Shortages

Kapitan · 09-06-21, 08:34 PM

As we all know the UK is suffering shortages right now and its being exacerbated in the press that its all down to Brexit, well I contest that and here’s why:

There is a shortage of drivers globally, Poland is short 124,000, Germany is short 45,000 France 43,000 to give you three European figures

Source 1: https://www.globalcoldchainnews.com/...-pan-european/

Source 2: https://www.iru.org/resources/newsro...ages-soar-2021

The UK is claiming 100,000 driver shortages, however; we currently have a back log of 40,000 potential drivers awaiting a test date for their HGV licences, this has been caused by COVID shutdowns of test stations.
Another factor in the shortage of drivers is the closing of the IR35 tax loop hole, which has meant LTD company drivers now having to pay increased taxes.

In July 2021, the (UK) Road Haulage Association conducted a survey about driver shortages, with the top reason provided being "drivers retiring" (58.54 percent) - a problem the industry had suffered with for several years.

There is also a decline in under 25’s entering in to the industry, coupled with people who hold HGV licences that are unwilling to do the job for various reasons and what are those reasons?

First of all low wages, pre 2021 the average driver earned approximately £25,000 per year, this is roughly the UK average wage pre covid.
When you work out how many hours a driver does for that wage you get a realisation that they have been duped.
The average EU worker does a 38 hour week, the average truck driver will do between 50-60 hours per week, this means wages can work out to be as low as £8 per hour.

Now factor in a lot of drivers will be away from home 4 or more nights per week and in some cases a lot longer.
While away from home the driver will be living in a steel and fiberglass box that measures roughly 12 meters cubed, the driver will also have to be his own security guard while parked up because even in secure parking thefts of loads and diesel still happen.
Now place on top of all that if the driver parks in a secure rest area he will likely be paying £25 or more for that privilege.
The service areas facilities in many cases are well below hygienic, all to often showers are broken, unsanitary and not fit for use.

While on the road the driver will be expected to obey the Tachograph legislation which limits their driving time, also monitoring the working time directive, also factoring in route planning and delivery time constraints while making sure all the time your compliant to keep the DVSA and VOSA happy.
This is without having to deal with other road users, comply with weight limits and bridge limits, time restrictions in certain areas specifically London and now the low emission and Ultra low emission zones in London.

When it all does go wrong the driver is usually the first one blamed, they are also held responsible for any incidents or accidents regardless of fault until proven otherwise, in worst case scenarios they will have to face the traffic commissioner to explain their actions.

And your doing that for £8 per hour in some cases.

But the UK is not alone in this across the pond the USA and Canada also have driver shortages, so much so both the USA and Canada have recently made changes to their immigration policies essentially fast tracking foreign drivers who apply for visas

USA Driver shortages article august 2021 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...drivers-abroad

Canada driver shortage article https://www.trucknews.com/blogs/unde...iver-shortage/

The International Road Union (IRU) (which work in conjunction with the world economic forum) Have stated the following:

"Transport companies however forecast driver shortages to intensify again in 2021 as economies recover and demand for transport services increases. European companies are expecting a 17% shortfall in drivers this year. This shortfall is expected to reach 18% in Mexico, 20% in Turkey, 24% in Russia, and almost one third in Uzbekistan."

Source: https://www.iru.org/resources/newsro...ages-soar-2021

While we are all aware of the current problems in the UK blaming the entire drivers shortage and Brexit for causing a food shortage this isn’t entirely accurate, nor is the UK alone in this problem.

The USA has recently had food shortages in some areas and I highlight some recent articles in which shows that this is the case.
I went for a variety of sources spread over the USA to show that it is not concentrated in one area.

June 28 2021 reporting on Los Angeles area

https://www.reuters.com/business/str...us-2021-06-28/

July 2021 reporting on South Carolina

https://www.counton2.com/news/local-...ries-and-food/

September 3 2021 reporting on New York

https://kstp.com/coronavirus/local-r...foods/6226414/

Bloombergs overview August 24 2021

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...helves-stocked

It is much deeper than you think between Canada and the USA right now in terms of food shortages, yes some states in the USA have some shortages but they do have one key thing Europe doesn’t and that is substantial farm lands and a larger geographical land mass with a population less than Europe.

