Hang in there, California: wild fires

[Gerald]

A series of massive fires in northern and central California forced more evacuations.

California is struggling to contain huge wildfires burning forests and homes, warned Governor Gavin Newsom on Friday as more than 12,000 fire-fighters battled blazes that have killed six people.

Help was on its way from several US states as Gov Newsom put in a plea for assistance from Australia and Canada.

"These fires are stretching our resources, our personnel," he said.

Among the 560 fires are some of the largest the state has seen.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53828150

Sad to see...

[Aktungbby]

Originally Posted by Gerald

BIGGER ain't always better: The 747-400 super tanker used in the Pardise and Brazil fires is out of service due to backruptcy issues....just when 'a von Claucsewitzian level 'increase of firepower' is needed to combat the wrath of god. At 20000 gallons per drop, twice the amount of a DC-10, someone needs to get to the boneyard and revamp it. The retardant drops can be fatal to firefighters on the ground though: https://apnews.com/7b72b8c13e454d46ac5489cec4cdbc3c/Firefighter%E2%80%99s-death-caused-by-retardant-drop-from-747

The pilot and a supervisor flying ahead in a small guide plane led the giant modified Boeing 747 nearly into the trees on Aug. 13 because the pilots failed to recognize that there was a hill in the flight path, according to the Green Sheet report by the state’s firefighting agency. (The drops are planned for 300 feet; the hill shortened the altitude to 200'!)
Because of the near ground-level release, the retardant struck with such force it uprooted an 87-foot (27-meter) tree that fell on Matthew Burchett fatally, a 42-year-old battalion chief from Utah helping with the Mendocino Complex Fire north of San Francisco.
Another large tree was snapped by the force of nearly 20,000 gallons (75,700 liters) of liquid and three firefighters were injured, one seriously.

[vienna]

One of the types of aircraft used to fight Southern Calif. wildfire, a 737 Air Tanker:





This is a link to photos of some other aircraft in the SoCal wildfire fighting arsenal:


Photos of firefighting aircraft on the Elizabeth Fire in southern California --

https://fireaviation.com/2020/06/17/...rn-california/


Other craft are sometimes obtained by local county, state, or, even Federal authorities, either borrowed or leased, from outside sources, as needed and if available; in a situation as we're in now, with fires spread over so much of the state and of such severity, the opportunities for added air support are diminished...

In regards to the size vs. effectiveness issue, payload can often be a secondary consideration; depending on terrain and extent of a blaze, size of craft can be a liability; larger craft mean greater speeds in flight at the loss of some maneuverability; in mountainous terrain, much larger craft cannot easily maneuver in close enough for pinpoint drops and, dropping retardant from a necessarily higher altitude cause the drops to often miss their mark; smaller aircraft are also better capable of dealing with surprise currents and drafts caused by changing micro-climates caused by the fires and respond with greater ease and safety; additionally, smaller aircraft are more versatile in accessing water sources: a helicopter can hover over nearby lakes, etc., to draw into their tanks and some other small fixed-wing craft can skim over the surfaces of larger lakes to scoop up water for their tanks, while the very large craft often have to land, be filled, and then take off, costing time in firefighting efforts...

Regardless, of the type or size of craft, the efforts of those who fly and maintain the craft is to be greatly appreciated...




<O>

[Aktungbby]

Originally Posted by Aktungbby

BIGGER ain't always better: The 747-400 super tanker used in the Pardise and Brazil fires is out of service due to backruptcy issues....just when 'a von Claucsewitzian level 'increase of firepower' is needed to combat the wrath of god. At 20000 gallons per drop, twice the amount of a DC-10, someone needs to get to the boneyard and revamp it. The retardant drops can be fatal to firefighters on the ground though:

Originally Posted by vienna

This is a link to photos of some other aircraft in the SoCal wildfire fighting arsenal:


Photos of firefighting aircraft on the Elizabeth Fire in southern California --


In regards to the size vs. effectiveness issue, payload can often be a secondary consideration; depending on terrain and extent of a blaze, size of craft can be a liability; larger craft mean greater speeds in flight at the loss of some maneuverability; in mountainous terrain, much larger craft cannot easily maneuver in close enough for pinpoint drops and, dropping retardant from a necessarily higher altitude cause the drops to often miss their mark; smaller aircraft are also better capable of dealing with surprise currents and drafts caused by changing micro-climates caused by the fires and respond with greater ease and safety; additionally, smaller aircraft are more versatile in accessing water sources: a helicopter can hover over nearby lakes, etc., to draw into their tanks and some other small fixed-wing craft can skim over the surfaces of larger lakes to scoop up water for their tanks, while the very large craft often have to land, be filled, and then take off, costing time in firefighting efforts...

