Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Skybird]

These maps show how minor the Ukrainian retakes of territory this year really have been, despite the enormous investments made and Ukrainian losses suffered. I think that puts all the glory and hooray of all these videos back into relation. Mind you, Ukrain had 12 attack brigades in summer, 4r of which equipped by the West. They are more or less depleted. For these minor territorial gains. Ukraine announced it wants to prepare 5 new brigades for next year. Not 12 - only 5. Who should equip these they did not say. This year saw a Russia that held its ground, more or less, there was no operational breakthrough, not even at Robotyne. Next year you can expect their minefields and defences being even better prepared.

Gloomy, gloomy.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682

[Jimbuna]

Almost like a WWI battle map.

[Jimbuna]

[Dargo]

The goal was ambitious (to force a major breakthrough in the south to recapture the land link between Russia and Crimea). Those high expectations were not met, Ukraine liberated some 561 square kilometres of territory spread over three sites along the front since June. But it is too short of the mark to label the counteroffensive a failure; in a number of areas, Ukraine did achieve successes.

Ukraine did manage to inflict a lot of damage on the Russian army, which prevented Russia from launching its own offensives for a long time. While Ukraine did not regain control of the south, it did wipe out Russian control of it. Long-range weapons hit important and symbolic targets, such as the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet in Crimea, that last resulted in a painful retreat of warships from Crimea. Expectations were simply too high, both on the Ukrainian and Western sides. Nevertheless, Ukraine wanted to try. In reality, Ukraine struggled with a lack of well-trained troops and air superiority. Western support also proved to be neither extensive nor rapid enough for the counteroffensive to succeed.

Ukraine has learned that they cannot afford a major operation because it is accompanied by great losses. Therefore, a different tactic will be chosen in the next offensive, they will try to engage the Russians in a war of attrition and attack Russian logistics. On the front, smaller and scattered attacks are expected, as can now be seen at Kherson, where Ukrainian troops are crossing the front river in small groups.

The Ukrainian people continue to wholeheartedly support continuation of the war, there is no pressure yet from society to make a deal with the Russians. You do see war fatigue slowly increasing between the political and military top you do see cracks developing, about strategy and how many losses are acceptable. But such divisions they keep hidden so as not to play into Russia's hands. Moreover, how long Ukraine can fight on depends on Western support. Kyiv therefore seems to be preparing for self-reliance, with the creation of its own military industry. In addition to drones and munitions, Ukraine says it is also developing long-range missiles and anti-aircraft systems.

All in all, it will be a difficult time for Ukraine the country must prepare for a long war, where support is uncertain. Ukraine is trying to seize opportunities on the battlefield so that the idea cannot take hold in the West that the war is unwinnable. At home, the will to fight remains great not because they want to, but because there is no alternative.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dargo

The goal was ambitious (to force a major breakthrough in the south to recapture the land link between Russia and Crimea). Those high expectations were not met, Ukraine liberated some 561 square kilometres of territory spread over three sites along the front since June. But it is too short of the mark to label the counteroffensive a failure; in a number of areas, Ukraine did achieve successes.

Ukraine did manage to inflict a lot of damage on the Russian army, which prevented Russia from launching its own offensives for a long time. While Ukraine did not regain control of the south, it did wipe out Russian control of it. Long-range weapons hit important and symbolic targets, such as the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet in Crimea, that last resulted in a painful retreat of warships from Crimea. Expectations were simply too high, both on the Ukrainian and Western sides. Nevertheless, Ukraine wanted to try. In reality, Ukraine struggled with a lack of well-trained troops and air superiority. Western support also proved to be neither extensive nor rapid enough for the counteroffensive to succeed.

Ukraine has learned that they cannot afford a major operation because it is accompanied by great losses. Therefore, a different tactic will be chosen in the next offensive, they will try to engage the Russians in a war of attrition and attack Russian logistics.

Thats in parts almost a beautifying of the events.


In fact it was Russia launching a successful distracting counteroffensive in the East when Ukraine was marching in the south, forcing Ukriane to move more and more of it southern attack forces to the defence in the East. The point goes to Russia here, the tactical goals weres obvious, and they were achieved: diversion and distraction to stop the ukrainian offensive in its tracks. Ukraine was too weak, obviously, to hold its ground in the east without giving up major ressources for its attack in the south, and so that attack in the south more or less collapsed, in slow motion. The gained territory is strategically irrelevant. Too little gained there. Not even Tokmak was taken, not to mention Melitopol.



