Africa - Two potential war ahead.

[mapuc]

By following the news and reading article here in Denmark, We may face two wars in Africa within a year or two.

The first will be between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia-this due to some new build Dam in Ethiopia

The next hot spot which in fact already is a civil war can develop to a war between Turkey and France.

The first is not really of any interest-Even though it can expand.

It's the second-which seen from our side as a member of NATO, who can be a problem for NATO-if France and Turkey start fighting each other. Right now they do it by proxy in Libya.

Markus

[Skybird]

I would even welcome a clash between some NATO states and Turkey. It would force 'Europe to stop eggdancing, and to clearly choose. How did Macronman so nicely put it? He claimed NATO to be "braindead". Well, for once Macronman was right.

Turkey also confronts Greece over drilling works offshore Greek cyprus. Neither NATO nor the eU so far react to that, depsite the deep Greek concerns.

If anyone thionsk the Turks are not prepared and willign to start a shooting adventure with Greece over Cyprus or Frence in Libya - you will be unpleasently surprised. Promised. The endless babble-and-appease policy of the Europeans has created right the most unwanted encouragement for Russia, Turkey, China. Consid eirng all three together, and considering not just miliutary but also eocnimic and geostrtageic interests, the Europpeans are digginbg their own grave in all these places. And in Europe itself.



BTW, nobody please underestimate Turkish military capabilities. Their forces are huge, and for the regional standard top class.



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The possible clash over the sweet water of the Nile is a dramatic scenario that keeps many observers busy since long time. I think you underestimate the danger and risk in this. It has the potential to set all of North-Eastern Africa aflame. Means it affects the Red Sea, and the Suez channel. And creates more migrants moving north. Due to heavy own engagement on the continent, China has strong interests. And it feels strong enough now these years to take off the glace gloves. Again, with frienbdekly assistance by a stupid, appeaisng, short-sighted Europe. Why america has delivere dhtme high tehc for so long as well, I also cannot understand. I mean., little hcildren read the signs in every zoo: "Don't feed the beasts." And what did we all do in the past thirty years? We fed the beast.


I have no idea to what degree the past times of the wars with Israel are representative for the quality of Egyptian forces today. They hang at Israel's throat twice. The Israelis won, yes. But just so, with daring operations and high losses. Back in those times the Egyptians were the military in the region against others were compared. Does anyone know how it is with them today? I think they are much stronger than Libya under Gaddafi, and would not be surprised to learn they are also stronger than Somalia and Ethiopia - but I do not really know. Maybe I get fooled by echoes from the past.

[mapuc]

Thank you for your input

You're right about this potential water war..I never was so deep into the thinking. Only this will be another war in Africa which will have some hours of news coverage and then....forgotten.

Reading your answer regarding the potential war between Turkey and France I'm wondering

Will Turkey be the cause of the NATO collapsing ?
(The anti-Trumpers say it will be him who will be the cause of the NATO collapsing)


Edit

Have just read in the Swedish article Turkey have sendt 3500-3800 Syrian fighters, who during the civil war in Syria fought against Assad.
Furthermore Even Egypt who are fighting by proxy in Libya can be a part of a potential war against Turkey
End edit

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Will Turkey be the cause of the NATO collapsing ?

The cause? No. A catalysator speeding it up? Maybe.

(The anti-Trumpers say it will be him who will be the cause of the NATO collapsing)

If so, he has to hurry - its just around 100 days until US elections anymore.

Have just read in the Swedish article Turkey have sendt 3500-3800 Syrian fighters, who during the civil war in Syria fought against Assad.
Furthermore Even Egypt who are fighting by proxy in Libya can be a part of a potential war against Turkey

The Turks want the ressource fields offshore Cyprus. Thats why they already now violate international law and treaties, and violate Greek waters: lesson learned form the Chinese and their facts-creating in the south chinese Sea. The Turkish operations in Libya and Syria last but not least are in order to create interfering variables that Greece, the EU, Egypt, even Israel have to consider if they want to confront the Turks over their illegal territory-taking at Cyprus.

That the EU still cannot agree to declare the EU memberships negotiations as officially dead, ended and over forver, is a scandal. That Turkey still is a member of NATO, is an even bigger scandal - and a very serious danger for several NATO members, and last but not least: all of Europe (migration, Islam, Turkish nationalism). It shows that Macronman is right for once. NATO is braindead.