Regardless, of the type or size of craft, the efforts of those who fly and maintain the craft is to be greatly appreciated...




<O>

Argument duly noted, and well considered as usual but it's dangerous work as a fire-helicoptor pilot has already died this week.This is a matter of increase of firepower especially when the volume of fires exceeds last years' already. All fireplanes miss the mark like any bomber but this bad boy is seriously missing from the fight and I saw it first hand in 2017: "von Claucsewitzian" Rule 2: ie always increase firepower if possible; and doing the work of six conventional aircraft - is essentially military 'economy of forces' : literally ten fewer pilots and crews. The 747 is a two plane affair with a spotter aircraft leading the way and releasing smoke at the drop point. Even the DC-10 uses a Cessna Citation spotter

The jet you hear zoom overhead in front of the DC-10 is a Cessna Citation, which is used as a spotting aircraft for the tankers making drop runs. The Citations use smoke to mark the drop spot, or they literally fly the run in front of the tanker in a game of follow the leader.

And even the DC-10 with half the payload of the 747, gets a little too close to ridge terrain for comfort: video #1: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4551/watch-this-epic-retardant-drop-run-by-a-firefighting-dc-10 Note spotter in video #2; complete with puff of smoke!!

[Aktungbby]

Originally Posted by Aktungbby

We have our priorities straight in Napa! and

Originally Posted by Aktungbby

The tally stands at 11,000 lightning strikes in 72 hours; spawning 360 California fires; 23 of which are considered major infernos: resulting in a request for 375 additional engines from out of state, as well as additional hand crews. The LNU Lightning Complex(Napa)conflagration now threatens 1900 homes across five counties. Fortunately the winds have been mild; not like the 50+ mph gales that drove the infernos two years ago. EDIT: One of the crucial factors afflicting the firestorm's overwhelming demands is the massive reduction in trained inmate-fire crews who are, in effect, the backbone of frontline handcrew fire suppression. Of the 190 certified 17 man crews, available in 2018 infernos, only 90 or so are available as this fire season starts. This due to the fire training camp shutdown's and the early release of inmates to reduce serious Covid infections in the CA prison systems.

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/08/exponential-threat-pandemic-wildfires/615574/

Jacob Stern : Two Disasters Are Exponentially Worse Than One

Californians face an impossible choice between virus safety and fire safety.
Eleven thousand lightning strikes, 370 wildfires, a pandemic, a heat wave, and rolling blackouts—California has endured a lot this week. Hundreds of thousands of acres have burned, and tens of thousands of people have had to evacuate. The largest of the blazes—the LNU Lightning Complex fires, which alone span Napa, Sonoma, Solano, and Lake Counties—is only 7 percent contained.
One disaster is bad. Two are worse, but the damage doesn’t just double. This confluence of circumstances can seem like a series of independent misfortunes, when in fact it is a tangle of loose contingencies. A single high-pressure system rolling in from the Southwest initiated the heat wave and the thunderstorms, which together created the conditions for the fires, which will likely both exacerbate and be exacerbated by the pandemic, which has diminished firefighting resources and, along with the heat wave, contributed to the blackouts by keeping people at home with their air-conditioning on full blast.
These overlapping disasters compound. “It’s more than plus one,” says Susan Cutter, a disaster researcher at the University of South Carolina. To her knowledge, no one has quantified this synergy exactly, but “it certainly affects the response, probably in exponential ways.
California is witnessing this exponential relationship firsthand. Smoke now blankets much of the state—on Wednesday, air quality in the Bay Area was the worst in the world—but N95 masks, essential for going outside in such conditions, have proved almost impossible to acquire since COVID-19 emerged. That shortage could in turn worsen the pandemic, since studies have found that breathing polluted air leaves the lungs more vulnerable to the coronavirus. Firefighting forces, which in California rely heavily on inmate labor, have been depleted by both COVID-19 outbreaks in prisons and the early-release policies instituted to prevent them.

“You only have a certain amount of emergency-management capacity in the way of people and equipment and supplies,” says Mark Abkowitz, a civil- and environmental-engineering professor at Vanderbilt University. “If you think of that as a kind of reservoir, and you’re having to draw on it for multiple purposes at the same time, it leads to situations much more difficult in terms of getting the right amount of resources to the locations where they’re needed.”

