Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[mapuc]

A funny picture-It had however been more trustworthy if the text on the left side of the thing had been in Russian.

Markus

[Dargo]

Garry Kasparov, considered to be one of the greatest chess players in history having held the number one spot for a record-setting 255 months, and a leading voice in the Russian opposition, sat down with the Kyiv Post’s correspondent Jason Jay Smart to discuss how the West can pressure Putin, the scandal embroiling the chess world today, and what the future of Ukraine will be.

How do you think that Putin’s calculus about the war in Ukraine has changed?

Well, analyzing war games is not the same as chess games. However, judging from what I have heard and can analyze, it looks clear that Ukraine is doing much better. It’s still too early to say that it’s done. We will still have many more months of exhaustive fighting because Russia still has many more resources to throw into the flames of the war. However, the news is encouraging.

What’s changed?

There’s a factor that’s underestimated by the West: It’s the psychological factor. Morale is always a problem, just as is military equipment. And today, the morale of the Russian soldiers is deteriorating. Alternatively, it seems that the Ukrainians are at the point where they’re willing to bear any cost to liberate their country and defeat the enemy.

The continuation of the war will have a dramatic effect inside of Russia. You have wounded soldiers coming back to the poor countryside. We don’t know the exact numbers but the latest leak from the Ministry of Defense put the death toll at 50k. That’s a big number to deal with, even for Russia.

Those who were mobilized or were wounded will cause chaos. Here in America we know this post-war syndrome. These returning soldiers will cause problems.

The situation in Russia will deteriorate. The war in Ukraine isn’t going Russia’s way. Sanctions have not destroyed the country but they continue biting. They are having an effect.

So, combined – between the war in Ukraine going badly and sanctions – we will see if Putin is able to maintain his grip on power.

You understand Putin and how he and the power structure around him thinks. What are they doing with the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant? Also, do you think that Putin would use nuclear weapons?

All of these questions about nukes are very hypothetical. Putin has never dealt with situations like this one. This crisis is different for him.

Putin’s been lucky that he has always been able to escape. His opponents always folded their cards instead of calling his bluff. I think we’re now at the point in history where even the very mediocre leadership of the free world realized that we had no other choice but to call Putin’s bluff.

I think that Putin realizes his tricks won’t work as they did before. That’s why we aren’t hearing the same bold threats, the brazen threats, from Putin’s generals or Putin’s entourage who were formally saying “we will use whatever weapons,” etc. They seem to be finding a middle ground: Not to drop threats all together, because they understand that If NATO is dragged in, then it would be a disaster for them.

Then what’s next?

Basically, the war is lost. If you look at all of the objectives that Putin set for the war, all of them have failed. All of them. So, continuing the war is the only way for Putin to stay in power. He wants to create extra chaos in the free world hoping that a new window will open for him. It’s really just a protracted agony. It is cynical and stupid, but Putin is willing to put thousands of civilians into graves in the months to come before the whole of Ukraine is liberated, if that will allow him to maintain power.

You just had your Congress for a Free Russia a few days ago. How was it? What do you see coming with the opposition?

It was a huge success. We had over 500 participants in Vilnius. The biggest we ever had.

We had a very impressive list of foreign participants: High level leaders. They demonstrated that the Russian Action Committee, the group I founded with Mikhail Khodorkhovsky, is the main voice of the Russian opposition in exile.

We had the former President of Estonia and Ministers of Foreign Affairs from Lithuania and Latvia. Interestingly, the British parliamentarian who headed the Foreign Affairs Committee, was appointed as Minister of State Security by Liz Truss just a couple of days later.

We had a great panel on sanctions with Bill Browder and Ambassador Mike McFaul.

I ran a panel called “The war in Ukraine: The last war of Russia?” There’s a group I call the coalition of the willing: Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Poland, and Great Britain.

What do you propose the West do now?

We believe that the free world must do everything to help Ukraine win. There’s no other solution: Unconditional victory of Ukraine – and the unconditional defeat of Putin.

The only chance to defeat Putin’s fascism is to raise the Ukrainian flag in Sevastopol, Crimea. That’s the top priority for anyone who wants to see our planet safe from Putin’s existential threat of destruction.

We believe that Europe should demonstrate its resolve by banning Russian tourism all together – total ban on Russian tourists.

