Wuhan virus 2020

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Skybird

My problem with those estimates, is this:


It seems to not take into account those who die with a health condition that before would have been survived - when these patients do not get treatment because the hospitals capacities and staff have been overwhelmed with Corona patients.


And that is where the high kill ratios are hidden. Covid19 kills itself - and also let's other factors do the killing by preventing hospitals to deal with them.

I moved it up to 60% infection rate and but stayed with Tony Fauci's guesstimate of 1 % case fatality rate. Estimate was close to two million deaths.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

I moved it up to 60% infection rate and but stayed with Tony Fauci's guesstimate of 1 % case fatality rate. Estimate was close to two million deaths.

That does not address my point. Did I explain it in a misunderstandable way? Or do I miss something? Moving that slider only changes the Corona death rate. The closer to the limit the system is stressed, or is beyond it, the more kill numbers in all other categories must rise, too. Because not just Corona but all other patients as well do not get the treatment they need anymore. You go to hospital with a hurting appendix, no bed and surgery is free, you die from your appendix. Because of corona, but it killed you indirectly.


That table and slider look like a relaxation pill to me.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by ET2SN

No problem, I'm right but I'm wrong.

Here's something to ponder.. We're ALL going to get this virus.

Unless you live on a small island with a small population and no imports or tourists. Just stay away from the bats.

Which I do I live on a little island without any bridges, only ferries and with a little population, around 6000.

And as mentioned before I'm not a social person, far, far from it. If there are more than 2 person in my surrounding, it is 1+ to many.

Home it's only me and my little cat.

Markus

[Rockstar]

I'm just listening to our man Tony Fauci here in the U.S. If we play our cards right which I do believe we are (finally), he estimated the case fatality rate closer to 1% here in the United States.



I have absolutely no idea nor do I even dare guess what it could be in the E.U. Having twice the population we do you all are packed in over there like sardines. But if it makes you feel better you all will probably have closer to 100% infection and 30% case fatality rate.

[mapuc]

The biggest problem isn't those who do as told, but the rest around 10 % who either doesn't care or do not have followed what the news program have told them.

It was on the Danish news on news at 12. Where they said X-thousand of Italians had been caught despite they was not allowed to go outside.

Markus

[Mr Quatro]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Which I do I live on a little island without any bridges, only ferries and with a little population, around 6000.

And as mentioned before I'm not a social person, far, far from it. If there are more than 2 person in my surrounding, it is 1+ to many.

Home it's only me and my little cat.

Markus

I didn't know that ... years of interaction and I did not know that

What else do we not know about each other ... you should put a picture up of where you live ... Like Reece did he has a really nice place in the country over in Australia, but no one would've known it without his posting the picture.

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/sho...d.php?t=227664

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

I'm just listening to our man Tony Fauci here in the U.S. If we play our cards right which I do believe we are (finally), he estimated the case fatality rate closer to 1% here in the United States.



I have absolutely no idea nor do I even dare guess what it could be in the E.U. Having twice the population we do you all are packed in over there like sardines. But if it makes you feel better you all will probably have closer to 100% infection and 30% case fatality rate.

You do not get my point. I am not about the fatlity rate of Corona alone.



You have a car accident. You need surgery, yiou bleed. They brign you to hospital,. it says no, thexy ask int he seocnd one, they say no, a third one: iots a no, they brign you nto the fourth one, two hours later, your blood loss is critical. They roll you inot a floor, and let you lie there since that is all they can do. Suzrgeons are out, nurses are short i n supply, ther eis no ventilator, the ER rooms are turned into isolation r ooms for corona patients. You die.


Does this count as a rais ei the Corona fatility rate? No. But nevcertheless it is Corona that has killed you, indirectly. Because it was Corona that has knocked out your health system.


And it will knock it out, you better believe that. It will knocks out even our system , and we have a three times as high a density of beds per 1000 people than you have in the US, and an even higher share of these are ICUs than it is the case in the US. But even the German system will finally get overwhelmed, because we started too late. You started even later, and with even more disadvantageous preparation levels. They started to realise what is coming at us, and although by numbers they claim we are set up well, today they suddenly went into panic mode and said they want to double the number of ICUs in Germany until the end of the year (which means they also forsee that this crisis will last deep into the next year at least, if not longer). Well, better late than never. The German fatality rate currently is low, so some thigns seem to be donen right, too. But this can change any time. I expect everything being possibkle, we do not know this virus yet.


You need to multiply the fatilities from corona with an unknown factor to represent the indirect kills form corona as well.

[Jimbuna]

The number of people in the UK who have tested positive for coronavirus has hit nearly 2,000 - the biggest single day jump since the outbreak began.

The Department of Health and Social care said 1,950 had been diagnosed with the virus since the outbreak began, an increase of 407 since yesterday .

Shortly before the new total was announced, the Government’s chief scientific adviser said around 55,000 people in the UK were estimated to have Covid-19.