These dynamics also play out at an individual, psychological level. Mental-health researchers have repeatedly found that a victim’s risk of post-disaster psychological trauma depends in large part on their history of mental-health problems. With each successive trauma, the risk heightens and the burden accumulates. “You can think of coping resources in part as a fixed entity, like a muscle,” says Joe Ruzek, a longtime PTSD researcher at Stanford University and Palo Alto University. “You have a certain amount of energy to deploy,” and at some point the amount required exceeds the amount available. That, at least in theory, is when resilience reaches its limit. For many people—especially health-care workers, COVID-19 patients, and those who have lost loved ones—the past six months have steadily depleted those energy stores. As a result, people may have more trouble than usual coping with the wildfires, which leave deep psychological scars even in ordinary years.
“You’ve got this background level of anxiety due to COVID-19, and then you add wildfires on top of that—that’s going to boost people’s level of distress,” says Steven Taylor, a psychiatry professor at the University of British Columbia, who last year published a book on the psychology of pandemics.

Read: What happens if a “big one” strikes during the pandemic?
What makes the wildfire-pandemic combination uniquely devastating at both a societal and a personal level is that the two disasters demand opposite responses. A pandemic, as Americans have learned, requires people to stay home and practice social distancing. A wildfire, by contrast, requires them to evacuate and congregate. The director of California’s Office of Emergency Services has acknowledged the need for an evacuation plan tailored to the pandemic, and the state’s new rules provide for prepackaged meals, health screenings, and the conversion of hotels, campgrounds, and college dorms into shelters. Still, for most people, following one safety protocol will mean compromising on others. Hence the Californian’s dilemma: Those who flee risk infection; those who stay risk incineration. Something has to give.
Taylor worries about what this will mean for those torn between staying and fleeing. Persuading people to leave behind their home and possessions can be tricky even in ordinary times, he told me. Now imagine someone who has spent the pandemic adhering religiously to social-distancing guidelines. Imagine that she’s immunocompromised. Maybe a loved one has died of COVID-19. It is nighttime when the evacuation order arrives. The wind is blowing, and the fire is advancing, and there is nowhere to go but a shelter.
“That could paralyze some people behaviorally, not knowing what to do,” Taylor said. “It could be very bad for some people.”

Jacob Stern has absolutely committed Plagiarism ie:

Plagiarism is the representation of another author's language, thoughts, ideas, or expressions as one's own original work

OH well... someone reads my posts and expands on the concept I 'spose... but it's still a rip off! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plagiarism

[Jimbuna]

Possibly old news right now but it is being reported that the POTUS has declared the situation as a major disaster and is about to release federal aid.

Why has it taken so long?

[Catfish]

I guess they had to ask Australia for help first

[vienna]

Originally Posted by Aktungbby

Argument duly noted, and well considered as usual but it's dangerous work as a fire-helicoptor pilot has already died this week.This is a matter of increase of firepower especially when the volume of fires exceeds last years' already. All fireplanes miss the mark like any bomber but this bad boy is seriously missing from the fight and I saw it first hand in 2017: "von Claucsewitzian" Rule 2: ie always increase firepower if possible; and doing the work of six conventional aircraft - is essentially military 'economy of forces' : literally ten fewer pilots and crews. The 747 is a two plane affair with a spotter aircraft leading the way and releasing smoke at the drop point. Even the DC-10 uses a Cessna Citation spotter And even the DC-10 with half the payload of the 747, gets a little too close to ridge terrain for comfort: video #1: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/4551/watch-this-epic-retardant-drop-run-by-a-firefighting-dc-10 Note spotter in video #2; complete with puff of smoke!!

That aircraft made an appearance here in SoCal a few years ago, were tested , including some use in actual fire fighting, and the local fire authorities mulled over whether or not to lease/buy one, but the initial runs in the mountainous terrain with deep valley and their updrafts/downdrafts/air-bursts raised concerns about the long-term safety of the craft in use in SoCal; concerns were actually raised about the possibility of such a craft running into trouble, crashing in the woods, and either spreading an already bad fire even more, or if it landed in an area father away, creating a new fire front; I never heard or saw any actual resolution, so my guess the idea was just allowed to peter out...

The lead plane system is also in effect down here and there have been reports of drop runs being aborted when the smaller lead planes ran into strong turbulence caused by the fires and caution called for a wave off of the larger planes; I agree it is usually best to have the most available volume, but it looks like local conditions tend to dictate the prudence of avoiding unacceptable risk...

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Possibly old news right now but it is being reported that the POTUS has declared the situation as a major disaster and is about to release federal aid.

Why has it taken so long?

