Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[mapuc]

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Sounds good indeed, however isn't a tad to late ?
If they bad news are true or half true, then the war could be over before the end of this year.
Personally I hope it isn't true at all.

Markus

It is never too late and nobody knows who wins here Ukraine should be gone in 3 days same people not seeing through the fog of war and disinformation ops suddenly see the light of a Russian victory. I have not seen any prediction of the western press that became a fact. Probably, Ukraine will lose territory, but that does not mean they will lose the war. Heard so many times if Russia takes this or that town it will blitzkrieg to Kyiv it never happened, war is too complex to predict the out coming. This doom and gloom is what Putin wants to divide the West I only see him fail the western investment yes even Europe is higher than ever before. The fronts are still holding, the ammo is still going to Ukraine and the will of Ukrainians is still to defeat Russia but no we believe them outside this war keyboard warriors saying Ukraine is lost this is the same believe that Putin is a cute kitten. Even when high-ranking Ukrainian officers say, the military picture is grim, is part of the fog of war.

The Prussian general and military theorist Carl von Clausewitz wrote that war is filled with unpredictability and that “in war more than anywhere else in the world things happen differently to what we had expected." Before its invasion in February 2022, Russia had nearly five times as many military personnel as Ukraine, a defense budget eleven times larger, an economy almost eight times larger, and significantly better military capabilities. Examples of Russian capabilities included advanced fighter aircraft (such as the Su-34 and Su-35), artillery (such as the 2S7 Pion, BM-21 Grad, and 2S4 Tulpan), main battle tanks (such as the T-72 and T-90), nuclear weapons, and one of the world’s most feared offensive cyber capabilities. Yet Russia’s preponderance of power has failed to deliver it swift victory on the battlefield. The limits of material preponderance are true even of wars of attrition. As one study concludes, “the cost of an attrition strategy is always high” and “success is relatively uncertain.” As some analysts have noted, wars of attrition may actually favor the weaker side, including if weaker militaries can find ways to fight more innovatively than their stronger enemies. https://www.csis.org/analysis/ukrain...-war-attrition

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

Drones reshape warfare in Ukraine akin to WWI tanks - WP

Drones are altering the war in Ukraine, much like tanks did during World War I. Unmanned aircraft are effectively paralyzing the skies, reports The Washington Post.

The magazine notes that drones are disrupting the movement of assault groups. The increasing number of small drones on the front has transformed the so-called "gray zone" into a "death zone."

The commander of the strike UAV platoon of the Code 9.2 separate assault brigade named after Hetman Ivan Sirko, Oleksandr Nastenko, told WP that fighters who dare to move at night under the "watch" of enemy drones "die instantly."

According to the military, relatively inexpensive drones have changed modern warfare. Initially, they favored Ukraine, but then Russians began mass-producing their own drones.
"What we’re witnessing right now is blitzkrieg drone warfare," said BRINC Drones chief of staff Andrew Coté.

In his opinion, drones in Ukraine are changing warfare just as tanks did during World War I.

As Ukrainian military personnel recount, there are 100 drones within a 10 km radius on the battlefield. But it's difficult to distinguish whose they are.

Meanwhile, drones are helping Ukraine in conditions of ammunition shortages. Although Ukrainian soldiers express the view that artillery shells are crucial; otherwise, they could lose the war.

Frontline situation

Recall that Russian occupiers intensified attacks on the front in winter. In particular, Russians managed to capture Avdiivka and some neighboring villages. However, Defense Forces are holding positions near Avdiivka, preventing the enemy from advancing further.

Occupiers also seek to advance towards the town of Chasiv Yar in Donetsk Oblast.

Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrskyi, stated that the situation in eastern Ukraine has escalated. According to him, despite significant losses, the adversary is increasing efforts by deploying new units with armored vehicles, occasionally achieving tactical success.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...6063ce74&ei=53

[Dargo]

Russia is sure to lose in Ukraine, reckons a Chinese expert on Russia

Feng Yujun says the war has strained Sino-Russian relations Feng Yujun, one of the China's leading Russianists and a professor at Peking University: Russia is sure to lose in Ukraine – The Economist

Four reasons why Russian Federation will lose to Ukraine, according to Feng Yujun:

• The first is the level of resistance and national unity shown by Ukrainians, which has until now been extraordinary.
• The second is international support for Ukraine, which, though recently falling short of the country’s expectations, remains broad.
• The third factor is the nature of modern warfare, a contest that turns on a combination of industrial might and command, control, communications and intelligence systems. One reason Russia has struggled in this war is that it is yet to recover from the dramatic deindustrialisation it suffered after the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
• The final factor is information. When it comes to decision-making, Vladimir Putin is trapped in an information cocoon, thanks to his having been in power so long. The Russian president and his national-security team lack access to accurate intelligence. The system they operate lacks an efficient mechanism for correcting errors. Their Ukrainian counterparts are more flexible and effective.

His conclusion is as follows:

• Russia will be forced to withdraw from all occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea.
• Russia's nuclear capability is no guarantee of success. Feng Yujun gives the example of the United States, which left Vietnam, Korea, and Afghanistan with no less nuclear potential than the Russian Federation has today.
• Kyiv has proven that Moscow is not invincible, so a ceasefire under the "Korean" scenario is ruled out.
• The war is a turning-point for Russia. It has consigned Putin’s regime to broad international isolation. He has also had to deal with difficult domestic political undercurrents, from the rebellion by the mercenaries of the Wagner Group and other pockets of the military — for instance in Belgorod — to ethnic tensions in several Russian regions and the recent terrorist attack in Moscow. These show that political risk in Russia is very high. Mr Putin may recently have been re-elected, but he faces all kinds of possible black-swan events.
• After the war, Ukraine will have the chance join both the EU and NATO, while Russia will lose its former Soviet republics because they see Putin's aggression there as a threat to their sovereignty and territorial integrity.

According to Feng Yujun, the war, meanwhile, has made Europe wake up to the enormous threat that Russia’s military aggression poses to the continent’s security and the international order, bringing post-cold-war EU-Russia detente to an end. Many European countries have given up their illusions about Mr Putin’s Russia.

Source: https://www.economist.com/by-invitat...pert-on-russia

[mapuc]

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Germany will supply a US-made Patriot air defence system and air defence missiles to Ukraine at a “critical time”, as Kyiv struggles to defend its energy system from Russian bombardment, Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Saturday. Zelenskiy said on the Telegram messaging app that he was grateful to Germany’s chancellor, Olaf Scholz, for the decision to supply an additional Patriot system, and missiles for existing air defence systems. Later in his nightly video address, Zelenskiy indicated talks were under way on expanding the transfer of another air defence system, though German officials did not reference this in their remarks. “We are also working with Germany on an additional Iris-T system, which is also a strong air defence system, and on missiles for our existing air defence systems,” Zelenskiy said in his video address.

[Jimbuna]

Russia's losses in Ukraine as of April 15: 770 troops and 41 artillery systems

Ukrainian Defense Forces have eliminated an additional 770 Russian occupiers within a day, bringing the total casualties of the enemy army personnel since the onset of the wide-scale invasion to about 454,420 soldiers. Additionally, Ukrainian troops have destroyed 6 Russian tanks and 41 artillery systems, according to the morning briefing of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on April 15.

The overall Russian combat losses from February 24, 2022 to April 15, 2024 are estimated as follows:

・Personnel: about 454,420 (+770) individuals.

・Tanks: 7,180 (+6) units.

・APV (Armored personnel vehicles): 13,796 (+31) units.

・Artillery systems: 11,593 (+41) units.

・MLRS (Multiple launch rocket systems): 1,046 units.
・Anti aircraft warfare systems: 758 units.

・Aircraft: 347 units.

・Helicopters: 325 units.

・UAV operational-tactical level: 9,266 (+31) units.

・Cruise missiles: 2,092 (+3) units.

・Warships/boats: 26 units.

・Submarines: 1 unit.

・Vehicles and tankers: 15,510 (+51) units.

・Special equipment: 1,908 (+3) units.

Frontline situation

Earlier reports from the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in today's morning briefing on April 12 indicated that there were 54 combat engagements on the Ukrainian frontlines within the past day.

Military command said that Russian occupiers conducted most of the attacks in the Bakhmut and Novopavlivka directions.

