Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[mapuc]

Markus

[Jimbuna]

[Dargo]

According to the US Department of Defence, the main attack of the Ukrainian counteroffensive has begun. This is reported by The New York Times on the basis of two anonymous but highly placed sources within the Pentagon. Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers trained in the West and held in reserve behind the front in recent months are now said to have been deployed. The attack was reportedly deployed in the southeast of the country. There is no official confirmation from the Ukrainian side, but President Volodymyr Zelensky did say tonight that "very good news has come from the front". The president did not give more details, but he did say more news would follow soon.

Earlier today, the Russian defence ministry said that Ukraine had launched a new large-scale attack in Zaporizhzhya province. Russian military bloggers also reported heavy fighting and advancing Ukrainian troops, using tanks and armoured vehicles given to them by the West. According to the Russian defence ministry, all attacks were repelled, but those reports could not be independently verified.

[mapuc]

Maybe it's to much to hope for a repetition like we saw in autumn last year.

This time the Russian is prepared or will we again see them running as hell from the frontline ?

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Maybe it's to much to hope for a repetition like we saw in autumn last year.

That was clear from beginning of the offensive on, and nobody expected such a swift stunt again. Hope was for success, though harder fought over. Lats autumn, there were no Russian fortified defence lines and defences zones 20-30km deep.

This time the Russian is prepared or will we again see them running as hell from the frontline ?

Some do runb, but so do some Ukrainians as well. The Russian lines so far hold. If the Ukrainaisnb even reach them, which mostly is not the case, they still dela with outposts before thefor st line, and minefields that constantly get renewed byartillery. Where the media show pictures and videos from Ukrainian commandos storming trenches and hidden stands, these are so far said outposts, not fortifications embedded in the first defence line. Two or three days ago I red (and I think posted a translated text) that the Ukrioanains are good in storming these oputpsots - but that they mostly must withdraw sooin again because the Russians quickly come down with heavy artillery on every position they have lost or have lost contact to. If you stay in the stand you just "conquered", you are dead.

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FOCUS writes:


The Ukrainian Armed Forces say they have made terrain gains in eastern and southern Ukraine, but they have also faced problems. "Due to the difficult and contradictory situation in the Bachmut and Lyman sections, we had to adjust our plans," the commander-in-chief of the land forces, Olexander Syrskyj, told the Telegram messaging service on Tuesday.

Earlier, General Staff spokesman Andriy Kovalev had spoken of an advance toward the village of Andriivka, south of the Russian-controlled town of Bachmut. In the southern part of Donetsk region, Ukrainian troops had again advanced between 500 and 750 meters near the village of Staromajorske.

The Ukrainian changes in plans presumably relate to Russian advances from the Luhansk region toward the neighboring Kharkiv region north of the Kiev-controlled town of Lyman. According to consistent reports, Russian troops have made terrain gains west of Karmasynivka.

According to unconfirmed local reports, there were explosions in the central part of the Black Sea peninsula of Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014. It was initially unclear whether these were due to the use of Russian air defense or actual impacts.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dargo

According to the US Department of Defence, the main attack of the Ukrainian counteroffensive has begun. This is reported by The New York Times on the basis of two anonymous but highly placed sources within the Pentagon. Thousands of Ukrainian soldiers trained in the West and held in reserve behind the front in recent months are now said to have been deployed. The attack was reportedly deployed in the southeast of the country. There is no official confirmation from the Ukrainian side, but President Volodymyr Zelensky did say tonight that "very good news has come from the front". The president did not give more details, but he did say more news would follow soon.

Earlier today, the Russian defence ministry said that Ukraine had launched a new large-scale attack in Zaporizhzhya province. Russian military bloggers also reported heavy fighting and advancing Ukrainian troops, using tanks and armoured vehicles given to them by the West. According to the Russian defence ministry, all attacks were repelled, but those reports could not be independently verified.

CNN:
Russian officials and military bloggers claimed Ukraine launched a major offensive in the southern Zaporizhzhia region. Ukraine has not yet commented on this reported offensive, but a defense official said its forces are "gradually advancing" near Melitopol and Berdiansk in the region.

And:

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-...dd93eac1f581dc



Lets hope this is true and indicates something bigger then so far. And lets hope they are more successful. Melitopol is the goal line, or contact with the coast south-east or south-west of Melitopol.

[Skybird]

Russia's gunship fleet of KA-52 have been reinforced with a new version that incorporates experiences they made in Syria. With these units, the fielding of the LMUR air to ground missile has been intensified, where before apparently it was used more sporadically only. The mean detail here is that this missiles has a range of 15 km. It outranges local air defences like manpads and Gepards and means really bad news for mechanised formations trying to advance.

The Washington Post is quoted with its refering to its sources in the Pentagon that there is only muted trust in the reported beginning of the main thrust of the ukrainian offensive. These sources say that the size of this move and how many troops of the reserve are engaged, is unclear, and that one has not yet understood the purpose of the Ukrianian manouvering. A government official said that it could be they just send new troops to rotate out exhausted troops.

