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Old 08-23-22, 02:29 PM   #226
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I said in the past that Austria will get problem with its eletric power made by river/water powerplants, due to the glaciers dying and thus less water, much less water, in spring.



But where Austria will be, China already seems to be. Due to rivers having dried out and not enough water to run water powerplants, in severla regions they now ration electricty again for factories and production.



And this causes additional interdiction of globla supply chains, rippling through the total global trade and production network.



And the Purchasing Managers' Index for the EU zone has dropped below 50, to 49.2, which means its now "inoffically official": the economy shrinks. Recession is a certainty now, can no longer be doubted, debated about, "prevented".
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Old 08-24-22, 05:23 AM   #227
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In Europe, two thirds of the continent are officially recognized to be heavily effected by drought. The rivers have so low water levels that so-called hunger stones appear:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ast-to-surface

In Germany, farmers fear that next year a quarter less of agricultural foods may be produced. This is not only due to lacking water, but also lacking gas to produce fertilizers, and instructions from the EU Central Committee to exclude extensive farmland from active farming and not to use it for production. This year's production of all grains and crops together is slightly better than last year, but is significantly below the averages of the years before Corona.
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Old 08-24-22, 04:02 PM   #228
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A memo by Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei that was directed at his staff, has been leaked and now is publicly known. In it he voices his assessment that the Chinese economy is in very deep troubles and that there is no hope of improvement (but likelihood for worstening), in the next 3-5 years.

Whether this you see as relevant for the global and our economy and so it belongs into this thread instead of the China thread, depends on whether you see the Chinese economy's influence on the fate of the global and our eocnomy as relevant or not.

Obviously I think its very relevant, and so I placed it here.

All thanks and jubilating to comrade Xi, if you please.

If I were Taiwan, I would not be less nervous now. Launching unneeded wars to distract from one's inner political mess, is an eternal pattern in history.
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Old 08-24-22, 05:42 PM   #229
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You will owe nothing and you will be happy.

Many of my friends seems to have jumped on this WEF-conspiracy train, sadly.

They fear the great reset which should be the prologue to the new world order-Where have I heard this before ?

In this new world order ordinary people will not owe things and they will be happy.

This was a little detour from our (Crazy)economy news

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Old 08-24-22, 06:14 PM   #230
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Originally Posted by mapuc View Post

In this new world order ordinary people will not owe things and they will be happy.
They will be desperate or greedy because the owe nothing and dont know how to make a living for themsleves or their families or their future, and so they will start to smash each other's heads and fall for extremists' promises both political and religously.
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Old 08-25-22, 08:30 AM   #231
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If I were Taiwan, I would not be less nervous now. Launching unneeded wars to distract from one's inner political mess, is an eternal pattern in history.
How so very true
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Old 08-26-22, 04:16 PM   #232
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The EZB has become the cash point of the European Club Med.The Neue Zürcher Zeitung writes:


No sooner have Italy's financing costs risen than the ECB launches a new government bond-buying program, because otherwise monetary policy will allegedly not work properly and interest rates will deviate too much. The argumentation is perfidious because it can be used to justify almost anything. In this way, the ECB is abandoning its mandate of price stability.

The priority of the European Central Bank (ECB) became obvious on June 15: On that hot summer day, the Governing Council convened for an emergency meeting, not even a week after its regular meeting. The yield on Italian government bonds had climbed to 4.2 percent, 2.4 percentage points above its German counterpart - apparently an alarm signal from the ECB's point of view. By contrast, inflation, which is shooting ever higher at almost nine percent, has never been worth an emergency meeting for the central bank, even though inflation in some euro countries has been in double digits for months and recently reached an outrageous 23 percent in Estonia. The development shows the ever-increasing Mediterraneanization of monetary policy.

The ECB has long cared lovingly about favorable financing conditions for the member countries of the monetary union. In recent years, it has purchased a total of around 4.3 trillion euros in government bonds with money newly created out of thin air. At times, the central bank financed the entire net new debt of the member states. At first, this was done to boost the economy and thus the inflation rate, which was considered too low. For a long time, the inflation rate fluctuated between zero and two percent, slightly below the ECB's medium-term target of two percent. It then bought government bonds to support member countries during the Corona pandemic.

