The CHN/ China thread

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Catfish

I'm not.
"People's Republic" is already a lie.
Case closed.

You are absolutely right the sentence People's Republic is a contradiction

However the text show that China is finally preparing to take Taiwan.

Best time is in Oct.

Markus

[Skybird]

The Neue Zürcher Zeitung writes:


It cannot be overlooked that the Chinese leadership simulated an attack on Taiwan with its large-scale military maneuvers in the air, at sea and in cyberspace. The exercise of encircling the breakaway island had been prepared for a long time and was well organized, attracting worldwide attention. The question is what Xi Jinping intended by this beyond testing military capabilities with both domestic and international audiences.

The extent of the warnings and intimidation issued by Beijing in the run-up to Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, which had been announced since the spring, was unprecedented in the history of Chinese diplomacy. Nevertheless, Pelosi was not impressed and completed her visit with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen. This came just three months before the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, undoubtedly tarnishing Xi Jinping's image as his country's "great leader."

There is a lot at stake for Xi Jinping as he seeks to be elected leader for a longer period at the congress in the Great Hall of the People. For one thing, he must fear for his reputation within the party. Criticism of his policies was circulating internally even before Pelosi's visit, both in foreign policy and in economic policy. Now the flying visit by the high-ranking American threatens to torpedo his plan for a third term as party leader.

Second, he must withstand the harsh judgment of the many "patriotic" Chinese. After decades of brainwashing, the majority of mainland Chinese, especially the younger generation, are accustomed to taking a radical stance, at least verbally, toward Taiwan's "independence drive."

Thanks to intensified military exercises as well as some economic measures to "punish" Taiwan and the United States, Xi Jinping has apparently succeeded in consolidating his position. At least internally, he can claim to have given a "timely and strong response" to the "provocation" of Pelosi and the Taiwanese government. However, this does not change the fact that his foreign policy and economic track record is poor. With his invasion of Ukraine, best friend Vladimir Putin has become a problem case, and the zero-covide policy, with its associated disruptions, has caused the Chinese economic engine to stutter badly.

Furthermore, the war games over Taiwan were aimed at signaling to the Taiwanese government that Beijing, not Washington, is master of the Taiwan Strait and that America is incapable of effectively protecting the island nation militarily. Indeed, the military exercise appears to prove that China's People's Liberation Army is quite capable of controlling access to the island and imposing a comprehensive blockade. Since the 2015 military reform, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) considers itself capable of conducting integrated operations and forcing reunification by force.

Beijing has also been able to express its anger unimpeded because Taipei has been extremely restrained. Being forced to remain passive was de facto humiliating for the Taiwanese government. Not only were the six training areas right under Taiwan's nose, but a Chinese warship came within ten kilometers of the coast, and of the eleven East Wind missiles fired by the Chinese Air Force on August 4, four flew across the island. This maneuver was clearly intended as a mockery of Taiwan's sovereignty. It should get used to maneuvers of such caliber in the future.

Of course, the U.S. was also the addressee. In the Taiwan Strait, the signal went, China has the locational advantage. The Chinese People's Army's ever-improving military and technological equipment and its ability to wage coordinated warfare give China the upper hand militarily. Even the feared U.S. aircraft carriers no longer have a deterrent effect.

From Xi Jinping's perspective, all three goals have been achieved. And of course he is well aware of the side effects of his military show of force. Taiwan, for example, as an exemplary democratic system, has probably never attracted so much global attention and sympathy as it has these days. Beijing's reputation in the surrounding countries, especially in Japan and South Korea, has suffered greatly. In addition, the startled West is mentally preparing for a possible Taiwan war and wondering what it can do to prevent it.
Although military exercises have not officially ended, Beijing is unlikely to make any more aggressive military moves, at least this year. Beijing must create a geopolitical environment in which China remains the authoritative link in global supply chains and an important location for foreign investment. Xi himself is aware of the domestic political and economic frictions that largely accompany his "zero covid" policy. It is therefore even conceivable that China will withdraw individual sanctions against Taiwan and the USA. What is at stake is the favor of the world public, but also the smooth running of the 20th Party Congress.

Either way, the military exercise has made clear that Xi Jinping has a script in mind for reunifying the two Chinas. Xi has repeatedly stressed that "resolving the Taiwan issue and fully reunifying China are a historic mission and an unshakable commitment of the Communist Party of China."

His predecessors also had in mind to fulfill this historic mission at some point, but Xi Jinping is focusing on urgency. He wants to realize the mission during his term as part of the national renaissance, but also as part of his own ambition. It is no coincidence that the pop song "I want to go to Taiwan in 2035" stormed the charts in China. But the current "Taiwan Blockade" military exercise is also a demonstration of this determination.

In retrospect, it is an exaggeration to hold Nancy Pelosi personally responsible for all the turmoil. After all, even without her visit, such military maneuvers would have taken place sooner or later. Pelosi's solidarity visit to Taipei provided Beijing with a suitable "justification" for this. After all, an exercise of this complexity and magnitude cannot be planned in a week or two. The PLA had been preparing for the maneuver long before Pelosi's travel plans.