Kosovo. Bosnia-Herzegowina. Turkey. Libya. Syria. Iran. China. Each of these countries is highly conflict-ridden or aggressively dangerous or a failed state today. And always played the EU a major role in making things so. Its geostrategic policy is incompetently thought out, militarily impotently supported, and a desaster by result.

[Jimbuna]

*Speaking from memory*

The wife and I honeymooned in Cyprus back in 84 and at that point the war between Turkey and the Cypriots was still fresh in the memory or should I have said the 1974 Turkish invasion of Cyprus?

I remember the British army leading the evacuation of Famagusta getting the civilians out of harms way but the pace of such an operation meant everything that couldn't be carried in a suitcase was left behind.

Not long after the evacuation everything of any value (British civilians cars for example) were shipped over to Turkey and the town is completely fenced in and nothing but a ghost town now.
https://www.holidayhypermarket.co.uk...us-ghost-town/

I had many a conversation with waiters and locals back then and some of the stories were quite disturbing.

One of the less disturbing was that Greece offered to intervene on the side of Cyprus using air power but the story goes that the US had warships in the area of the intended flight path and threatened to shoot down anything within missile range.

My personal experience was that of hiring a car but being advised that should I cross the border my passport would be either confiscated or stamped, either meaning I wouldn't be allowed to return to the Cypriot side.

I also remember visiting the then capital, Nicosia and seeing the wall there keeping both sides apart, reminiscent of the Berlin wall of the time and the buildings in need of repair from bullets and shells.

Suffice to say, I am in general agreement with what Sky says regarding Turkey.

[Skybird]

One thing to add: some in the eU still try hard to bring Cyprus, all of it, into the EU, as a full member, and whike accepting the status quo. But that would mean to indirectly bring Turkey into the EU, too: because via Cyprus membership, it could act with all votring powers and veto powers in EU decicsion making meetings.


As I see it, the greek forces are much paper tiger, huge in number of tanks, but Turkey has more (biggest tnak fleet in NATO after the US), and different to Greece, the Turkish forces are well supplied with tank and missile ammo, and their forces rotated in and out in the various military actions of theirs over the years. They have more experience and training than the Greeks, I would expect to learn. And certainly greater determination, now that Erodghan-loyalists have taken over the military more or less completely. They are no longer the guardians of a Kemalist secular constitution that Attatürk wanted them to be.



Greece additionally is weekened by its decades-lasting financial money wasting and economic mismanagement, political corruption, never-done reforms, and the general low mood amongst the country's young who still flee from Greece in huge numbers, it seems.



I am not convinced that in case of a Turkish-Greek or Turkish-French clash the EU or the rest of NATO would come to Greece's or France's active military support, or Italy's, for that matter. I even think that the US would tend to press the Europeans to arrange themselves with Turkey unpleasently once again, like they pressed Germany already in the late 50s and early 60s to let the first Turks in (originally the German CDU-SPD government did not want that at all, claiming cultural incompatabiltiers and the fact that the demand in froeign workers had already been met with the workers from other countries in the years before), and then pressed Germany once again to not demand that the treaty must be obeyed that ruled that all workers were on temporary stay only, (like the workers from Italy, Greece, Spain, Yugoslavia), and wou,d have to leave again after some years. The US plays an infamous and perfid role in the political problems Europe has with Turkey, a story that is not often told. Without Washington's interventions in the late 50s-early 60s, the situation EU vs Turkey today would be a very different and most likely much more favourable one. Washington's motive was that it wanted to station missiles in Turkey and the Turks said "Only when you force the Europeans to let our poor masses in that we are unable to supply ourselves". The Jupiter missiles in Turkey later became part of the problem known as the Cuban missile crisis. Kennedy and Crushchew than agreed to pull out missiles from Cuba -and Turkey. The missiles may be gone - Europe still pays the price for the American impertinence then. This also is a part of the story that is never told: that it were the Americans doing the first step to station missiles in a place where the USSR would not accept them - and the Sovjets than reacting by sending missiles to Cuba. Without the Jupiters in Turkey, Cuban crisis probably would never have occured.

[mapuc]

I say thank you for your in depth explanation.

Which made me understand-these two potential war who may start in Africa isn't just some small war who will be fought far away...they have potential to become nasty and grow.

Markus

[Skybird]

Egyptian parliament passed formal permission for military operations in Libya. This means the risk of a direct Turkish-Egyptian confrontation.

