AUKUS

[Skybird]

Austrian blogger Andreas Unterberger comparing the Swiss and Australian decisions for American instead of French wepai deals, and what this indicates for France and Europe.

https://www-andreas--unterberger-at....r_pto=nui,elem


Switzerland and Australia: Two weapons deals with global explosive power

Several conflicts between actually solid western states over the purchase of American instead of French weapons are causing waves. Among these waves, a dozen global political trends and lessons can be recognized - which are only ignored in many places.

On the surface the loud and impotent French anger can be heard, which has broken out against both Switzerland and Australia at the same time. Here Paris angrily calls off a meeting of presidents; there it demonstratively convenes its ambassador.

Bern and Canberra have committed the same "offense": They buy American instead of French weapons. In Switzerland, it is the purchase of F-35 stealth jets instead of French Rafale aircraft. In the case of Australia, it is the purchase of nuclear-powered US submarines instead of diesel-powered submarines from France.

In the Australian business alone, Paris is missing out on a 56 billion euro deal. A comparison shows how enormous this sum is: The finance minister of the Austrian federal government can only expect 76 billion income from all Austrian taxpayers for the whole of 2021.

In Switzerland, no amount is known for the time being. But together, the simultaneous collapse of two such huge businesses for France and its president is an absolute disaster:

France is falling behind economically anyway.

After all, France's arms exports, alongside exports of electricity generated with nuclear power, were pretty much the last field where France was still able to earn important foreign exchange. Red wine and cheese alone don't do it.

Germany is also the main partner, at whose expense France was able to survive all crises for a long time, now itself in a serious multiple crisis.


President Macron is facing extremely difficult elections for him next spring, in which the double affair is likely to have a catastrophic effect, both in terms of public humiliation and economic damage. Macron had long hoped to be able to cover up the economic weakness of his country by conveying the impression of foreign policy strength.

That explains why he's howling so loud now. Of course, it is rather questionable whether this howling will trigger a rethink among arms buyers in Australia and Switzerland, or among American arms sellers.

It is also quite unclear what his demand for European solidarity is supposed to mean. After all, neither Switzerland nor Australia are EU members. And Switzerland - at least geographically in Europe - has been humiliated by the EU Commission for a long time with regard to the bilateral agreements between Bern and Brussels.

So it is very bold from France to demand solidarity anywhere. Or does Macron even think that Germany, as the relatively largest EU power, should have put pressure on buyers or Washington to call off the reorientation of arms purchases? That would be particularly naive: Germany in particular has brutally rejected the American president in the last few months when he vehemently demanded that Berlin stop the almost (and now completely) finished Russian-German gas pipeline. Not even the Germans are so stupid that they accept the enormous damage of a pipeline stop at five past twelve so that France can reap the huge benefits of one of the largest arms deals in recent history.

But what lessons can be learned from the double affair? What's behind that? A whole lot:

In both cases there is a lot to be said for the assumption that the American offers are simply better in terms of weapons technology. Above all, the US aircraft or submarines are much more difficult to detect by opposing forces. In addition, Australia accuses France of having exceeded the discussed schedules by years.

The Americans may also have been more flexible when it comes to price. You have a strong motive for this: After the embarrassing setback in Afghanistan, you urgently need international success.


Although the agreements are not known in detail (which is never the case with international arms deals), there are unlikely to have been any legally binding sales contracts that would give France a chance to sue for billions in international arbitration tribunals.

For both buyer countries, especially Australia, the USA is far more important in terms of security policy. These were posted after Afghanistan, but there is absolutely nothing where Europe could give the impression that it has become more militarily relevant than America.

It is downright embarrassing for Europe and Macron in particular that they took Joe Biden's pro-European rhetoric at face value. Such niceties aren't worth 50 cents when it comes down to it. When it comes to the interests of his country, Biden and Donald Trump act absolutely the same as the heads of all other countries. Not having understood this is really embarrassing. You can read in every textbook on international politics that every reasonable country has its own interests at the top, and friends and political morals only come a long way behind.

This principle of national interests naturally also applies to buyers. And for Australia in particular, the USA is about a hundred times more important than France in terms of its own security. That would be a serious decision-making argument even if US weapons were not technically better. The French still fail to realize that 70 years have passed since they played a role anywhere in East Asia. But in the last 70 years they have relegated from the Indochinese colonial power to a European regional power.

The most important global aspect of the conflict is the security situation in the Pacific and South China Seas. The Chinese approach to become world power number one worries Australia, the USA and Great Britain enormously, so that they have entered into a new security alliance that tries to counter China's urge to expand through a kind of "containment" with a stop signal.