At the same time, we believe that those Russians who wish to leave Putin’s “North Korea,” as we jokingly call it, and who wish to come to “South Korea” and the free world, should be given this opportunity if they sign a decree simple that the war is criminal, Putin’s regime is illegitimate, and that Ukraine is whole. We are seeking a combined approach.

We hope that friendly governments will understand and that’s why we are already talking to a number of governments about this. There’s likely around 100,000 Russians who are ready to completely cut all ties with Putin’s Russia.

Let me ask you a couple of questions from Kyiv Post readers: What do you think of the NRA

It’s fake.

Who is behind the organization then?

I don’t know. I’m not an expert in fakes. You know, Ponomarev is using this to advertise his own agenda. I think it’s falling apart, and unfortunately, it has had some ramifications for people inside of Russia as the Putin government has been arresting people inside of Russia because of this. These fakes could have lethal effects for people who could otherwise be safe.

The chess world has been rocked by a scandal as top-ranked champion Magnus Carlsen quit the St. Louis Sinquefield Cup a couple of days ago. What do you make of this?

I don’t know all the details about the scandal in St. Louis where Carlsen pulled out after his match with Hans Niemann and he came just short of accusing his opponent of cheating. And I don’t wish to speculate.

But, I think that Carlsen’s decision is unacceptable. As a world champ he has a responsibility to the game. Showing this disrespect to the players and organizers, St. Louis is the most prestigious tournament in the world, and it is absolutely wrong to do what he did.

Carlsen must at least provide an explanation. You can’t just walk away and so far, he’s done just that. That bothers me a lot.

Do you think that Putin is a threat to you and your security?

Probably. But thinking about it doesn’t help.

If there was something that you could tell Ukrainians: What would you tell them?

Their heroism is so refreshing at a time of cynicism. I wish them strength. I believe that we all owe them big. I don’t think we could ever compensate them for the sacrifices they’ve made, not just for their country, but for freedom around the world.

As a Russian citizen – though with the longest record of fighting Putin – I still feel responsible for the suffering that the Ukrainians are suffering and caused by Putin’s criminal regime. We will never be able to repay Ukraine for their sacrifices, heroism, and spirit. Ukraine is a beacon to the free world.

What Ukraine has done has reminded all of us that we had values and ideas worth fighting for – and dying for.

This interview was edited for clarity and length. https://www.kyivpost.com/multimedia/...garry-kasparov

[Dargo]

In the talk show of Andrei Norkin and Ivan Troeshkin on the Russian state broadcaster NTV, the confusion can be read from the faces of the hosts. There is no conclusive story yet, and this leads to unprecedented candor among the guests. That all is not well with the Russians in Ukraine is well known. Even the major evening news acknowledges that last week was "the most difficult week on the front lines" of the "special military operation," as the Kremlin continues to call the war. So denial is not necessary, but if everyone starts saying what they think, Russia has a problem. In the talk show, distributed by the website RussiaMediaMonitor, some panelists go much further this time. They appear to have lost faith in the Kremlin's stories and in the war itself. Openly, some panelists even say that this war is no longer winnable or else it will last a very long time: two opinions that people have always jealously kept to themselves until now.

Things go awry, for example, when the most outspoken panelist, ex-politician Boris Nadezhdin, says that Russia has no chance if it continues "to use the current means and the colonial methods of war. With the word "colonial" he touches a nerve with Dumas member Aleksandr Kazakov. The latter scornfully calls Nadezhdin a "noncomrade" and threatens him live on television: "I once again advise you to watch your words. Talking about a 'colonial war', even in passing, is unacceptable in this context. A warning like this could have nasty consequences in Russia, but the intimidation no longer works on Nadezhdin. He continues on the same footing. He no longer believes that Russia can win the war against Ukraine, he says, and thinks it is time for peace negotiations. It is either full-scale war, with a "total mobilization," or quit and leave Ukraine. There is no longer a middle ground, according to him. Diehard and Dumas member Sergei Mironov ripostes with standard propaganda: 'There can be no negotiations with Zelensky's Nazi regime.' He confides in the leadership and the military: 'Vladimir Vladimirovich (Putin) said recently: we haven't even started yet.' 'Sorry, but then what are we waiting for?' jumps in Viktor Olevych (political expert). 'You say, everything is going according to plan. Do you really believe that someone planned six months ago that we now had to resist a counteroffensive from Kharkiv, that we could not conquer Kharkiv and that we had to leave Balaklia?'