California is on Trump's naughty list' since we are essentially a heavily Democratic controlled state; it is the home of his nemesis, the Federal 9th Circuit Court of Appeals (who have thwarted a lot of his shenanigans); it is the home state of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (another nemesis); the state has refused to give obeisance to King Donald at all levels; the GOP took a very sound thrashing in 2016 and 2018 in CA (where a county solidly held by the GOP not only voted overwhelmingly for Clinton in 2016, it also voted out all the remaining GOP incumbents/candidates in 2018 in favor of DEMs, the first time had happened since 1936); etc., etc.; it is a long list and DT holds very big grudges; he has tried in the past to withhold or remove Federal funds and/or assistance unless CA gives in to his demands, always losing, either due to court rulings, or the realization by the GOP and his advisors, his actions could have very serious PR implications; just the day before yesterday, CA' Governor, Gavin Newsom, was questioned about the lack of a Federal State of Emergency Declaration from the White House and assured the public communications were open between the State and White House and he had been re assured by persons in the Trump Administration a Declaration was forthcoming and, it has indeed been issued; Gov. Newsom also noted that the very public threats and blustering by Trump quite often are belied by actual actions taken:


Amid raging fires and pandemic, Newsom calls relationship with Trump ‘very effective’ --

https://calmatters.org/politics/2020...ifornia-fires/


I think Newsom has taken a page fom the Putin/Kim playbooks and sussed out that if you pat Trump on the head, give him a cookie, and tell him he's a good boy, he'll happily give you what you need...

Its a pity such games have to be played to get urgently needed aid; hopefully next January will see a marked decrease in such pettiness...






<O>

[Aktungbby]

The Sunday Tally:
194 fire engines; 35 water tenders; 11 helocopters; 13 handcrews(in short supply); 36 bulldozers; total personnell: 1,349... on the LNU fire. Four are known dead; 560 structures destroyed with another 30,500 endangered. The fire is now the second biggest,only surpassed by the Mendocino fire of 2019. Statewide there are 585 over week, most generated by lightning strikes ie: 1,000,000,000 acres or 1562 square miles burned. The Napa fire(s) is currently at 15% containment. The Walbridge fire in neighboring Sonoma county is at 50,000 acres with 0% containment. The ash and smoke from that blaze are hitting my house on the prevailing westerly winds. Cal Fire has designated the NorthBay fires, incl. Santa Cruz, as top priority of the hundreds burning across California. Winds are temperate but more lightning is still expected; standby evacuation orders remain in place.

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Aktungbby

The Sunday Tally:

You just make sure you and yours keep out of harms way.

[Aktungbby]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

You just make sure you and yours keep out of harms way.

Life in Napa: Wear mask for Covid & smoke; drink $2 Buck Chuck chardonnay; remain in 'bugout mode'... 2 cars loaded: insurance docs, catfood, water, clean laundry, cookies for three days, cash... with garage rollupdoor open 24/7 in case of power failure: that boo-boo alone killed four in 2018's Santa Rosa downtown firestorm! It's: 'the new normal' meets 'what a fascinating modern age I live in!'

[Buddahaid]

Weather has cooled and is sprinkling a bit. I can smell the rain and am opening up the house for an air exchange tonight. I can't smell any smoke but the air is likely still not healthy, then again, it feels good and smells good at last.

[Aktungbby]

The Sunday Tally: cooler weather has enabled fire crews to to build more containment lines. Containment is at 41% up from 35g on Friday night. 373,324 acres are burned; 52 structures destroyed; with 340 others damaged. 2800 firefighters are on on the lines after 12 days. The weather is forecast for very warm for the upcoming week: "the climatological peak of fire season!" Skies are overcast and smoke reeks through the house as I post. Dove, wild turkey and deer hunting season is cancelled for remainder of year. Damn!

[Aktungbby]

The Hennesy portion of the LNU fire which has expanded into five counties has destroyed 297 homes and is 74% contained with no expansion. Between the 2018 infernos and this one, the homes destroyed count is right at 1,000-a serious hit to the county a$$e$$or's revenues. Officially, fully 33% of Napa county is charred. The weather, which has been merciful with temperate heat and mild wind, is forecast for the Labor Day weekend at 100-105 F.; bad enough, but no lightning strikes are forecast.

[Aktungbby]

THIS JUST IN: the El Dorado fire, now around 8000 acres in southern California, was started at a 'gender reveal' party by a smoke generating pyrotechnic machine...two days ago! Given the nature of Californian zaniness, a legal "spare the air day" in effect, and any excuse to party- the wrath of God is completely comprehensible in this case.