Invariably, this had the pleasant side effect for the finance ministers of the euro countries - or was it even the main objective? -that the central bank protected them from market-based interest rates. For some observers, this was tolerable at first because inflation in the euro zone was low. But with inflation rates picking up considerably since the fall of 2021 - well before Russia's invasion of Ukraine - the "monetary guardians" came under pressure. After an agonizingly long hesitation, the ECB's Governing Council ended government bond purchases this summer and held out the prospect of a first key interest rate hike, which has since been implemented.

Rising inflation rates combined with the cessation of government bond purchases and the prospect of rising key interest rates caused interest rates to rise sharply on the capital markets. In Italy, the government crisis surrounding Prime Minister Mario Draghi, the former head of the ECB, further fueled the rise in interest rates, driving up interest rate differentials versus German government bonds. But this time the ECB did not hesitate for long, but announced the preparation of a new government bond purchase program in the crisis meeting mentioned at the beginning. In the meantime, the ECB Governing Council adopted the so-called "Transmission Protection Instrument" (TPI).

It could be activated to counter unwarranted and disorderly market dynamics that posed a serious risk to the transmission of monetary policy throughout the euro area. In this way, the ECB wants to prevent an alleged fragmentation of the euro area, i.e., an excessive dispersion of interest rates. To justify this, the central bank claims that the risk premiums demanded by investors could rise above the level justified by a country's fundamentals.

In doing so, the ladies and gentlemen of money at the ECB's Frankfurt headquarters arrogate to themselves a knowledge they do not and cannot have. The level of interest rates for a country at any given time always depends on countless factors and is ultimately formed on the basis of the swarm intelligence of financial market players. When the ECB raises the question of whether a certain interest rate level is still justified, its answer will always be deeply interest-driven and ultimately political. Once again, the ECB is entering the field of fiscal policy.

"Will Europe's new TPI be an ATM?" asks Willem Buiter in a guest post on the Project Syndicate platform. In it, the former member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee explains why the answer is "yes." Buiter's concerns are shared by many observers in Europe. German economists Volker Wieland, Clemens Fuest and Lars Feld recently described the purchase program as "toxic for the monetary union," and rightly so. For Wieland, the TPI sends the devastating signal that unsound fiscal policy is being rewarded. Such misguided incentives are steering the euro zone increasingly toward a debt union that is held together only by the solidity of a few states. This cannot go on forever.



The disruption of the monetary policy transmission mechanism and the fragmentation of the euro area are at the heart of an argument that is ingenious from the ECB's point of view and at the same time perfidious from the critics' point of view. It allows the ECB, for a supposedly good cause, to level interest rates in the euro area so that monetary policy works better. The term transmission mechanism, however, is extremely malleable. It provides an excuse to be able to do all sorts of things. But from an investor's point of view, there may be good reasons for different interest rates, such as high debt, poor growth prospects, a government crisis, or external shocks like a pandemic or war. Organizing cohesion in Europe in such crises is the job of politicians, not the central bank.

The ECB should also make monetary policy for the entire euro area and not for a single country. Nor does it care about the 23 percent inflation in Estonia. If the monetary impulse in an important country is diminished, for example because there is a government crisis there, as was recently the case in Italy, this should not be used as an excuse to try to pinpoint the country's financing costs. As long as there is only a common monetary policy in the euro zone, but no common fiscal policy, varying interest rates were and are the most normal thing in the world, as are varying inflation rates.

The only sustainably effective bulwark against dangerously high interest rates, a fragmentation of the euro zone and a new sovereign debt crisis are sound public finances combined with growth-friendly economic policies. Here, pressure from the financial markets helps governments to stay on or return to the path of virtue. However, the ECB's anticipatory obedience shields countries from precisely this pressure from the markets. In this way, the central bank turns the level of interest rates into a (monetary) policy issue and itself into the beadle of the member countries.

