary General Guterr Source: https://censor.net/en/n3361392

[Jimbuna]

Enemy has partial success near Opytne and Novomykhailivka, attempts to attack in other directions have been repulsed, - General Staff

Operational information of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine regarding the Russian invasion as of 6:00 p.m. on August 17, 2022.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to the page of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

"Glory to Ukraine! It has been 175 days of heroic resistance of the Ukrainian nation to the Russian military invasion.

The situation remained unchanged in the Volyn, Polissia, and Siversk directions. On the latter, the enemy is improving the fortification equipment of the positions. Conducted artillery fire near Chernivtsi, Pavlivka, and Hudovo, Sumy region.

In the Kharkiv direction, the enemy, from tanks, barrel and jet artillery, shelled the areas of the settlements of Kharkiv, Nova Mykolaivka, Dementiivka, Korobochkine, Pechenihy, Ruskie Tyshki, Odnorobivka, Lebyazhe, Novye, Svitlychne, Sosnivka, and Rubizhne. The enemy tried to break through the defense of our troops in the direction of the settlements of Lebyazhe and Bazaliivka, but was unsuccessful and retreated.

In the Sloviansk direction, enemy units tried to damage our units and destroy civil infrastructure facilities in the areas of Brazhkivka, Dibrivne, Mazanivka, Dolyna and Dovhenke with the fire of barrel artillery and rocket salvo systems. The enemy tried to advance in the direction of Novodmytrivka and Mazanivka, but had no success and retreated.

In the Kramatorsk direction, in order to dislodge our units from the occupied lines, the enemy fired from tanks and artillery near Mykolaivka, Kramatorsk, Verkhnyokamyansk, Tetyanivka, Serebrianka, Hryhorivka, and Raihorodok. Made an air strike near Ivano-Dariivka and Vesele. He unsuccessfully tried to improve the tactical position in the direction of the settlement of Vesele with assault actions.

In the direction of Bakhmut, shelling was recorded near Bakhmut, Zaytseve, Yakovlivka, Bilohorivka and Mayorsk. The occupiers used aviation to strike near Soledar. Ukrainian soldiers suppressed all attempts by the enemy to improve the tactical position of units in the areas of the settlements of Bilohorivka, Soledar, Bakhmutske, Kodema, Zaitseve and Mayorsk.

In the Avdiivka direction, the enemy continued to fire near Avdiivka, New York, Pisky, Vodyany, Opytny, and Nevelsky. Conducted an airstrike near Mariinka. The enemy has partial success in the direction of Opytne.

In the Novopavlivsk and Zaporizhzhia directions, the occupiers used tanks and artillery of various calibers to fire damage to the areas of the settlements of Velyka Novosilka, Kostiantynivka, Pavlivka, Sontsivka, Olhyne, Vuhledar, Charivne, Huliaipole, Novodanilivka, Mala Tokmachka, Orihiv, Vremivka, Novopillia and Novoandriivka. Airstrikes were recorded near Shcherbaky, Maly Shcherbaky and Zaliznychne. In order to clarify the positions of the fire means and adjust the fire, the occupiers engaged the UAV. The invaders made an unsuccessful attempt to advance in the direction of Shevchenko and have partial success in the direction of Novomykhailivka.

In the South Bug direction, the enemy continues to focus its efforts on maintaining occupied positions and preventing the Defense Forces from creating favorable conditions for a counteroffensive. With the use of available fire means, he is trying to cause maximum losses to our units along the contact line. It does not stop conducting aerial reconnaissance by unmanned aerial vehicles. Carried out airstrikes near Bilohirka, Lozove, Bela Krynytsia, and Posad-Pokrovsky. The enemy tried to improve the tactical position in the direction of Bilohirka. Our soldiers completely broke the plans of the occupiers and pushed them back to their previous positions.

In the water areas of the Black and Azov seas, the enemy's naval group continues to perform tasks to support the actions of the ground group of troops. Two sea-based cruise missile carriers are ready to use high-precision weapons.

The Russian occupiers suffer losses, are demoralized and look for any way to avoid hostilities - they try to fake a light wound, resort to self-mutilation and various simulations. There is an increase in cases of sabotage of officers' orders, especially when it concerns offensive actions.

