Russian Politics Thread

[Onkel Neal]

Originally Posted by Mr Quatro

First I have heard of the Druzhina

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...?ocid=BingNews



Let me know when it gets this bad

Hah, I was in Moscow when that happened. I can't say any more.

[ikalugin]

Originally Posted by Onkel Neal

Hah, I was in Moscow when that happened. I can't say any more.

To that end there is a great lecture by Pozner which discusses how the west created Putin. You can see it here:



In general you could see that in part the foundations for the current environment in Russia were formed by that constitutional crisis which lead to Russia having a super-presidential republic and the 1996 elections where massive fraud was funded by privitising state property on the cheap in favour of key oligarhs such as Berezovsky who later would seek refuge in London.


But hey, Yeltsin was a good guy, wasn't he?
So undermining the young Russian democracy to support him must have been totally worth it.

Originally Posted by Onkel Neal

Navalny, victim of Putin's agents using nerve poison, returns to Russia, he's arrested. His wife arrested. His brother arrested. Over a thousand people demanding democracy in Russia, arrested. Subways and buses stations closed, restaurants and bars closed.

How long until the security forces under Putin's order get tired of attacking their friends and neighbors?


Mass arrests in Russia of protesters demanding Navalny's release

Technically Navalny is not under arrest, he is being held under guard untill the court hearing on his breach of parole (I think?). As to the protestors they were charged with violating COVID-19 related restrictions on public gatherings.


But hey, lets support an authoritarian ethno nationalist who entered the politics by working the smear jobs as part of the intrasystem competition. And who embezles donations for legal representation of protestors (who he incited to protest outside of agreed upon time and place and thus created conditions for their arrest and the need to gather donations for their legal representation) to go on nice holidays.


What could possibly go wrong?



As to the security forces - this is unlikely, the security forces believe that they have a shared destiny with the elites and the Berkut purge after second Maidan did not help that. Same reason why Belorussian operatives are doing what they are doing. In general the scale of protest movement is fairly small, if only because it is winter time right now, so not a real threat right now.

[Catfish]

While the rest (like intervention or holding back by the west shortly after 1990) may have some truth in it, the following has not – or rather is echoing official Putin talk.
(I do not know any internal secrets of Putin, all i know he is a somehow dependable man towards other nations, governing with an iron fist hidden in a velvet glove, sometimes forgiving in personal matters or in things that interest him, well trained as a spy knowing all those special methods to guarantee obedience and how to set the machine of mutual distrust within the government and externally to work. Maybe this is the man Russia needs, but then i think this is the usual convenient justification for the same old methods going on in Russia forever, or at least back to the Tsars. Ex chancellor Schroeder likes him, but then he also said Putin was a flawless democrat. Ahem.)

"Technically Navalny is not under arrest, he is being held under guard untill the court hearing on his breach of parole (I think?). As to the protestors they were charged with violating COVID-19 related restrictions on public gatherings."
Technically? I'd say practically and really Navalny is under arrest, whatever you try to call it.
So they said Navalny should come back, otherwise he would be arrested the next time he set foot on russian ground. So he officially returns, and is being arrested. Not even a fake court decision, right into prison.
A later court hearing on his "breach of parole", sure. Does anyone really believe this, even in Russia? What exactly does Putin or the FSB say about the poisoning attempt? Should not THEY be before court for attempted murder?

The protestors charged and arrested because of "violating Covid 19 restrictions". Easy, then by any civilian standard they can get a fine and immediately be released.

Whatever the rulers say about Navalny, anyone else says that he always speaks the truth. This is why they support him. This is what everybody says. Sans the apparatchiks and trolls of course.
Poisoning Navalny somehow did not work out, so he has to be reduced to an "authoritarian nationalist" (), trying to become a political leader himself (oops some things do not fit), and his reputation has to be destroyed, so everyone forgets about him?
Hint: Won't happen.

[ikalugin]

There is a legal difference between administrative arrest (punitative measure) arrest, being set under guard, etc Hence the term "technically".