Russia can sustain its losses in personnel. That simple.



I do not see that Rusian control of the territory it occupies has been "wiped out", as you called it. Their control is complete enopgh that the population is at their mercy and must accept Russian passports if they want access to ongoing medical case and supply. The control of theRussians is pretty much clear, its just not without meeting reistence to it by partisans.


Attacks of symbolic value rank very low in my book, they do not impress me at all. Symbols are not the things they point at.



Ukraine switches to a war of attrition, you said. Well, thats the sort of warfare that maximises Russian "virtues" and minimizes Russian weaknesses. The supply bas eof Russia is bigger than that of Ukraine - by factors, last but not least especially in human pool size. The economic cost Russia will pay in some years do not matter for the war now, and the war now benefits from Russian wartime-like production and additional huge buyings of ammo and weapons from other allied countries, nymels North Korea, probabyl Iran, also likely: China. Where there is a will, there is a way...
When Ukraine wants to retake the moentum, it must become able again to leave staitronary trench warfare wher eRussia slwoy suzfocates it, and retake the intiave for mobile warfare. Which is increidbly difficult with alcming mobility means and thes eimmenbse minefields, total (drone-based ) transparency of the battlefield, and loiteiurng ammuntiions and artillery suzpport ont he scale we see in Ukraine. I do nto see it happening any time soon. If ever again. The successes in Khercon and Charkiw in 2022, were acchieved by surprises from highly mobile, flexib le attacks. since then, Russia has learned, slwoly, but it has improved, definitely, and the result is clear: Ukraine was not able to repeat that success story this year. Instead it got locked own, bogged down. I see no reason why to assume it will be able next year.



Add clear Russian superiority in terms of ELINT and electronic jamming.



If the West doe snot fundamentally b eef up it support, it is quite clear how this war will go on and "end". F-16s will not change that. More air defence for Ukrainian critical infrastructure also will not change that.



The West niow faces Israel-Hamas crisis, Taiwan, US eleciton, the looming threat of thigns gettign even worse after Biden when Trump launches his vendetta in case he becomes president again, European indifference and lacking material basis for ongoing military support, and dropping public and political support. Russia since summer last year has switched to play a long term strategy. And as things stand now it pays off for them. The West is already running out of breath. I cant say that of Russia.



Massiuve raiuses inb wetsern support are needed, urgently. But I do not see that happening any time soon. Or ever.

[Jimbuna]

The Kremlin has launched a wide-ranging campaign to force Ukrainians in occupied territories to become Russian, an investigation has found.

Ukrainians are being denied healthcare and free movement unless they take up Russian citizenship, evidence suggests.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67427840

[mapuc]

Time is not on Russian side either.
Losing around 1000 soldiers per day and add 2 more years to this. Not to speak about their war materials.

As I see it none of the combatant has the troops and material to end this war within the next two years. Heck they even haven't got enough to lose the war either.

The war will be a modern World War 1.

Except for one thing-The American election If Biden wins the military aid will go up massively If Trump wins well there are those who says he will end this military aid to Ukraine and instead force Ukraine to a ceasefire and/or a peace treaty under Russian terms.
This is only speculation though. He may say one things during his campaign and do otherwise after been elected.

There are different polls
Some indicate that the Average Americans are for or against US military aid to Ukraine.

Markus

[Skybird]

Biden does not rule alone. Senate and Congress have their role, too.

[Dargo]

Elbit Systems to build artillery ammunition factory for mysterious buyer

Israeli-based Elbit Systems Ltd. has announced a significant milestone with the award of a $135 million contract to establish an artillery ammunition factory for an undisclosed international customer. According to the company, the two-year contract reflects Elbit Systems’ extensive expertise in ammunition production and its commitment to enhancing sovereign ammunition production capabilities for governments worldwide.

Elbit says that the company has garnered substantial technical and operational knowledge over the years, in addition to decades of experience in ammunition production, enabling it to build and operate ammunition factories and production lines across multiple sites. Elbit Systems provides comprehensive support throughout the entire product cycle, from initial design and production to ongoing maintenance and after-sales assistance.

