Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

As I wrote some days ago:

Lets wait until Autumn before we judge the Ukrainians war effort during the Spring and Summer.

I think we will see how well or how badly it have gone then.

Markus

Russia lost this year already more than they can get to the front (a new offensive takes a long time to prepare certainly if you lose everything or more in your last offensive), so spring is lost for them for the summer Ukraine has got the tools to hold back the Russian army give it a couple of weeks we will see a higher rise of Russian loses than we saw in these past 4 months. The US has prepared for this NATO stores are full of tools and munition at the anger about this aid they see as betrayal by republicans, Russia is knowing the situation only will go bad after this passing of this bill. Putin only drive is hope, hoping public opinion can be bombed, hoping the US pulls out of this war, hoping that the will of Ukraine to resist suddenly goes away, etc, etc if that not works we nuke everybody but... nah... that did not work either OK... back to destruction lets hope now... a country that can not even win an offensive against a country that can win an offensive taking back over 12,000 square Km has lost it and will never win here. Ukraine is waiting for them giving them Forrest and villages till the salient is too big, too deep into Ukraine that Russia must cross open fields than they are outflanked, destroyed in the field this is the same strategy where Russian since Catherine II is famous about "deep defence".

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Russia lost this year already more than they can get to the front (a new offensive takes a long time to prepare certainly if you lose everything or more in your last offensive), so spring is lost for them for the summer Ukraine has got the tools to hold back the Russian army give it a couple of weeks we will see a higher rise of Russian loses than we saw in these past 4 months. The US has prepared for this NATO stores are full of tools and munition at the anger about this aid they see as betrayal by republicans, Russia is knowing the situation only will go bad after this passing of this bill. Putin only drive is hope, hoping public opinion can be bombed, hoping the US pulls out of this war, hoping that the will of Ukraine to resist suddenly goes away, etc, etc if that not works we nuke everybody but... nah... that did not work either OK... back to destruction lets hope now... a country that can not even win an offensive against a country that can win an offensive over 2000 square Km has lost it and will never win here.

I must say you are a very optimistic.You turn every negative to something positive-I like that.

I want the Ukrainian to win this war so I hope the new ammo and weapon supply will make Ukraine even better in their offensive. I expect when they got the ammo and weapon they will change warfare from offensive defense to offensive.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

I must say you are a very optimistic.You turn every negative to something positive-I like that.

I want the Ukrainian to win this war so I hope the new ammo and weapon supply will make Ukraine even better in their offensive. I expect when they got the ammo and weapon they will change warfare from offensive defense to offensive.

Markus

This is no optimism from me this is what I see from the data publicly on the internet, and it is what most military see also the satellite images, drone footage is there is being annalize'd nobody sees a quick win for Russia, what they gained that last 6 months is tactical not one strategic goal is gained by Russia and Russia is not capable to do big forwards offensives. This is not the Russian fully trained army this is a contract, poorly trained and poorly led army with low moral hardly the will like Ukraine army has.

[Dargo]

$1B U.S. Air Package To Ukraine On Its Way, ATACMS Missiles Already Secretly Provided

The package, which includes artillery shells, HIMARS and air defense munitions, comes as Russia is increasing pressure on Ukraine. The Pentagon on Wednesday announced a new $1 billion package of arms for Ukraine, which includes badly needed artillery rounds, munitions for U.S. donated M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS and air defense systems. At the same time, it is coming to light that the U.S. has already supplied additional ATACMS ballistic missiles to Ukraine, and reportedly, for the first time, longer-range variants, under a secret transfer operation, the works of which we have seen recently. The equipment, much of it already stationed in neighboring European countries, is expected to start flowing into Ukraine quickly, Biden said.

"I'm making sure the shipments start right away," said Biden. "In the next few hours, literally in a few hours, will begin sending equipment to Ukraine for air defense munitions, for artillery for rocket systems and armored vehicles." The new Pentagon aid package is the 56th round tranche of equipment provided from the Defense Department to Ukraine under Presidential Drawdown Authority, which means it is coming from existing U.S. stocks.

