Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Skybird]

Comparing to how the exclusion of Iran from SWIFT has damaged their eocnomy very hurtfully, the question is what damage it would to to Russia, and at what costs to US-European "ties". Russia, China and some other former Sovjet republics have formed an altemative system to SWIFT, but it is nowehre near to beign able to replace it.

The costs for Europe would be tremednous if agreeing with the Americna threat (Russia would stirke back via gas), and would be tremendous if confrinting the US, which would result in all out eocnomic war between Europe and the US, and could unleash a financial meltdown. In other words, Europe once again has drawn the azz card. Selber schuld.The dilemma is home-made.


USA split and divided. The UK busy with Johnson - The Soap Opera. France before elections. Germany a left coaltion and weak and Russophile in parts. Europe in gas price frenzy.



Sounds like a good oppoetunity for Russia to provoke something. Almost a sin it would be to let it go by unused.

[Onkel Neal]

Wasn't the Ukraine part of Russia prior to WWI?

The US needs to stay out of this.

[Skybird]

Yes, Russian claim is not just actual geopolitics, but historic identity as well.

Yes, the US must stay out militarily anyway, and I am not certain on how far sanctions can do anything and should even be tried. I dont know. So far, sanctions have made Russia stronger, not weaker, because it learned to adapt by becoming even more independent in food production. It also has dumped its dollar reserves, and still buys gold like crazy.

And Europe? Is deeply divided and has no meaningful options anyway. As so often. And they wonder why Russia wants them to be excluded in talks. Not enoguh weight, that is the simple answer.

The US agreed to deliver another 200 millions worth of small firearms like assault rifles and ammunition. What would be needed, imo at least, are SAM shoulderpads and Panzerfaust-style and Milan-style ATGMs. These could make an invasion very costly.

Germany offered medikits, blankets, and words of good will. It still tries to block Europe from delivering any weapons at all.

I see the Ukraine as a still corrupt oligarchic regime, and in this regard as a failed state, so to speak. They are bogged down since - sinc ehow long now? Long beofre the Crimean invasion, certainly. We may see moral arguments there. But we cannot have real practical reasons to get involved too deeply. Military intervention is completely out of the question. Assistance for boosting their self-defence, equipment, weapons, okay. But our focus must be in the Baltic, and maybe on the Balkans. Here is where we really must set red lines and even be willing confront Russia in the air, on the ground, on the sea.


And Europe must - non-militarily - confront China in Europe, too. So it has its hands full and its homeworks set out even without the Ukraine conflict already.

[mapuc]

Read something interesting in a Danish article-It was about the weather...in Eastern Ukraine and the temp. for the next 4-6 days is frost. 5 to 20 degree below zero. Thereafter the temp. will rise above zero.

So what make this interesting.

Now when the temp is below zero the ground is hard and can carry heavy tanks and other heavy vehicle.

The week thereafter with temp above zero the soil will be muddy.

I guess if Putin are planning on invading it will come between Monday and Wednesday.

It could also come in the spring-I doubt it. Keeping soldiers at high alert cost.
And as Skybird said a few times-Putin will not withdraw his troops again.

(I could be wrong-I truly hope I'am)

Markus

[Catfish]

The threat of a nuclear strike would probably be a stopper for Russia.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Catfish

The threat of a nuclear strike would probably be a stopper for Russia.

Which country would threaten Russia with nukes if they start to invade Ukraine ?
I say the west would rather see Ukraine being invaded than engage Russia on the battlefield. Yes NATO may give some kind of assistance to Ukraine-But it will not be boots on the ground or air born support.

Markus

[Catfish]

^ Then which 'support' is this?
NATO should rather agree that Ukraine does not become a NATO member, than to let it be invaded by Russia.
In which (latter) case NATO already said it will do nothing. What kind of answer is this?
A nuclear strike is of course unrealistic, but imho it would be the only answer that works for a free Ukraine not to be invaded by Russia.
And if NATO lets this happen you can guess which country will be next.

[mapuc]

^ Personally I say that Ukraine shall not become a member of NATO.
It can cooperate with NATO like Sweden and Finland does.

If you could read Swedish then you would read stuff like

Huge caravan of tanks and other vehicle on it's way to Nynäshamn to be transported to Gotland.

Sweden think Gotland would be next.

Here is what it is written on Swedish telefax

"Increased military presence on Gotland
The Armed Forces is strengthening its presence on Gotland. This was confirmed for SVT on Saturday.
We will be in the places where we are needed most, says Therese Fagerstedt, Swedish Armed Forces
press secretary, to SVT News
The increased efforts are part of the "contingency adjustment" that is underway due to the security policy situation. Several military transports arrived on Gotland on Friday and
Saturday. Other coastal stretches in the country have also strengthened, according to DN.

Hultqvist: Attacks can not be ruled out

On the night before Saturday, soldiers and military vehicles arrived on Gotland.
Minister of Defense Peter Hultqvist (S) tells SR: s Ekot that there are also reinforcements in the rest of the country.

