Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

What people do not seem to see is that the time window for Ukraines offensive already is closing again. We are in mid july.

That is not a bad thing they kept brigades in reserve and with the new support they will have a greater force for the next offensive. Those reserves will threaten the Russians, in the meantime it will be forces to keep manning the whole front line, never knowing where Ukraine will strike.

[mapuc]

I think the offensive will come in the Kherson area-Right now the Ukrainian is trying to create a beachhead from where this offensive will take place.

The Enemy is weak in that area and they have increased the bombardment of important targets in that area.

Markus

[Dargo]

Grosberg: Ukrainian forces getting closer to significant success

Both the activities of Ukrainian forces and signs of the difficulties being experienced by Russian armed forces suggest that Ukrainian units can soon expect greater success in their counter-offensive, Colonel Margo Grosberg, commander of the Estonian Defense Forces Intelligence Center (Kaitseväe luurekeskus) said Friday.

Speaking at his regular Friday press briefing held at the Ministry of Defense in Tallinn, Col. Grosberg talked about the tactics used by Ukrainian forces to destroy the command posts and logistics centers of the Russian armed forces with precision strikes, the success in the areas bordering Bakhmut and the descriptions of the Russian general, which give an idea of ​​the end of the Russian reserves. "All this shows that the Ukrainians are close to success of a larger sort," Col. Grosberg said.

Ukrainian armed forces' current preparatory attacks are aimed at concentrating on Russian units in narrow sections, and finding weak points where breakthroughs can be made. To the same end, vital Russian army transport hubs and logistics points and command centers in the rear are under attack," he went on.

The colonel also discussed how Ukrainian units have been able to capture key areas to the north and south of the city of Bakhmut, giving them the ability direct artillery fire at the city, which itself is still in the hands of Russian troops, and to gain control of the roads leading into the city. This has caused resupply problems for Russian units located there, Grosberg said.

In addition, the presence of Russian airborne troops, who have been in Bakhmut since the spring and are therefore still tied up in the city and suffering losses without scope for withdrawing them, is also exerting a major impact. Considering airborne forces are generally the Russian military's elite, with a higher morale, aggression etc. than many other troops, their motivation will nonetheless eventually be sapped, Grosberg added. "There should be more success at some point," he added. On the southern front, in the region of Zaporizhzhia and Velyka Novosilka, Ukrainian units have increased their occupied zones and are destroying important targets in the region with precision strikes, Grosberg said.

He singled out the attack on the Berdyansk hotel this week, in which deputy commander of Russia's Southern Military District Lt. Gen. Oleg Tsokov was reportedly killed. Grosberg also highlighted the dismissal of General Ivan Popov, which was apparently precipitated by criticism Popov had for the Russian General Staff, the leaked recordings in which he outlined the situation of the 58th Army under his command.

According to Popov, units remain in the frontline for a very long period of time, but do not get replaced. If and when Ukrainian artillery hits them hard, his units then do not have the ability to respond, he said. "All this is demonstration of the fact that Russian reserves are running out, as units cannot be rotated from the front," Grosberg went on.

Grosberg also pointed out that in the northeastern direction, in the Svyatov and Kupyansk regions, Russia has been on the offensive the most and achieved some success, though is not yet close to any sort of tactical breakthrough. The purpose of the pressure there is to force Ukraine to withdraw its troops from the vicinity of Bakhmut and elsewhere where they have been successful, the colonel added.

Putin making moves to remove dubious officers
Grosberg also said that units from the notorious Wagner Group have been handing over their heavy weapons and small arms to Russian army units over the past week. Some of the Wagner personnel are still located in the Luhansk oblast, but are not taking part in military activities. At the same time, there are also indications that they have started to move towards Belarus as per a plea deal which allowed them to remove to that country following the failed coup last month.

Convoys of buses with Belarusian license plates have been seen in the Voronezh region, Grosberg added. As anticipated, there has been a purge at the Russian Ministry of Defense, by the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (GRU, the Russian military's foreign intelligence agency-ed.) and the armed forces, following the Wagner uprising: Thirteen senior officers have been detained and about 15 officers considered to have been involved in the uprising have been dismissed.

Grosberg cited, for example, the fact that Gen. Sergei Surovikin has been missing for three weeks, while the deputy minister of defense for logistics, Surovikin's deputy, and a GRU general have also been detained. https://news.err.ee/1609034381/grosb...ficant-success

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dargo

That is not a bad thing they kept brigades in reserve and with the new support they will have a greater force for the next offensive. Those reserves will threaten the Russians, in the meantime it will be forces to keep manning the whole front line, never knowing where Ukraine will strike.

Reisner already said one week ago only four brigades - at that time - were still unengaged, and these had started to bring their artillery battallions forward by that time.