Even though things will become quieter again around Taiwan, the time will come when the question of reunification could lead to the dreaded major conflict. UN Resolution 2758, which in 1971 recognized the People's Republic of China as the sole legitimate representative of the Chinese people, already contains procedural provisions. However, it does not address important details: should Taiwan become a province of the People's Republic as a matter of course on the premise of a single China? Another shortcoming of the resolution is that it does not answer the question of how to deal with the de facto existence of two separate and independent state entities within the framework of "one China." If there is to be reunification, how is it to be accomplished?

As long as these questions remain unresolved, military conflict in the Taiwan Strait is inevitable. As it stands, the UN is incapable of resolving the problem. Moreover, a consensus between China and Taiwan is completely unthinkable at present. Then the growing sense of responsibility of the West, above all the United States, for the democratic island state inevitably leads to an increase in tensions between Taiwan and China. The whole thing is fueled by the decidedly opposing characters and values of Xi Jinping and Tsai Ing-wen.

The only question then is what form the conflict will take: Will the situation result in a military-economic stalemate, or will there be a violent reconquest, i.e., an all-out war?

It is misleading to believe that Xi Jinping's position is currently already so weakened that the 20th Party Congress will not only be a flop for him, but that he could even be voted out of office. On the contrary, the military buildup around Taiwan has strengthened his power.

In the coming years, the following trends will become the new normal: Taiwan under Tsai Ing-wen will continue to make efforts to achieve diplomatic breakthroughs in the international arena, and more personalities and organizations from the Western camp will pay their respects to Taipei. Such constant visiting traffic will put a strain on Xi Jinping's nerves. China has therefore already begun to warn Europe about it - a trip by EU parliamentarians to Taiwan is due soon.

The major Chinese military exercise, in turn, has significantly altered the security status quo, as PLA ships and aircraft will henceforth routinely train east of the previously respected centerline in the Strait. Vessels disguised as fishing boats or drones will also pierce this boundary more frequently. And Taiwanese authorities will be scratching their heads over how to respond.


In the medium term, foreign investors still have a few years to be active in China, spared from the war. But the time bomb of a full-scale conflict with Taiwan will explode during Xi's term. The world should be prepared for that.

Junhua Zhang, born in Shanghai in 1958, is a senior associate at the European Institute for Asian Studies (EIAS).

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A blockade and economic strangling, or a war - the conflict will come, it is inevitable. The only question is to what degree the West then has freed itself from the dependency regarding taiwanese microchip production - or, with dollar-signs in the eyes, refused to accept realities and stuck its head into the sand and did nothign but feeding illusions and did more business as usual to raise more short-sighted "profits". When China takes over Taiwan and we still hang on the drip of Taiwanese chips, we can say good-night.

Time to learn from the terrible mistakes we made with Russian energy. We must learn fast. Super-fast - time is running out.

[Catfish]

I wonder what human dictators think about how old they get.
Whatever they do the greatest king will be forgotten by history at some point.
"Know when to stop" (from the Handbook for dictators by Pierre J., published 2118)

[Jimbuna]

@Sky

My question to Xi Jinping would be..."Having seen the economic sanctions Russia are currently facing are you prepared to face identical measures"?

[Jimbuna]

This is provocation toward China surely.

Congress team follows Pelosi with second high-level visit in a month.

A US congressional delegation has arrived for an unannounced visit to Taiwan, 12 days after a tour of the island by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Five members of Congress will visit until Monday, said Washington's de-facto embassy in the capital Taipei.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-62541750

[mapuc]

As I see it every politician who wants to visit Taiwan should have the right to do so.

However. With the knowledge on how the Chinese react when some high ranked politician visit Taiwan-One could get the impression USA is seeking a showdown with China.

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

@Sky

My question to Xi Jinping would be..."Having seen the economic sanctions Russia are currently facing are you prepared to face identical measures"?

I know nobody has ever seen him laughing - but he would.


Russia and china cannot be compared.



With the sanctiosn against Russia, we have not so much shot poursleves in the foot, more into our head. Noiw repeatign that joke with China?


YOU CANNOT SANCTION AUTOCRATIC NATIONS AND ECONOMY'S THE SIZE OF RUSSIA OR CHINA. Has never worked never will work.



Never before in history has the West faced such a strong anti-Western international union, as today. And that goes far beyond Russia and China.



Wanting to impose economic sanctions cannot compensate for hard power (military strength). Mike Tyson told us why: "Everyone has a clever plan until someone comes along and punches them in the face." You cannot put it any better.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by mapuc

As I see it every politician who wants to visit Taiwan should have the right to do so.

However. With the knowledge on how the Chinese react when some high ranked politician visit Taiwan-One could get the impression USA is seeking a showdown with China.

Markus

Its insisting on what is legal and right. The will to escalate lies in Bejing.