My personal view is that while Navalny's arrest would be entirely justified by his violation of parole terms (and other reasons, ie embezlement I mentioned above) the execution by the powers that be was poor. Say giving him court summons or setting him under guard from home instead of the circus that happened at the airport would have been better ways to do it.


To the protestors - those COVID-19 related restrictions, when introduced, had punitative measures written in, including criminal charges and prison time depending on severity. Sure they could be waved for such protests but the state is not making the exception there, same (I seem to recall?) as say the Swedes for the same protests.


As to the poisining attempt - I have my own personal opinion here and I would love to see the Germans sharing their data with the Russian investigation, the British lady that was on scene being questioned, as a poisoning of a Russian citizen on the Russian soil should be properly investigated and the ones responsible held to account.
Yet somehow all (non-lethal) cases of Novichok use are UK connected.
But hey, a consistent demonisation narrative is simpler.


To Navalny's views - I have been following his career since his live journal days, this (ethno nationalism) was what gave him entry into the 2012 protests and thus into the larger scale political career. They were since then dialled down (as he is not as radical as his wife), but the authoritarianism/populism ("I would place them into jail" instead of "I would see due process play out") and the ethno-nationalism roots are not particularly controversial.
Try searching for "Narod", "Russian March" and other such movements, you would see his participation there.


More recently though (right before the incident) there was a shift away from patriarcho-authoritarian populism, driven by the results of focus group studies and the Belorussian political technologies experience.


But hey, it is easier to find a "good guy" and support him, despite him being, ehem, a flawed character. But I would rather see Russian people make their own choices, instead of being victims of foreign (and I would be charitable to say that it could be well intended) interference.


p.s. implying that some of is a troll or otherwise acts in bad faith in response to said person holding different opinions is a poor way to conduct a debate.

[Catfish]

p.s. implying that some of is a troll or otherwise acts in bad faith in response to said person holding different opinions is a poor way to conduct a debate.

I apologize .. hoping you are not a troll.

For Navalny, i am sure that for Putin he is an "enemy of the state", or better someone challenging his position. So Putin is of course trying all to pull Navalny's public esteem down so that the population changes its mind about him, thus eliminating him and his influence without killing (or only later).
Navalny has been arrested several times by Russian authorities, usually for what he attacks others for: corruption. They want to make him untrustworthy, and in your case it seems to have worked. Or.. the other explanation.
Navalny received two suspended sentences for embezzlement as you said, but it is quite sure that they were politically motivated and intended to bar him from running in future elections.

Regarding the attempted poisoning, it is not so that Russia has not quite a record of these.. "techniques". And i remember this telephone call.

[ikalugin]

Navalny is viewed as a traitor I would expect, not as an enemy. But this is going into speculations into the state of the mind for Putin and other actors.

About charges - political motivation doesn’t mean that Navalny did not participate in such activities, only that the law is selectively applied.

Is that bad? Sure.
Does this mean that Navalny is innocent and worthy of support by a classical liberal such I? Not really.

Hence why I get tired of such people get white washed and sanctified. In the end Navalny is not going to be better for Russia, but then I can’t say who will be and I am against revolutions in all forms and for a steady, peaceful, evolution and development.

As to poisonings - yes, this is an established narrative and, ironically, people who actually died to Novichoks (like 1990s bankers) are not a part of it. Ironic, plus the British proximity to all of the cases in it.

The phone call (same as the bellingcat report) was an element of political theatre amplified by media.

I wish there was a better response to this, but historically we have been bad at this, for example back in the Korean airliner times Soviets did not respond to US publishing a doctored voice comms tape despite knowing its nature.

[Catfish]

ok.
Who do you think would be better for Russia than Navalny, or Putin?

[August]

Originally Posted by ikalugin

I wish there was a better response to this, but historically we have been bad at this, for example back in the Korean airliner times Soviets did not respond to US publishing a doctored voice comms tape despite knowing its nature.

Is that the time your Air Force brutally murdered an entire jumbo jet full of civilians then tried to weasel out of responsibility for it?

