Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Skybird]

Military aid is being delivered since some time already, on last Monday and Tuesday at least five air transports with ATGMs and other things from the UK alone, maybe more. Even if the Russian invade, if the West dares to do so it can continue to send air transport that land in the Western half of the country. Or they hand over ground transports at the border, fit hey fear Russian air attacks.

However, Russian fighters engaging Western air transports over the westeren Ukraine would be an escalation that even for the Russians may sound too daring.

Some days ago, the Russian foreing ministry hinted at that the Russians consider military assistance and deployments to Cuba and Venezuela.

Where is a Kennedy when you need one...

The Russian are ahead in the action-reaction game, and they try to make sure it stays that way. Ther eis a chess slang term for that. Players sometimes call it "setting the board ablaze". It means to make things so complex and complicated that the opponent can only react, and more and more insufficiently so, and can never act, and suffers increasing overload. The Russians have the initiative, and I think it will stay that way for long time to come.

We should not complain. Our lack of options, our lack of degrees of freedom, are self-made. Nobody forced us to let things slide this far. We were indifferent too long. The strong have the freedom to do what they want. The weak only can suffer what they must.

[ET2SN]

Originally Posted by mapuc

It depends on how fast the Russian can take the part they want to occupy. IF they take it within a week I don't see NATO have enough time to send military aid to Ukraine.

Markus

NATO already has staging and logistics areas in Romania and (I think?) Moldova. The Black Sea isn't as Russian as it used to be.

[mapuc]

you're right I stand corrected-Forgot about these military aid that already has been sent to Ukraine.

I made a search to see how many and where the Russian has position their soldiers near the Ukrainian border and if there's more than these 100000 men.

Is these 100000 men boots on the ground or is the total number of military men(incl. tankdriver, pilot a.s.o.) ?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...aine-maps.html

Markus

[Skybird]

In my understanding, 100k on Russian grounds near the border, additional troops sent into Belarus again for "manouvers" near the Ukrianian border, plus navy infantry in sea manouvers of their lfeet in the Black Sea. And reinforcements seem to move everyhwere in Western Russia, all westward of course.

When you lean yourself this far out of the window and all world is watching you, you cannot just cancel the showdown anymore without loosing your face. Russia will attack, in any way. They can no longer move back anymore, me thinks.


At home, this is risky for Putin. Western media say the Russian population is absolutely not in a supporting mood for this war. Whether this is truthful reporting of wishful thinking, I cannot say, of course. A war with the Ukraine is not popular in Russian society, that much I am certain of, however.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

In my understanding, 100k on Russian grounds near the border, additional troops sent into Belarus again for "manouvers" near the Ukrianian border, plus navy infantry in sea manouvers of their lfeet in the Black Sea. And reinforcements seem to move everyhwere in Western Russia, all westward of course.

When you lean yourself this far out of the window and all world is watching you, you cannot just cancel the showdown anymore without loosing your face. Russia will attack, in any way. They can no longer move back anymore, me thinks.


At home, this is risky for Putin. Western media say the Russian population is absolutely not in a supporting mood for this war. Whether this is truthful reporting of wishful thinking, I cannot say, of course. A war with the Ukraine is not popular in Russian society, that much I am certain of, however.

For once I hope your wrong-But how interested is Putin in loosing face in front of the world ?

Is Russia like the west/USA ? In USA is it not just important to win the war at the front it is also important to win it on the homefront.

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

For once I hope your wrong-But how interested is Putin in loosing face in front of the world ?

Very. If "loosing face" translates into "looking like a weak coward who does not put his deeds were his mouth is".

Russia wants toi reclaim past "fame, wanst to be seen as equal and on same eye level with the US, although economically and technologically it aint. Despite gas and oil, all that Russia has to throw in is military power. Slamming fists on the table and stomping feet is all that he can do to impress his way to the big round table where Le Grande Jeux is played. And if the US wpul.d not be so distracted by its confrontation with China, not even the military card would play easy.

Russia cannot constructively play the game, it can only spoil the game for the others. But that is enough to ruin it. Russia cannot be great by own constructive strength, so it must in relation become stronger by weakening the others and increasing their existing weaknesses. And thats what Russia does. Strength is relative.

[ET2SN]

Very good points but I still get the feeling a lot of this has to do with that last election in Germany.

All of a sudden that new gas pipeline wasn't looking like a printing press for Rubles so Putin wound up painting himself into a corner.

Which is very ironic. Its now up to Russia to back down in order to avoid a war with NATO. I think Putin was betting that the rest of Europe would ignore Ukraine and would choose to "play nice" with the conquering army.

Instead, NATO told him politely to Stuff It.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by ET2SN

Instead, NATO told him politely to Stuff It.