Putin himself remains out of harm's way, but if anyone should be blamed for the debacle, it's the surrounding advisers, says Nadezhdin. 'Those people have fooled us all.' He is joined by political commentator Aleksandr Timofejef. 'For a long, long time there has been an expert who always says that if the Russian army enters Odessa, there is only one danger: that the soldiers will be hugged to death by the inhabitants who have been overcome by their love for the Russians. Surely, after February 24, we all understand very well that this is not how things are done.' Timofejef is clearly not fooled anymore either. The same expert is now saying on federal television that we must fight on until the bitter end. If his expertise was so wrong before, why should I listen to this man now?' Host Andrei Norkin thinks it's time to conclude. 'I think we should deal with that later, when the military phase is over.' But Nadezhdin hooks up again. 'How long will it take?' 'As long as it takes,' is Norkin's reply. Nadezhdin: 'Thank you for this honest answer. So my children, who are now 10 years old, will soon have the chance to join the fight, yes?'

https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-ach...rlog~b67ddb7f/

[Dargo]

Another rotation of Russians troops will mainly consist of residents of the Russian Far East and Kamchatka, as they are better adapted to life in low temperature conditions and will be more effective in the winter period, reports the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Defence Ministry.

Source: Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine

Details: Ukrainian Intelligence says that new recruits are better adapted to life in conditions of low temperatures and will be more effective in winter. Also, these servicemen are not accustomed to comfort and will easily tolerate the lack of well-established living conditions.

The Intelligence Directorate has learned that Kremlin recruiters managed to attract part of the population of the northern regions with promises of high payments.

However, these personnel "are poorly trained and know practically nothing about the real state of affairs of the hostilities in Ukraine."

Meanwhile, the Russian Federation has announced a campaign to raise funds for the purchase of winter uniforms for the occupying contingent stationed in Ukraine.

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/09/12/7367126/

[Dargo]

Not even the Pentagon expected Ukraine’s blitzkrieg to move so quickly.

Top Western defense officials were informed in advance that Ukraine was planning a two-front counteroffensive to retake territory captured by Russia, but they have been surprised by the blistering pace of Kyiv’s gains in the north, according to four officials with knowledge of the discussions.

Ukrainian forces rolled through lightly manned Russian posts around Kharkiv over the weekend, retaking more than 1,000 square miles around the city and pushing east — in some cases all the way up to the Russian border. Russian forces retreated from two key logistical hubs, the towns of Izyum and Kupiansk, as their ranks were depleted by the simultaneous fight in Kherson in the south.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/0...nsive-00056244

[mapuc]

I was surprised too. On two account

1. The offensive where they pushed forward-Even though I have said they should lure Russia. It nevertheless toke me by surprise

2. The speed of this offensive and the speed of Russian being defeated.

Markus

[Rockstar]

[Catfish]

^ he hits hard

[Catfish]

"Border clashes erupt between Armenia, Azerbaijan":

https://www.dw.com/en/top-stories/s-9097

[Catfish]

Russian Energy Chief Ivan Pechorin, dies after falling off boat in 8th such suspicious death since Putin's Ukraine invasion

The managing director of the Far East and Arctic Development Corporation (ERDC) died under mysterious circumstances on Saturday, Russian media reported.

"Pechorin's body was recovered from the waters on Monday following an extended search. This came days after he attended the Eastern Economic Forum, which was hosted by Russian President Vladimir Putin in Vladivostok."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...93117dcbf26304

[Jimbuna]

We've retaken 6,000 sq km from Russia, says Zelensky

Ukrainian forces have seized even more territory from Russia as they continue their counter-offensive, the country's president has said.

Volodymyr Zelensky said troops have now retaken more than 6,000 sq km (2,317 sq miles) from Russian control in September, in the east and the south.

The BBC cannot verify these figures.

Russia has admitted losing key cities in the north-eastern Kharkiv region, in what is seen by some military experts as a potential breakthrough in the war.

Moscow describes its troop withdrawal from the region in recent days as a "regrouping" with the aim of focusing on the Luhansk and Donetsk regions in Ukraine's east.

That claim has been ridiculed even in Russia, with many social media users there describing the stated pull-out as "shameful".