Other press media report that the ukrainians in that sector, which is around 90 km exactly east of the nuclear powerplant at Saporishia, have made contact with the first defence line of the Rusians in that area, and a Russian regional commander posted on Telegram that the line has been breached at three locations.



The red lines/dots mark Russian trenches and defence fortifications, early summer 2023.

I marked the region of interest with a blue "V". Its some of the heaviest layer of defences there, and if from there they turn south-west to Melitopol you can see that then they have the maximum thickness of defences against them. Or they go south-east to the coast, bypassing Melitopol - and keeping greater distance from Crimea, which is not wanted. They want their artillery/missiles being able to cover all of Crimea.

The picture thus is obscured and what really is going on is unclear. If there will be lasting advance, it will be slow and take weeks. The region it is about is beside Bakhmut the most heavily defended one in the Russian front, and almost nowhere are the prepared defences as intense and mutli-layered, as here. The Russians expected the attack to come down this road, and the Ukrainians seem to think they have no other chance than to go here. If this is the real big push, of course.

Zelensky called the NATO-Ukraine council for action over the grain transports, but got nothing substantial in deed and action, only a thunderstorm of determined words and phrases. He must be totally disappointed, and even is not allowed to show it.

BBC reports that Western armour gives troops better protection, but struggles to push through Russian defences:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66306150

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Catfish]

IMHO laying mines is the most cowardly tactic apart from taking hostages.
Yes i am well aware that all sides use(d) it.
I think even Russia itself does not know where it placed all those mines, this will also be a future problem.
Best way to overcome it now is to place troops in the back of the fortified russian lines, like Germany did with the Maginot line.

[Jimbuna]

My poor heart bleeds for him (Putin)

Vladimir Putin has been snubbed by dozens of African leaders as the Russian autocrat deals with the reality of his nation's dwindling global influence.

Just 17 African leaders will attend a summit that begins in St Petersburg on Thursday. Four years ago, when the conference was first held, 43 leaders travelled to the event.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...266b0159&ei=31

Cut price oil for China and India and now the promise of free grain?

Of course the Russian economy is thriving....right?

Russian President Vladimir Putin told African leaders in St Petersburg on Thursday that Russia would send up to 50,000 tons of grain for free to six African countries.

"In the coming months, we will be able to ensure free supplies of 25,000 to 50,000 tons of grain to Burkina Faso, Zimbabwe, Mali, Somalia, Central African Republic and Eritrea," he said in a speech opening the Russia-Africa summit.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...0860eb4f&ei=28

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Catfish

IMHO laying mines is the most cowardly tactic apart from taking hostages.

"Cowardly"...? What century are you living in...?
Its effective. War has a different set of needs and logic than peace. Apply peacetime moral to war situations, and you loose every single time.

Battle of Azincourt, 1415. Peasants dressed as English Longbow archers lined up on the battlefield and mowed down France's elite knights cavalry, a total generation of its finest, from distances unimaginable before, defeating their heavy plate armour due to their Bodkins arrowheads, and certainly not in ("honourable") fight man versus man, but by swarms of drones arrows. At that time many demanded that every caught archer of the enemy should not be pardoned but executed for his cowardly, dishonourable way to fight.

It did not matter. The Englishmen won. Or better: they served the French their bottoms on silver plates.

The Americans preferred night attacks when possible in the Gulf war, due to their night vision gear and thermal displays giving them decisive advantage over the Iraqi's practical night blindness. How unfair! Same for NAOT over Sowjet troops in Cold War turning hot war: it was expected that NATO would counterattack in the night and defend in the day.

Ukrainian tanks from Sovjet era with mine clearing equipment attached to them, can sustain 3-4 mines exploding before the kit is destroyed and must be replaced. The russians reacted to that and now place two mines over each other, reducing the longevity of mine clearing erqipment on such tanks by one half. Plus they have started already weeks ago to close every breach in the minefields by artillery delivered mines and also scattering anti personnel mines into their tank obstacles and anti-tank minefields so that engineers have a harder time breaching them.

Thats not cowardly. Thats clever and shows military competence. Even the US officials admit that Russia has build a formidable set of defences in WW1 style now. And so far the Ukrainians have a miserable time in trying to deal with them, it slows them down by many factors and brought them close to getting bogged down completely. They admit that they totally underestimated the mine problem, so did the West. That's the purpose of the exercise, isnt it? Delaying the attacker, channeling his movement into kill zones.

We could have the same discussion on cluster ammunition. Flame throwers. But it would be pointless. War has its own needs and its own logic.

If we do not like them to lay mines, then we must hinder them. But just weeping helps us not.

[mapuc]

It's not gonna be an easy offensive



Markus

[Dargo]

That Ukraine launched the biggest attack of this offensive is clear, but is this the attack?