Moreover, the creation of the TPI would not even have been necessary, because the OMT program (Outright Monetary Transactions), which was adopted in 2012 under Mario Draghi and has since been legally secured, provides an instrument to help countries in financial distress. However, states wishing to benefit from the OMT must submit to strict conditions. The most important prerequisite for using the OMT is that the country in question already benefits from a European bailout and meets the relevant conditions.

Draghi, who was as celebrated as he was controversial, once attached great importance to this conditionality. He described it as a fundamental element in ensuring the ECB's monetary independence and minimizing misguided incentives that lead to an even more lax fiscal policy. Now, by contrast, the ECB has set only waxy criteria for the use of the TPI. For example, the member state government must comply with the EU's fiscal framework, and the country must not have serious macroeconomic imbalances.

The TPI is ultimately the Rolls Royce among government bond purchase programs: unlimited purchase volume, unlimited purchase duration and equal treatment of all claims (pari passu). Compared to OMT, it offers better financial support with much lower conditionality. This makes it clear which program highly indebted sovereigns may want to and will use. Its initialization shows that the ECB is under considerable fiscal dominance of "Club Med," i.e., the highly indebted member countries on the Mediterranean. At the same time, this fiscal dominance will increase as a result of the TPI, as debt will continue to rise and it will create new desires.

A good twenty years after the introduction of the euro, the majority in the Governing Council of the ECB has managed to make the central bank increasingly abandon its mandate of price stability and instead concern itself with the cohesion of the euro area as it is constituted today. In this way, the ECB is increasingly undermining the meaning and wording of the European treaties, which postulate and promise financial and price stability. The announcement of the "Transmission Protection Instrument" is another milestone in the ECB's subjugation to the "Club Med" and its financing needs.

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Old 08-27-22, 05:08 PM   #233
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I could have posted it in our Climate change thread-I felt however that it had more to do with economy.

Quote:
COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Given the country’s overriding importance to the global economy, potential water-driven disruptions beginning in China would rapidly reverberate through food, energy, and materials markets around the world and create economic and political turbulence for years to come.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china...is#author-info

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Old 09-02-22, 01:57 PM   #234
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The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung goes California:
-----------------
California residents are being told not to charge their electric cars at certain times of the day over the next few days. The urgent request comes from CAISO, the administrator of California's largest power grid. It fears extensive power outages because a heat wave has hit the state. This is causing many citizens to turn up their air conditioners to protect themselves from the heat.

Temperatures are expected to reach around 40 degrees in all parts of the country. Electricity demand will be highest between 4 and 9 p.m. During these hours, Californians are urged to conserve electricity by not turning on air conditioners until temperatures are above 26 degrees, not turning on dryers, washing machines and dishwashers, and not charging electric cars.

Just days ago, the state banned the sale of new cars with internal combustion engines from 2035, while enacting a timeline for reducing conventional cars. From 2026, one-third of new cars must be electric, then two-thirds in 2030. Currently, 16 percent of new cars sold are e-cars, and their market share of California's 30 million car fleet is 2 percent.

The call to reduce charging of e-cars during delicate periods of consumption shines a spotlight on the huge demand for electricity that California must additionally satisfy with the electrification of its auto fleet. The California State Energy Commission sees a need for an additional 5 gigawatts by 2030, assuming that the number of electric cars will then be 7.5 million instead of 600,000 now. If the entire fleet is to run on electricity, an additional 20 gigawatts would be needed. This is equivalent to 15 to 20 additional nuclear power plants, 40 average coal-fired power plants or thousands of wind turbines. Electricity demand is likely to increase even further because California is asking its citizens to give up gas and oil heating and electrify their homes.

Governor Gavin Newsom and the House of Representatives have taken a small step toward relieving the strained situation by now allowing the state's last nuclear power plant, which was facing closure, to continue running. Currently, to avoid a collapse of the power grid, grid operator CAISO has resuscitated particularly polluting power plants, including one in Oakland that burns jet fuel to generate electricity. The operators were ordered to keep the plant running now through the end of the year. Four years ago, the operators had agreed to shut down the power plant after years of protests by environmental groups that had criticized the plant's air pollution and climate damage.

