Hold at Risk

SeaQueen · 01-27-08, 12:48 PM

During the Cold War, the stated goal of the US Navy was to destroy 80% of the Soviet submarine fleet in the first 15 minutes of a conflict turning hot. That's the number that drove US SSN requirements way up because it required that a large number of SSNs be dedicated to "holding at risk" the Soviet submarine fleet.

With that in mind, I've been playing around with an idea for a scenario where the goal is to hold an SSBN at risk, with only a small chance of actually having to destroy it.

The thing is... what does that really mean within the context of DW and goal triggers?

It has to mean more than just detection, because that doesn't necessarily mean you have the capability to destroy the SSBN at any time and place. So... I'm thinking that you'd have to also be able to satisfy some weapons related parameters. Since the doctrine language doesn't let you test the quality of your firing solution, though, I'm not entirely sure what the best way to do that is, though. The other thing is that it shouldn't allow you to lose contact.

For example, if I'm seaching for my target and I find it, I haven't yet held it at risk. If I satisfy some weapons-related condition that I haven't figured out yet, but then at some point in the duration of the scenario, I either fail to satisfy it, or I lose contact then I haven't held it at risk.

Then... suppose I reacquire the target and satisfy the weapon related parameter then I have held it at risk.

It just seems like a very on-again-off-again kind of thing. Maybe it might be worth it to make several different goals, each one being to hold the target at risk for a different amount of time.

What do you guys think?

01-27-08, 12:48 PM	#1
SeaQueen Naval Royalty Join Date: Jun 2005 Location: Washington, DC Posts: 1,185 Downloads: 0 Uploads: 0	Hold at Risk During the Cold War, the stated goal of the US Navy was to destroy 80% of the Soviet submarine fleet in the first 15 minutes of a conflict turning hot. That's the number that drove US SSN requirements way up because it required that a large number of SSNs be dedicated to "holding at risk" the Soviet submarine fleet. With that in mind, I've been playing around with an idea for a scenario where the goal is to hold an SSBN at risk, with only a small chance of actually having to destroy it. The thing is... what does that really mean within the context of DW and goal triggers? It has to mean more than just detection, because that doesn't necessarily mean you have the capability to destroy the SSBN at any time and place. So... I'm thinking that you'd have to also be able to satisfy some weapons related parameters. Since the doctrine language doesn't let you test the quality of your firing solution, though, I'm not entirely sure what the best way to do that is, though. The other thing is that it shouldn't allow you to lose contact. For example, if I'm seaching for my target and I find it, I haven't yet held it at risk. If I satisfy some weapons-related condition that I haven't figured out yet, but then at some point in the duration of the scenario, I either fail to satisfy it, or I lose contact then I haven't held it at risk. Then... suppose I reacquire the target and satisfy the weapon related parameter then I have held it at risk. It just seems like a very on-again-off-again kind of thing. Maybe it might be worth it to make several different goals, each one being to hold the target at risk for a different amount of time. What do you guys think?