-It is important to show that we are not naive. Sweden will not be taken to bed if anything happens. It is
important to mark and send signals that we take this situation seriously.
When asked by Ekot if there is a real risk of an attack on Gotland, Hultqvist answers:
-It is clear that there is a risk. An attack on
Sweden can not be excluded.
"

Markus

[blackswan40]

The E.U. and Nato missed the bus on this one they should have made the Ukrine a full member of E.U. and Nato and the west would'nt be in the situation we are in now.


After Mr Putin invades the Ukrine would that be the end of is march westwards and he has no more teritorial claims that sounds rater familiar don't it just.
Then Russian forces invade the Baltic States Estonia Lithuania Latvia and also Finland like the Russians did in 1940.


Would there be a military responce from Nato other than diplomatic hot air language.
Then Putin Pushes is luck some more pushes into Poland as far as Brest Litvosk like when the Germans and the Russians met in September 1939 when between them they carved up Poland or Russia takes all of Poland
with no responce from Nato due to no political will France Germany dither then Putin demands East Germany back.

is it a European problem Uncle Sam needs to keep out of this one is that flawed thinking but what if the Krazy Ivan then wants Alaska Back if you dont agree to my demands I Mr Putin will put hyper sonic misiles in Cuba what then that would be a fox in the hen coup for sure.


If war comes the British will be writing war songs with whoops bumpsadaisy and tickertyboo in the corus for sure

[Skybird]

The West "missed the bus" much earlier, that was when thinking that history had come to an end (Fukuyama) after the cold war was "won" and one thought one could afford to ignore the Russians and one crept NATO eastward after giving them verbal reassurances and promises that exactly this would not be done if they would play ball and agree to a neutral buffering zone build by former Sovjet vasalls. That was one of their preconditions to play ball, and American and Western diplomats verbally reassured them that this would be honoured. when The Bsaltic sttaes and Poland asked for emmberhsip, they could ask, but the Wets had any right there is not only to say yes, but also to say No. And the latter was what maybe we should have done as long as the Russians honoured their part of this "gentlemen's agreement". Instead, we cheated therm. This betrayal, as the Russians - imo rightfully - see this, was not just a geopolitical weakening of Russia (which was known and wanted in Washington), and a loss of face and reputationb and thus a nice opportunity to take "revenge" for whatever, but also a big narcissistic offence, an injuring of their selfunderstanding that really hurt their ego. And it was completely unneeded. Russia was down for quiet some years, it was weak. We should have swallowed our laughter and feelings of triumph, but step back and leave them the time to get their acts together without us abuzsing their wekaness. There was an opportunity to not only sow some seeds, but also maybe seeing them blossoming, who knows, but Western capitols decided that it was not enough, they wanted more. I remidn of that in the years when Pution had took over form drunken Yeltzin, his politics towards Europe were VERY differently, and in the West he was celebrated as a new Alexander who sought to close ranks with Europe. After his speech - in German, if I recall correctly, in the Bundestag, hearts flew to him. And I think he meant serious what he offered. At leats he had the hpe that it could work. And then came the big Russian desillusionizing.

And here we are where we are today. Comepletly innocent in how things came, we are not. We certainly did your foul share, too.


Nevertheless, today we have no other chance anymore than to learn to play tough again.


We expected the Russians to endlessly be stupid and to endlessly act to their disadvantage. We thought Russian interests get lab-designed by Western philantropists and ideologoists and capitalistic predators, and that democracy would be a beacon that all world, also the islamic world, wants inevitably to follow. We were full of and we were drunk of ourselves, and we had made the idea that somebody does not want to share the shine of our glory, unimaginable. Iraq 2003 was a result of this overconfidence. Its beyond our comprehesion that maybe others do not share our self-definition of that we are the greatets, the finest, and the most admired ones. What many others indeed want, and only want fromus, is money. Our ideas they often wish we would keep for ourselves. That is especially true in the Islamic world.

That is no one-sided excusing of Russia that I want to do here. I just try to be realistic, and try to see things from their side, and try to see Wetsern self-defionition a bit more sober, and realistic. We do not define what Russia's interests were, and are, and we often define these Russian interests according to our selfinterests. And this, until today, is the biggest mistake we ever made with Russia. It hinders Europeans until today to realise what now angry and willing-to-fight beast they are now dealing with. Russia defines its interests all by itself, and it does not ask us for our approval. Its strong and autark enough not to need to.

There never was a realistic chance to bring the Ukraine into the EU or NATO. I say since many years that back in the past and now in the present, the starting of such an association process would inevitably bring the Russian into attack mode, they would and they will start a war before this process could ever be completed. That the Ukraine becomnes a NAOT member was unacceptable for them already back then, for reasons of strategy, identity, cult and culture, and history. Its like Russian missiles on Cuba - the US would never have accepted that. You want Russia to invade the Ukraine in full, now or back then? Starting to bring it into NATO is the 100% fail safe method to get what you want.

[mapuc]

@ blackswan40

An interesting approach in how the development would proceed.

I don't think he will touch NATO member.

After he has invaded Ukraine I'm pretty sure he will aim at Gotland-Controlling this island and you control the Baltic sea. Finland will then be next.

Could also be the other way around-Finland 2nd then Gotland.

Or he is just interested in Ukraine and nothing more.

