Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Jimbuna]

Zelensky: Russia taking advantage of slow arms delivery

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky says Russia is taking advantage of the slow delivery of Western weapons to go on the offensive.

His comments come after the US agreed a $61bn (£49bn) package of military aid for Ukraine.

Mr Zelensky said some of the aid had started to arrive, but added that it needed to be delivered faster.

He was speaking alongside Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg, who said "it's not too late for Ukraine to prevail".

The comments come after authorities in the Black Sea port of Odesa said a Russian missile attack had killed two people and injured eight.

Odesa's regional governor Oleh Kiper said a 12-year-old boy was among the injured, and civilian houses and infrastructure had been damaged.

Earlier on Monday, Russia said it had taken a second village in two days in the course of its offensive in eastern Ukraine.

At a joint press conference in Kyiv, President Zelensky said: "The Russian army is now trying to take advantage of a situation when we are waiting for supplies from our partners, especially from the United States of America.

"And that is exactly why the speed of deliveries means stabilising the front."

He specifically singled out Ukraine's need for artillery shells and air defence systems.

"Our partners have all of these things and they should be working now here in Ukraine destroying the Russian terrorist ambitions.

"Russia's army is preparing for further offensive actions," said Mr Zelensky.

Mr Stoltenberg agreed that Kyiv needed weapons, saying that "Ukraine has been outgunned for months, forced to ration its ammunition".

The Nato chief said the six-month delay in US military aid had resulted in "serious consequences on the battlefield".

But Mr Stoltenberg added that he was optimistic that when the arms were delivered it would help turn the tide.

"Our allies are looking into what more they can do and I expect new announcements soon. So we are working hard to meet Ukraine's urgent needs," said the Nato chief.

Russia said it had captured the village of Semenivka, which lies north of Avdiivka which Moscow took in February. On Sunday, Russia said the nearby village of Novobakhmutivka had fallen to its forces.

Ukraine's commander-in-chief Oleksandr Syrskyi has said the situation on the frontline has worsened in the face of multiple Russian attacks, and that Ukrainian forces had withdrawn from positions in the eastern Donetsk region.

Earlier this month, the US finally approved billions of dollars in new military aid for Ukraine to help combat Russia's invasion, putting an end to six months of congressional deadlock and raising Kyiv's hopes that its dwindling supplies would be restocked.

Ukrainian forces have suffered from a shortage of ammunition and air defence systems in recent months. Officials have blamed delays in military aid from the US and other Western allies for the loss of lives and territory.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68923225

[mapuc]

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Sad to say, I think Skybird is right about his statement on how Russian sees their soldiers "The humanitarian cost is of no concern for the fascists in the Kremlin"

It wouldn't matter if Russia loses additional 500.000 men.

Markus

With 500,000 men Russia is against an army of one million people and this will grow with the new mobilization law. That Putin and his gang do not care that 500,000 men become fertilizer does not mean Russia reach any strategic goal they set for themselves. Russia with his bigger air force, ground force, navy and large equipment has after 795 days not reached one strategic goal 500,000 men will not change that 90% will die for a couple of meters.

Mobilize is a huge logistical project with some crucial bottlenecks. It's not just rigging up an enlistment centre all those people need uniforms, adequate armour, and they need training to get their basic skills back on track. Because if those soldiers can't shoot properly and aren't physically fit, what good are they on the front lines? On top of that, you need people to conduct those trainings. But all the soldiers are already at the front, so there are few executive officers available. Then those who conduct the training will probably also be recently called up reservists themselves. You really need two months for that basic training, even if reservists are experienced. After that, the soldiers have to go to the front, where functional training follows. This involves teaching the soldiers how to handle the equipment at hand, for example, how to drive the specific tanks that are being deployed. Here, the same problem applies ^ are those training tanks available at all, or are they all driving around in combat areas? Housing must also be rigged at the front for the fresh troops, and a large amount of food must be hauled in. Before all these things are arranged, you are four months away. This how we train our army Russian army get no training no care no support they are only prepared to become fertilizer, do not expect those troops are effective!

The quality of the Ukrainian army is simply higher, and the Russians are now trying to compensate for that with superior quantity. In the past think of World War II against Nazi Germany this tactic worked for the Russians, but I don't think it will work again now. Back then the Russians were defending their own territory, but now they are actually invading another country whose people, moreover, they see as brotherly people. Consequently, Russian morale is very weak. Mentally, the Ukrainians are superior in every way, the quality of their leadership is better, but above all, the motivation of the soldiers to protect their country is enormous. That difference is not rectified with thousands of poorly trained and only half motivated reservists.

[mapuc]

Markus

[Dargo]

[mapuc]

Whether we, who support Ukraine, like it or not. The Russians have the momentum these days.

I don't know what the Ukrainian have to do to break this momentum.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Whether we, who support Ukraine, like it or not. The Russians have the momentum these days.

I don't know what the Ukrainian have to do to break this momentum.