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Old 09-03-22, 05:09 PM   #235
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We have to totally rethink the way we use our money/stock

Because as it is now we are heading towards a huge economical explosion/implosion

Our way of living has to change too-We are on a very destructive course.

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Old 09-04-22, 01:17 PM   #236
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Old 09-04-22, 01:19 PM   #237
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Germany has announced a €65bn (£56.2bn) package of measures to ease the threat of rising energy costs, as Europe struggles with scarce supplies after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The package, much bigger than two previous ones, will include one-off payments to the most vulnerable and tax breaks to energy-intensive businesses.

Energy prices have soared since the February invasion, and Europe is trying to wean itself off Russian energy.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62788447
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Old 09-04-22, 03:35 PM   #238
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Insane: not specific enough the Germna package is, and I cannot help but think that mostly it is about appeasing the masses to delay the fury on the streets.



The radical left and the radical right both are united in calling for protests and mass demonstrations.



Its also unclear how to pay for all that. The follow-on effect of however they do it, is clear, I think: killing the buying power of the Euro even further, and thus pushing inflation up.



Germany will soon see two digit inflation, now that 9 Euro tickets and fuel rabates are gone. An end of the escalation is not in sight. I expect that Putin just waits for the right time to drive home a real devastating strike against Europe. And that will be in times of maximum need and dependency - in winter.


Expect the worst yet to come. Prepare as best as you can. Hope is for fools.
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Old 09-05-22, 06:53 PM   #239
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Are we witnessing the advent of Central Bank Digital Currency? It’s the devil baby

https://www.federalreserve.gov/payme...dnow_about.htm

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FedNow℠ Service

The FedNow Service will be available to depository institutions in the United States and will enable individuals and businesses to send instant payments through their depository institution accounts. The service is intended to be a flexible, neutral platform that supports a broad variety of instant payments. At the most fundamental level, the service will provide interbank clearing and settlement that enables funds to be transferred from the account of a sender to the account of a receiver in near real-time and at any time, any day of the year. Depository institutions and their service providers will be able to build on this fundamental capability to offer value-added services to their customers.

The FedNow Service will be designed to maintain uninterrupted 24x7x365 processing with security features to support payment integrity and data security. The service will have a 24-hour business day each day of the week, including weekends and holidays. End-of-day balances will be reported on Federal Reserve accounting records for each participating depository institution on each FedNow Service business day. Access to intraday credit will be provided to participants in the FedNow Service during its business day under the same terms and conditions as for other Federal Reserve services.

The FedNow Service will provide a liquidity management tool to support instant payment services. The tool will enable participants in the FedNow Service to transfer funds to one another to support liquidity needs related to payment activity in the FedNow Service. The tool will also support participants in a private-sector instant payment service backed by a joint account at a Reserve Bank by enabling transfers between the master accounts of participants and a joint account.

The first release of the FedNow Service will also include optional features: fraud prevention tools, the ability to join initially as a receive-only participant, request for payment capability, and tools to support participants in their handling of payment inquiries. The FedNow Service will be released in phases and additional features and service enhancements will be introduced over time. Other aspects of the service, such as fee structures and governing terms, will be announced prior to the launch of the service.

The target release date for the service is May to July 2023. As development of the FedNow Service progresses, additional details will be available through established Reserve Bank channels, including more specific timing, and implementation information for depository institutions.

More information on the service can be found here. https://www.frbservices.org/financial-services/fednow
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Old 09-06-22, 02:57 AM   #240
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Many of my friends seems to have jumped on this WEF-conspiracy train, sadly.


Markus

I wish the WEF was just a stupid conspiricy theory, but its not. Everything they want to achieve is clearly publicized on their own website, they are not some secretive organisation lurking in the shaddows, Klaus and co are very forth coming and transparent about how they want to change/influence the world and how they will go about it.
What they propose sounds like an absolute nightmare to me. bascially a modern version of the days of Kings and peasents, (with no accountablility for the former and no way up for the latter)
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