Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Jimbuna]

In 2002, Germany sold 23 MiG-29 fighters to Poland.

So 23 max.

[Skybird]

DW said so far 5 ex-German Migs are to be delivered. Whether later it could become more, they did not say.



Say what you want, but at least by the looks the Fulcrum is one of the absolutely sexiest fighters ever made. I am still melting away when seeing them.

[mapuc]

Thank you for your answer..it triggered another question, which I search to find the answer

Ukraine has lost roughly 60 aircraft so far since Russia’s renewed invasion of the country in February 2022, while the Russians have lost more than 70, according to the top U.S. Air Force commander for Europe. After Russia’s larger air force failed to establish air superiority in the early days of the war, the air picture has turned into a mutually denied environment, Gen. James B. Hecker said March 6 at the AFA Warfare Symposium

https://www.airandspaceforces.com/uk...n-hecker-says/

Markus

[Jimbuna]

The suspect in the leaking of highly sensitive US defence and intelligence documents is named as Jack Teixeira, US officials tell CBS News.

The New York Times earlier reported that the leader of an online gaming chat group where the files leaked in recent months had the same name.

The paper said he is a 21-year-old member of the intelligence wing of the Massachusetts Air National Guard.

Its report did not identify Mr Teixeira as the alleged leaker.

[Jimbuna]

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

The suspect in the leaking of highly sensitive US defence and intelligence documents is named as Jack Teixeira, US officials tell CBS News.

The New York Times earlier reported that the leader of an online gaming chat group where the files leaked in recent months had the same name.

The paper said he is a 21-year-old member of the intelligence wing of the Massachusetts Air National Guard.

Its report did not identify Mr Teixeira as the alleged leaker.

A 21-year-old US Air Force National Guard employee has been arrested over the leak of highly sensitive US defence and intelligence documents. Jack Teixeira is reported to be the leader of an online gaming chat group in Discord (a social media platform popular with gamers) where the files leaked in recent months.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Skybird

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...ked-documents/

It seems to me they are close to identify and arrest the source of these leaks? Apparently an attention seeking, bored, racist, and devout gun nut.

Hang, draw and quarter him! Its no whistleblower warning the public of a threat from or a crime committed by its own government, but its simple treason.

So they got him.

Embarrassing, embarrassing for the institutions involved. First that the leak even happened and under these circumstances, and then that a newspaper got closer and earlier to the suspect than the investigating authorities.

He will probably get sued under the Espionage Act. If I understood correctly what I red about that two days ago, then the penalties per leaked document could mount up quickly and give him a state-sponsored holiday in a nice room without a view for the rest of this life and after his reincarnation for the following three or four lives as well.

I am almost sad for him a bit, he was no hostile spy, just a messed up teenager who got put into a uniform way too early in his life and did not had his life under control, it seems. Well. When I was 14 or 15, I almost fell for a couple who in fact were Moon sect recruiters. We do not get born ripe, mature, reasonable, responsible, but we hopefull become that with growing age. Maybe we should look closer who it is that we put into a uniform, and at what age - and let play with weapons.

[Skybird]

The leaked documents showed, according to the NYT, that last autu mn a Russian interceptor almost shot down a British RC-135 over the Black Sea. German media quote the Times with that the Russian pilot misunderstood orders he got via radio and indeed pressed the button, but that the missile did not launch due to technical malfunction.

One can only speculate how the story would have unfolded in the event of the Rivet Joint with a crew of over 30 being shot down and all lives lost. This is the one scenario that everybody, probably also the Russians, fear: war between Russia and NATO by accident or mishap or misunderstanding.

In my opinion such an act could not have gone by without very serious military reaction. After all Russia has no right to be where it now is in the Ukriane, and to wage this war of attack. If they open fire on NATO units, intentionally or accidentally, then so be it and so let things go the way they must. If the Russians do not want that ascenairo, then they should stop what they do and piss off and out of this war they have initiated.

------

Washington has put Hungary on a sanction list due to its Russia-supportive political course. Orban recently signed new deals with Russia over gas and/or oil and voiced his intention to increase his trading with Russia.

-------

Rasputitia, rain and mud season, has started unusually early this year, and has delayed the plans for an Ukrainian offensive. By past patterns of how Rasputitia fades out and the country gets dry again, it is likely that this means the soil on the grounds Ukraine must attack first in an advance dries earlier than the regions where the Russians have much, most of thier heavy armour. So this delay has a chance to actually work for the advantage of the Ukraine once their offensive starts. However, it gives Russia more time to prepare, of course. Things could be delayed further until late May.

No matter what, a Ukrainian success from this offensive is anything but certain, I fear. Possible a success is - but not to be taken for granted, its not even the most likely outcome, imo. It could give them some regional gains here and there, nevertheless ending in a stalemate again.

-----------

Ukraine fears to lose its camera drone advantage, since the Russians use Chinese camera drones as well now, like the Ukrainians. It could be that the Russians chose to use electronic warfare to deny the use of such drones in general - for themselves and for the ukrainians. That loss may affect both sides, but for the Ukrainians it is far more decisive a loss.

If the war drags on in trench and artillery warfare like now, its good for Russia and bad for Ukraine. If the war can be turned into a highly mobile manouver war again, then the Ukrainians can win the upper hand over the Russians.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by Skybird

So they got him.