At first glance, this alliance looks like a mere revival of the old Anglo-Saxon alliance, in which only the former partner New Zealand is missing. There a socialist prime minister cares more about feminist, climate, political correctness and Aboriginal issues than about the security of her country.

In truth, however, the strategic dimension goes far beyond that. There are at least strong indications that this three-party alliance is also viewed with a great deal of sympathy by a number of countries bordering that area, which also include the prospect of future cooperation. At least since the brutal Chinese crackdown on Hong Kong, since the occupation of islands actually belonging to other countries, and since China's gain in influence in Afghanistan, Myanmar and Pakistan, these states have raised the level of alert significantly. It is about the great powers Japan (a close US ally since the World War) and India (whose relationship with the United States has become friendlier from year to year; this relationship has survived the move from Trump to Biden well). It is about Taiwan and South Korea (both of which have always been completely dependent on US protection), the Philippines, Malaysia and even Vietnam, despite the similarity of the form of government (China and Vietnam are a communist-capitalist dictatorship) is an old opponent of the Chinese. Closer military cooperation between Vietnam and the USA would be a world-historical sensation. After all, the Vietnam debacle was the worst defeat for the United States in its entire history.


There can be no question at all that the center of world politics for the next few decades will be in this space. Even Russia, the old adversary of the West, is out of the game there - out of weakness, but also out of uncertainty about what would actually best serve its own interests.

At first glance, it is certainly advantageous for the European Union if Europe is no longer the central (also war) arena of global political confrontations, as it has been for centuries.

On the other hand, the double arms sales affair makes it clearer than ever: Europe urgently needs its own security identity if it wants to defend its own interests. It can no longer rely on the USA as it did in the 20th century, nor on the British who were bullied out of the EU. The Americans have largely lost interest in Europe, where they have only ever received instructions, but no willingness to commit themselves sufficiently to common security (NATO). And, ironically, the British have now begun exactly the British-American cooperation that Boris Johnson has been talking about for years, but which EU-Europeans have always portrayed as a pipe dream.

Europe therefore needs a real common security and defense policy more than ever: for its own comprehensive security; for securing his own environment, especially in the Mediterranean and North Africa; to stop the migrant invasion; in order (following the Australian example!) to secure landing sites for migrants to be deported; to prevent the spread of Islamism; to secure its commercial interests; to be able to take effective internal action against terrorism, cyberattacks and civil unrest; but also so as not to be so embarrassingly tricked as it has now happened to the French. What shouldn't be viewed with glee in the other EU countries either, but rather recognized as economic damage for the whole of Europe!

But what is happening in the EU?

They haven't woken up there in recent years, even due to the violent wars in Syria and Libya. Although these took place and are taking place in the immediate vicinity of the EU, the conflicts - apart from a few donations of words - have largely been left to others: Russians, Turks, Iranians, Kurds, Egyptians and a little bit the Americans (but also quickly in these two conflicts lost interest again).

In EU Europe, the really important issues are totally neglected: Alongside the internal market and economic stability, this is clearly military security. Instead, a left-wing liberal majority, abandoned by all good spirits, is trying to make the reverence for gays, transvestites and "diverse people", excessive debt accumulation and the humiliation of Eastern European members the central content of the Union.

You grasp your head in despair.

[Exocet25fr]

Many blabla here proves the worry........

Skybird wrote:

In both cases there is a lot to be said for the assumption that the American offers are simply better in terms of weapons technology. Above all, the US aircraft or submarines are much more difficult to detect by opposing forces.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/bu...carrier-116216

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/bu...bmarine-190452



Joe Biden said:

“With our values ​​and our strength, we will defend our allies and our friends, and oppose the attempts of the stronger countries to dominate the weaker”, he insisted.

USA is the good one stronger country, of course ?

[Jimbuna]

Points well written and taken Sky but a word of caution to one poster here.....one should think carefully before attempting to belittle US military strength and achievements. Some countries have a history of being conquered and surrendering.

Just saying

[Commander Wallace]

Originally Posted by Exocet25fr

Many blabla here proves the worry........

Skybird wrote:

In both cases there is a lot to be said for the assumption that the American offers are simply better in terms of weapons technology. Above all, the US aircraft or submarines are much more difficult to detect by opposing forces.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/bu...carrier-116216

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/bu...bmarine-190452



Joe Biden said:

“With our values ​​and our strength, we will defend our allies and our friends, and oppose the attempts of the stronger countries to dominate the weaker”, he insisted.