Therefore blaming everything on brexit isn't the right thing when the evidence shows its not entirely down to brexit for food and driver shortages its due to largely to world events and trends that's affecting global shortages and its not just the UK that is suffering as demonstrated.

Such shortages are also exacerbated because shipping containers which are currently stacked up in China Europe and the USA are unable to be forwarded or filled due to lack of ships in the right place and lack of containers in their right positions.

As many are aware containers carry the bulk of food stuffs globally and with the Suez canal shut down for one week because of the Ever Given debacle it has caused substantial delays in ports across the globe, add on COVID and port shut downs due to this means container traffic has come pretty close to a complete standstill, not to mention containers that are also currently stuck at sea awaiting berthing.

The global network of container ships is at least 4-6 weeks behind schedule and with nearly all developed economies using the Just In Time method for their supply chains this has a massive knock on effect in imports and export markets globally

See: https://www.wsj.com/articles/where-d...go-11628104583

As for Brexit in terms of freight movements into the EU from the UK on the customs clearance side it appears to have straightened out, we are seeing precleared goods transiting without delay cross border in substantial numbers, yes its more paperwork but this was to be expected.

Had the UK gone to WTO rules it would be a similar case in terms of customs clearance and forms etc, but the UK goods would have likely moved under TIR Carnet regulations which is what Norway Switzerland Ukraine Kazakhstan Belarus and Iran among others use to come into and out of Europe daily and they do this without delays, so naturally this was always a possibility for the UK as well.

In summing up the Driver, Container and food shortages are not just persistent in the UK, but as demonstrated this is clearly a global problem in road transport as well as the shipping industry.
I believe this current situation highlights key fundamental problems using the Just in time method in some cases, but overall once world trade returns to a stable platform we can chalk this up as experience.

Acknowledging that Brexit has caused some issues which should have been expected I do not think Brexit is the sole reason for the problems the UK because other nations are facing the same issues right now in their supply chains, and transport systems.

Catfish · 09-07-21, 01:25 AM

Let a few rich people profit from the destruction of the economy. It almost looks as if it is exactly what England and Wales voted for.

So not only the bar stuff left, also lorry drivers do not deliver beer anymore.
Brexit threw out thousands of workers and european drivers, an additional part then left in anger. It was a big thing not only in the media, demonstrations and strategy plans of companies to handle the situation. A lot of people are angry.

Seems Ireland found a solution

Kapitan · 09-07-21, 02:07 AM

Just want to put to bed the myth about this new ferry route bypassing England from Ireland to upset brexit plans

Irish ferries started to operate from Dublin to Cherbourg route way back in 2013 so this is pre referendum so clearly has nothing to do with brexit all the ferry operators have done which they have been working on for a long time by the way is increased the frequency

Source https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.mari...launches361469

The biggest issue for a lot of workers wasn’t brexit it was the closing of the IR35 tax loophole a lot of drivers of all nationalities (me too bc lider) benefited from this yet as soon as it closed they upped and left

25,000 left the UK and we have 40,000 waiting to do tests yet there remains huge shortages globally with drivers not just in the UK and if you look at Poland who are stating they are 125,000 short Then you understand that no one really wants to do the job

That’s the real truth not many actually want to do the job anymore and it’s not because of brexit it’s because of many things but the common theme around the world is pay conditions and long hours

Catfish · 09-07-21, 03:43 AM

True, also Corona has to be seen in perspective..

https://www.archyde.com/the-truck-dr...-the-mainland/

Still, there is no shortage experience here at the mainland, maybe it comes but .. we all know lorry drivers are badly paid so it is no wonder few want to go this way, especially when "foreigners" did it before.

We have a lot of foreigners here, too, people from Africa, Syriah and so on working for delivery services and trade transports, and a few have problems with the language, but it generally works quite well up to now.
Of course, if they needed a visum for every country in the EU it would be as painful as ridiculous.