The capabilities in this announcement include:

• RIM-7 and AIM-9M missiles for air defense;
• Stinger anti-aircraft missiles;
• Small arms and additional rounds of small arms ammunition, including .50 caliber rounds to counter Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS);
• Additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS);
• 155mm artillery rounds, including High Explosive and Dual Purpose Improved Conventional Munitions rounds;
• 105mm artillery rounds;
• 60mm mortar rounds;
• Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicles;
• Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles (MRAPs);
• High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs);
• Logistics support vehicles;
• Tactical vehicles to tow and haul equipment;
• Tube-Launched, Optically-Tracked, Wire-Guided (TOW) missiles;
• Javelin and AT-4 anti-armor systems;
• Precision aerial munitions;
• Airfield support equipment;
• Anti-armor mines;
• Claymore anti-personnel munitions;
• Demolitions munitions for obstacle clearing; and
• Night vision devices; and
• Spare parts, field equipment, training munitions, maintenance, and other ancillary equipment.

https://www.twz.com/news-features/1b-u-s-air-package-to-ukraine-on-its-way-atacms-missiles-already-secretly-provided

100 ATACMS were provided under last month's drawdown, including some of the longer range variants, likely M39A1 but possibly M48 & M57s as well. Dzhankoi was struck, but also Berdyansk... https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/24/u...?smid=tw-share



The US Senate did not need to vote on this aid for Ukraine... because it already did so on 19 May 2022. Biden had some $3.8 billion in PDA money left over from the first aid package, and that equipment is now being shipped in expectation of the new aif package being voted on. https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1782875205544648886

By my calculations the first trucks with fresh US artillery ammo are about now arriving at the frontline. By nightfall russian telegram channels will start to bitch about the level of Ukrainian artillery :-))) $3 billion of materiel on the move. https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1782652490124526013

Believe it or not, the sky did not fall on the Earth, there is no "WW3," no boiling seas, no 40 years of darkness, no earthquakes, no volcanos, no mass hysteria, and no freesing West.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Nothing says assured Russian victory quite like them sending their infantry into active battlefields on Chinese golf carts. Confetti! After every town, village shot to rubble Russia face open fields, rivers, etc they must cross with Ukraine on better defence lines turkey shooting no decisive breakthrough only small salients where Russia gone face supply problems with so many drones in the air nobody can here do quick forward pushes. After Bahkmut Russia needed more than a year to prepare this offensive with their high losses in material daily this will stall. Russia has not the reserves, the workforce that you need to win this offensive they're losing weekly what they can bring to the fronts in a month. If you have more than 100k troops more than 500 tanks and so so many bombs and shells after more than 6 months only advance 200 square Km you are not breaking through you are crawling through Ukraine holds the lines and with new supplies will hold it this year draining Russia of its workforce, resources, material and personnel.

80% of Ukrainian criticla infraxstructre destroeyd. Not damaged - DESTROYED. Most powerplants out of action, the majorit yof nthese - DESTROYED. Civilian production plummeting constantly to new lows. Financially, Ukraine cannot survive by its own means anymore.

Thats what I see.

What I also see: no realistic way for Ukraine to get back the territories occupied by Russia. No Ukriane offensive this year or in the next. No new equipping of 10-15 attack brigades by the West.

The population having lost a significant share of its formner soze, with the threat that they could lose a quarter and more ifm Russia just stay sin the game. Lost mostly due to migration. Thats what I see.

What I dont see, is this: another US aid package like this one being put together this year or the next year, no matter who wins the US election. I dont see European nations compensating for the US dropping out.

Tanks are tools of war - not the objective. You count healdines thatn Ukraine tries to rpouce whenever Rus sia did somethign successful. It is nto that mcub relevant you know. You should have noticed by now that Russia - adapts. It has adapted to the 777s. The Javelins. The Himars. The Leopards and Abrams, the Marders and Bradleys. The Cesar and PZH2000 SPA artillery. It got delayed in doing things - not stopped. It will be like this with rhe Atacms, and the - way too few - Falcons.

Because the root evil remains: Ukraine does get WAY TOO FEW QUANTITIES of everything.

The only thing that Russia finds difficult to adapt to, are the drones. But at least they learned to impose the same problem on the Ukrainians.

Next winter - and there will come a next winter - will be hell in Ukraine.

You pay too much attention to sensational headlines about tactical micro successes here and there. But for the most they do not really mean that much in the bigger scheme of things.

The aid package so far just extends the deadline for Ukraine a little bit. Not more. And Europe refuses to significantly top up the American package. And with what it should want to do that anyway...? We are almost naked.

Germany annoucned to give a third Patriot battery to Ukraine. Of previously 11 batteries, then 8 remain. The call for other European nations to provide additional air defences, went unheard.