Markus

[Skybird]

Even ruthless Russia's military capacities are not unlimited, even if facing the Europeans only, without the US. Lets not make them bigger than they are. They are big, but not THAT big. They can do what they now threaten to do.



To attack North and Middle and South Europe itself, that then again is another ball game, even with NATO now being the weakest ever. The huge Sowjet tank armies like in the cold war, are a thing of the past now, like huge numbers on Western sides are. What they can and would do is hybrid and cyber warfare instead. to throw Europeans off their feet and keep them busy with things in their own households. That way, they cnanot get into Russia'S way where Russia really aims at: the three small Baltic states, the Black Sea region, Balkans in parts, maybe, Ukraine.



I doubt that even in the cold war the Sovjets ever seriously planned to conquer central and Western Europe.

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by blackswan40

The E.U. and Nato missed the bus on this one they should have made the Ukrine a full member of E.U. and Nato and the west would'nt be in the situation we are in now.


After Mr Putin invades the Ukrine would that be the end of is march westwards and he has no more teritorial claims that sounds rater familiar don't it just.
Then Russian forces invade the Baltic States Estonia Lithuania Latvia and also Finland like the Russians did in 1940.


Would there be a military responce from Nato other than diplomatic hot air language.
Then Putin Pushes is luck some more pushes into Poland as far as Brest Litvosk like when the Germans and the Russians met in September 1939 when between them they carved up Poland or Russia takes all of Poland
with no responce from Nato due to no political will France Germany dither then Putin demands East Germany back.

is it a European problem Uncle Sam needs to keep out of this one is that flawed thinking but what if the Krazy Ivan then wants Alaska Back if you dont agree to my demands I Mr Putin will put hyper sonic misiles in Cuba what then that would be a fox in the hen coup for sure.


If war comes the British will be writing war songs with whoops bumpsadaisy and tickertyboo in the corus for sure

The Ukraine in NATO? No way, it is a violent corrupt system of government thanks to the people running it. Not only that right now The Ukraine can’t control what happens within its own borders it has no territorial integrity. If it were allowed to join NATO the situation would quickly escalate as NATO be then be obligated to defend that crap hole militarily and quickly dragged into a protracted guerrilla/civil war. Screw that.

[Aktungbby]

What interest me is that American news souces are intimating a Russian 'false flag' attack to justify the invasion of Ukraine as justifiable

Russia is plotting to stage acts of provocation to create a pretext to invade Ukraine, a US official has said.
A Pentagon spokesman said Russian operatives were planning a "false-flag" operation, to allow Moscow to accuse Ukraine of preparing an attack. Russia has dismissed the claims.
It comes after a week of US-Russian talks aimed at defusing tensions.
Ukraine on Friday accused Russia of being behind a cyber-attack on dozens of official websites.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59998988 This is right out of the Nazi playbook in 1939's Operation Himmler https://coffeeordie.com/operation-himmler/

On Aug. 31, the day prior to the declaration, American newspapers reported Polish insurgents and army troops clashed with the German police at the Gleiwitz radio station along the Polish-German border. The reporters arrived in the aftermath to witness a scene showing several dead corpses wearing Polish uniforms.
“The German News Agency reports the attack came at about 8pm this evening when the Poles forced their way into the studio and began broadcasting a statement in Polish,” the BBC Broadcast in London issued in a statement. “Within a quarter of an hour, say reports, the Poles were overpowered by German police who opened fire on them.” However, the attack was not carried out by willing Polish participants. It was part of a series of false-flag attacks that the Germans staged against themselves during a clever deception dubbed “Operation Himmler.” Nazi High Command used several “border incidents” to create the appearance of Polish aggression to justify Hitler’s invasion into Poland, sparking the beginning of World War II.
“I will provide a propagandistic casus belli,” Hitler told his generals on Aug. 22, 1939. “Its credibility doesn’t matter. The victor will not be asked whether he told the truth.”
Two separate raids occurred near the German village of Hochlinden and at a forestry office in Pitschen. Six prisoners were taken from the Sachsenhausen Concentration Camp, dressed in Polish military uniforms, and executed. The sophisticated and well-choreographed propaganda wing then spread the lies to the press. The Nazi High Command took the lessons they learned from previous border incidents and applied them to their most famous black propaganda raid in what became known as the Gleiwitz incident.

Nuthin new here; Putin just wants his Iron Curtain 'baby blanket' back no IMHO 'bout it

Originally Posted by Onkel Neal

Wasn't the Ukraine part of Russia prior to WWI?

The US needs to stay out of this.

Indeed; American cleanup of Europeaan WWI issues incl. 'Nam, China, Afghanistan, which all arise out of the collapsed Russian, British, and French 19th century empires, needs to be avoided. Russia is currently threatening to place retaliatory military assets in Venzuela ie: the Cuban missle crisis all over again. Were I the President, step one following the invasion of Ukraine would be to pull my ambassador from Moscow, declare all Russian diplomats non-grata and go to DEF-CON 2 ie: sabre-rattling on a grand scale; the only lingo Moscow comprehends...

[mapuc]

Within the next week we will know, if Russia will invade or not.

Markus