Kapitan · 09-07-21, 03:51 AM

Lorry drivers have been poorly paid for decades that I can agree
Drivers in 2018 were earning the same wage as they were in 1998 so 20 years worth of compounded inflation meant wage cuts in real terms

There’s a lot wrong with the EU system don’t get me wrong some of it is actually good and well thought out and implemented but other parts are just plain stupid

With the IR35 loophole closed many drivers simply did other jobs (as I did) all they wanted was the chance to actually earn a living that was decent for the task in hand

What we have seen now is 20 years worth of compounded stagnation come back to bite the government and industry squarely in the ass

Catfish · 09-07-21, 04:50 AM

Still i would not underestimate brexit of having an impact. The exodus started in 2016.

Of course "When the pandemic struck and European trade slowed down, drivers were furloughed. Many went back to their home countries, to be with family.

But "Since the effects of Brexit, they haven't wanted to come back," explained Mr Gray.
"They can earn just as much in Germany, France or Poland, so there's no real need to be in the UK."

Since 1 January, EU citizens are covered by a new immigration system, which gives priority to high-skilled roles.
But HGV drivers are not among the list of eligible skilled occupations which means they are excluded from a skilled work visa.
So although it was Covid that made European drivers leave the UK, the new post-Brexit rules have stopped them coming back.

The Home Office said employers should "focus on investing in our domestic workforce, rather than relying on labour from abroad"."