USA is the good one stronger country, of course ?

The Swedish submarine that " sank " an American carrier was a Diesel Electric submarine. It also employed the newest technology with regards to AIP propusion. What's more, the exercise was in fact an exercise to test sensors, nothing more.

It did however show that specially equipped diesel electric submarines that are specially outfitted can remain underwater as quiet as an open grave. Every major power that employs Submarines understands this.

Further, with regards to the deal between France and Australia, it has been well documented that Australia had misgiving years ago about the French designs and their suitability to function in the intended environment in a competent way.

Add the fact that mismanagement on the part of the French saw the initial costs balloon from 40 $ billion to $60 billion, even before construction had begun, also showed problems emerging. That sounds like the " classic bait and switch " tactic and it just backfired. It should come as no surprise That Australia cancelled the submarine deal and looked for alternatives.


https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...rs-2021-09-21/

[Otto Harkaman]

[Jimbuna]

Boris Johnson has told the French president to "donnez-moi un break" and get over his anger about a new military pact between the UK, US and Australia.

Speaking to reporters in Washington, he said it was time for "some of our dearest friends" to "prenez un grip".

Paris is angry after Australia signed the Aukus pact to build nuclear-powered submarines, pulling out of a major contract with France in the process.

Mr Johnson insisted they were "not trying to shoulder anybody out".
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58654624

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Exocet25fr

Joe Biden said:

“With our values ​​and our strength, we will defend our allies and our friends, and oppose the attempts of the stronger countries to dominate the weaker”, he insisted.

USA is the good one stronger country, of course ?

China builds every 3.5 years that many ships that the whole French navy currently calls its own in all its operational theatres. Not even 6000 personnel scattered across various islands and atolls make France a lightweight in the Far East - and a bad bet for Australia to count on for prtecting it by some superclever superbiased French strategy designed to not spoil business contracts with China. France does not want a stronger Australia capable to stand up against Chinese bullying.

Paris belittles London a lot concerning "living in memories of a glorious past empire." Maybe Paris would be well-advised to look in the mirror first before risking such mockery.


------


Sooner or later the US and the EU member states will seriously collide over European support for China. Will be interesting to see what choice Europeans make if Washington forces them to pick sides instead of wantignto dance on both parties simultaneously. Biden gave first two impressions of how things will go in the future, with Afghanistan and the submarines. I think many Republicans and Europeans alike, did not see this coming.

[Exocet25fr]

Skybird wrote:

"Sooner or later the US and the EU member states will seriously collide over European support for China. Will be interesting to see what choice Europeans make if Washington forces them to pick sides instead of wantignto dance on both parties simultaneously. Biden gave first two impressions of how things will go in the future, with Afghanistan and the submarines. I think many Republicans and Europeans alike, did not see this coming."

About France all shall depend of the next French president(e)?, Vassal macron is alone !, Bruno Le Maire (Economy Minister), opposition and French People opinion have no more trust in the USA!, and all they are furious after the call phone!.

The following link is in French, if you understand the french langage, you will see the comments wich disapprove our president decision.

https://actu.orange.fr/politique/sou...0001EDL60.html

Wait and See, and about China why not....?!

De Gaulle was right about leave Nato!, shame to Sarkozy for reinstate it!

[ET2SN]

Meanwhile, this vid should scare the beejesus out of all of us.



Just my opinion, but an armed conflict would feature moderate to heavy military casualties at sea and massive civilian casualties on land.
Not just Taiwan and Australia, but also the Philippines, Indonesia, Japan, basically anyone in the line of fire. Then, there is the economic impact that will ripple out to India and, eventually, Europe.

Which makes it all so ironic. China and Taiwan currently trade with each other quite a bit and control a large portion of transport shipping. Is China really expecting a return to normalcy two months after a shooting war?

"Sorry we targeted your cities and population. BTW, we're ready to take orders for refrigerators and microwave ovens as soon as you are."

[mapuc]

Lets pray such a war is far away.

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by ET2SN

Which makes it all so ironic. China and Taiwan currently trade with each other quite a bit and control a large portion of transport shipping. Is China really expecting a return to normalcy two months after a shooting war?

Yes (though maybe not in two months). Normalcy dictated by conditions set by them.

Do not use Western standards to assess the value of their decisions. Use THEIR standards and see through THEIR eyes.

Thanks to globalization and thanks to European fixiation on seeing China not as an enemy, but an economic competitor but else: a partner for cooperation, Europe will react too late and will be too dependent to act forcefully and is not capable anyway to make any difference in the region.

