Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Russia: ammunition plant and the Russia defence institute burn down


Russia's biggest chemical plant burns down in second mystery fire

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/russias-bigg ... tery-fire/


Huge fire at 'top secret' Russian defence HQ leaves five dead and 30 wounded

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... -institute

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-fires-t ... ky-1699970

"Oh dear. Too bad. Nevermind."

All 3 links gives me error 404.

Markus

[Catfish]

"Two Russian oligarchs found dead one day apart alongside their wives and children"

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/two-russi...-and-children/

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by mapuc

All 3 links gives me error 404.
Markus

Strange. Trying again. RT.com is currently down due to Anonymous, but the others i posted?

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/russias-b...-mystery-fire/

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-fire...ievsky-1699970

edit: updated links in earlier post, should work now.

[Skybird]

Same like Markus, your first three links are down (were taken down by Russian special agents, I suppose...). Your new ones work. Still.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Catfish

Strange. Trying again. RT.com is currently down due to Anonymous, but the others i posted?

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/russias-b...-mystery-fire/

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-fire...ievsky-1699970

edit: updated links in earlier post, should work now.

Now they are OK

Markus

[mapuc]

Tried to find more information about Skybirds comment on these Iskander missiles who had been positioned near the Ukrainian Border
"Russia meanwhile amasses a huge number of Iskanders at the border to Ukraine."

What I found was this

The Iskander-M has two guided missiles with a range of upwards of 300 miles and can carry conventional or nuclear warheads. The range would bring Ukrainian cities within range of the missile launchers, including Kharkiv and Poltava.

https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-rus...nchers-1700374

Markus

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by mapuc

[...] "Russia meanwhile amasses a huge number of Iskanders at the border to Ukraine." [...] Markus

40 miles from the Ukraine border? Should take them out in a night strike.

The Iskander types were designed in the defence ministry facility, production of the ordnance took place in Kineshma ammunition plant, both burned down two days ago. A subtle hint maybe.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Catfish

40 miles from the Ukraine border? Should take them out in a night strike.

The Iskander types were designed in the defence ministry facility, production of the ordnance took place in Kineshma ammunition plant, both burned down two days ago. A subtle hint maybe.

You mean Ukraine should conduct a preemptive strike ?

I say strategy it would be a blow for the Russian if they manage to destroy them.

However I believe that Russia has build a stockpile of Iskanders missiles.

Markus

[Rockstar]

Munitions and research plants burning in Russia. Sure they may have stockpiles, sure it could be Ukrainian insurgents or better yet homegrown Russian freedom fighters.

But I think more importantly and equally worrisome is it happened on the invaders own soil. That ought to be wake up call for Russians Putin’s so called military special operation is spiraling out of control.

[mapuc]

This is a must read

A bizarre act just days before Russia's invasion says much about how Putin's war has gone so far.

Sunday marks two months since Russia invaded Ukraine. Most probably remember the iconic meeting four days before in Russia's Security Council, where President Putin questioned his subjects about their assessment of the situation in the Donbas. The scene was surreal.

As Putin humiliated intelligence chief Sergey Naryshkin in front of rolling cameras, all he needed was a white cat on his arm, a button for a shark tank and a pair of ravenous great white sharks under Naryshkin before we had the scene from an early James Bond film with Putin as the real life version of the villain Ernest Stavro Blofeld

Despite the bad day at the office, Naryshkin is still at large, as far as is known. Less fortunate are many of the others who have failed in Putin's eyes. They are now housed in the notorious Lefortovo prison or in the cells under FSB headquarters in the Lubyanka building. Many have been arrested from the defence and intelligence services, so the cells are likely to be crowded.

A war between fact and fiction
I mention the surreal scene because in my view it is central to understanding the war.

Russia's war in Ukraine is on the one hand bloody realism on the battlefield, but on the other hand it is conducted from Putin's fictional universe. If the generals fail to deliver success on the reality battlefields of Ukraine from the objectives of the fictional world, a one-way ticket to Lefortovo or Lubyanka is the likely consequence.

When the longtime intelligence chief Naryshkin shook and trembled with fear as he was questioned in front of Putin, it was surely because he knew that the real world would not match Putin's fictional universe. He probably had a sneaking suspicion of at least some of the problems that would await.

It has been symptomatic of Russian warfare since Day 1 that it has rested on unrealistic assumptions. It has also been symptomatic that the adjustments to reality have been too late and inadequate.

Continued objectives from the fictional universe

At the bizarre Security Council appearance, Putin spoke of "denazifying" and eliminating drug addicts. Putin's goal was to remove President Zelensky and take Ukraine quickly.

The attempt lasted for about six weeks. During that time, Russian losses of personnel and materiel were very heavy. The units that had been deployed around Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy were no longer combat capable.

Although military operations are now limited to the Donbas and southern Ukraine, my assessment is not that Putin's long-term objective has changed: it is likely to remain a puppet government in Kyiv. What is being talked about from the official Russian side now, however, is the "defence of the Donbas" and control over southern Ukraine. This is probably an attempt to show success before the anniversary of Russia's victory over Nazi Germany on 9 May.