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-somerset-57656327

Can't expect Priti Patel to call back those bloody foreigners

09-06-21, 08:34 PM	#1
Kapitan Sub Test Pilot Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: UK + Canada Posts: 7,090 Downloads: 68 Uploads: 7	Shortages As we all know the UK is suffering shortages right now and its being exacerbated in the press that its all down to Brexit, well I contest that and here’s why: There is a shortage of drivers globally, Poland is short 124,000, Germany is short 45,000 France 43,000 to give you three European figures Source 1: https://www.globalcoldchainnews.com/...-pan-european/ Source 2: https://www.iru.org/resources/newsro...ages-soar-2021 The UK is claiming 100,000 driver shortages, however; we currently have a back log of 40,000 potential drivers awaiting a test date for their HGV licences, this has been caused by COVID shutdowns of test stations. Another factor in the shortage of drivers is the closing of the IR35 tax loop hole, which has meant LTD company drivers now having to pay increased taxes. In July 2021, the (UK) Road Haulage Association conducted a survey about driver shortages, with the top reason provided being "drivers retiring" (58.54 percent) - a problem the industry had suffered with for several years. There is also a decline in under 25’s entering in to the industry, coupled with people who hold HGV licences that are unwilling to do the job for various reasons and what are those reasons? First of all low wages, pre 2021 the average driver earned approximately £25,000 per year, this is roughly the UK average wage pre covid. When you work out how many hours a driver does for that wage you get a realisation that they have been duped. The average EU worker does a 38 hour week, the average truck driver will do between 50-60 hours per week, this means wages can work out to be as low as £8 per hour. Now factor in a lot of drivers will be away from home 4 or more nights per week and in some cases a lot longer. While away from home the driver will be living in a steel and fiberglass box that measures roughly 12 meters cubed, the driver will also have to be his own security guard while parked up because even in secure parking thefts of loads and diesel still happen. Now place on top of all that if the driver parks in a secure rest area he will likely be paying £25 or more for that privilege. The service areas facilities in many cases are well below hygienic, all to often showers are broken, unsanitary and not fit for use. While on the road the driver will be expected to obey the Tachograph legislation which limits their driving time, also monitoring the working time directive, also factoring in route planning and delivery time constraints while making sure all the time your compliant to keep the DVSA and VOSA happy. This is without having to deal with other road users, comply with weight limits and bridge limits, time restrictions in certain areas specifically London and now the low emission and Ultra low emission zones in London. When it all does go wrong the driver is usually the first one blamed, they are also held responsible for any incidents or accidents regardless of fault until proven otherwise, in worst case scenarios they will have to face the traffic commissioner to explain their actions. And your doing that for £8 per hour in some cases. But the UK is not alone in this across the pond the USA and Canada also have driver shortages, so much so both the USA and Canada have recently made changes to their immigration policies essentially fast tracking foreign drivers who apply for visas USA Driver shortages article august 2021 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...drivers-abroad Canada driver shortage article https://www.trucknews.com/blogs/unde...iver-shortage/ The International Road Union (IRU) (which work in conjunction with the world economic forum) Have stated the following: "Transport companies however forecast driver shortages to intensify again in 2021 as economies recover and demand for transport services increases. European companies are expecting a 17% shortfall in drivers this year. This shortfall is expected to reach 18% in Mexico, 20% in Turkey, 24% in Russia, and almost one third in Uzbekistan." Source: https://www.iru.org/resources/newsro...ages-soar-2021 While we are all aware of the current problems in the UK blaming the entire drivers shortage and Brexit for causing a food shortage this isn’t entirely accurate, nor is the UK alone in this problem. The USA has recently had food shortages in some areas and I highlight some recent articles in which shows that this is the case. I went for a variety of sources spread over the USA to show that it is not concentrated in one area. June 28 2021 reporting on Los Angeles area https://www.reuters.com/business/str...us-2021-06-28/ July 2021 reporting on South Carolina https://www.counton2.com/news/local-...ries-and-food/ September 3 2021 reporting on New York https://kstp.com/coronavirus/local-r...foods/6226414/ Bloombergs overview August 24 2021 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...helves-stocked It is much deeper than you think between Canada and the USA right now in terms of food shortages, yes some states in the USA have some shortages but they do have one key thing Europe doesn’t and that is substantial farm lands and a larger geographical land mass with a population less than Europe. Therefore blaming everything on brexit isn't the right thing when the evidence shows its not entirely down to brexit for food and driver shortages its due to largely to world events and trends that's affecting global shortages and its not just the UK that is suffering as demonstrated. Such shortages are also exacerbated because shipping containers which are currently stacked up in China Europe and the USA are unable to be forwarded or filled due to lack of ships in the right place and lack of containers in their right positions. As many are aware containers carry the bulk of food stuffs globally and with the Suez canal shut down for one week because of the Ever Given debacle it has caused substantial delays in ports across the globe, add on COVID and port shut downs due to this means container traffic has come pretty close to a complete standstill, not to mention containers that are also currently stuck at sea awaiting berthing. The global network of container ships is at least 4-6 weeks behind schedule and with nearly all developed economies using the Just In Time method for their supply chains this has a massive knock on effect in imports and export markets globally See: https://www.wsj.com/articles/where-d...go-11628104583 As for Brexit in terms of freight movements into the EU from the UK on the customs clearance side it appears to have straightened out, we are seeing precleared goods transiting without delay cross border in substantial numbers, yes its more paperwork but this was to be expected. Had the UK gone to WTO rules it would be a similar case in terms of customs clearance and forms etc, but the UK goods would have likely moved under TIR Carnet regulations which is what Norway Switzerland Ukraine Kazakhstan Belarus and Iran among others use to come into and out of Europe daily and they do this without delays, so naturally this was always a possibility for the UK as well. In summing up the Driver, Container and food shortages are not just persistent in the UK, but as demonstrated this is clearly a global problem in road transport as well as the shipping industry. I believe this current situation highlights key fundamental problems using the Just in time method in some cases, but overall once world trade returns to a stable platform we can chalk this up as experience. Acknowledging that Brexit has caused some issues which should have been expected I do not think Brexit is the sole reason for the problems the UK because other nations are facing the same issues right now in their supply chains, and transport systems. __________________ DONT FORGET if you like a post to nominate it by using the blue diamond Find out about Museum Ships here: https://www.museumships.us/ Flickr for all my pictures: https://www.flickr.com/photos/131313936@N03/ Navy general board articles: https://www.navygeneralboard.com/author/aegis/

09-07-21, 01:25 AM	#2
Catfish Dipped Squirrel Operative Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: ..where the ocean meets the sky Posts: 16,897 Downloads: 38 Uploads: 0	Let a few rich people profit from the destruction of the economy. It almost looks as if it is exactly what England and Wales voted for. So not only the bar stuff left, also lorry drivers do not deliver beer anymore. Brexit threw out thousands of workers and european drivers, an additional part then left in anger. It was a big thing not only in the media, demonstrations and strategy plans of companies to handle the situation. A lot of people are angry. Seems Ireland found a solution __________________ >^..^<*)))>{ All generalizations are wrong.