Speaking later on Monday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Ukrainian forces had made "significant progress" in their counter-offensive, but added that it was too early to predict the outcome.

"The Russians maintain very significant forces in Ukraine as well as equipment and arms and munitions. They continue to use it indiscriminately against not just the Ukrainian armed forces but civilians and civilian infrastructure as we've seen," Mr Blinken said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on 24 February. Russia still holds about a fifth of the country.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62884668

[Jimbuna]

You can normally expect Russian state TV's flagship weekly news programme to trumpet Kremlin successes.

But Sunday's edition opened with a rare admission.

"On the frontlines of the special operation [in Ukraine], this has been the toughest week so far," declared sombre-looking anchor Dmitry Kiselev.

"It was particularly tough along the Kharkiv front, where following an onslaught by enemy forces that outnumbered ours, [Russian] troops were forced to leave towns they had previously liberated."

For "liberated", read "seized". Moscow had occupied those areas months ago, but after a lightning counter-offensive by the Ukrainian army, the Russian military has lost considerable territory in north-east Ukraine.

Still, Russian state media are putting a brave face on things. Officially, what happened in Kharkiv region isn't being referred to here as a "retreat".

"The Russian defence ministry dismissed rumours that Russian troops fled in disgrace from Balakliya, Kupiansk and Izyum," claimed the latest edition of the government paper, Rossiyskaya Gazeta. "They didn't flee. This was a pre-planned regrouping."

In tabloid Moskovsky Komsomolets, a military analyst took a different view: "It's already clear that we underestimated the enemy. [Russian forces] took too long to react and the collapse came… As a result, we suffered a defeat and tried to minimise the loss by withdrawing our troops so they weren't surrounded."

This "defeat" has sparked anger on pro-Russian social media channels and among "patriotic" Russian bloggers, who have accused their military of making mistakes.

So has the powerful leader of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov.

"If today or tomorrow no changes in strategy are made," Mr Kadyrov warned, "I will be forced to speak with the leadership of the defence ministry and the leadership of the country to explain the real situation on the ground to them. It's a very interesting situation. It's astounding."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62879367

[Jimbuna]

The BBC’s Analysis Editor Ros Atkins looks at the significance of Ukraine’s counter-offensive against Russian forces in the Kharkiv region.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-62881571

[Jimbuna]

Occupiers are urgently evacuating their families from occupied Crimea and Southern Ukraine, - intelligence

The successful actions of the defenders of Ukraine force the so-called "authorities" of the temporarily occupied Crimea and the south of our country to urgently relocate their families to the territory of the Russian Federation.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to the data of the Defence Intelligence.

"Despite the assurance of the population that it is safe to stay on the peninsula, representatives of the occupation administration of Crimea, employees of the FSB, and commanders of some military units are secretly trying to sell their homes and urgently take their relatives out of the peninsula," the report says.

Also, according to intelligence, the occupiers have prohibited the conclusion of agreements on the purchase and sale of housing, set restrictions on movement across the Crimean bridge and are trying in every way to close access to information about the counteroffensive actions of the defenders of Ukraine. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3366800

[Jimbuna]

Kremlin is trying to buy ammunition for Soviet artillery systems from republics of Central Asia, - Defence Intelligence

The Kremlin is trying to use the resources of Central Asian countries in the war against Ukraine. First of all, the Russian Federation is interested in the possibility of replenishing stocks of Soviet ammunition and spare parts for military equipment.

This is reported by Censor.NET with reference to the press service of the Defence Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

"Recently, the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation of the Russian Federation turned to the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Tajikistan with a request for the transfer of 220-mm rockets to the Uragan surface-to-air missile. The Russians are also interested in ammunition for the 203-mm Pion self-propelled guns and FTD-20 engines for IFV-1 and IFV-2, which are stored in large quantities in the military warehouses of Tajikistan," the message says.

In addition, retired military personnel and employees of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Tajikistan receive offers to sign a contract with the Russian Armed Forces and take part in the war against Ukraine.

"A recruiting campaign is underway in the Kyrgyz Republic. In the chat room of graduates of the Bishkek Higher Military School, messages are received with offers to sign contracts with the Russian Armed Forces or one of the private military companies.
Similar recruitment messages are distributed throughout the republic in professional chat rooms of former military personnel and employees of the Ministry of Internal Affairs," the Defence Intelligence added. Source: https://censor.net/en/n3366775