Furthermore, according to the Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Oleksandr Syrskyi, Russian occupiers have been tasked with capturing the town of Chasiv Yar near Bakhmut by May 9, which is intended to facilitate further advancement of the Russian Federation towards the Kramatorsk agglomeration.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...0c01bfff&ei=22

[Jimbuna]

Stark warning to Ukraine’s drone army as Putin plans summer advance

Soviet Su-34 bombers, tanks and even oil refineries deep inside Russia – all is fair game for Ukraine’s army of drones. Outgunned from the start of the invasion – and with artillery rounds held up in the US Congress - Ukraine is having to rely on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Used to track enemy soldiers, guide artillery and even strike targets, now almost every fighting brigade has an assault drone company, while most units own small reconnaissance drones.

So much so that in early February, president Volodymyr Zelensky announced the creation of a separate branch of the Ukrainian Armed Forces devoted to drones. As the momentum on the battlefield is shifting in Russia’s favour, there are fears that Ukraine would not be able to hold up a ground offensive in the northeast this summer.

Dr Jack Watling told Metro.co.uk that Ukraine could not use their UAVs to make up for the shortage in ammunition. ‘Ukraine is actually in a reasonably good place when it comes to its UAV industry domestically and those that are being supplied,’ RUSI’s senior research fellow for land warfare said. ‘There is a mature workstream. We know what UAVs are required – ISR UAVs able to penetrate into operational depth; but not the Ukraine-manufactured Leleka'

‘That class of UAV, and then obviously Ukraine has an ongoing requirement for FPVs, which is exaggerated because of the shortage of artillery.’ He added: ‘The real challenge should be growing the military. It is not a shortage of UAVs, but a shortage of ammunitions. That has to be the priority'

About 18 miles from the border, Kharkiv – the second largest city in Ukraine – has become a primary target for the Kremlin. Zelensky said that this week almost a quarter of it had been destroyed in Russian strikes. He accused the enemy of seeking to reduce Kharkiv – which was home to more than 2 million people before the war – to rubble, clearing the way for its troops to advance. Dr Watling said there are two trajectories of where the war is going, depending on military aid from the US

Addressing where he sees the conflict going in the coming weeks and months, he said: ‘There are two future trajectories of the conflict. One of them is that the Russian offensive is blunted because Ukraine’s army is able to deploy its defences properly and has been supplied with enough ammunition. This would allow them to stop Russians from making significant gains. Ukraine uses the time this buys them to sort out the mobilisation law that was just passed'

‘We help them develop training pipelines, so that they can start generating new units of action.’ Dr Watling said this was the ‘optimistic trajectory’, but a more bleak scenario is on the cards unless the US Congress lifts the embargo on military aid. He warned Ukraine is ‘perilously close’ to running out of ammunition, adding: ‘The pessimistic trajectory is that Russians make significant gains with their offensive'

‘Meanwhile, Ukraine’s allies in Nato start to feel like they can change the timeline, but not the trajectory of the conflict and therefore begin to prioritise rearming themselves. Then there is a significant reduction in international aid, and there is more and more pressure on Ukraine’s armed forces. Russians are able to start working on their own objectives, which is to force capitulation in 2025. So, we have a huge amount of agency in determining which way the war goes. We are running perilously close to putting Ukrainians in a position where they run out of ammunition'
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/cars/news/...c4ca4047&ei=58

[Dargo]

Czech Politicians Say Ukraine Should Get Same Support as Israel After Iran Strike

Ukraine’s situation warrants a coordinated international response similar to that received by Israel in the wake of Iranian drone and missile strikes, some Czech officials who expressed support for Israel said.

Iran attacked Israel with more than 300 drones and missiles on Saturday, but 99% of them were intercepted by Israeli forces backed by allies, official Israeli reports said. According to Israeli officials, the United States, Britain, Jordan and France were involved in defending the country.

The escalation followed Israel’s attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria, resulting in the death of a senior Iranian general.

“Czechia firmly condemns the destabilising behaviour of Iran and its proxies who decided to attack Israel. We reiterate the Israeli right to self-defence. Iran’s long term aggressive behavior is preventing the Middle East region to live in peace and security,” the Foreign Ministry said in reaction to the attack.

