Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[mapuc]

Markus

[Skybird]

I said I think there is a chance for a Russian operational breakthrough building up. And now, 6 hours ago, Colonel Reisner too starts to speak of the increasing chance of Russia acchieving a "major breakthrough".
What he also says is that the ATCAMS attacks done so far, four if I counted right, did not leave a lasting impression on the Russians. As was to be feared. A few scattered attacks here and there do not make much of a difference, I think you need enough ammo to fire them in volleys and several attacks every day, day for day, over weeks. The Ukrainians obviously do not have enough ATACMS for that. So its headline-creating pinpoint attacks and on targets that are beyond reach of a Ukrainian push on the ground. Which makes them tactically useless so far.
I am thinking longterm here, the ukrainians obviously are in a strictly defesnive position now, and get eaten up, see their ressources in material and men being badly mauled every day, so they use what they are being given for defending themselves by trying to hit the veins and sinews of the Russian pressure wave on the ground: command centres, air force, missiles, and logistics. But by allowing to get locked in this effort, they get mauled up even more. If they do not gain the initiative again (with what...?) they must and will lose. Themerciless law of attritional warfare. The counters go back to zero. Who reaches zero first, looses.



This all slowly turns into a real hopeless fight, I think. No degrees of freedom seem to to be left for the Ukrainian command at the front. If you have both arms engaged to merely hold the roof over your head, you have no more hands free for fighting.

https://www-n--tv-de.translate.goog/...en&_x_tr_hl=de

Scheiße. This could turn into the first decisive turning point of the war since autumn 2022.

To close this gap will cost the Ukrainians many more precious reserves, and I dont bet money that they will be successful in this attempt.

A few days ago, military economist Marcus Keupp told the Kölnische Rundschau newspaper that Russia had lost the war strategically. By the fall of 2023 at the latest, it was clear that the Russians' production rate would not be able to keep up with the attrition rate. How do you see that?


It's not my place to comment on others. However, I would like to warn against hoping for a turnaround in the war, which we haven't seen yet. We have to take the situation seriously and prepare for the worst-case scenario. German Defense Minister Pistorius recently pointed out that Russia is obviously producing more material than it needs for the war. What is the purpose of this overproduction? Are they already preparing for the next war? If you don't consider such possibilities, the surprise can be nasty. We can't say we didn't know.

[Rockstar]

I’m not so sure what we see happening could be considered a breakthrough. Penetration of certain defensive positions? Yes. But a breakthrough is when those defensive lines are penetrated then rapidly exploited. I would hardly consider slogging 1/2 a click per day as a breakthrough. I would think too the toll on Russia manpower would be extremely heavy to get as far as they have. As one Ukrainian General put it, it’s not about holding cities and monuments, it’s about killing Russian soldiers.

[Skybird]

I did not say this is a big breakthrough, I said two or three days ago that there is a big danger of this leading to an operational breakthrough, and Reisner now says its a break into the second and third defense lines which are not as well prepared as the - by now disappeared - first line they had build since 2014, and which were meant for delay only. Reisner also said this could turn into as he called it a major breakthrough. But the Russians have penetrated 2nd and 3rd lines, and are widening and deepening the breach.

Ukraine obviously finds it extremely difficult to scratch together any reserves able to fill the gap and seal it, while the Russians work on it.

The Russian pressure will increase further, due to symbol-heavy May 9th festivities.


Reisner said the situaiton is so depseratwe that the ATACMS attrackiugnCirmea were little help - the firepower must be focussed on sealing the breach now. If they fail, this could be the beginning of the end and lead to the collapse of the whole front int hat district. Hence my fear of what I phrase as "operational breakthrough". If the Russian succeed with this breach, then it gets a real big thing.


In the past two weeks Russia penetrated defences in that sector up to 20km deep, I read. They clean their path with their damn glide bombs. And there can be no doubt that the Ukrainians also take heavy casualties. Its just not as prominently reported in our news.

[em2nought]

Originally Posted by August

That is pretty condescending considering that the Ukrainians are bleeding and dying in real life for lack of ammo to fight their invaders. Maybe you think this is all some grift but they are the ones shedding blood here, not us.

