Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

[Reece]

Originally Posted by Mr Quatro

Might not even be over in time for Thanksgiving

Might not be anything to be thankful for!!

[vienna]

Originally Posted by Mr Quatro

What if dead people's votes get counted?
Like in the first stimulus checks got sent to a lot of dead people?

Well the stimulus check were based on SSA rolls not voter rolls, so its apples and oranges, again; also, the local voting jurisdictions are usually the same entities that keep records such as deaths, meaning either they have been lax in reporting to the SSA, or the SSA has been lax in updating their files; also consider the extremely higher probability the local records, due to the proximal nature of the record keeping may be rather more current than the Feds...

Originally Posted by Onkel Neal

Dead people have SS# that show them as dead, right? Someone had to send a dead person's submission, it gets erased and an IT teams send the info to LE.

Same with stimulus checks, they have to be cashed or deposited, just see who did that and arrest them. There's always litter in the ditches that needs picking up.

As far a I am aware, every state requires every voter to either sign their ballot or the polling place sign-in book or both; signature don't match, vote don't count, simple as that. In order to cast a valid vote on behalf of a dead person, the fraud would have to know the exact signature used by the original voter on their registration document(s); in 2016, or example, in order to achieve Trump's much coveted goal of winning the popular vote, his minions would have had to find nearly 3 million dead voters (an average of some 60,000 votes in each of the 50 states) and determine their original individual signatures in order to cast valid ballots; they would need nearly double that amount, or about 120,000 votes per state to have won trump a clear majority of the popular vote; the possibilities pulling off such a stunt are staggeringly low...

There have been only two reported major voting frauds committed that voided election result and required new elections to be held and they directly affected US House races; in both cases the attempted fraud was done by GOP operatives and both failed; one involved a process known as vote harvesting and the other involved sequestering of ballots; it should also be noted the officials overseeing the elections in those districts were in the GOP...

The reason dead and otherwise invalid voters tend to linger on voter rolls has more to do with logistics and bad record keeping than any attempt at organized vote fraud; the individual counties in the individual states do not operate from the same level playing fields as each other due to financial, technological, and methodological disparities; some places are blessed with the means, technologies, and logistics capabilities to run smoothly, and some are woefully lacking; in a great many cases, even though the SSA might send an updated 'list of the dead', getting that information into the county systems can either be really simple, just matching one database to another, in the case of tech savvy and equipped jurisdictions, or painfully slow, manual and awkward in the less advanced locales; having the necessary information is useless if there is no efficient means of implementing ts use; backlogs, lack of manpower and just general bureaucratic bungling add to the difficulties in pruning voter rolls...

A local Los Angeles nightly news program had one its "hard hitting, tough" investigative reporters do an expose on the state of the LA County Registrar and the voting rolls; he and his staff actually did a match of the SSA rolls, along with a list of previous voters known to have moved out of the county; after thoroughly checking the lists, it was discovered a bit over 400 names on the list were either deceased or ineligible to vote; in 2018, when the news reporter's audit was done, there were over 5,250,000 voters on the election roils, meaning the error rate was so minute as to be of no impact on the election even if every "dead" vote was cast multiple times (in fact there voted have to have been well over 52, 500 "dead votes to be cast just to achieve a 1% affect on the election results) and it was actually found that of the over 400 "dead" names on the voters rolls, only two could be traced back to any actual votes being cast in those names...

Since Trump made his big stink about alleged "massive voter fraud" in 2016, an awful lot of jurisdictions have taken additional measures to secure their voting systems, so it is even more difficult now to commit vote fraud than it was in 2016; after the GOP lost every House seat in CA's heavily GOP Orange County to the DEMs in the 2018 Midterms, the first time that had happened in over 80 years, both the RNC and the CRP started making noses about there possibly being "massive voting fraud" in Orange county and possibly calling for an investigation; that all fell apart when it was found the Orange County Registrar of Voters was so bothered by Trump's 2016 assertions, he immediately initiated a complete review on the County's election system and records and purged the voter rolls of every invalid name they could find, a job so thorough it impressed other officials in other counties and states who contacted him for advice on how to clean up their systems; the chances the 2018 Elections results were flawed was basically nil; Orange County had become a 'model' for others to follow...