New stuff has been ordered by the military, the German and other European armies as well. For the most it will take years before it arrives. One waited two years, sticking the head in the sand. Two years - senselessly wasted.


What it all means by the end of the day? It is still by far not enough. Thats what it means. Not "not enough" by a margin - not enough BY FACTORS.

[Skybird]

After all...

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/u...ime-rcna148309

ATACMS with 300km range and both fragmentation and explosive warheads being used twice, inside Crimea.

[mapuc]

I'm positive I hope that the weapon and ammo that get delivered will mean a good thing for the Ukrainian army and I hope the F16 will make some difference in the air warfare.

Markus

[mapuc]

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by Skybird

80% of Ukrainian criticla infraxstructre destroeyd. Not damaged - DESTROYED. Most powerplants out of action, the majorit yof nthese - DESTROYED. Civilian production plummeting constantly to new lows. Financially, Ukraine cannot survive by its own means anymore.

Thats what I see.

What I also see: no realistic way for Ukraine to get back the territories occupied by Russia. No Ukriane offensive this year or in the next. No new equipping of 10-15 attack brigades by the West.

The population having lost a significant share of its formner soze, with the threat that they could lose a quarter and more ifm Russia just stay sin the game. Lost mostly due to migration. Thats what I see.

What I dont see, is this: another US aid package like this one being put together this year or the next year, no matter who wins the US election. I dont see European nations compensating for the US dropping out.

Tanks are tools of war - not the objective. You count healdines thatn Ukraine tries to rpouce whenever Rus sia did somethign successful. It is nto that mcub relevant you know. You should have noticed by now that Russia - adapts. It has adapted to the 777s. The Javelins. The Himars. The Leopards and Abrams, the Marders and Bradleys. The Cesar and PZH2000 SPA artillery. It got delayed in doing things - not stopped. It will be like this with rhe Atacms, and the - way too few - Falcons.

Because the root evil remains: Ukraine does get WAY TOO FEW QUANTITIES of everything.

The only thing that Russia finds difficult to adapt to, are the drones. But at least they learned to impose the same problem on the Ukrainians.

Next winter - and there will come a next winter - will be hell in Ukraine.

You pay too much attention to sensational headlines about tactical micro successes here and there. But for the most they do not really mean that much in the bigger scheme of things.

The aid package so far just extends the deadline for Ukraine a little bit. Not more. And Europe refuses to significantly top up the American package. And with what it should want to do that anyway...? We are almost naked.

Germany annoucned to give a third Patriot battery to Ukraine. Of previously 11 batteries, then 8 remain. The call for other European nations to provide additional air defences, went unheard.

New stuff has been ordered by the military, the German and other European armies as well. For the most it will take years before it arrives. One waited two years, sticking the head in the sand. Two years - senselessly wasted.


What it all means by the end of the day? It is still by far not enough. Thats what it means. Not "not enough" by a margin - not enough BY FACTORS.

All those things you fear for ukraine is the normal for russia next winter will be worse for russia as it did for the last one. Russia is in need of a labor forse they need more than 5 million the more they mobilize the more they will need in labor forse. Russia can not get that oil and gas out of the ground without western material and knowlegde. The longer this war prolongs the more we will see Russia having all kind of problems (like the floods, fires, breking down of energy systems, etc) ukraine can with their drones reach russia oil refineries behind the Ural the oil they need for war and war production the longer this war goes on more events will happen that is all caused by putin and his kleptocrate clan this will create situations that putin could lose control. The tinder is there now, it is to wonder who drops the cigarette my prediction is Russia will set itself on fire. They can have billions of shells, I really do not care they will never produce or get those barrels out of stock to fire them in the long run. Ukraine has our support, and we keep them alive who is that for Russia, China? No, it does not want their economy hurt by Europe and the US. Iran? No, it does not matter how many drones they send, it will not mean Russia advance on the battlefield. North Korea? Pfff only thing North Korea has done is creating a cult of starving population yeah they have artillery but not stupid to give to Russia their enemy is South Korea they never send the amount that would hurt their own security. Basically Russia is on its own as history showed it was never great as a pariah. Russia lost it on so many fronts do not kid yourself it can be great in anything for centuries it was backwards and with this same Russian thinking it will stay back wards do not think a country the size economy of Texas can defeat the west. Russia has also a lot of shortages and stupid thing is lubricating oil really explain me why russia could win a country that has so many resources but can not even make enough lubricating oil and did not reach any strategic goal Russia is screwed. Ukraine as tiny country has more retaken than russia has conquerd in two years and the will to fight is still there that is the main win.