However, some Czech politicians believe Ukraine, facing similar attacks from Russia, should receive the same kind of protection.

“The Ayatollah’s overnight attack on Israel was successfully repelled thanks to a swift international response and a willingness to defend airspace. It is a pity that we do not defend the airspace over Ukraine with the same vigour…,” Czech European Affairs Minister Martin Dvořák (STAN) posted on X... https://www.kyivpost.com/post/31109

[mapuc]

Markus

[Skybird]

The latest by Colonel Reisner, optimistic as always.


https://www-berliner--zeitung-de.tra...x_tr_hist=true


Soime key notes:

Russia will have had 5-6 million artillery shells available over the course of this year. Wetsenr production cannot compete.

The trench war is not static or frozen in frontlines, but is a merciless war of the ressources is being fought, its about attrition - and Russia wins it and gains more and more the upper hand in this attrition warfare.

The attack on Charkiv already has begun.

There is a big and ever growing risk for a real massive operational breakthrough by Russia sooner or later.

Ukraine has small successes only on the lowest, the tactical level anymore. Strategically, operationally, logistically, it gets eaten up by Russia.



In an earlier interview a few days ago he pointed out that Ukraine cannot equip its new five brigades with armoured IFVs and APCs anymore. These brigades in principle are only infantry brigades. Means: slow relocation speed with high vulnerabilty against artillery. So they are now running out of APCs, too.



The F-16s arrive too late - as expected. They were needed one year earlier.

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Skybird

The latest by Colonel Reisner, optimistic as always.


https://www-berliner--zeitung-de.tra...x_tr_hist=true


Soime key notes:

Russia will have had 5-6 million artillery shells available over the course of this year. Wetsenr production cannot compete.

The trench war is not static or frozen in frontlines, but is a merciless war of the ressources is being fought, its about attrition - and Russia wins it and gains more and more the upper hand in this attrition warfare.

The attack on Charkiv already has begun.

There is a big and ever growing risk for a real massive operational breakthrough by Russia sooner or later.

Ukraine has small successes only on the lowest, the tactical level anymore. Strategically, operationally, logistically, it gets eaten up by Russia.



In an earlier interview a few days ago he pointed out that Ukraine cannot equip its new five brigades with armoured IFVs and APCs anymore. These brigades in principle are only infantry brigades. Means: slow relocation speed with high vulnerabilty against artillery. So they are now running out of APCs, too.



The F-16s arrive too late - as expected. They were needed one year earlier.

Artillery shells or not, Both sides have gone through barrels with little in the form of replacements. I just don’t see the massive barrages we witnessed at the out set of hostilities ever happening again by either side. This is a battle of meat waves.

https://lookerstudio.google.com/repo...xqnmzwwv0c?s=t

[Jimbuna]

Russia-Ukraine war: Frontline update as of April 16

In Ukraine, there were 104 military clashes on the front line over the past day. Russian forces actively attacked in two directions in the Donetsk region, according to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Enemy attacks

Overall, the enemy launched 16 missiles and 31 aviation strikes, as well as conducted 79 artillery attacks using multiple rocket launchers on the positions of our troops and civilian areas.

During the night, the Russian army once again attacked Ukraine, using 9 Shahed UAVs. All 9 UAVs were destroyed by the Ukrainian air defense forces.

During the past day, the following settlements were subjected to airstrikes:

・Uhroidy, Vozdvyzhenske in the Sumy region;

・Lukyantsi, Volokhivka in the Kharkiv region;
・New York, Berdychi, Semenivka, Krasnohorivka, Urozhaine, Staromaiorske in the Donetsk region;

・Robotyne, Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region.

Over 110 settlements in Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kherson, and Mykolaiv regions were under artillery fire.

Frontline situation

In theVolyn and Polissia directions, the operational situation remains relatively unchanged.

In the Siversk and Slobozhanske directions, the enemy maintains military presence in border areas, conducts sabotage activities to prevent the transfer of our forces to threatening directions, and increases the density of mine-explosive obstacles along the state border.

In the Kupiansk direction, the enemy did not engage in offensive actions.

In the Lyman direction, the Russians attacked the positions of our defenders near Terniv and Torske in the Donetsk region 8 times.