That means at that time two thirds of the attack force was already in engaged in battle and had suffered losses - but despite six weeks had not even made contatc with the Russian first defence line, not to mention: breaking through it. They currently still mess around with the outposts before the first line. Think of it!

The first defence line is not to hold up an attack, but just to delay it, slow it down, if possible: channel it into wanted kill zones. The most experienced forces the Russians have put into the THIRD line...

Sorry, but no, this thing is not going well for Ukraine. And the clock is ticking. The change of seasons will not stop to do Ukraine a favour.


Russia has established a week ago a new navy base and local navy headquarter - in Mariupol. You do not do that if you expect you cannot hold that ground, I would assume. Mariupol, that means the Asov Sea. Asov Sea, that may mean maritime supply lines.

I do not want to doom the offensive or claim they have no chance. All I say is that the operation is not going well and that my impression is it gets worse form week to week. What they have taken back so far, is not decisive. And I fear their losses are higher than we in the West expect.

My subjective view. I hope I am wrong.

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Reisner already said one week ago only four brigades - at that time - were still unengaged, and these had started to bring their artillery battallions forward by that time.

That means at that time two thirds of the attack force was already in engaged in battle and had suffered losses - but despite six weeks had not even made contatc with the Russian first defence line, not to mention: breaking through it. They currently still mess around with the outposts before the first line. Think of it!

The first defence line is not to hold up an attack, but just to delay it, slow it down, if possible: channel it into wanted kill zones. The most experienced forces the Russians have put into the THIRD line...

Sorry, but no, this thing is not going well for Ukraine. And the clock is ticking. The change of seasons will not stop to do Ukraine a favour.


Russia has established a week ago a new navy base and local navy headquarter - in Mariupol. You do not do that if you expect you cannot hold that ground, I would assume. Mariupol, that means the Asov Sea. Asov Sea, that may mean maritime supply lines.

I do not want to doom the offensive or claim they have no chance. All I say is that the operation is not going well and that my impression is it gets worse form week to week. What they have taken back so far, is not decisive. And I fear their losses are higher than we in the West expect.

My subjective view. I hope I am wrong.

Mariupol is for longer a supply hub in Ukraine fire line it does not make the supply lines shorter, the Russians have the outer supply lines. Ukraine the inner they have the luck because of the shape of the front line that they have shorter supply lines. Reisner can not know how many brigades are deployed, certainly not make that public loose lips sink ships.

[Skybird]

I assume Reisners sources are better than mine or what is on youtube. He also has his sources as historian. So intel and academia come together.

[Skybird]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selenskyj has tempered expectations for his country's ongoing offensive. "We must understand very clearly - as clearly as possible - that Russian forces in our southern and eastern territories will do everything possible to stop our soldiers," Selenskyj said Friday in his evening video address. Therefore, one should be grateful for every kilometer one's troops advance and for every success in battle, he warned. The statement is indicative of the difficulties the Ukrainian military is facing in its offensive.

[Die Welt]

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

This must gave come as a great shock to many Russians when you consider the state propaganda they are constantly exposed to.

Apro-Ukranian group is thought to be behind a major hack of Russian state television this week. The hack meant that millions of ordinary Russians watched a Ukraine defence ministry video as they tuned into their usual TV programmes. The infiltration exposed the reality of the war in Ukraine, as the hack broadcast footage of attacks by Ukrainian forces on Russian troops.

The warzone clips also showed Ukrainian forces advancing on the battlefield.

This was then followed with a message in Ukrainian, accompanied by the crest of its defence ministry, warning: "The hour of reckoning has come."

Following the Ukrainian military footage, ballet clips of Swan Lake appeared on the screen.

This appears to be a historical Russian reference, as Swan Lake was played on a loop after the deaths of Soviet leaders Leonid Brezhnev, Yuri Andropov, and Konstantin Chernenko.

It was also broadcast on state television again during the attempted overthrow of Mikhail Gorbachev, which hastened the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991.

The sabotage hit mainstream state TV channels in multiple time zones across the Urals and Siberia.

Channel One, the biggest television station in Russia, as well as Zvezda, which is owned by the Russian defence ministry, were both affected.

Ren TV, a channel run by President Vladimir Putin's long-rumoured lover Alina Kabaeva, was also hacked.

This is not the first state television hack to hit Russia during the war in Ukraine.

A previous hack in June hit Krasnoyarsk and Tyumen regions in Siberia, plus Kursk and Kaliningrad in western Russia.

This sabotage saw television channels broadcast an 'emergency' broadcast from a 'deepfake' President Putin.

In the fake message, the tyrant appeared to impose martial law across the regions - while declaring a full-scale mass mobilisation in response to an "incursion" from Ukrainian forces.

Meanwhile, Sergey Lavrov, Russia's foreign affairs minister, has warned today that US and NATO satellites are creating risks of a "direct armed clash with Russia".