[mapuc]

Markus

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

All those things you fear for ukraine is the normal for russia next winter will be worse for russia as it did for the last one. Russia is in need of a labor forse they need more than 5 million the more they mobilize the more they will need in labor forse. Russia can not get that oil and gas out of the ground without western material and knowlegde. The longer this war prolongs the more we will see Russia having all kind of problems (like the floods, fires, breking down of energy systems, etc) ukraine can with their drones reach russia oil refineries behind the Ural the oil they need for war and war production the longer this war goes on more events will happen that is all caused by putin and his kleptocrate clan this will create situations that putin could lose control. The tinder is there now, it is to wonder who drops the cigarette my prediction is Russia will set itself on fire. They can have billions of shells, I really do not care they will never produce or get those barrels out of stock to fire them in the long run. Ukraine has our support, and we keep them alive who is that for Russia, China? No, it does not want their economy hurt by Europe and the US. Iran? No, it does not matter how many drones they send, it will not mean Russia advance on the battlefield. North Korea? Pfff only thing North Korea has done is creating a cult of starving population yeah they have artillery but not stupid to give to Russia their enemy is South Korea they never send the amount that would hurt their own security. Basically Russia is on its own as history showed it was never great as a pariah. Russia lost it on so many fronts do not kid yourself it can be great in anything for centuries it was backwards and with this same Russian thinking it will stay back wards do not think a country the size economy of Texas can defeat the west. Russia has also a lot of shortages and stupid thing is lubricating oil really explain me why russia could win a country that has so many resources but can not even make enough lubricating oil and did not reach any strategic goal Russia is screwed. Ukraine as tiny country has more retaken than russia has conquerd in two years and the will to fight is still there that is the main win.

Would this be enough-The will to fight is still there that is the main win ?
As some of you mentioned before-Time is on Russia's side of the war.
When this packages of ammo and weapon supply comes to and end-Will USA send an another Billion big package to Ukraine ?

Markus

[Catfish]

re Dargo

I am not as pessimistic as Skybird (perhaps change his name to 'Sooty Shearwater' (zoologically speaking) , but maybe we should not post details of what exactly was delivered (unless intentionally misguiding) for obvious reasons. I know it can be found all over the 'net but why make it easier for Putin...

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Catfish

re Dargo

I am not as pessimistic as Skybird (perhaps change his name to 'Sooty Shearwater' (zoologically speaking) , but maybe we should not post details of what exactly was delivered (unless intentionally misguiding) for obvious reasons. I know it can be found all over the 'net but why make it easier for Putin...

I think he knows what's on its way to Ukraine whether we mention it or not.

Markus

[Skybird]

Colonel Reisner, sharing my alarmed attitude on the battle at Ocheretyne. We can safely assume that he has access to better info than we have from public media, and for a strange reason he supports my "pessimistic" views, or I support his, depending on who posts first and how you want to look at it. And all in all his predictions on how the war would go militarily and politically, were correct, and I have posted similiar views on the political erosion of Western support already in the first summer of the war. I dont want to decorate myself with foreign feathers, but I think what he said in the past two years more or less supports my "pessimism". I see it as realism, btw.

https://www-n--tv-de.translate.goog/...en&_x_tr_hl=de


The current aid package will post some new surprises for the Russians. But after some time, the surprise effect is eaten up, so is the ammunition and missiles, the Russians will have learned to adapt like they did before - and then what...?

Too little to win, too much to die right away. As always in this war. Thats what the new aid is. Enjoy the headlines and bright lights and loud sounds as long as they last. The show will not run forever. It has an inbuild time limit.

Not. Enough.

[Skybird]

Originally Posted by Catfish

re Dargo

I am not as pessimistic as Skybird (perhaps change his name to 'Sooty Shearwater' (zoologically speaking) , but maybe we should not post details of what exactly was delivered (unless intentionally misguiding) for obvious reasons. I know it can be found all over the 'net but why make it easier for Putin...

You think really that Russians are this dumb that they depend on reading Subsim's General Topic to gain their intel? Trust their abilities a little bit more, I say.