Both countries are part of the quartet that claim an exemplary leadership role in the Islmaic world and in the end also want regional domiance. The other two big states aiming at that role are Saudi Arabia and Iran. Syria obviously is out.

[Skybird]

Turkey announced to start drillings offshore Crete. Like in case with Cyprus, the legal basis for it is dubious and pratcially non-existent. Anakara claims a treaty it signed with Libya - in explicit ignorrance for Greek territories at sea.

[mapuc]

Thank you for your updates on the situation in the Mediterranean area

It's not looking good at all.

There is more potential wars ahead than the two I have mentioned.

Markus

[Skybird]

Okay, its the Bild-Zeitung, but still: they claim that Tuesday evening Merkel prevented by telephone the clashing of Turkish and Greek naval forces in the Aegean sea. Almost twenty naval units of Turkey, two fighters, and several ships and fighters of the Greeks should have been involved.

Originally Posted by Der Tagesspiegel

Chancellor Angela Merkel is said to have prevented an imminent military conflict between Turkey and Greece in the eastern Mediterranean on Tuesday evening. According to the "picture" information, warships and fighter jets should have been on the way.

The dispute over natural gas off the small Mediterranean island of Kastellorizo ​​has been smoldering for some time. Since Tuesday, however, numerous ships of the Turkish Navy have been moving in the Aegean and in the eastern Mediterranean south of the Greek islands of Rhodes and Crete.

Numerous ships of the Greek Navy are also in the region, as reported by the Greek state television. As the office of Greece's Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis announced on Wednesday, Prime Minister Chancellor Merkel had informed the phone about the reasons for these movements.

The Turkish authorities had announced that the research ship Oruc Reis would start new seismic surveys in the eastern Mediterranean starting on Tuesday - south of the small Greek island of Kastellorizo.

The island is located three kilometers from the Turkish south coast. It is believed that the seabeds in this region are particularly rich in raw materials, which is why both Turkey and Greece should claim the surrounding waters as an "exclusive economic zone".

In addition to ships of the Navy, the “Bild” reports that two fighter jets from the Turkish Air Force Kastellorizo ​​were also flown on Tuesday - according to the report, Greece also responded with fighter planes.

In the evening, 18 Turkish warships are said to be heading directly to the small island, which is why the Greek Navy declared the alarm state and in turn also sent warships.

Shortly before an escalation could have occurred, Chancellor Merkel then phoned the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis. Deputy government spokeswoman Ulrike Demmer did not want to confirm that she had mediated between the two, whereupon the Turkish navy canceled the maneuver, but let her know on Wednesday "that the Chancellor had called Erdogan on the phone." "She was also standing with Mr. Mitsotakis Exchange, "continued Demmer. It was about the situation in the eastern Mediterranean.

The deputy spokesman for the Federal Foreign Office, Christofer Burger, referred journalists to statements by Foreign Minister Maas in Athens on Tuesday. There he once again put forward the Federal Government's stance that "progress in EU-Turkey relations is only possible if Ankara refrains from provocations in the eastern Mediterranean". At the same time, the EU must remain in discussion with the strategically important partner Turkey.

According to the website "marinetraffic.com", the Oruc Reis was on the road outside Antalya, southern Turkey, on Wednesday. Turkish broadcaster TRT reported that the seismic surveys had not yet started. Greece had warned Turkey in the past few months not to send ships to the region to search for natural gas.

If true, then this one was close.

[mapuc]

For now...Mrs Merkel and EU may postpone it...but not forever.

Erdogan & Co seems very determent to take control over this area.
As I see it, it's not a question if it's going to happen, but when.

Furthermore-If everything goes bad-Turkey may be at war against:

Greece
Egypt
and France

Markus

[Skybird]

Ethiopia has create dfacts while still "negotiating" with Egypt and Somalia. The flooding of the artifical lake at the dam has been done. TV today interviewed people on the street in Egypt. They said they want to go to war against Ethiopia.



I am quite certain that right tbis will happen if they observe the situation and indeed notice waterlevels in the Nile dropping in Somalia and Egypt.



And what else should they do? Egypt covers over 90% of its sweet water demand from the Nile. They cannot afford to get cut off from that, or even shortages, right now - the lastc ouple fo years - they already have had not enough anymore.



Egypt and Somalia will watch how waterlevels develope. And if what they see is not good, then there it is - war in that region again, too.