I have the impression that the Chinese think the American carriers - the prime weapon of the US navy - are no longer a credible threat to them. Such self-confidence must have have a material correlation. I read the US wants to sail a carrier group through the street of Taiwan. Why a carrier? I do not rule out that they get pearl-harboured again. And this time they will not be able to industrially outperform the enemy later on, industrially.

The times for this kind of careless behaviour are over, China is no military dwarf anymore. Sent a conventional flotilla to cruise in the strait of Taiwan. But not carriers. That simply is stupid. You do not present your trump cards to the enemy in this way. He might be too tempted as if he could resist any longer. Starting a war with the US navy with having taken one carrier group already out in the beginning is tempting. Very.


The whole "One China, tow systems" policy was a comfortabe lie, always. Its total nonsense.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Its insisting on what is legal and right. The will to escalate lies in Bejing.



I hav the impression that the Chiense think the American carriers - the prime weapon of the US navy - are no longer a credible threat to them. Such self-confidence must have reasons. I read the US wants to sail a carrier group through the street of Taiwan. Why a carrier? I do not rule out that they get pearl-harboured again. And this time they will not be able to industrially outperform the enemy later on, industrially.


The times for this kind of careless behaviour are over, China is ni military dwarf anymore. Sent a conventional flotilla to cruise in the strait of Taiwan. But not carriers. Thats simply is stupid. You do not present your trump cards to the enemy in this way. He might be too tempted as if he could resist any longer. Starting a war with the US navy with having taken one carrier group already out in the beginning is tempting. Very.

Of course the will to escalate lay in the hand of the Chinese.
burde me I didn't think that way..

One thing do I know China couldn't care less about USA. If China wants to invade Taiwan they will do so.

Edit
The Chinese do care about the American military-Only an unwise would see them self as superior.
They will however take Taiwan when they feel for it
End edit

Markus

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

This is provocation toward China surely.

Oh pshaw, move along, nothing to see here.

But ya, considering their economy is in steep decline, there are reports of a run on banks, revolt, mass protests, and the commonly held view on the mainland that no Chinese leader could remain in power if he allowed Taiwan to separate from the PRC. Things seem to be teetering on the edge over there and these visits are most likely an attempt to give it that little extra push. But damn, I could certainly think of better ways to do it that wouldn’t involve the potential for visiting dignitaries getting shot out of the sky.

[Jimbuna]

China has announced more military drills around Taiwan as a number of US politicians visited the island nation.

https://news.sky.com/story/china-ann...aiwan-12673726

[Skybird]

By the end of the story it comes down to whether the US will wage war over Taiwan or not. If not, all these politicians will look very silly.



Symbolic acts. I never was impressed or interested, and never will be.

[Jimbuna]

Me neither.

[mapuc]

I'm interested in the military strategy.

It's not a question if but when Xi gives the order.

Would China as a preemptively precaution attack American bases before they launch an all-out attack on Taiwan.

I do not know how China think mentally when it comes to the military-I doubt they would do it-Cause it would drag USA into the war.

On the other hand China can't be sure USA will stay out of it and only support Taiwan as they do with Ukraine-With the only difference-Taiwan will get long range rockets and ballistic missile.

Markus

[Skybird]

If they think the US is not bluffing but will fight over Taiwan, the war will see early and maybe even will open with strikes on Okinawa and Diega Garcia as well as - if possible - attempts to kill the carrier battle groups. Everythign else would be madness, you cannot go to war with the US Navy and Air Force and then leave the initiative to them, thats stupid, the USN and USAF is too dagerous for that. To what degree they also strike bases in the Phillipines and Australia remaisn to be seen. That they also go at South Korea early I am not so certain of because SK is balancing between China and the US and avoids to openly confront China diplomatically - China may hope to keep SK out of the war and have NK as a threat that SK must focus on to contain.



Or they strangle Taiwan by blockading it completely, leaving it to the US to try to break the blockade - which necessarily then would take place on the playing field of China'S choosing: the Taiwan strait and the waters around Taiwan and so putting every American unit going there into harms way. And this harm is not fangs and claws, but missiles, missiles, and more missiles. Sea-launched. Land-launched. Air launched. Big missiles, medium missiles, very big missiles. Carrier sinking missiles. In quantities that the US logistics chains to Taiwan could not compete with.



How American submarines can do close to Taiwan, remains to be seen, too. Too many dogs are every rabbit's death, and the Americans would be seriously outnumbered by pretty much evertyhing. Also, the waters close to the continental coast are shallow.



Nobody seems to want to hear it int he west, butr I must say: as I see it, on the military side everything speaks against America in such a war. Its lines are overstretched, its forces too few, its stockpiled quanitiesa ins mmart ammo - like in every nation - too small. And China is not a technologically inferior foe. Supply lines of Chinese units in the zone around Taiwan: 100-250 km. American supply lines - well... That means Chinese units will spend much more time in combat than American units, adding to the numerical advantages.



China has the choice. By how they hold their exercises right now, I assume it will be the second option: blockade. And maybe they just deceive us to think so. Or Xi is as insane as so many other autocrats before him, and does something against the military advice of his admirals.