Markus

If you zoom out, that momentum is small they advance not that much the advance is about 1% as Ukraine advanced (that was a breakthrough Ukraine retook over 500 settlements and 12,000 square kilometres of territory in the Kharkiv region in 2022) Russia is not winning really why everybody think Russia has already won is beyond me. This is not a breakthrough!

[Skybird]

Its a war of attrition, Russia forced it splay onto Ukraine, long tiem ago already, this way eroding reserves needed for forming new brigades, and take the remaining Western tanks and IFVs out of play. Quality of troops counts less, quantity of ressources counters decisively.



Since the fall of Avdiivka they have in parts advanced 20 km. They are threatening to gain an operational breakthrough.



Recent attacks of Ukraine of Crimea were meant to make headlines. Tactically they mean almost nothing if Ukraine has no troops in Crimea to push and gain relevant territory in the wake of the ATCAMS - of which it now has accordingly less already. Its not known how many the US provided, but the reserves are definitely limited for sure.



The ATACMS were needed one year ago. As always: too late, too few.



Russia has another 60km beforte it to reahc the district borders of Donbass and Luhansk and bring there territories under its control. While Putin seeks this triumpf for symbolicn reasons ove rthe May 9th festivities, do not get mislead. Its not vital for Russia to gain any further terrritory to win. It could in principle opt for just sitting where it now is and from this status quo continue to bomb Ukraione into poieces, day for day, night for night, until nothing essential is left anymore. That Putin does not do this but instead wastes troops for pushing forward shows no desperation but that he is extremely confident - enough so to think he can afford it.



Ukraine looses more and more bridges, power reserves and production capacity every day and night, and slowly reduces Ukraine's very limited reserves slowly, but constantly. Who is boiling a frog now...?

The only way to avoid the deadly outcome of this is to rush in material and reseves in quantities currently not imaginable and Ukraine mobilizing and readying a mass of new troops, so to enable Ukraine to break out of the Russian anaconda's embrace and counter attack decisively and cut the head off the body, so to speak. But I see no potential for building and arming forces needed for such an Ukrainian offensive. l not this years, and not next year. With what would they do that...?


I think Ukraine can only hope to survive this struggle through decisive mistakes made by the Russians. But these are not the Russians of two years ago anymore. They learned an awesome lot and now are superior.

[Skybird]

https://www.fr.de/wirtschaft/russlan...-93042096.html

Economist is certain: Russia's economy cannot afford an end to the war in Ukraine [thats no typo or mistranslation, Skybird]

Russia's economy is benefiting from the war in Ukraine - and is dependent on it at the same time. Putin cannot afford an end - according to one economist.

Moscow - Russia's economy is growing - despite the war in Ukraine and sanctions. According to the Kremlin, gross domestic product rose by 5.5 percent in the third quarter of 2023 compared to the previous year. According to a forecast by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, growth will still amount to 2.8 percent in 2024. According to experts, the Russian economy is not growing despite the war, but because of the war, on which the economy is already dependent. Economist Renaud Foucart is therefore convinced: “It is a war that Russia cannot afford to lose.”

“The war in Ukraine is the most important driver of Russian economic growth,” the economist from Lancaster University stated in an article for The Conversation. Business Insider first reported on this. Foucart points to the transformation that the Russian economy has undergone as a result of the war. The state itself spends 40 percent of its budget on the war.

According to the economist, soldiers' pay, expenditure on ammunition, tanks, aircraft and compensation for wounded or fallen soldiers also contribute to Russia's gross domestic product. Other reasons for the country's resilience include the regulation of foreign companies, which makes it almost impossible to withdraw money from Russia, the circumvention of sanctions and trade via third countries. Oil and gas exports also remain an important source of income.

Other areas of the Russian economy, on the other hand, suffered from the ongoing war. According to the report, there is a shortage of labor, as young skilled workers are either fleeing the country or being drafted. According to Foucart, Russia lacks five million skilled workers. There is also a lack of direct investment in the country, which fell by 8.7 billion dollars in the first three quarters of 2023.

Even a possible victory against Ukraine would not help Russia, according to the economist. It could not afford to rebuild and secure Ukraine. The costs would be too high and Russia would remain largely isolated from the rest of the world market. As a result, the country could “at best hope to become a junior partner that is completely dependent on China”, writes Foucart.

“A protracted stalemate could be the only solution for Russia to avoid a total economic collapse,” concludes the expert. “The Russian regime has no incentive to end the war.” Russia can neither afford to win the war nor to lose it.
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War as an economic model means there is no incentive for peace.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

If you zoom out, that momentum is small they advance not that much the advance is about 1% as Ukraine advanced (that was a breakthrough Ukraine retook over 500 settlements and 12,000 square kilometres of territory in the Kharkiv region in 2022) Russia is not winning really why everybody think Russia has already won is beyond me. This is not a breakthrough!

Nowhere did I mentioned Russia has or is about to win nor did I mention any breakthrough. What I said is that they have the momentum the initiative.

One is hoping the weapon aids to Ukraine may turn the tide in Ukraine favour.

Markus