In theBakhmut direction, our soldiers repelled 33 attacks in the areas of the settlements Bilohorivka in the Luhansk region; Verkhniokamianske, Spirne, Novyi, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Andriivka in the Donetsk region.

In the Avdiivka direction, our defenders repelled 15 attacks near the settlements Novobakhmutivka, Berdychi, Semenivka, Umanske, and Pervomaiske in the Donetsk region.

In the Novopavlivka direction, our military continues to hold back the enemy in the areas of the settlements Krasnohorivka, Novomykhailivka, Pobieda, Vodiane, and Urozhaine in the Donetsk region, where the enemy tried 30 times to break through the defense of our troops.

In the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked the positions of our defenders near Staromaiorske in the Donetsk region 7 times; north of Pryiutne and southwest of Bilohiria in the Zaporizhzhia region.

In the Kherson direction, the enemy does not give up its intention to knock our units out of the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River. Thus, during the past day, the enemy made 5 unsuccessful attacks on the positions of our troops.

Enemy losses

During the past day, the Defense Forces' aviation struck 13 personnel concentration areas, 2 anti-aircraft missile systems, and 1 enemy command post.

Rocket troops units inflicted damage on 2 artillery pieces, 4 personnel concentration areas, and 4 enemy UAV command posts.

According to ISW data, Russia is preparing for a major offensive in early summer. If US military aid is not unlocked by then, the enemy's counteroffensive will become a serious problem for the Ukrainian Defense Forces.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are advancing near Donetsk, and the occupiers have made progress near Krasnohorivka and Pobieda.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...7fffeddf&ei=12

[Dargo]

Ukrainian Engineers Design ‘Kronos’ Submarine That Fires Torpedoes

The Kronos submarine seacraft supposedly can move without sound at a speed of 50 kilometres per hour and can carry a payload of explosives. A submarine vessel that is capable of firing torpedo rockets conceptualized by Ukrainians at a United Arab Emirates-registered company has undergone tests for warfare use, the manufacturer announced. On its website, the company, Highland Systems, says the vessel is able “to accommodate 10 passengers.” The Kronos submarine seacraft supposedly can move without sound at a speed of 50 kph (30 mph) per hour, and can carry a payload of explosives. “The submarine features an innovative hull design which significantly reduces fuel. This brings a whole new concept into production of submarines across the world,” the company claims.

According to Oleksandr Kuznetsov, one of the developers, the Kronos submarine boasts a pressure chamber and an underwater outlet for divers. Additionally, it's equipped with a remote control system, making it operable as a drone. Fitted with sonars, radars, communication systems, night vision cameras, 360-degree cameras, and an electronic periscope, the submarine is versatile, capable of tasks like patrolling coastlines, conducting reconnaissance, military evacuations, and even enemy attacks—housing a strike system with six missiles. With an electric motor, Kronos can reach speeds of up to 50 kmh, propelled by underwater “wings.” Its manoeuvrability allows it to evade threats by moving left, right, and rotating around its axis. Constructed with a composite hull and hydrodynamic shape, the submarine operates almost silently, absorbing radar signals, and remaining undetectable even to sonars and echo sounders.

Kuznetsov said that Highland Systems goal is creating an unmanned submarine using modern technologies. Kronos boasts a single-charge operational duration of up to 54 hours and a range of 1000 kilometres (620 miles). It operates autonomously, eliminating the need for a carrier ship. The electric motor is supported by powerful batteries, generators, and a compressor for crew air supply during surfacing. It looks like Highland Systems succeeded in their negotiations with Italian Leonardo company, as the submarine got equipped with six Black Scorpion torpedoes, three on each side of the hull. It is a 127mm torpedo 1.1 meter (3.5 feet) in length and weighing 20 kilograms (45 pounds), and can reach a target 3 kilometres away (2 miles).

The Kronos body is covered with a special composite material that absorbs the sonar signal. The manufacturer of the submarine also provides its characteristics:

• working depth — 100 meters (328 feet)
• Maximum depth — 250 meters (820 feet)
• Maximum time underwater — 54 hours in hybrid mode, 36 hours in battery mode, 18 hours in generator mode
• width — 7.4 meters (24 feet)
• length — 9 meters (30 feet)
• The height is 2.2 meters (7 feet)

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/31207