Who will win the 2020 US Presidential Election?

[Skybird]

750
0
10/15


The numbers of the day.


"He's one of us!"

[Gerald]

https://www.reuters.com/news/picture...r-idUSRTX7YDWL

A pure reflection.

[Jimbuna]

Donald Trump 'paid $750 in federal income taxes in 2016 and 2017' - NY Times
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-54319948

Does anyone actually care either way?

[Gerald]

Originally Posted by Skybird

750
0
10/15


The numbers of the day.


"He's one of us!"

If this is reliable information and not a result of the left - wing forces, then the lawyers have done their job.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Gerald

If this is reliable information and not a result of the left - wing forces, then the lawyers have done their job.

I could imagine that to be a quote by Nixon.


In a sane world, this should be a neckbreaker for any politician. Unfortunately, it is not a sane world anymore. Trump has lied all his lifre long, from childhood on, and learned that this is what lets him get away with everything: lying, lying, and lying more. And America is such that it rewards this as "success".


It tells just a little bit about Trump, since from a psychotherapeutical perspective he is not a complex person at all and so there is not much to be discovered in him, he ticks quite simple and forseeable. But it tells a whole damn lot about the society that stages the Trump show.

[Gerald]

Originally Posted by Skybird

I could imagine that to be a quote by Nixon.


In a sane world, this should be a neckbreaker for any politician. Unfortunately, it is not a sane world anymore. Trump has lied all his lifre long, from childhood on, and learned that this is what lets him get away with everything: lying, lying, and lying more. And America is such that it rewards this as "success".


It tells just a little bit about Trump, since from a psychotherapeutical perspective he is not a complex person at all and so there is not much to be discovered in him, he ticks quite simple and forseeable. But it tells a whole damn lot about the society that stages the Trump show.

No, actually spontaneously from my head!

At the same time, we know well how politicians, regardless of political color, engage in trickery in various stages.

[mapuc]

My first thought.

Trump is very much unwanted, so every steps to get him off the throne is good.
So this information could perhaps been put forward to the public before, but there's indication Trump could win the election...so best time to reveal this...is now.

Secondly...I would love to see the tax papers for Biden & Co.

Third.

Has Trump done something illegal ?

Markus

[Skybird]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...paign-n1241228

The tax payment numbers are empirical evidence of his long history of duplicity on his business record. They show that most of his ventures, save for branding himself as a big-swinging CEO, have been abject failures.
(...)
Now, on the eve of the first presidential debate, Trump must choose: tell the American public that his tax filings were bogus or admit that he isn't the heavy-hitting CEO he says is.

A tragic distortion of a man. A ridiculous distortion of a businessman. A dangerous distortion of a state leader.

[Skybird]

Announced Fraud



Many Americans are concerned that Donald Trump would not recognize a loss in the presidential election. That is understandable, the President has publicly sowed doubts about a peaceful transfer of power.


But the real danger lurks elsewhere. It can take weeks until all votes are counted and the result is certain. Trump won't wait that long.

He has a plan B: He'll declare himself the winner beforehand - and that could work. The corona crisis and the chaotic American electoral system play into Trump's hands.

Trump has shown several times that he is unable to accept a defeat that has come about democratically. When he lost to his then rival Ted Cruz in the Republican primary in 2016, he spoke of fraud and called for a redial.

But why is Trump sowing further doubts about his democratic convictions just a few weeks before the presidential election? It is hardly to be expected that this will win over the important swing voters in the suburbs.
Trump no longer believes in a regular election victory

The explanation is simple: the president has given up hope of staying in power through the normal channels. The polls have seen his democratic adversary Joe Biden stable for weeks, even in important swing states. All of Trump's attempts to reduce Biden's lead have not been fruitful.

In order to remain president, Trump has to delegitimize the election. He's been trying that for months. The election will be "the greatest political hoax in history," he says.

His attacks are mainly aimed at postal voting. Because of the corona crisis, a record number of citizens will vote by letter. The massive fraud involved will "be a disgrace to our country," claims Trump.

There is no evidence for this. In the past it has been shown that postal voting is no more prone to fraud than regular going to the ballot box. The FBI director Christopher Wray confirmed this only last week.

Trump's tirades have an effect that at first sight seems to harm him. Many Republican voters do not want to cast their votes in the mail for fear of imaginary election fraud. But because the Republicans are particularly elected by older citizens who shy away from going to the polling station in times of the pandemic, Trump is weakening his own party with his baseless claims.