NATO states' behaviour clearly signals that they will not militarily intervene. To what degree economic threats intimidate Putin remains to be seen. But I know the gas and electricity prices in Germany, and they do not look pleasant.

Meanwhile the US agreed that the three small Baltic states deliver US-made Javelin ATGMs and Stingers SAMs to the Ukraine. Both are desperately needed, the Ukraine is very weak in air defences. Stingers however have a short leg only, but they hurt the Sovjets badly in Afghanistan, and forced them to change operation tactics. Javelins mostly have a range of 2.5 km, some versions demonstrated ranges in excess of 4 km, I do not know how it is with the export version, but Javelins can be used against hovering helicopters as well, a bonus especially for the Ukrainian forces. Against tanks it can also use pop-up attacks to go after the thin roof armour. - In SBP I hate Javelins, but then in SBP players quickly learn to hate ANY type of ATGM.

These three states, being in the focus of Russian threat and attention themselves already, put Germany to shame. I wonder how many they can afford to give away without putting themselves at risk of being undersupplied.

And NZZ reports that the number of air transports sent by the UK earlier this week had a minimum of eight and not just five flights as earlier reported, amongst other goods they brought 1000 Next Generation Light Anti-Tank Weapons, whatever that might be (never heard of that system designation, but the n I know nothing about British equipment expect MBTs and a few of the IFVs, I find it all very confusing with that British stuff on wheels).

[ET2SN]

Originally Posted by Skybird

NATO states' behaviour clearly signals that they will not militarily intervene. To what degree economic threats intimidate Putin remains to be seen. But I know the gas and electricity prices in Germany, and they do not look pleasant.

They don't have to intervene militarily, nor should they want to.

I would ask you to consider how Europe reacted when Iraq invaded Kuwait.
The NATO members were supposed to waffle and dodder along and do nothing, at least that was what Iraq was betting on happening.

France sent forces to the Gulf*. Heck, Japan sent members of the JSDF to the theater in medical and logistical roles (Japan's constitution forbid them from actually fighting). There weren't many "shrinking violets" at the end of the day.

If energy prices have you concerned, welcome to the concept of free trade.
If a deal goes south, negotiate a new one. There are other nations who export oil and natural gas.


*- Just so there's no confusion, I'm not picking on France.
They had valid economic reasons to NOT get involved, which they ignored.

[Skybird]

I do not say NATO has a ballgame in Ukraine, I think it should not get involved, I was just replying to your comment that sounded like NATO threatened military reaction to Russian demands, because after all NATO is meant to be a military alliance - no economic alliance. The political-diplomatic-economic dimension would be reflected on different organisation levels, say the EU, and other international entities. And that political front is in doubt. Now that the Germans for the first time have indicated they might be willing to use NS2 as a sanction object, so far it has just been diplomatic talk between Scholz and Blinken.

Worse, I do not rule out that parts of the Greens and SPD even welcome the stressed gas situation in germany, for they can use it as propaganda ammunition to push for even harder climate policies in the name of becoming faster independent from Russian gas. For the left wings in both parties this suspicion is anything but far fetched, they have thought worse things in the past.

[ET2SN]

Originally Posted by Skybird

I was just replying to your comment that sounded like NATO threatened military reaction to Russian demands, because after all NATO is meant to be a military alliance - no economic alliance. The political-diplomatic-economic dimension would be reflected on different organisation levels, say the EU, and other international entities. And that political front is in doubt. Now that the Germans for the first time have indicated they might be willing to use NS2 as a sanction object, so far it has just been diplomatic talk between Scholz and Blinken.

No, my point is that NATO does not have to react militarily. They just have to show a unified front.

Russia can muddy the waters all it wants and ask never-ending questions about what is reality and what's up for debate.

It doesn't mean squat when the rest of Europe says, "Oh no you don't..".

[Skybird]

Only if Russia does not create facts on the ground.

--------------------------


Nice sliding map at the end of this text:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-60077776

[mapuc]

Another story from RT

The harder Moscow denied it as ‘fake news’, the louder – and more vivid – the allegations became. Things went into overdrive after high-level security talks between Russia and the US appeared to end in failure, with Washington rejecting Moscow’s ‘red lines’ out of hand.

https://www.rt.com/russia/546575-put...-invasion-msm/

Markus

[Skybird]

While the US, the UK, the three small Baltic states and Poland deliver weapons to the Ukraine, Germany has just forbidden Esthnia to deliver artillery pieces from German production.



Peace made in Germany: just wishing war out of the world.

[Reece]

This may go back to ww2 and the Berlin wall days sky, once bitten twice shy!