Normally, I would reject the idea that something as arbitrary as a holiday would come into play for a target, but in Putin's fictional universe, I have no trouble imagining that the generals have been ordered to ensure a quick victory that can be used on the symbolically important date.

Even limited objectives will be difficult to achieve
Russia launched the offensive in the Donbas a week ago after spending a few weeks adding more forces. Since then, they have pressed on and managed to capture a number of villages in the northern Donbas.

Still, the battles suggest that Russia cannot seriously destroy the Ukrainian defences. Preliminary information suggests that the units that have been brought in from northern Ukraine have only limited combat strength due to shortages of both personnel and equipment.

Normally, it is said that a 3:1 superiority is needed for a successful offensive. Russia could theoretically create that if they put weight on no more than three fronts and Ukraine was not prepared for it. Instead, the impression is that Russia is trying to open many fronts in the Donbas.

The information available on the strength ratio suggests that the ratio in the area is in the region of 1.5:1. The Russian superiority may be greater at the town of Izium, where they have amassed the largest force.

Estimated casualty figures from the first week suggest that the ratio between the two armies is unchanged from the battles in the north: The Ukrainians are retreating and designing attack zones where they launch deadly assaults. That is why we see high Russian casualty figures.

Even if Russia were to succeed in deploying, say, three new battle groups - roughly 2,500 troops - in a week, they would probably lose close to an equivalent number in the same period. There is therefore a long way to go to achieve a workable superiority.

There is therefore much to suggest that the film set Putin has designed for himself, celebrating a new victory over Nazism before 9 May, has helped to push the Russian generals into another misstep. They might have had a chance if they had had time to build up more combat-ready units for the offensive.

1.5:1 is unrealistic mathematics for waging an offensive. At the same time, when we know from the battles in the north that the Ukrainians have been more adept than the Russians at tactics, intelligence and logistics, there is a real risk that the next thing will be the movie sets completely collapsing for Putin.

Perhaps it's no wonder that in the latest film appearance with Defence Minister Sergei Shug, Putin grabbed the edge of the table throughout the scene. It was certainly a far cry from the self-assured president who, just over two months ago, undressed his intelligence chief in pure Blofeld fashion.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Reading it made me remember what Skybird said what Putin was psychologically. He(Putin) Lives in his own imaginary world

Markus

[ET2SN]

Originally Posted by Skybird

Your way getting to no nuclear war seems to be that we fall back and give hi what he wants then, yes?

No, I'm saying that NATO needs to be careful so we don't march into WW3 by mistake.

NATO is supplying effective conventional arms as it is. Something is shooting down those fighter planes and helicopters. Something is destroying those tanks.

Putin may win some battles, but he has, effectively, already lost the war. It isn't up to NATO to provide an exit strategy to Putin. NATO did not invade Ukraine. At best, what are we supposed to do? Everyone cross their fingers behind their backs as we smile at Russia?

Here's an example where NATO needs to be careful- remember that story about the Polish Mig 29s? Poland is transitioning to the F-16. Those Migs were not set up to the same standard as their Ukrainian cousins, by most reports they were already mothballed while Poland was looking for buyers (as a source of spare parts). Those Migs need a lot of work just to get airborne, never mind being useful to Ukrainian pilots.
So, let's take it to the next level. Since Poland is switching to the F-16, why not send those planes to Ukraine? Who is going to fly them? Who is going to maintain them? You're talking running a two month crash course just to cover the basics, longer if the air raid sirens are always going off. Knowing how to fly a fighter is not the same as knowing how to fight with it effectively. That takes experience and time. Which Ukraine doesn't have right now.

NATO needs to concentrate on what is effective for Ukraine right now. That may seem harsh at times, and it often is, but it would be worse if this war spreads to the rest of the northern hemisphere. Remember, it was Putin who started this mess.

[ET2SN]

Originally Posted by mapuc

You mean Ukraine should conduct a preemptive strike ?

I say strategy it would be a blow for the Russian if they manage to destroy them.

However I believe that Russia has build a stockpile of Iskanders missiles.

Markus

There's been nothing preemptive about this for a couple of months now.

Military targets in Russia are fair game for Ukraine, provided they can get there. If an apartment complex near Kiev gets leveled, the same thing could happen to an apartment complex near Moscow.

If I was a government official in Belarus, I would be very nervous. You share a common boarder with people who look just like you, dress just like you, and speak a common language. The only difference is that one group is a LOT more p####d off because an invasion started off on your territory.

[Jimbuna]

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken says Russia is trying to brutalise parts of Ukraine but failing in its war aims.

He was speaking after meeting President Zelensky in Kyiv on Sunday - the highest-level US visit since Russia's invasion began.

US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin, who also went to Kyiv, said the US wanted to see Russia militarily weakened.

Five railway stations have come under attack in central and western Ukraine, according to officials.

Strikes reportedly hit Krasne, near Lviv in the west, and Zhmerynka and Kozyatyn in central Ukraine, with reports of casualties.

Russia says it will suspend attacks on the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol at 12:00 UK time to allow civilians to leave.

But people who escaped the city recently tell the BBC they were held in Russian-run processing centres that resembled concentration camps.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]