...oh, and did I mention the Orange County Registrar is, himself, a registered Republican? Made it impossibly hard for the RNC and/or the CRP to claim DEM shenanigans...


BTW, I just recently received an application in the mail for a mail-in ballot for the November 2018 Election; they are being sent out to all registered voters of any and all parties and Independents; I noted the mail-back response portion had no individual identifiers(s) at all, no name or reg. number, just a barcode, so, even if somehow intercepted to ftry and find a voter's information, there just is none; I rather suspect the mail-in ballots will be pretty much thee same...




<O>

[Mr Quatro]

Originally Posted by Mr Quatro View Post
What if dead people's votes get counted?

[vienna]

Cutesy cartoons still don't refute the fact the Trump/GOP claims of the inevitability of voter fraud have yet to provide any, repeat, any, proof of massive, or even minorly significant voter fraud associated with mail-in ballots (which, should also be noted, is the method used by Trump to cast his own votes in elections); in actual fact, when Trump/RNC sought a restraining order against the State of Pennsylvania and its counties to block drop-off boxes for mail-in ballots in that state, the court was asked by members of the state's defense to order the Trump Campaign to provide evidence to back up their fraud claims:


ORDERGRANTING MOTIONS TO COMPEL [ECF 366, ECF 368] --

https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/...o%20Compel.pdf

2) As to the motion to compel filed by the Sierra Club Intervenors [ECF 368], the Court finds that instances of voter fraud are relevant to the claims and defenses in this case, particularly since Plaintiffs are reserving their right to introduce such evidence or retain an expert regarding the same. Plaintiffs shall produce such evidence in their possession,and if they have none, state as much. More specifically, Plaintiffs must respond fully to the Sierra Club Intervenors’ Document Request Nos. 1 and 15, “as narrowed to include documents, data,analysis and communications relating to allegations the Amended Complaint concerning potential or actual fraud or voter misconduct,”including as relates to:a)“non-uniform procedures concerning drop boxes in Pennsylvania”;b)“fraudulent voting resulting from the use of drop boxes, absentee ballots, or vote-by-mail in Pennsylvania”;c) “fraud resulting from the use of third-party groups to collect absentee or mail ballots in Pennsylvania”; d) “the existence and/or prevalence of fraud, ballot harvesting, ballot manipulation or destruction, or duplicitous voting in Pennsylvania”; and e) “the prevalence and/or counting of absentee or mail ballots in Pennsylvania that lack a secrecy envelope, whose envelope contains any text, mark, or symbol which reveals the elector's identify, political affiliation, or candidate preference,or whose envelope does not include on the outside envelope a completed declaration signed by the elector.”

3) Plaintiffs shall provide supplemental responses and documents consistent with the foregoing no later than August 14, 2020

Basically, the Trump campaign was being told to "put up or shut up", giving the GOP a sterling chance to make all that DEM skullduggery public and vindicate Trump's bombasts, indeed a golden opportunity to set the record straight, showing up all thse DEM scoffers and the weasley media...


...but, then, this happened:


Trump Comes Up Empty When Pressed for Evidence of Election Fraud in Court --

The Trump campaign’s 524-page response to a discovery demand turned up precisely zero instances of mail-in voter fraud.

https://theintercept.com/2020/08/20/...ylvania-court/


The Trump Campaign fired blanks once again and has basically admitted they have bupkis proof of any "massive fraud" or the possibility of such fraud involving mail-in ballots; the Trump lawyers actually and laughably tried to convince the court they didn't need to provide proof because the Trump team could win their case without any proof; its sort of like some guy suing you and telling the judge he doesn't need to prove his suit because he's going to win anyway, so just, you know, rule in my favor anyway...


It looks like the Trump Campaign/GOP will come out on the short end of the stick in this suit; I don't know why they even needed to file a suit: aren't they really convinced they're going to win the November Election even if there is no fraud...?...