After months of minimal ground gain, Ukraine appears to have made a significant breakthrough in the south. In the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine suddenly penetrated kilometres through the front line. Whether this is the prelude to the main attack, however, remains to be seen. Ukrainian President Zelensky was pleased in his daily address on Wednesday evening. In a small aside at the end, he focused attention on the battlefield: 'By the way, our boys at the front have achieved very good results today. Well done. More details will follow later.' It was a remarkably optimistic message after weeks in which Ukraine had to reluctantly admit that the long-awaited offensive was not delivering what many might have hoped: large-scale recapture of occupied territory. Here and there a village was brought back under Ukrainian rule, terrain gains were measured at most in hectometres.

But that seems to have changed this week. Russia reported on Wednesday that Ukraine had launched a large-scale attack in the Zaporizhzhia region. With at least 100 armoured vehicles, Ukraine reportedly attempted to break through the lines, the Russians claimed to have repelled the attacks. The Ukrainians, as so often, maintained silence, but Pentagon sources told US media they had heard from the Ukrainians that this was the main attack of the offensive. Whether that is indeed the case is not certain. What is certain, however, is that this is the largest attack of the offensive so far, says Frans Osinga, professor of military science at Leiden University: 'If the reports are correct, Ukraine has steamed up 2.5 to 5 kilometres. Then we are talking about significant ground gains.' The advance took place towards Robotyne. It is the provisional culmination of a two-month-long war of attrition, Osinga said: 'In recent times, Ukraine has mainly tried to undermine Russian defensive capabilities.' Ukraine eliminated heavy Russian equipment with sustained artillery attacks, cleared minefields and went down trench by trench to defuse Russian infantry. Osinga: 'In this way, Ukraine also tried to discover where weaknesses are in the Russian defences. Ukraine has been very careful with its reserves and the Western equipment they have been supplied with.' So while there now seems to be talk of at least a major attack, Ukraine is still cautious, Osinga thinks: 'There are now reports that they have deployed three battalions. That makes one brigade. Ukraine has nine brigades trained and armed by the West. When the real main attack is deployed, expect several brigades deployed with hundreds of armoured vehicles.' Reports vary, but the deployment of German Leopard tanks and US Bradley combat vehicles seemed to be somewhere between 30 and 40. Moreover, says Osinga, you would need to see a much larger logistical operation in the rear, such as trucks delivering ammunition and other supplies. Without a slick logistics operation, any offensive is doomed to failure.

Should the current attack do form part of the main attack, the Zaporizhzhia region is not an illogical location for it. Stepping up to Melitopol which is near the Sea of Azov is a scenario that military analysts have frequently mentioned prior to the offensive. If Ukraine manages to pull that off, it drives a wedge between southwestern Ukraine and Crimea on one side and the Donbas on the other. The Russian logistics operation will then be severely disrupted. The only supply route with Crimea by road would then be across the Crimean Bridge, which connects the occupied peninsula on the eastern side with the Russian mainland. That bridge was attacked by Ukraine last year and last week. Osinga also considers other scenarios. This week's large-scale attacks could also be an attempt to provoke a Russian response: 'Maybe they want to see where Russia will commit its reserves.' It would then also give Ukraine opportunities in other places along the front line. 'Also around Bakhmut, Ukraine has gained ground bit by bit. We should not downplay those successes. Since Russia left Kherson, the conquest of Bakhmut has been the only success. If Ukraine manages to recapture it, it will mean a big symbolic gain over Russia.'

The likelihood of a main attack coming soon seems high. Ukraine has an interest in this in several ways besides gaining territory. Osinga: 'If substantial territory is captured, it is a signal to the Russians: look what we can do with Western equipment. And it is also a signal to the West: keep supplying us with your equipment.' The problem, however, is that you can only launch the main attack once: 'Once you commit to the main attack, you can't go back. You want to keep the Russians in limbo for as long as possible.' According to Osinga, it remains a question of patience. While many in the West may have hoped for Russia's quick expulsion from occupied territory, Ukraine has always had a longer term in mind. 'If it does not succeed this year, this offensive could be a prelude to next year's offensive. Then Ukraine will have to go into the winter with a good starting position,' Osinga said.

The West has already provided Ukraine with a lot of equipment, but large quantities of shells and fighter jets, for example, will not be delivered until next spring at the earliest. F-16s would allow Ukraine to conquer territory faster. Currently, Ukraine still relies on cluster munitions, among other things, supplied by the United States. That ammunition is controversial because unexploded parts can also cause civilian casualties at a later stage. Osinga does see its initial effects on the battlefield: 'With one shell you can cover an entire football field. That's an effective way to take out infantrymen.' Western countries lean much more on air superiority, says Osinga: 'You pulverise the whole battlefield from the air. You can also protect your own troops better. Ukraine does not have that luxury.' https://www.volkskrant.nl/nieuws-ach...nval~bc8d4972/

[mapuc]

US military veterans risking their lives to defend Ukraine by volunteering in the Ukrainian Armed Forces storming Russian trenches, while the White House sits on its hands and continues to refuse to sufficiently arm Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/statu...35700827860993

Markus