Have you ever read anything about the American delegation to the French court of Louis the XVI during our revolution? Talk about whiny. Our pleas for assistance were far more numerous, extensive and desperate than anything coming from the Ukrainians.

Zelensky is no George Washington. I guess if he was they'd be tearing down his statue at Columbia.

I'm thinking lots of grift, but I'm more worried about Sleepy Joe managing to get us into WW3. I bet he even has the same pajamas.

[Reece]

Those pajamas have a nice sheen to them!

[August]

Originally Posted by em2nought

Zelensky is no George Washington. I guess if he was they'd be tearing down his statue at Columbia.

I'm thinking lots of grift, but I'm more worried about Sleepy Joe managing to get us into WW3. I bet he even has the same pajamas.

No he's not but at this point in the American revolution not too many people thought all that much of George either having just lost a major part of his army while getting his butt kicked out of Long Island and Manhattan by the British.

[ET2SN]

Here's another deep dive from the Naval War College. Keep in mind this presentation is from 18 months ago, which brings up its own point- not much is changing.

[Jimbuna]

'Our victory is inevitable!': Moscow exhibition showcases Western tanks captured from Ukraine

Russian state TV aired footage on Sunday (28 April) showcasing preparations for an upcoming open-air exhibition of Western equipment captured in Ukraine.

The month-long exhibition, scheduled to open in Moscow today (1 May), will feature 30 armoured vehicles, captured from various countries, including the United States. the UK, Germany, France, Sweden, Australia, and South Africa.

Described as a celebration of Russia’s success “against Ukrainian militants and their Western supporters,” the video depicted heavy trucks transporting multi-ton vehicles and cranes lifting them into position in Victory Park on Poklonnaya Hill, Moscow's designated venue for the display.

Signs at the exhibition read: “Our victory is inevitable!”

Among the showcased vehicles was a Leopard tank, which reportedly encountered an anti-tank mine during a battle near Berdychi in Ukraine, resulting in damage to its right track.

Russian state TV channel RU-RTR also shared footage of an Abrams tank still awaiting delivery to Moscow for the exhibition. According to the broadcaster, this tank was hit by an anti-tank missile crew from the Center group of forces under Berdychi.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...fff3701b&ei=44

[mapuc]

Markus

[Skybird]

Next two months may be decisive.


https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/01/e...ntl/index.html

[mapuc]

How well they have performed the Ukrainian throughout Spring and Summer can be judged in the Autumn.

Markus

[mapuc]

Markus

[Rockstar]

Posts made 1 May from a u.s. based honey pot. Where many of the anti-western/ukraine arsehats hang out.



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https://t.me/intelslava/58686

���� There are fierce battles for Chasov Yar. The enemy understands all the dire consequences of the loss of this fortified area and has directed all his forces to its defense.
Our units, in turn, literally gnaw out one forest belt after another as they approach the city. Taking the Chasov yar will allow you to gain strategic heights and allow you to seize the initiative in the battle for Donbass.

The fighting is very difficult. The losses on both sides are significant.

https://t.me/remylind21/20013

���� Epic Destruction of Baba Yaga by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the skies over Georgievka.

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https://t.me/Novichok_Rossiya_2/5866

����After visiting different parts of Ukraine over the past few weeks, here is a brief summary of my observations and assessments.
As I know people love to make their own conclusions based on whatever sources they have, these are my opinions based on visual observations and discussions with various individuals from a specific time and place, I am not Nostradamus, I am not predicting what will happen by a specific time, I am telling you what I see and experience here and now.

1: As long as Ukraine has weapons they will fight AND there will be enough men to fight.

2: The will to fight varies depending where you are in Ukraine, there are still die hards who will sacrifice themselves.

3: Especially in the West of Ukraine, nationalism burns like a fire.

4: The vast majority of Ukrainians absolutely hate Russia and Russians.

5: The contrasts are huge, there is a separate life where people go to fancy restaurants, do family trips and live as if there’s no war.