Nevertheless, this development suits the President. According to polls, Trump is ahead of voters who want to vote in person. Biden, on the other hand, had an even clearer lead among postal voters.
The most delicate scenario is the most likely

The scenario that Trump is speculating on and that many experts believe is likely looks like this: The president will lead on election night. Only when the postal votes are counted, which takes longer, does Biden catch up. In the end, the Democrat is ahead.

Trump does not want to let it get that far. The result must be known on election evening, he has emphasized several times. He will therefore proclaim himself the winner on election night.

Then the real battle for the election result begins. It can take a long time to count all votes. In the primary elections in New York this year, the winners were only known after a month.

Trump did everything possible to chaotize the election. He weakened the post office so that the ballot papers wouldn't arrive on time. He has blocked the necessary funds that states would have needed to prepare for the onslaught of postal voters. And his party tries to legally prevent any initiative that facilitates postal voting.

As a result, postal votes have already started in many countries, although legal issues have not yet been clarified. In the end, hundreds of thousands of votes cast in good faith could be invalid.

The more mess, the better for Trump. This increases the chance that the choice will not be made in a regular manner.

Trump has already made it clear that he expects the Supreme Court to determine the election winner in the end. That is why he wants to fill the position on the Supreme Court that has become vacant through the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg before the election. If voters don't grant Trump a second term, then the judges he appoints should do so.

It is entirely possible that this will happen. In the 2000 presidential election, Republican George W. Bush beat his Democratic rival Al Gore because the Conservative majority in the Supreme Court ordered an end to the Florida ballot count. Why shouldn't that be repeated?

Much is still uncertain. Maybe Trump will win anyway. Perhaps Biden's lead is so great that all of the president's tricks are unsuccessful. What is certain is that this time it is about more than just a change of power in the White House. The very survival of American democracy is at stake.




https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausla...e-f6c49a93e4f2

[mapuc]

^ if all above should come true

The elected politicians and others has a long and a hard work ahead...reshape the election system in their country.

As I understand it...it must be the way the election laws is made, which can make Trump take these steps and decision.

Markus

[Skybird]

^ Trump certainly is ahead of the founding fathers, outthinking them by a lead of over 200 years. A natural desaster like a trump was unknown in their times, like Germany knew no tornadoes worth to be mentioned until just recent years.


I thoguht in past months twice that Trump would win, then thoght for some time Biden would, now think its open again, becasue the hardcore fans of Trump simply would fiorgive him practiclaly eveything, and if he looses the eleciton, I am 95% certain that he will play foul and stage a de facto coup. I said so already months ago - if he looses the election, he will play foul, no doubt on that.



He has very serious issues with accepting realities, you know. Or rules. Or truth.

[u crank]

Originally Posted by Skybird

I thoguht in past months twice that Trump would win, then thoght for some time Biden would, now think its open again, becasue the hardcore fans of Trump simply would fiorgive him practiclaly eveything,

Really? Are you suggesting that Biden's supporters have no reason to forgive him for anything? Joe Biden was first elected to the Senate in 1973. Nixon was President. Do the math. Just short of 45 years. It's a hell of a story if you were interested.

and if he looses the eleciton, I am 95% certain that he will play foul and stage a de facto coup.

Let me ask you a question. Could you name a single person in the Trump White House, his administration, the US military or even a Secret Service agent who would throw away their career, their livelihood and maybe risk jail to follow the orders of someone who isn't President?

[August]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Announced Fraud

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausla...e-f6c49a93e4f2

What drivel.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by u crank

Really? Are you suggesting that Biden's supporters have no reason to forgive him for anything? Joe Biden was first elected to the Senate in 1973. Nixon was President. Do the math. Just short of 45 years. It's a hell of a story if you were interested.



Let me ask you a question. Could you name a single person in the Trump White House, his administration, the US military or even a Secret Service agent who would throw away their career, their livelihood and maybe risk jail to follow the orders of someone who isn't President?

Some questions popped up after having read your answer to Skybird's comment.

1. Are you 100 % sure Trump wouldn't do as Skybird wrote and refuse to accept the outcome of the election-if the result says Biden won or the result isn't at hand (days after Nov. 3th)?
2. You know more about American politics and those who work in the White house than I ever will, but isn't there a chance thousands of his followers will occupy the White House(they will be invited by Trump) ?

Markus

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by u crank

Really? Are you suggesting that Biden's supporters have no reason to forgive him for anything? Joe Biden was first elected to the Senate in 1973. Nixon was President. Do the math. Just short of 45 years. It's a hell of a story if you were interested.



Let me ask you a question. Could you name a single person in the Trump White House, his administration, the US military or even a Secret Service agent who would throw away their career, their livelihood and maybe risk jail to follow the orders of someone who isn't President?

Don't make a theatre again. These kind of always the same rhetorical tricks have become quite transparent...