Its not just Taiwan. Its also the South Chinese Sea. And practically every neighbour of theirs.

And its their leader who implements his family clan as the new imperial dynasty. Xi is, in relative comparison to the rest of the world, the by far most powerful Chinese emperor since many, many centuries. And look how much Chiense people are worried by that: not at all.

And that should worry us non-Chinese more than anything.

My only hope remaining is that China has on Heinsohn's war-index an as-low index value as the US and European countries, it is around just 1, like the American, with Europeanb values usually being clearly below 1.

Heinsohn also points at something else, and that is the competitiveness of systems due to education levels and "intellectual brightness". Here, the Asian natiosn and namely China are on direct path to leave the worlds behind. And that will make itself felt in economic and scientific contexts and will bring us into deeper and deeper dependencies. Whereas in the US, the falling levels of educaiton amognsat whites is one of the reasons for the upfalring racism that rips its society apart, because white students no longer are the elite amongst educated ethnic groups, but have been left behind. This adds to the general feel amongst certain white groups to be loosing and be left behind. They feel that because it is true, not just imagination.



Why this matters? Becasue a dividing union in North America makes sure that America will be more and more busy with just itself, being distracted increasingly from world affairs. Of course it also means that military technology quality increasingly shifts in favour of China, which in many fields already is en par, in a few: superior. These are no longer forces that only win by overwhelming numbers.

https://heinsohn-gunnar.eu/mt-conten...hn-12-2010.pdf


https://think-beyondtheobvious.com/s...nnar-heinsohn/

[Gorpet]

Originally Posted by Exocet25fr

Skybird wrote:

"Sooner or later the US and the EU member states will seriously collide over European support for China. Will be interesting to see what choice Europeans make if Washington forces them to pick sides instead of wantignto dance on both parties simultaneously. Biden gave first two impressions of how things will go in the future, with Afghanistan and the submarines. I think many Republicans and Europeans alike, did not see this coming."

About France all shall depend of the next French president(e)?, Vassal macron is alone !, Bruno Le Maire (Economy Minister), opposition and French People opinion have no more trust in the USA!, and all they are furious after the call phone!.

The following link is in French, if you understand the french langage, you will see the comments wich disapprove our president decision.

https://actu.orange.fr/politique/sou...0001EDL60.html

Wait and See, and about China why not....?!

De Gaulle was right about leave Nato!, shame to Sarkozy for reinstate it!

Joe Biden is nothing but a mouth piece of the wealthy who at this point in time call the shots for america. Apparently the french wealthy masters and our masters don't agree . Your masters have eyeballs on south america maybe the next retreat for them. If you can tell me why France after WW2 has found its self "without a bunch of bull****" in this position as an american i would like to know.
We who live in the states and the counties within those states of america don't get any information.We are not as free as the world think's. Hell our government will not even provide free language programs we can install on our computers to learn all the languages of the immigrant's that are flooding our borders. So if you feel butt hurt Look to your wealthy masters.Maybe be we should have elected the the person who has spent half their lives as a plumber. ce ya

[mapuc]

This French company has sent a bill to Australia for breaking the agreement.

As said before I hope a conflict in the South China sea is far away...I fear though that it only need a tiny spark to ignite it.

Markus

[Gorpet]

Originally Posted by Exocet25fr

Skybird wrote:

"Sooner or later the US and the EU member states will seriously collide over European support for China. Will be interesting to see what choice Europeans make if Washington forces them to pick sides instead of wantignto dance on both parties simultaneously. Biden gave first two impressions of how things will go in the future, with Afghanistan and the submarines. I think many Republicans and Europeans alike, did not see this coming."

About France all shall depend of the next French president(e)?, Vassal macron is alone !, Bruno Le Maire (Economy Minister), opposition and French People opinion have no more trust in the USA!, and all they are furious after the call phone!.

The following link is in French, if you understand the french langage, you will see the comments wich disapprove our president decision.

https://actu.orange.fr/politique/sou...0001EDL60.html

Wait and See, and about China why not....?!

De Gaulle was right about leave Nato!, shame to Sarkozy for reinstate it!

tried to post . it was great your panties would have been in a knot. But as usual when i hit post , after rechecking all spelling and hitting submit. it was gone. so i can only assume after a certain time an alithogram will determine what will be posted. If not that it will be by moderator.

[Gorpet]

Sorry, i have been told, give time and you will get a reply. This is why my response may take a while and when i make it. It doesn't matter, Time has past but i will always get an answer. Not instagram here so i must eat the crow. taste like ****. but i deserve it.