6: Zelensky still enjoys broad support.

I will deal with the details of my beliefs and assumptions at a later time.

��Masno

https://t.me/Novichok_Rossiya_2/5867

Before anyone asks if Ukraine has men why aren't they able to mobilize them It's simply because they lack enough equipment to army and train every guy. Training and equipping 500,000 men with pistols, machine guns, aks, grenades etc. is a huge task on its own. But even if they get equipment, I personally doubt they can train all of them for an adequate amount of time
https://t.me/Novichok_Rossiya_2/5868

By the way, despite whatever claims there may be or whatever a specific photo or video might show, the reality is that there are only 11000 cases of people dodging mobilisation and being wanted in Ukraine. The vast majority of people called up to fight, fight.
Of course many pay bribes to leave the country, but let me assure you, millions of men remain.

* More than 11 thousand cases against evaders have been opened in Ukraine since 2022, reports the office of the Ukrainian Prosecutor General.

in 2022, 2,431 cases were opened, most of all in Transcarpathia and the Dnipropetrovsk region.

And in 2023 there will already be 6,745 cases. The leaders are again Transcarpathia and Dnepropetrovsk regions, to which Nikolaev region has been added.

The amount of bribes for leaving Ukraine has now increased to $17,000 per person."

��Masno

https://t.me/Novichok_Rossiya_2/5880

Masno's observation from seeing Ukraine's defensive lines up close
According to him, the dragon teeth's are so short that even a high off road vehicle would get over it. Aside from that, digging up of various defence lines continues, many will likely be completed in a few months

https://t.me/Novichok_Rossiya_2/5852

As Ukraine builds it's defensive lines in Kharkov, Russia doesn't let them do it in peace


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Agreed, if Masno is anything to go by the collapse of Ukrainian morale shouldn’t be relied on as a safety valve.

https://t.me/rybar/59670

Development of dual-use logistics on NATO's eastern flank
Against the background of the Quadriga 2024 exercises in Europe, issues of using civilian logistics infrastructure for military purposes (“Military Schengen”) are being studied. The EU's Connecting Europe Facility (CEF) plays a significant role in this.

The reconstruction of the Chop–Uzhgorod railway (Transcarpathian region) to Eurogauge (1430 mm) has already begun. Work on the Ukrainian section is part of the CEF project, which provides for the modernization of transport infrastructure by the end of 2027 to increase the movement of goods to the EU, incl. “dual-use” (as it is written in the documents, the Military Mobility program).

CEF assumed 50% of the costs (from 128.2 million €) in the modernization of three railway checkpoints (RCP) between Hungary, Slovakia and Ukraine, two BCP on the Polish-Ukrainian border and one on the Romanian-Ukrainian border. Work is planned on the Ukrainian railway: from station. Chop to st. Cerna nad Tisou (Slovakia) and Zahony (Hungary) and the Batjevo–Borzhava–Vinogradov–Djakovo section. It is planned to reconstruct the automobile PPR Luzhanka (Ukraine) - Beregsurany (Hungary), Zahony-Chop and Siret (Romania) - Porubnoye (Ukraine).

Without any fuss, work within the CEF began in 2022: the INTERPORT terminal at the railway station has been expanding since March. Haniske pri Kosice (Slovakia, €53 million, completion 2026), reconstruction of two runways (700 and 1800 m) and the Polish airport Rzeszow-Jasionka (€16.5 million, 2024-2025) has begun. In May 2023, reconstruction of the railway infrastructure of the marshalling station began. Valu lui Traiane (Romania) and railway station. in the port of Constanta (43.5 million €, 2025-2026). Thousands of tons of military cargo for Ukraine are delivered weekly through the Rzeszow airfield alone; its modernization will allow it to receive aircraft around the clock.

⭐️The development of NATO logistics is already a trend and makes preparations for war with Russia obvious.

The infrastructure being created, in addition to delivering military cargo to Ukraine, will be used to export the remaining Ukrainian resources, agricultural products and valuables to Europe to pay off Ukraine’s exorbitant debts.