Huge pro-EU rally grips Ukraine

[Rockstar]

Originally Posted by Oberon

Wondered when you'd show up again.




Can't say I'm wholly surprised, would have been an odd thing to agree to...officially at least.
That being said, putting yourself in Russias shoes, with a military that's falling apart, an economy based solely on oil and countless internal concerns, your rival for the past 60 years expanding to your border isn't exactly going to be received well. I mean, historically Russia likes to put at least half a country between itself and its enemies, preferably more.
The expansion of NATO could have been handled better than it was, but that's how it goes, the question now is how much involvement NATO and EUFOR should consider having in the Ukraine and surrounding territories. Particularly in a climate where most of the members of NATO cannot actually afford the militaries that they're fielding.

Russias response to NATO expansion is I think only natural. But I cant say it took much to persuade former Soviet states to join. Most probably ran as fast as they could to NATO and are probably very happy to be out of Russia's sphere of influence.

But for now in my conspiritorial little brain everyone benefits, Putin can use NATO to remain popular and NATO needs a job.

[CCIP]

Originally Posted by Rockstar

But I cant say it took much to persuade former Soviet states to join. Most probably ran as fast as they could to NATO and are probably very happy to be out of Russia's sphere of influence.

That's a little more complicated than it seems and varied from state to state. This is very true of the Baltic states though, which were forcibly annexed and retained living memory of pre-Soviet times, along with their own identity. To this day you still have quite a number of people alive who remember being forced into the USSR. But it's a lot more complicated with other states, including the Ukraine and Georgia for example, which aside from Soviet history also have a long and complicated history with the Russian Empire (as do the Baltic states, but their position in the Russian empire was quite different). For these, being in the NATO camp isn't as uncontroversial a choice as it might seem.

[Rockstar]

I was thinking about those Baltic states. But you're right it is much more complicated for others. Im thinking what we are seeing is the aftershocks of the break-up. Power struggles and vacuums being filled, ethnic groups and citizens finding themselves on the wrong of borders, hostilities the Soviet Union kept under relative control bubbling over. It is still one big mess yet to be fully sorted out.

[CCIP]

The other side of it too is that the post-Soviet space isn't neatly divided between Russian and Western democratic interests either - there are other forces there which, in many cases, Russian influence is a counterbalance against. These include but aren't limited to Turkey, Iran, China, India, and the Salafist extremists you hear so much these days. There are, for instance, disturbing signs that militants in the Caucasus whom Russia has been fighting for decades might now be rapidly consolidating under the banner of IS (something Russia seems to be happy to keep under the carpet for now, being busy as they are yelling about the Ukraine). Or there's Armenia now, where popular sentiment seems to be turning the country (if not the government) away from the pro-Russian camp, but the situation there is extremely complex and, in some ways, still very volatile (including the frozen conflict with Azerbaijan, their very uneasy relationship with Turkey that has deteriorated since AKP came to power, and not forgetting their proximity to the whole mess going on a bit south of them). Or Azerbaijan, which on first look might look like they're in a pretty sweet spot and enjoying the benefits of oil wealth, but in fact are surrounded on all sides by peoples extremely hostile to them, and need Russia as a guarantor of security against Iran and Armenia and Gulf-funded Sunni extremists alike.

The bad part, of course, is that Russian policy on all of this seems to have come down to managing instability and playing different factions and interests against each other, rather than trying to solve problems. Often with blatant disregard for the well-being and lives of even its own citizens.

[mapuc]

In todays Swedish news

(Have used google translate)

"Russian military fired flares against Swedish fighter jet

Russian military aircraft used countermeasure against Swedish airplane over the Baltic Sea.

It was revealed by the Supreme Commander Sverker Goranson in a defense policy seminar in Almedalen.

Armed Forces states at the same time to Expressen that countermeasure used was torches

The Russian military activity has increased significantly in the Baltic Sea area recently. Now, the Supreme Commander Sverker Goranson with sensational new data on the Russian aircraft has acted against Swedish airplane.

Russian aircraft have on several occasions violated Swedish air space. Russia has carried out major military exercises near the border, the Swedish JAS aircraft has gone up, and guarded.

Supreme Commander Sverker Goranson took part in a seminar organized by the Armed Political Arena during Almedalen Week in Visby on Monday. He revealed previously unknown information that Russian military aircraft have shed so-called countermeasure against Swedish fighter plane.