Embarrassing, embarrassing for the institutions involved. First that the leak even happened and under these circumstances, and then that a newspaper got closer and earlier to the suspect than the investigating authorities.

He will probably get sued under the Espionage Act. If I understood correctly what I red about that two days ago, then the penalties per leaked document could mount up quickly and give him a state-sponsored holiday in a nice room without a view for the rest of this life and after his reincarnation for the following three or four lives as well.

I am almost sad for him a bit, he was no hostile spy, just a messed up teenager who got put into a uniform way too early in his life and did not had his life under control, it seems. Well. When I was 14 or 15, I almost fell for a couple who in fact were Moon sect recruiters. We do not get born ripe, mature, reasonable, responsible, but we hopefull become that with growing age. Maybe we should look closer who it is that we put into a uniform, and at what age - and let play with weapons.

There's a picture of him and a video of his arrest here:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-65271302

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

The leaked documents showed, according to the NYT, that last autu mn a Russian interceptor almost shot down a British RC-135 over the Black Sea. German media quote the Times with that the Russian pilot misunderstood orders he got via radio and indeed pressed the button, but that the missile did not launch due to technical malfunction.

One can only speculate how the story would have unfolded in the event of the Rivet Joint with a crew of over 30 being shot down and all lives lost. This is the one scenario that everybody, probably also the Russians, fear: war between Russia and NATO by accident or mishap or misunderstanding.

In my opinion such an act could not have gone by without very serious military reaction. After all Russia has no right to be where it now is in the Ukriane, and to wage this war of attack. If they open fire on NATO units, intentionally or accidentally, then so be it and so let things go the way they must. If the Russians do not want that ascenairo, then they should stop what they do and piss off and out of this war they have initiated.

------

Washington has put Hungary on a sanction list due to its Russia-supportive political course. Orban recently signed new deals with Russia over gas and/or oil and voiced his intention to increase his trading with Russia.

-------

Rasputitia, rain and mud season, has started unusually early this year, and has delayed the plans for an Ukrainian offensive. By past patterns of how Rasputitia fades out and the country gets dry again, it is likely that this means the soil on the grounds Ukraine must attack first in an advance dries earlier than the regions where the Russians have much, most of thier heavy armour. So this delay has a chance to actually work for the advantage of the Ukraine once their offensive starts. However, it gives Russia more time to prepare, of course. Things could be delayed further until late May.

No matter what, a Ukrainian success from this offensive is anything but certain, I fear. Possible a success is - but not to be taken for granted, its not even the most likely outcome, imo. It could give them some regional gains here and there, nevertheless ending in a stalemate again.

-----------

Ukraine fears to lose its camera drone advantage, since the Russians use Chinese camera drones as well now, like the Ukrainians. It could be that the Russians chose to use electronic warfare to deny the use of such drones in general - for themselves and for the ukrainians. That loss may affect both sides, but for the Ukrainians it is far more decisive a loss.

If the war drags on in trench and artillery warfare like now, its good for Russia and bad for Ukraine. If the war can be turned into a highly mobile manouver war again, then the Ukrainians can win the upper hand over the Russians.

Worst is that the leaked documents shows that Ukraine has only 3 brigades ready (2 months ago) of the 9 needed for an offensive, otherwise no operational information was leaked, Ukraine can be happy about that. Offensive was also not expected in April, more May, June and think it will now be longer before we see an offensive from Ukrainian side. Ukraine will also start sharing less with the US again, this was already their main concern (the leak), which has now become true. Also, this all could be a false flag.

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

^ Thats pretty much how I guess things to be.

[mapuc]

It seems like almost everyone is talking about this Ukrainian spring offensive and where it will happen.

Either it will be in northeast(Donbas/Luhansk) or in South(taking Crimea)Says a majority.

My thoughts on this:

Who says it will be an offensive at all ?

If it does-Do you think they will attack in these two areas. Russia have they senses out and have build fortifications in those areas.

Where it would come, if it does happen I don't know-Maybe Denys was right when he said in one of his video clip-That they would go after Melitopol and continue to the sea and thereby cut the Russian forces in two.

My guesses are as good as anyone.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

It seems like almost everyone is talking about this Ukrainian spring offensive and where it will happen.

Either it will be in northeast(Donbas/Luhansk) or in South(taking Crimea)Says a majority.

My thoughts on this:

Who says it will be an offensive at all ?

If it does-Do you think they will attack in these two areas. Russia have they senses out and have build fortifications in those areas.

Where it would come, if it does happen I don't know-Maybe Denys was right when he said in one of his video clip-That they would go after Melitopol and continue to the sea and thereby cut the Russian forces in two.

My guesses are as good as anyone.

Markus

It will come where Ukraine intelligence think Russia is the weakest, but they need first have built up their counteroffensive brigades and resources to supply from the past I believe they were born for this Ukraine knows the best how to counter this. Taking Crimea is a false flag by Ukraine the whole Ukraine counteroffensive is meant to give Ukraine a better negotiation position, this war will not be won by retaking territory alone. Main purpose will be to cut the supply lines of Russia into two parts so that the threat from Crimea becomes not sustainable for Russia, a push to Mariupol will make the supply lines too long for Russia.