09-07-21, 02:07 AM	#3
Kapitan Sub Test Pilot Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: UK + Canada Posts: 7,090 Downloads: 68 Uploads: 7	Just want to put to bed the myth about this new ferry route bypassing England from Ireland to upset brexit plans Irish ferries started to operate from Dublin to Cherbourg route way back in 2013 so this is pre referendum so clearly has nothing to do with brexit all the ferry operators have done which they have been working on for a long time by the way is increased the frequency Source https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.mari...launches361469 The biggest issue for a lot of workers wasn’t brexit it was the closing of the IR35 tax loophole a lot of drivers of all nationalities (me too bc lider) benefited from this yet as soon as it closed they upped and left 25,000 left the UK and we have 40,000 waiting to do tests yet there remains huge shortages globally with drivers not just in the UK and if you look at Poland who are stating they are 125,000 short Then you understand that no one really wants to do the job That’s the real truth not many actually want to do the job anymore and it’s not because of brexit it’s because of many things but the common theme around the world is pay conditions and long hours __________________ DONT FORGET if you like a post to nominate it by using the blue diamond Find out about Museum Ships here: https://www.museumships.us/ Flickr for all my pictures: https://www.flickr.com/photos/131313936@N03/ Navy general board articles: https://www.navygeneralboard.com/author/aegis/

09-07-21, 03:43 AM	#4
Catfish Dipped Squirrel Operative Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: ..where the ocean meets the sky Posts: 16,897 Downloads: 38 Uploads: 0	True, also Corona has to be seen in perspective.. https://www.archyde.com/the-truck-dr...-the-mainland/ Still, there is no shortage experience here at the mainland, maybe it comes but .. we all know lorry drivers are badly paid so it is no wonder few want to go this way, especially when "foreigners" did it before. We have a lot of foreigners here, too, people from Africa, Syriah and so on working for delivery services and trade transports, and a few have problems with the language, but it generally works quite well up to now. Of course, if they needed a visum for every country in the EU it would be as painful as ridiculous. __________________ >^..^<*)))>{ All generalizations are wrong.

09-07-21, 03:51 AM	#5
Kapitan Sub Test Pilot Join Date: Mar 2005 Location: UK + Canada Posts: 7,090 Downloads: 68 Uploads: 7	Lorry drivers have been poorly paid for decades that I can agree Drivers in 2018 were earning the same wage as they were in 1998 so 20 years worth of compounded inflation meant wage cuts in real terms There’s a lot wrong with the EU system don’t get me wrong some of it is actually good and well thought out and implemented but other parts are just plain stupid With the IR35 loophole closed many drivers simply did other jobs (as I did) all they wanted was the chance to actually earn a living that was decent for the task in hand What we have seen now is 20 years worth of compounded stagnation come back to bite the government and industry squarely in the ass __________________ DONT FORGET if you like a post to nominate it by using the blue diamond Find out about Museum Ships here: https://www.museumships.us/ Flickr for all my pictures: https://www.flickr.com/photos/131313936@N03/ Navy general board articles: https://www.navygeneralboard.com/author/aegis/

09-07-21, 04:50 AM	#6
Catfish Dipped Squirrel Operative Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: ..where the ocean meets the sky Posts: 16,897 Downloads: 38 Uploads: 0	Still i would not underestimate brexit of having an impact. The exodus started in 2016. Of course "When the pandemic struck and European trade slowed down, drivers were furloughed. Many went back to their home countries, to be with family. But "Since the effects of Brexit, they haven't wanted to come back," explained Mr Gray. "They can earn just as much in Germany, France or Poland, so there's no real need to be in the UK." Since 1 January, EU citizens are covered by a new immigration system, which gives priority to high-skilled roles. But HGV drivers are not among the list of eligible skilled occupations which means they are excluded from a skilled work visa. So although it was Covid that made European drivers leave the UK, the new post-Brexit rules have stopped them coming back. The Home Office said employers should "focus on investing in our domestic workforce, rather than relying on labour from abroad"." https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-somerset-57656327 Can't expect Priti Patel to call back those bloody foreigners __________________ >^..^<*)))>{ All generalizations are wrong.