[ikalugin]

Originally Posted by Catfish

ok.
Who do you think would be better for Russia than Navalny, or Putin?

At the moment my preferred option is gradual transition post 2024 to a third person. Who that person would be is not yet clear.

[ikalugin]

Originally Posted by August

Is that the time your Air Force brutally murdered an entire jumbo jet full of civilians then tried to weasel out of responsibility for it?

I am familiar with the US narrative, yes., but hey, who cares about the greater context and say the US Aegis crew few years later did nothing wrong .

[August]

Originally Posted by ikalugin

I am familiar with the US narrative, yes., but hey, who cares about the greater context and say the US Aegis crew few years later did nothing wrong .

Yeah I'm quite aware of using deflection as a tactic for diverting attention from ones own crimes.

However, even if the two incidents were comparable, which they really aren't, that has absolutely nothing to do with your country knowingly destroying a civilian airliner. That stands on it's very own.

FWIW in the Vincennes incident our gunners incorrectly identified and reacted to what they believed was an imminent threat, whereas your pilots knew what they were shooting at and did it anyways because their government was as paranoid as a Democrat member of congress standing next to a Republican with a suspicious bulge on their hip.

[Skybird]

The formal claims about Nawalny and the reason for his re-arrest, are just this: formal. If it wpould not be these reaosns, than some othe rreaosns woukd have been found. Of course he is the arch enemy of Putin and Putin tries to get rid of the problem in any way necessary. Thats why the police is so ultra-brutal against the demonstrators: fix the danger while it still is small.

The US is not in a moral position to morally lecture Russia for that. And the EU is in an indifferent position anyway, being ridiculous in any attempt to moralise. Both he American and European moral credibility are corrupted, for different reasons. The US acted in similiar ways regarding Assange: giving formal foul excuses for persecuting him, constructing a sexual offence case where there most likely is none, and never has been, the whole story has always stunko rotten form beginning on, th Swedish women starting it beign dubious at best. Formalities gave the operation to lock down and get hand on Assange an apparent legal, justified claim. But it never was that, it was about getting him into American arrest, and about revenge, and turning him into an intimidating example to scare others following him.

Putin is not Mr Kind Guy, nor will he ever win a price for fairness and sportsmanship, he does what he sees necessary to secure his power. His recent calculations however maybe are not as sdharpo and precise anymore as they once have been. He overstepped the limit with his hjabit to notoriously poison critics and unwanted people. He overestuimated his cards, maybe.

Maybe he becomes another old man who misses the right point in his life to leave it all behind, and live unknown, but safe until a natural death. Or he does what he does becasue that is the only way to become old and one day die a natural death, I dont know. But he is turning old.

And I think that mid and late Putin is a result of Western politics on Russia 20, 25 years ago, yes. Putin was always KGB, but once held a more Europe-oriented, positive, constructive attitude towards the West. I recall the times when even in Washington some saw in him someone like a new Peter the Great, and her ein Germany anyway. That time did not last for long, however. Its just that he saw the West, namely the US and NATO, betraying Russia, and I agree with that Russian perception. He also had to keep the organised crime and the oligarchs in check that under Yeltzin really where about taking over the state completely.

There is a tendency in the West to overlook faults and dark spots in the biographies of people opposing the Russian state and Putin. True for some oligarchs in the past Putin cracked down on, whom always were seen as innocent victims only with their shady sides being ignored, and I red rumours at least about Nawalny not being that harmless a guy, too, but a radical nationalist. He would not be the first saint coming to power and then revealing himself as a demon instead.

I do not defend Putin, nor his ways, I simply try to cold-bloodedly explain his actions by the needs he faces, and the motive of his to save himself and to protect - an autocratic, Putinesque - Russia. It makes no sense to want to define Russia'S interests from a Western view. One needs to look at it from a Russian view, only then you can see the predictability in it, and only then you can form a realistic policy towards it. Neither naive optimism nor demonising nihilism helps in this.