We believe in the Armed Forces of Ukraine! We will win together!", the information of the General Staff reads. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3361408

[Jimbuna]

After explosions in occupied Crimea, they became interested in bomb shelters, selling apartments and emergency suitcases

In Crimea, after the explosions, people are wondering where the nearest bomb shelter is and what an emergency suitcase is.

This is reported by the website of the Association for the Reintegration of Crimea, reports Censor.NET with reference to Ukrinform.

"Even the completely controlled aggressor "Crimean media" began to ironically report that "the main questions that are now worrying everyone: where is the bomb shelter; how to quickly sell an apartment; what is an emergency suitcase," the message says.

At the same time, it is noted that in occupied Sevastopol, fraudsters are already sending a newsletter to mobile phones with offers to indicate the addresses of bomb shelters that work for a "small fee". Source: https://censor.net/en/n3361416

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

^ Your comment made me remember a special made documentary for Danish DR1, many years ago.

Danish tv was allowed to follow a special forces operation in UK.
(from memory)
Special forces from Denmark, US and Norway I think was sent to UK to conduct some special operation in this exercise.

They was operating behind the enemies line.

UK sent their Hunters-Here the speaker said-These Hunters are special trained in hunting down special forces from other countries.

With this documentary in memory I wonder
Doesn't Russia have the same ?

Markus

Yes, Russia has Special Operations Forces distinct from the Spetsnaz GRU, but I see no results of them behind the lines.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Yes, Russia has Special Operations Forces distinct from the Spetsnaz GRU, but I see no results of them behind the lines.

Since you posted your answer to my comment I have been searching and searching for an article. Seems like I can't find it. Makes me wonder if it's something I have imagine.

Tha basis in the story is that Spetsnaz was no match for the ordinary UA army. They were being hunted down around Kyiv.

The article was posted a week or so after the Invasion began or is it my imagination

Markus

[Skybird]

FOCUS writes:



A few weeks ago, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selenskyj announced a huge counteroffensive in the south of the country. With one million soldiers, the south of the country was to be reconquered and the Russian invaders ousted.
So far, this offensive has not been launched. But time is ticking: Several military experts explain on Twitter why the counterattack must start soon - even if the Ukrainian army is not yet ready for it.

Political pressure could force Ukraine to launch offensive

In a Twitter thread, Australian military expert Mick Ryan explains, "The Ukrainian government is likely under pressure to launch an offensive - before winter to maintain Western support." To Ryan, it's clear that "even if the military isn't ready for an offensive, political reasons could force them to launch anyway."

U.S. expert Dara Massicot adds in an article for " Foreign Affairs ": "Ukraine must use its momentum of counterattacks to prevent Moscow from incorporating the conquered territories into Russia."

After all, if Russia officially annexes the conquered territories, it will give them a strategic advantage - although the West is unlikely to recognize the annexation.

Russia and Ukraine pursue opposing intermediate goals

Massicot's guess: Russia could impose a cease-fire that Ukraine is unlikely to accept. Ukrainian attacks would then probably be declared by Russia as an attack on its own - annexed - territory and threatened with appropriate countermeasures of "self-defense," up to and including nuclear weapons. In the hope that this would dissuade the West from supporting Ukraine.

Therefore, Massicot said, Ukraine and Russia have opposing intermediate goals in the war: Russia is trying to freeze the front lines to buy time for annexation of the conquered territories, while Ukraine is trying to prevent just that.

Mick Ryan: Four points will determine the success of Ukraine's counteroffensive.

According to Mick Ryan, this is the main reason why Selenskyj might feel compelled to launch the announced counteroffensive in the south. According to the Australian military expert, four points are crucial for the course of such a counteroffensive:

1. Operational design of the offensive

First question: what is Ukraine's strategic goal in such a counteroffensive? Ryan sees two possibilities. An objective focused on enemy forces, such as destroying all Russian forces west of the Dnieper River. Or: A geographic objective, such as the capture of specific cities.

Both of these options, according to Ryan, have one thing in common: They are designed to destroy Russian morale and their will to continue the war.