- You have violated airplane formations for us, it has set countermeasure when you fly like this so that it almost bouncing in the plate with us, says Sverker Goranson during the seminar

- This has forced us to go back to the house and think about whether we should change our behavior to be on the safe margins. But while it is a balancing act for us to not be perceived as we fold away, he says"

There were more- I just toke the first part of the article and google translate is...as it is.

Markus

[ikalugin]

Would swedes complain about the use of foul language next?

[Betonov]

Firing anything at a military aircraft (or any aircraft) is not a good idea.
Too many things can go wrong and escalate.

Violating airspace can be seen as just trolling, but firing things that pose a danger to the aircraft ???

не круто, человек

[Jimbuna]

Putin must be feeling quite isolated these days and what with low oil prices affecting an ailing economy, he must do something to keep up the appearance that Russia is king of the hill in Europe.

[CCIP]

Interesting development that's worth watching, although I would take it with a grain of salt as it is mainly being spun as a big deal by Russian media:

http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/277329.html

Basically, some of the leaders in the ultra-nationalist Right Sector got into a shootout with police who crashed one of their gatherings in Western Ukraine. Both sides are claiming that the other fired first. That in itself is not an unusual event - it happens fairly regularly. However, according to some reports, this situation had escalated after police issued arrest warrants for a number of Right Sector figures. In retaliation, a large number of their members fled to the nearby woods, and subsequently their leadership ordered Right Sector-affiliated militias (which were fighting against the separatists) in Eastern Ukraine to retreat from their fighting positions in protest. In the meantime, the Ukrainian military has reportedly been called in to help apprehend the figures thought in connection to the shootout.

Whether the entire story is true or not, it could be a rationalization for things to escalate on the front, as separatists look to exploit (real or alleged) divisions in the Ukrainian front against them. I.e., it could be a sign they're about to move to the offensive.

[ikalugin]

As far as I am aware it was due to the dispute between two local clans as to who controls the cobtraband route into EU. This fairly common/insignificant event:
- Shows the level of civil society in Ukraine where different mobsters are members of Parliament and control their own pet police/militia forces.
- Leads to centralisation of power in Poroshenko's hands.

[Bilge_Rat]

this issue has fallen off the wayside, Ukraine is pretty much down the list of "hot" priorities now, But I thought this was interesting:

from today's meeting between Obama and Putin.

As far as Ukraine is concerned, Obama told Putin that sanctions against Russia could be fully rolled back once the Minsk agreement to resolve the conflict in eastern Ukraine is fully implemented.

http://www.politico.eu/article/obama...-turkey-syria/

Other European politicians have said similar things, but this is the first time as I recall that Obama said it. Previously, Obama had called for Russia to transfer Crimea back. Crimea is not covered by the Minsk agreement.

I would expect to see developments in both Ukraine and Syria soon. Many analysts and myself personally think the real reason why Putin went into Syria was to find a way to resolve the Ukraine hole he dug himself into.

[Oberon]

Crimea had their power cut off the other week, I presume it's back on by now though.

[ikalugin]

The problem with Minsk agreements is that it includes a part that Kiev has to do. So in effect what Obama said was meaningless, as Minsk would never be fully implimented unless Kiev does their part.

Crimea still has energy problems, the power from Ukraine is still cut. In the end of this month the first power cable would be complete to Crimea from Russia (the process was accelerated), the powerlines would be complete by the end of the next year.

As you may guess portable generator market is booming.

[Oberon]

Things are starting to slowly heat up in the Ukraine again...could be a good time for further Russian action in the region.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37037401

[Von Due]

Originally Posted by Oberon

Things are starting to slowly heat up in the Ukraine again...could be a good time for further Russian action in the region.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-37037401

I'm half-way waiting for the news report of Ukrainian soldiers attacking a Russian radio station... With what's been going on there recently, it's hard to tell what is really happening but 2 things are fairly certain:

If Ukraine really do a bit of mischief on former Ukrainian soil they are not going to broadcast "yes, we did it".

Whether or not Ukraine really did it, Putin will have very little hesitation about launching a "revenge attack" on any radio station attacking Ukrainians, and securing the whole cake for himself for "security reasons". If Ukraine did those things, then that is very unwise. The west will take a back seat (vividly protesting of course) if Russia does a wholesale invasion.