From the article citing a previous attempt to justify Trump's claims:

This is far from the first time that Republicans have failed to substantiate their frequent claims that voter fraud is a persistent problem in American elections. In 2018, one of U.S.’s most prominent crusaders against voter fraud, then-Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, was asked by a district court to produce evidence that noncitizens were voting in his home state of Kansas. Kobach brought forth witnesses, but their testimony fell apart on cross examination. Judge Julie Robinson wrote in her opinion that “evidence that the voter rolls include ineligible citizens is weak. At most, 39 [non]citizens have found their way onto the Kansas voter rolls in the last 19 years.” The rare known cases of voter fraud were not the tip of the iceberg, she concluded, “there is no iceberg; only an icicle, largely created by confusion and administrative error.”

So, even when given a wide open opportunity to publicly prove their claims, the Trump Campaign/GOP have again come up dead empty on evidence; note, also, apparently no one else has been able to provide probative evidence of any sort of "massive fraud" related to mail-in ballots, much less even any materially significant minor proofs; all they have is the word of Trump, and we all know what an honest, truthful, moral paragon he is...

...now, Trump wouldn't lie... would he...?...





<O>

[Onkel Neal]

https://nypost.com/2020/08/30/michae...-his-2016-win/

Lefty filmmaker Michael Moore said President Trump is enjoying “off the charts” enthusiasm and could pull off a repeat of the 2016 election — and the commander in chief agrees.

“Michael knows!” Trump wrote on Twitter Sunday morning, and linking to a story about Moore’s comments.

“Are you ready for a Trump victory? Are you mentally prepared to be outsmarted by Trump again? Do you find comfort in your certainty that there is no way Trump can win? Are you content with the trust you’ve placed in the DNC to pull this off?” he said, referring to the Democratic National Committee.

“I’m warning you almost 10 weeks in advance. The enthusiasm level for the 60 million in Trump’s base is OFF THE CHARTS! For Joe, not so much,” he said.

It's beginning to look like 2016 all over again.

[Catfish]

"Are you mentally prepared to be outsmarted by Trump again?"
Seems so

[Sean C]

I used to think I had a pretty good handle on what was going to happen in the near future.


















... Used to.

[em2nought]

Trump should issue an executive order that if you're alive on Jan 1st of a general election year you can cast your vote even if Cuomo kills you before the election.

[Obltn Strand]

Originally Posted by Onkel Neal

It's beginning to look like 2016 all over again.

I bet Trump a fixed 14.2 odds when he was two digits behind Clinton in the polls. 10€ bet genarated a decent profit of 132€. This time around it's different. Both Donald and Joe has odds of less than 2. No profit no safety in there. Best option seems to be 1€ for Donald (safety) and 1€ for Kamala Harris. Latter gives respectable odds of 101,1.

[Onkel Neal]

Is Donald Trump starting to make an electoral comeback?
https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/11/polit...ege/index.html

[Platapus]

We need to ignore the polls and all vote as if this were the closest election in our nation's history.. where every voter is important.

[Mr Quatro]

Originally Posted by Platapus

We need to ignore the polls and all vote as if this were the closest election in our nation's history.. where every voter is important.

Yes, this should be a scroll on all of the news media stations.

Close in the meaning of which way our country will go

Left or right

[mapuc]

An eternal wonder.

Why is people so locked in they perspective Left or Right ?
(This is typical left wing...)
(This is typical Right wing...)

Shouldn't it be what is correct/right or incorrect/wrong ?

Markus

[August]

Originally Posted by mapuc

An eternal wonder.

Why is people so locked in they perspective Left or Right ?
(This is typical left wing...)
(This is typical Right wing...)

Shouldn't it be what is correct/right or incorrect/wrong ?

Markus

My perspective. which I believe to be correct, is based on my 60 years of life experience Markus.

[Platapus]

Originally Posted by mapuc

An eternal wonder.

Why is people so locked in they perspective Left or Right ?
(This is typical left wing...)
(This is typical Right wing...)

Shouldn't it be what is correct/right or incorrect/wrong ?

Markus

Because some people find emotional comfort in generalization. It helps them simplify concepts that are more complex.



I usually disregard any statements that uses the term "The Left" or "The Right" as if it was a homogeneous group that always thinks and acts the same.



People are complex and rarely fit nicely into generalizations.


Political generalizations, like these and others, tend to foster an "us against them" attitude and inhibits communication and cooperation.



We all have things we agree on and things we disagree on. With open and honest communication, I think some people would be surprised at how much agreement there is.