2. The distribution of Ukrainian forces.

Second important point according to Ryan: How will the Ukrainian forces be distributed among the different fronts? For this, he said, a decision is first needed on how many fronts to launch counterattacks at the same time - only then can soldiers, logistical and intelligence capabilities be distributed accordingly.

3. Timing

"In war, the clock is constantly ticking," Ryan writes. The timing of the Ukrainian counteroffensive is paramount to its success, the military expert is certain. The best starting point for the offensive depends on how good Ukrainian reconnaissance is in the relevant areas.

However, Ryan also reiterates, "There are not only military aspects that can determine the start of the offensive, but also political ones.

4. Strategic support

Fourth point according to Ryan: strategic support. This includes weapons supplies for Ukrainian troops - whether from their own industry or from Western countries.

It is unclear when the Ukrainian counteroffensive will start. The only thing that is clear is that the clock is ticking - Ukraine probably cannot afford to wait much longer.

[Skybird]

The above ^ is just one way to look at it. Der Tagesspiegel has a very different, and I think they could be right:






Ukraine and its announced but failed offensive in the south of the country continue to puzzle observers. Russia has now significantly increased its troops in the area. Kiev does not seem particularly concerned about this.

Why? At first glance, the Ukrainians' possible plan to liberate the area around the city of Kherson seems paradoxical: Because the military leadership in Kiev never had a plan to drive the Russians out fighting, but to make their position untenable.

Supporting this scenario are statements by Roman Kostenko, a member of parliament who is fighting in the ranks of the special forces in southern Ukraine. He told the British Guardian (source here), "We don't have enough weapons to launch an offensive now and defeat the enemy. It is just enough to defend our territory." This coincides with assessments by Western experts and statements by Ukrainian politicians and military officials.

Further, he explains, "To liberate Kherson, we don't need to attack Kherson. If we control the bridge, they have no logistics." The background: the Ukrainians have made all three bridges over the Dnipro impassable to heavy traffic. Supply routes for Russian troops are thus permanently disrupted, soon ammunition and food will be scarce, and defense against the Ukrainians will be difficult.

The idea in Kiev may be that the Russians will eventually realize that the area around Kherson is no longer defensible and withdraw. It was similar in the early weeks of the war: when the Russians realized that they could not conquer Kiev while attacking in the Donbass, they withdrew from the north of the country. Moscow will probably be faced with this decision again soon. The advantage for the Ukrainians: they would be spared a potentially loss-making attack on Kherson and thus a house-to-house fight.

Statements by Mykhailo Podolyak, one of President Selenskyj's advisers, go in a similar direction. "Russia has taught everyone that for a counteroffensive, you need large numbers of forces that punch in one direction like a giant fist," he said. A Ukrainian counteroffensive looks very different. We don't use the tactics of the 60s and 70s," explained in an interview with the "Guardian" (source here).

Already last week there were rumors that the regional military leadership of the Russians fled from Kherson to the safer eastern side of the Dnipro River. Will more Russian troops soon follow?

[mapuc]

^ Some of the Danish expert has an another attitude

Danish TV2 Wrote:

More and more evidence that the Russians have fallen into a trap, says expert

Up to 20,000 Russian troops in Kherson could be surrounded by Ukrainians who have hit them on supply lines.

It is looking increasingly like the Russians have walked into a trap in the Kherson region of southern Ukraine.

Already in July, the Ukrainians had stated that they were "certain to retake Kherson by September", and according to the analyst, this now suggests that there has been a purpose in letting the world into the Ukrainian engine room.

- It is a narrative that the Ukrainians have repeated over and over and over again. Normally, such plans would be kept secret, but here it looks like the intention has been to lure as many Russian troops as possible to Kherson, says Anders Puck Nielsen.

From here - with weapons assistance from the West and the much-publicised HIMARS missile systems - it has been possible for the Ukrainians to hit the Russian forces through important infrastructure that ensures Russia the necessary supply in the area.

- It looks more and more like the Russians have fallen into a trap, says the military analyst.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

^ Some of the Danish expert has an another attitude

Danish TV2 Wrote:


Markus

Ukraine has done this before, lure an army in cities where they are slaughtered in street fighting. Rumor is Russian officers have fled Kherson, the aim being to slowly strangle Russian supply lines and cut off thousands of soldiers in the city and area north of the Dnipro River.