"The Russian Navy is on the verge of collapse"

[Oberon]

An interesting and eye grabbing title for sure:

https://medium.com/war-is-boring/the...-1421641162548

Some valid points there, it's been readily admitted that the current Russian fleet is in the middle of a dramatic change, from ex-Soviet to modern force, but does that mean that it's on the verge of collapse?

[ikalugin]

Well the valid points are:
- we have a problem with the fact that there were very few ships pre late 00s.
- our industry would find it difficult to build major surface combatants (ie carriers), though we were/are working on this (the new shipwright in the Far East which now faces the lack of orders b/c the northern gas/oil projects are placed on hold due to the current gas/oil prices making them unviable hence they would probably get an order from the state to build warships).
- indeed some components (namely gas turbine engines for ships) were manufactured in Ukraine (though we are working on restarting domestic production), diezel and nuclear powerplants are not affected that way (b/c they are produced domestically).

So while there are some fairly major problems, they are not unsolvable with sufficient funding. Onto the state of Russian Navy though:

The Black Sea Fleet is getting into a good shape. By 2017 we expect to have 7 kilos there (6 new, 1 from refit), 1-3 Frigates (all new), refit Slava class and various legacy ships and smaller vessels (such as the new Small Missile Ships). By 2020 it would be a decent forces with a Cruiser action group (Slava+Frigates) and a sub division.
According to this:
http://flotprom.ru/news/index.php?ELEMENT_ID=169832
article Moscow would receive S400 SAMs and so on during the refit.

The Baltic Fleet (operating in the bath tub it does) has a number of new Corvetes, which should get the job done in that theatre, as in reality those Corvetes are actually small Frigates (strike weapons, medium ranged SAMs, helicopter hangar and so on).

The Northern/Pacific fleets get the Kirovs refits (2 recently refit kirovs plus Peter the Great), Kuznetsov (which would finally get some repairs) and would have the sub component improved (refits to Akulas, Sierras and Oscars).
An interesting points is that it appears (the source is questionable, but still) that the Udaloys would also go through refit, which should give us decent escorts (in addition to Gorshkov class Frigates). The source is:
http://izvestia.ru/news/546972
It claims that Udaloys would receive new gun (the A192), S400 series SAMs, the Kalibr series strike/ASW weapons. An example of such an upgrade (drawn up by enthusiasts, may or may not reflect the real upgrade if it does happen) could be seen here:

It replaces the Kinzhal VLS units with the Redut VLS units (the the 9M96 rounds), replaces the Kinzhal radar sets with the Fort-M radar sets, the second gun is replaced with a VLS for the S400 rounds (48N6DM), the ASW missile launchers are replaced by Kalibr/Yahont ones. The mass limits were not over reached, all equipment items fit the freed space, thus such modification primarily depends on the ability of the defense industry to produce the required items.

[ikalugin]

While those changes do not mean that the Russian Navy would dominate the seas (far from it), they do mean that it would be (most likely) viable in the mid term future.

[Jimbuna]

The sanctions by the west may not be all that effective but medium to long term I should imagine they will have some bearing on matters, especially when added to the reduction in oil revenues.

[ikalugin]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

The sanctions by the west may not be all that effective but medium to long term I should imagine they will have some bearing on matters, especially when added to the reduction in oil revenues.

The decrease in oil revenues do hurt the budget, but not critically so, mainly because we were trying to avoid budget deficit for a long time (and kept building up reserves).

[Jimbuna]

So will Putin slow down the modernisation of the armed forces or let other areas of the economy suffer as a result of spending money Russia doesn't have or could be better spent elsewhere such as on social improvements, healthcare etc?

[ikalugin]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

So will Putin slow down the modernisation of the armed forces or let other areas of the economy suffer as a result of spending money Russia doesn't have or could be better spent elsewhere such as on social improvements, healthcare etc?

I think what would be done is keeping the defence sector at about the same level of funding (in rubles), while providing state reserves (in foreign currency) for any critical items that they would need.

All the while de regulating the rest of the economy and decreasing the state presence there. One way to do this would be partial privatisation of state owned corporations for example.

But to be honest I really don't think that Russia would cut defensive spending by a large margin. That said the actual programs would be shifted right, because the way those programs are funded is only partially in advance pay - the rest is funded by the companies themselves via loans (which are later repayed by the companies when they complete the contact), even though those loans come with government guarantees, the state of our financial system is less than perfect.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

The sanctions by the west may not be all that effective but medium to long term I should imagine they will have some bearing on matters, especially when added to the reduction in oil revenues.

Funny you mention that, about 30 minutes ago they sad on Danish News

"The Sanction is working to well, the EU are afraid that Russia may collapse"

Markus

[ikalugin]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Funny you mention that, about 30 minutes ago they sad on Danish News

"The Sanction is working to well, the EU are afraid that Russia may collapse"

Markus

I would say that it is a bit of wishful thinking on their part.

[Oberon]

It did strike me that the article was a tad...shall we say OTT when it comes to its viewpoint on Russian vessels. The Kuznetsov is not a young man, but I doubt he is ready to 'sink' as it claims that he is.

In regards to the effects on the upgrade program that the current troubles the Russian economy is having will have, I agree with ikalugin, I can't see much of the groundwork being too badly affected, in some instances the employment producing new warships could, in fact, be a bonus and provide much needed work. However, it's a case of infrastructure restructuring from the Pact days where some critical industries were outside of Russia itself, such as in the Ukraine or in the space agencies case, in Kazakhstan. But Russia has got a lot of land, so getting the industries on hand shouldn't be a problem, it's just a matter of time really.

It's a bit like the PRC, despite the 'red scare' that occasionally pops up in the US, the Peoples Liberation Army Navy is in no fit shape to take on the USN, even if their DF-21Ds are as accurate as they claim (which I have my doubts). They need to build up a trifectre of anti-ship weaponry (SSGNs, air launched ASMs and the ASICBMs) so that they can overwhelm the US anti-missile defences, AND have the carriers in order to back up any action they have planned outside of Chinas current borders (aka Taiwan), so we're probably looking at the USN being fairly undisputed naval masters until into the early 2020s.

That's when things will get interesting...hopefully by then Britain might even have a navy too!

[ikalugin]

Kuznetsov does suffer from powerplant problems (which limit the top speed), but those come from the fact that it did not complete even a single repair/docking cycle.

[Oberon]

Originally Posted by ikalugin

Kuznetsov does suffer from powerplant problems (which limit the top speed), but those come from the fact that it did not complete even a single repair/docking cycle.

Exactly, even the best ship is going to have problems if he's not had the right amount of time in dock. Still, hopefully that'll be fixed soon.

[ikalugin]

At least it is not as bad as with the pr.956 destroyers - their power plant is not known to age well, especially if poorly maintained, and this essentially immobilised most of those ships.

On the contrary - pr.1155 ships are fairly reliable and available for missions. Hence probably why there is some speculation about the pr.1155 refit rather than pr.956 refit (having better sonar and helicopter hangar does help).

[ikalugin]

I wish though that Russia had 1 naval theatre instead of 4, this would allow us to have a decent naval grouping in it (2-3 nuclear powered heavy cruisers, carrier, 3 cruisers, 10 destroyers, 8 frigates plus other stuff).

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by ikalugin

I wish though that Russia had 1 naval theatre instead of 4, this would allow us to have a decent naval grouping in it (2-3 nuclear powered heavy cruisers, carrier, 3 cruisers, 10 destroyers, 8 frigates plus other stuff).

Aye, spread too thin....the UK learned that lesson long ago.