Yehuda (Udi) Vered, General Manager of Elbit Systems Land, emphasized the growing demand from governments worldwide for the development of their domestic ammunition production capabilities. This initiative aligns with Elbit Systems’ overarching strategy of fostering international partnerships and supporting its customers by sharing its extensive expertise. The company’s commitment extends to expanding its own manufacturing capabilities and promoting collaborative growth on a global scale. https://defence-blog.com/elbit-syste...terious-buyer/

[Dargo]

A oldie it is not certain if or what Trump will do in case he is in office.

Trump administration reinstates military aid for Ukraine

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Donald Trump's administration has released $250 million in military aid for Ukraine, U.S. senators said on Thursday, after lawmakers from both parties expressed concern that the White House had held up money approved by Congress.

The money is intended for use by Ukraine in its struggle with pro-Russian separatists backed by Moscow. Russia annexed Ukraine's Crimea region in March 2014.

Some Democrats had questioned whether the administration had withheld the money to put pressure on Ukraine's government to support Trump's re-election campaign by launching an investigation into one of Trump's main rivals in the 2020 U.S. election.

Republican and Democratic members of the Senate Appropriations Committee said the White House released the money on Wednesday night, hours before the panel was due to debate an amendment to a defence spending bill that would have prevented Trump from such actions in the future... https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...idUSKCN1VX213/

Trump holds up Ukraine military aid meant to confront Russia

The Trump administration is slow-walking $250 million in military assistance to Ukraine, annoying lawmakers and advocates who argue the funding is critical to keeping Russia at bay.

President Donald Trump asked his national security team to review the funding program, known as the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, in order to ensure the money is being used in the best interest of the United States, a senior administration official told POLITICO on Wednesday.

But the delays come amid questions over Trump’s approach to Russia, after a weekend in which the president repeatedly seemed to downplay Moscow’s military intervention in Ukraine and pushed for Russia to be reinstated into the Group of Seven, an annual gathering of the world’s largest advanced economies. The review is also occurring amid a broader internal debate over whether to halt or cut billions of dollars in foreign aid. https://www.politico.com/story/2019/...russia-1689531

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by mapuc

If Trump wins well there are those who says he will end this military aid to Ukraine and instead force Ukraine to a ceasefire and/or a peace treaty under Russian terms.


This is only speculation though. He may say one things during his campaign and do otherwise after been elected.

There are different polls
Some indicate that the Average Americans are for or against US military aid to Ukraine.

Markus

That sure is a lot of hearsay.

Here’s what Trump said:

"I know Zelenskyy very well, and I know Putin very well, even better. And I had a good relationship, very good with both of them. I would tell Zelenskyy, no more. You got to make a deal. I would tell Putin, if you don't make a deal, we're going to give him a lot. We're going to [give Ukraine] more than they ever got if we have to. I will have the deal done in one day. One day,"

What exactly the deal is, is unknown and I have doubts anything could be accomplished in one day but you never know. I do believe it when said he’d give more to Ukraine than they ever imagined, if Putin doesn’t make a deal. Trump may be the biggest trash talker to some. But ya gotta give him credit, when he became president he set out to fulfill every one of his campaign promises.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

That sure is a lot of hearsay.

Here’s what Trump said:

"I know Zelenskyy very well, and I know Putin very well, even better. And I had a good relationship, very good with both of them. I would tell Zelenskyy, no more. You got to make a deal. I would tell Putin, if you don't make a deal, we're going to give him a lot. We're going to [give Ukraine] more than they ever got if we have to. I will have the deal done in one day. One day,"

What exactly the deal is, is unknown, and I have doubts anything could be accomplished in one day. But I do believe it when said he’d give more to Ukraine than they ever imagined, if Putin doesn’t make this ‘deal. He may be the biggest trash talker to some. But ya gotta give this, when he became president he set out to fulfill every one of his campaign promises.

If Trump can be convinced that supporting Ukraine will result in a bigger profit than supporting Putin, he will go for Ukraine supporting Ukraine will give a huge boost to the US economy and its global security.

[Jeff-Groves]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Some indicate that the Average Americans are for or against US military aid to Ukraine.

Well there you go. I'd say that is 100% even though it makes no sense.

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Biden does not rule alone. Senate and Congress have their role, too.

And if Trump wins the next election (what i doubt) there will be some.. reconsideration.
Of course this would be perfect since HE HIMSELF has said that he will. "... instantly end the war".

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Jeff-Groves

Well there you go. I'd say that is 100% even though it makes no sense.

The correct sentence should have been
There's different polls in the US, in some the American is for helping Ukraine, while other polls show otherwise.

Markus