Mr Lavrov also warned of the potential "catastrophic consequences" of direct conflict.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world...6b66a612&ei=18

[Exocet25fr]

We havn't the same info here..., today, French radio media speaks about a strong Russian resistance......contrary to the ukrainian videos updates..............!. Don't count your chickens before they're hatched !

[Dargo]

Girkin says Ukraine has a chance to break through the occupiers' defence in Zaporizhzhia due to a lack of equipped and trained reserves for Russia. He revealed this in an hour-long livestream. The excerpt from a 10-minute intro is below, while the 2-minute video is a short snippet from it.

"The summer battle continues where the enemy is now not trying to break through but push through our frontline and “starve it out”.

The enemy continues applying main efforts in the Zaporizhzhia frontline, and the second area where he is transferring reserves, including those previously unused, is Bakhmut. The enemy is trying to achieve a result wherever possible, without abandoning the plans to break the Zaporizhzhia front.

After failures of attacks using concentrated columns, since columns like that ended up vulnerable to our artillery and aviation, the enemy moved to the tactic of a complete mixing with the ground of our units facing him. The enemy has a lot of shells, he’s not counting high-precision missiles.

Due to this, the enemy is trying to destroy, and completely knock out the units facing him in battle. The enemy is trying to avoid mass attacks as he made sure that breakthrough doesn’t depend on the number of vehicles, whether 4 or 40, thrown into battle, only the number of burned vehicles does.

Thus, offensive actions are led by fairly small assault groups with the support of several armoured vehicles, and all weapon systems used to destroy them are located by all types of enemy reconnaissances and then struck with artillery and high-precision missiles.

[…]

The enemy has the ability to withdraw weathered formations for rest and bring up fresh ones to continue the battle. But we have the same units fighting on the front - yes, they fight in defence, but the commanders who are continuously taking part in combat don’t feel much better from this.

It is a similar situation that led to the dismissal of the commander of the 58th Army, General Popov, who put forward an issue that existing personnel and equipment are not enough to carry out the rotation and give the troops at least some semblance of rest. And there are no reserves to bring them to a fully capable state.

[...]

I will not be revealing a military secret - the enemy knows the situation very well, unfortunately. But even in the secondary directions, the staffing of our forces again does not exceed 70%. In areas of the most fierce battles, it is significantly less.

Of course, it does not compare to the situation at the end of last summer/early autumn, when 20% staffing of units was considered normal, but our forces are taking losses continuously, while the stream of reinforcements and reservists from the rear has died down.

This means that if urgent measures are not taken, the enemy, unfortunately, has a chance to gnaw through our defence in Zaporizhzhia. And it will be then very difficult to stop him, and no Surovikin’s line which is still in a pretty deep rear will stop the enemy if it’s not taken by trained, properly equipped, and experienced troops.

If these troops die in the field, there will be no one to stop the enemy. This is the main question now: will the enemy be able to gnaw through our defence in 2-3 weeks, exchanging his soldiers for ours, or not, and will exhaust himself earlier.

[…]

We’re observing. Unfortuantely, we as the Angry Patriots’ Club are unable to do anything in this situation. Moreover, I understand the emotions of our Head of General Staff, the commander of the operation Gerasimov, when “some” army commander makes demands about the rotation of units.

Gerasimov does not have prepared and equipped reserves. Simply does not. All he has is already on the frontline, at the very least in tactical reserves. Transferring from other areas means weakening them. But transferring poorly trained mobilised units who are, let’s say, covering the “old regions” of Russia, is not a solution. These units have no experience, no vehicles, no good commanders, they will be simply smashed by the enemy and no one will be able to do anything about it."" https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...34950907965441

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

I assume Reisners sources are better than mine or what is on youtube. He also has his sources as historian. So intel and academia come together.

Do not think his resources are that better. Mart de Kruif lieutenant general in the Royal Netherlands Army or Peter van Uhm both Commanders of the Dutch Armed Forces will never disclose this strategic information. Both have served or led in NATO foreign operations. They explain how this war works and analyze what is happening, but will never release this sensitive information.

[mapuc]

According to the news here
The Ukrainian have success in the southern part of the country.

This made me remember my last comment about their upcoming offensive
Which I believe will come in the Kherson area.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

According to the news here
The Ukrainian have success in the southern part of the country.

This made me remember my last comment about their upcoming offensive
Which I believe will come in the Kherson area.

Markus

There are reports that near Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine forces having surged and liberated a chunk of the Russian trench line if this is true this is pretty significant when you control this area and this entire trench line.

[mapuc]

Taking the news I read and hear I say the Russian morale seems to be down the drain.

However they put up a fight or try to from the trenches where they are dug down.

Almost every of my FB friends say Ukraine can't win this.

Hope they are wrong. I support Ukraine and put my trust in that they will win this with the help from the Westen countries(NATO)

Someone wrote here- Times is on Putin side.

Maybe it's the other way around.

Markus