I think however that Putin sooner or later enters his end game now. He does not become younger. But who wants to predict who comes after him? And whether that somebody will be better or worse - and from what perspective? Western priority must be the stability of the state, and the safety of the nuclear and biological weapons, and the prevention of another nuclear scientists drain like after the collapse of the USSR. These and nothign else are the West'S essential interests. Evertyhign else beyond that is sentimental and luxurious, is bonus. Maybe not from the Russian people's perspective. But from ours. Leave Russia to the Russians - as long as it is not at our cost. Especially the EU is well-advised with that motto. It has demonstrated its impotence quite often now in the recent decade and imminent present. it must not bite off once again more than it can chew and make a joke of itself. Always trying to lift more than one can bear only ruins the intervertebral discs.

P.S. There is somethign about Navalny that has me being on my guard against him. I do not trust him more than I would trust Putin. Not at all, that is. He does not show the West all that he is, I have the feeling.
__________________

[Rockstar]

A bit of news and opinion who Navalny is.
https://thegrayzone.com/2021/01/28/a...sition-figure/

KK: Despite his 15-year-old crusade against Putin, his government, and corruption, Navalny is still mostly recognized only for his investigative work. Even though trust in him grew in the wake of the poisoning, the number of people distrusting him has also grown along with awareness. Overall, in the last poll about the number of people trusting significant political figures taken in August 2020, he scored two per cent, in third place after Vladimir Putin’s comfortable 40 per cent and Vladimir Zhirinovsky’s four per cent. However, some politicians who trailed behind him belong to parties in the Russian Duma that enjoy way more support as whole entities, including the CPRF and LDPR.
RK: Why is this happening now?
KK: His support in Russia has been greatly exaggerated by the Western press. The Navalny supporters, who are not as numerous, have been galvanized by the attempt on his life and his arrest...

Then the idea that liberty, freedom, democracy in Russia is in jeopardy. Well I just don't see it if sites like OVDInfo is still allowed. This site kinda reminds me of the U.S. based Democracy Now and Amnesty International all wrapped into one.

https://ovdinfo.org/

[ikalugin]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

A bit of news and opinion who Navalny is.
https://thegrayzone.com/2021/01/28/a...sition-figure/
Then the idea that liberty, freedom, democracy in Russia is in jeopardy. Well I just don't see it if sites like OVDInfo is still allowed. This site kinda reminds me of the U.S. based Democracy Now and Amnesty International all wrapped into one.

https://ovdinfo.org/

Russia is a strange country where one of the platforms for the opposition (Echo of Moscow radio station) is owned by Gazprom subsidiery - Gazprom media.


But if you think of it in terms of a pseudo-feudal system it can make sense, a vassal of your vassal is not you vassal, thus people couple of ranks below can be doing harmful things to people couple of ranks above.

This is how some hackers with FSB backing where hacking Medvedev's accounts and making him look bad, despite their handlers being under him in the chain of command so to speak.

Originally Posted by August

Yeah I'm quite aware of using deflection as a tactic for diverting attention from ones own crimes.

However, even if the two incidents were comparable, which they really aren't, that has absolutely nothing to do with your country knowingly destroying a civilian airliner. That stands on it's very own.

FWIW in the Vincennes incident our gunners incorrectly identified and reacted to what they believed was an imminent threat, whereas your pilots knew what they were shooting at and did it anyways because their government was as paranoid as a Democrat member of congress standing next to a Republican with a suspicious bulge on their hip.

Thanks to sticking to the standard US narrative, which is both false in claiming that the pilot knew it was the airliner and in setting one rule set for US and the other for USSR (the rules for thee, not the rules for me aka American exceptionalism).



The Korean airliner shot down happened against a background of a maximum pressure campaign by US, which used civilian airliners as cover both literally (by flying in close proximity to) and figuratively (by adopting the signature of) airliners.
This resulted in the air defence crews, which were being exhausted-out but those practice, making the error.

[Onkel Neal]

Alexei Navalny, leading Putin critic, sentenced to nearly 3 years in jail
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/a...ested-n1256440

As screwed up as Russia's political system is, the US is just as screwed up, maybe worse, just in a whole different way.