US Politics Thread 2016-2020

[Bilge_Rat]

so lets crunch some numbers, there are an estimated 11 million illegal aliens living in the USA (2012 figures).

if 14% voted (probably too high), that is around 1.5 million votes;

if 5 % voted (probably closer to the real figure according to the study, i.e. 6.8% in 2008), that is still over 500K votes;

[Oberon]

Theresa May has indicated that some parts of UK intel sharing with the US could be cut if the Donald goes ahead with his torture plans.

Oh, and the Doomsday clock just got moved 30 seconds forward, so that's fun!

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by MaDef

5 people out of 13,0000 and at that level they are figureheads, really don't think it will effect a whole lot, other than the tone of business

Don'T mistake quantity for quality. Experience is not measured in number of heads.

Quote:

"It’s the single biggest simultaneous departure of institutional memory that anyone can remember, and that’s incredibly difficult to replicate,” said David Wade, who served as State Department chief of staff under Secretary of State John Kerry. “Department expertise in security, management, administrative and consular positions in particular are very difficult to replicate and particularly difficult to find in the private sector.”



Several senior foreign service officers in the State Department’s regional bureaus have also left their posts or resigned since the election. But the emptying of leadership in the management bureaus is more disruptive because those offices need to be led by people who know the department and have experience running its complicated bureaucracies. There’s no easy way to replace that via the private sector, said Wade.

“Diplomatic security, consular affairs, there’s just not a corollary that exists outside the department, and you can least afford a learning curve in these areas where issues can quickly become matters of life and death,” he said. “The muscle memory is critical. These retirements are a big loss. They leave a void. These are very difficult people to replace."

[MaDef]

I think this voter fraud is getting everyone confused. to tell the truth I would not be surprised if in fact there were 2-3 million fraudulent votes. that's 2.1% of the total ballots cast.

This news story implies that there was a "scheme" by the DNC to effect the popular vote. I think the more likely explanation is that since there are 435 voting districts, the local politicos tried to effect the outcome of whatever hot button topic was foremost in some of those districts. and that's where I think you'll find most if not all the voter fraud this election cycle.

[Dowly]

@AVGWarhawk @Bilge_Rat

Perhaps I should clarify my position on this voter fraud thing.

I am not against an investigation, quite the opposite. I am also quite sure that there has been fraud, considering the somewhat messy voting system you guys have. How big, that remains to be seen, and no doubt there will be fraudulent votes on both sides.

What I have been wondering about is Trump's own "3-5 million undocumented immigrants" (I think that's what he said?) voting and thus losing him the popular vote claim, and whether he is willing to give it a rest if the investigation result doesn't support his claim.

If his investigation finds 1 million votes that should not count, great, but that's still 2 million too few to support his repeated claim on why he lost the popular vote.

[Bilge_Rat]

I tracked down how he gets to 3 million or rather 2.8 million. This is the relevant extract from the Richman study:

Taking the least conservative measure e at
least one indicator showed that the respondent voted e
yields an estimate that between 7.9% and 14.7% percent
of non-citizens voted in 2008. Since the adult noncitizen
population of the United States was roughly
19.4 million (CPS, 2011), the number of non-citizen
voters (including both uncertainty based on normally
distributed sampling error, and the various combinations
of verified and reported voting) could range from just
over 38,000 at the very minimum to nearly 2.8 million at
the maximum.

The adjusted estimate of 6.4 percent for 2008 is quite substantial,
and would be associated with 1.2 million noncitizen
votes cast in 2008 if the weighted CCES sample is
fully representative of the non-citizen population

pp. 152-153.

http://www.judicialwatch.org/wp-cont...hman-et-al.pdf

Now the study is far from definitive, as someone who often works with statistics, their method where you take a small sample size and extrapolate to a much larger group can easily lead to a gross over- or under- representation.

The only thing the study really shows is that there probably is an issue, but no one knows how big it is.

[MaDef]

interesting note: that 2.8 million number is the same number of votes that Clinton won with. 2,864,974

[Dowly]

Originally Posted by Bilge_Rat

Now the study is far from definitive, as someone who often works with statistics, their method where you take a small sample size and extrapolate to a much larger group can easily lead to a gross over- or under- representation.

The only thing the study really shows is that there probably is an issue, but no one knows how big it is.

Yep, and it should be investigated, and hopefully changes are made to the voting process that these things would not be possible so easily. Be it ID only voting or something else, I don't know.

The study is from 2008, so that's 8+ years ago, so maybe this investigation sheds some light to today's situation.

[yubba]

Originally Posted by Dowly

Yep, and it should be investigated, and hopefully changes are made to the voting process that these things would not be possible so easily. Be it ID only voting or something else, I don't know.

The study is from 2008, so that's 8+ years ago, so maybe this investigation sheds some light to today's situation.

Wow, look who's in the middle of the road,, some people think it's racist to make people show ID to vote. play frogger much ??? I'm ashamed to say I didn't vote because I'm between homes not having one and not having one so I didn't have a legal address to register I probably voted democrat if it makes you feel better.

[eddie]

One thing interesting about what Trump has said about illegal voting is that a lot of illegal votes came in because people are registered to vote in 2 states. He better check the people that work for him then,lol

"With Kushner, The Washington Post has now identified four Trump family members or top administration appointees who were registered in two states during last fall's election. The others are chief White House strategist Stephen K. Bannon; Tiffany Trump, the president's youngest daughter; and Treasury Secretary nominee Steven Mnuchin, as first reported by CNN."

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politi...pvk?li=BBnb7Kz

Wonder if Trumps personal phone is secure yet. And what is going on with Conway and Bannon using private email accounts through the RNC server?

Trump wants to send in the Feds if Chicago can't get the shootings under control there, what's he going to do in Chicago, declare Martial Law and take away their guns!!!!????!!!!!!!!!!

[Sailor Steve]

Originally Posted by MaDef

I think that may not be true in the near future, The TSA is getting ready to start rejecting ID cards from certain states beginning next year. So expect the idea of a national ID card to be front and center again in the next 5-10 years.

Great.

[Dowly]

Originally Posted by yubba

Wow, look who's in the middle of the road,,

Have I said there is no vote fraud? I think all I have said on the matter is that Trump claims 3-5million frauds and he needs to prove it?

some people think it's racist to make people show ID to vote.

Some people, not me.

play frogger much ???

Not since I had my Commodore 64.

Ps. You do realise I am from Finland, the country, not Finland, MI? I have no horse in this race, just my hunger for the facts, which I try to satiate as best as I can.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by Sailor Steve

Great.

Ihre Papiere bitte.

[Dowly]

Originally Posted by Oberon

Ihre Papiere bitte.

I had so much fun playing that. So much fun. It was great.

[Skybird]

Somebody writes on Twitter: ...................................... Too cowardly?! Me?!?
"Trump is far too cowardly ............................................... I will teach him!
to press the red button!"



source: Der Tagesspiegel