[u crank]

Originally Posted by ET2SN

Here's something to ponder.. We're ALL going to get this virus. That's how they work. You'll either catch a mild form of it and feel like crap for a while before you recover, or you'll get sick enough to spend some time in a hospital, or you'll get the vaccine once it becomes available- but no matter what, you WILL catch this virus.

Originally Posted by Skybird

So FLATTEN THAT DAMN CURVE

I couldn't agree more. We are spending money, time and resources in the wrong area. This virus is going to go everywhere regardless of quarantines. All effort should be spent protecting and caring for those we know for certain are going to be fatalities. The foolishness of the present course can be summed up in this scenario.

A reasonably healthy guy starts feeling flu like symptoms and goes to a clinic/hospital and asks to be tested for the COVID-19 virus. The test is done and it shows that the guy does not have the virus. He is told he probably has the flu or a bad cold. On the way home he goes to the local supermarket to buy, oh let's say toilet paper. While there he meets and talks to a friend who is also fairly healthy and just happens to have the virus. The tested guy is infected. The tested guy goes on his merry way confident that he is alright and infects dozens of other people.

Yea ...flatten the damn curve.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

The biggest problem isn't those who do as told, but the rest around 10 % who either doesn't care or do not have followed what the news program have told them.

It was on the Danish news on news at 12. Where they said X-thousand of Italians had been caught despite they was not allowed to go outside.

Markus

Amen to that. I still see so many antisocial apes behaving like retards on a biological wepaon amok run. Thats why I want that dman curfew coming, better last week than tomorrow. Instead, the govenrment sitll plays pedagocial educasiton games. In Berlin, public fairgrounds are left open, but parents (there are no mothers and fathers anymore, just parents), should explain their kids and talk with them about how important it is that they keep two meters distance tpo the other kids. Well. Tell that a 6 year old. Idiots. The senate, not the kids I mean. Kids are just kids. Kids do what kids are. forgetting the lecture and keep on plying, not caring for anythging. Or they care, that the playing is ruined.



Berlin. Why do I even get hot over it. Berlin is berlin, that explains it all. No other senate or federal govenrment amongst the sixteen states is more incompetent than this one, and it is like this sinc the 80s at least, probably also already earlier.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Mr Quatro

I didn't know that ... years of interaction and I did not know that

What else do we not know about each other ... you should put a picture up of where you live ... Like Reece did he has a really nice place in the country over in Australia, but no one would've known it without his posting the picture.

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/sho...d.php?t=227664

I live on an island called Aeroe island and almost in the middle of the island in a little town with a population around 360 (2018)

I have a house with a big garden...then there is my lawn, less than half the size as a football field.

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by u crank

.flatten the damn curve.

Lest repeat that for the slow ones, and translates again what it means. Flatten the curve, that means: fight a battle to keep the number of corona patients in clincs below a treshhold level that marks when clinics are ov erwhlemned and have no more free capacities for other deseases which are not corona. Hospitals must k,eep some cpapackities open to reatc to accidents, an so many others poatients. If corona consumes all these reserves, than the system must leave everbyod else and more corona poateints without help. And so people must die that otherwise could be saved.


Help flatten the curve. EVERYBODY. How you do that? Stay at home. Bcome dissocial. Do not elak around. Do not meet people. Isolate even if you have no symptoms and think you are healthy (mind you, incubation can be anythign ebtween 2 and 12 or even 14 days).



Thats why a total lock down is so important. And it must be vigorously enforced.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

I live on an island called Aeroe island and almost in the middle of the island in a little town with a population around 360 (2018)

I have a house with a big garden...then there is my lawn, less than half the size as a football field.

Markus

Stay at home nevertehless. Tiny village, I understand. Still, just one zombie is enough to ruin it all for you all. You all out there should stay at home, like everbyody else. If you think you are out of reach of it due to your location, you already went into the trap. Or sweating hand of infected strokes fur of pet well, same story, more or less, pet goes home, owner strokes pet... you know how the story could end.



Heck, even people who went through it, survived and are immune - still can spread it!!!!! Via smear infections, even your beloved pets can spread it. Dogs licks sweating hand of infested, goes to his master, licks his hand, hands goes to face around the mouth or eye or nose, and Booom!.

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by mapuc

I live on an island called Aeroe island and almost in the middle of the island in a little town with a population around 360 (2018)
I have a house with a big garden...then there is my lawn, less than half the size as a football field.Markus

This is a very nice island, we have stopped there several times at Aeroskoebing harbour or Marstal overnight when sailing. I remember the houses have very nicely carved and colourful doors

[Skybird]

Report from the front, German section (not a video, just a screenie):





WE WILL STAY HERE FOR YOU!!!


PLEASE YOU STAY AT HOME FOR US!!!




Your place in this fight is your couch. Stay the **** at home. Is this really too much asked for?