Hamas launches war on Israel

[Jimbuna]

^No surprises there then, it has been on the cards for quite a while.

My question would be....how will Iran respond.

[mapuc]

I think the entire world is holding its breath, awaiting the response from Iran.

Are Israel finish or is there more to come ?

What I believe - Iran will not retaliate and Israel will not send more ballistic missiles or planes against Iran.

Iran is not interested in an all out war with Israel-They would lose and their goal to get nukes would be in danger.

This is my standpoint-Usually I'm always wrong.

Markus

[Skybird]

Four hours duraiton, roughly. This seems to to have been far more limited than I would have expected. No oil and no nuke facilities struck. Strange. I mean it can be explained what led to this limitation (American pressure, that is), but that Israel accepted to comply: thats strange and definitely not what I would have expected.

I also think we have seen the last chance to destroy the Iranian bomb being wasted. If there still was such a remaining chance left, that is. This was the moment when the pilot on final approach reaches decision altitude and says "Continue". Everybody has arranged himself with the Iranian nuclear bomb. All what happens internationally now until Iran formally announces they got it is, will be just theatre play.


So say Hi to the latest member in the nukie club.

[Skybird]

Anecdotal, but still somewhat revealing.

https://www-focus-de.translate.goog/..._x_tr_pto=wapp

[Bilge_Rat]

Interesting.

Still waiting for technical details on the strike. Interesting that the IDF used manned ACs instead of ballistic missiles.

Apparently 100 IDF ACs very involved including F-35s flying 2000 km which means they most likely overflew Saudi Arabia. Iraq would not have given overflight permission. That distance also meant they would have had to refuel from tankers most likely positioned over Saudi Arabia. The IDF has been working on plans to attack Iran nuclear sites for 15+ years, so probably just re-used those plans.

The F-35s, since they are stealth AC, most likely went in first to neutralize Iranian air defences.

[mapuc]

What most of the people does not know is that there has been special forces on the ground in Iran-Their job was to illuminate the targets.

This I'm sure of.

There exist missiles where the target gets illuminated from the aircraft itself.

Markus

[Jimbuna]

Originally Posted by mapuc

I think the entire world is holding its breath, awaiting the response from Iran.

Are Israel finish or is there more to come ?

What I believe - Iran will not retaliate and Israel will not send more ballistic missiles or planes against Iran.

Iran is not interested in an all out war with Israel-They would lose and their goal to get nukes would be in danger.

This is my standpoint-Usually I'm always wrong.

Markus

Well on this occasion I reckon we should all hope you are correct.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

Well on this occasion I reckon we should all hope you are correct.

Another thing Iran could do to punish those who support Israel, especially USA, is to close the strait of Hormuz.

If they chose to do this-USA will be involved. Which is why I think they aren't going to do it. Iran isn't desperate they don't want a war with USA.

However in an all out war with Israel-They may do it-close the Strait of Hormuz.

It will not only be USA, but many other countries will send military ships to the area-Those who is hugely depended on oil.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

Another thing Iran could do to punish those who support Israel, especially USA, is to close the strait of Hormuz.

If they chose to do this-USA will be involved. Which is why I think they aren't going to do it. Iran isn't desperate they don't want a war with USA.

However in an all out war with Israel-They may do it-close the Strait of Hormuz.

It will not only be USA, but many other countries will send military ships to the area-Those who is hugely depended on oil.

Markus

Iran will not do anything it has not the military power to go to war with the US also this will mean going to war with Saudi Arabia and his allies.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Iran will not do anything it has not the military power to go to war with the US also this will mean going to war with Saudi Arabia and his allies.

They only need to place a few SSM missiles on land in the Middle of Hormuz nothing more and some SAM's to protect these SSM. As I wrote they are not desperate and they have a goal to reach.

Markus

[Dargo]

Originally Posted by mapuc

They only need to place a few SSM missiles on land in the Middle of Hormuz nothing more and some SAM's to protect these SSM. As I wrote they are not desperate and they have a goal to reach.

Markus

Iran's air force and air defences are too weak for war certainly too weak for the US air force, Iran can not beat B-2 Spirit stealth bombers, along with other U.S. forces.

[mapuc]

Originally Posted by Dargo

Iran's air force and air defences are too weak for war certainly too weak for the US air force, Iran can not beat B-2 Spirit stealth bombers, along with other U.S. forces.

You're right-Iran have a goal to reach and they are not interested in a conflict with Israel or USA.

What type of Iran will we see when they have reached their goal ?

Markus

[Exocet25fr]

Truck rams into people at Tel Aviv bus stop, wounding dozens

Truck driver rams vehicle into a crowd, injuring at least 40 people, before he is shot dead. The incident happened on Sunday at a bus stop near the Gillot Israeli military base (Mossad), with rescue workers saying several people were trapped under the truck.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/...ounding-dozens

[Jimbuna]

Iran faces hard choices between risks of escalation or looking weak

Israel’s attack on Iran deepens the war in the Middle East. Avoiding, or risking, an even worse escalation is at the heart of decisions being taken by Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his key advisors.

They must decide on the least bad of a series of difficult choices. At one end of the spectrum is hitting back with another wave of ballistic missiles. Israel has already threatened to retaliate again if that happens.

At the other is deciding to draw a line under the destructive exchanges of direct strikes on their respective territories. The risk for Iran if it holds its fire is that looks weak, intimidated and deterred by Israel’s military power and political determination, backed up by the United States.

In the end, the supreme leader and his advisers are likely to take the decision that, in their view, does least harm to the survival of Iran’s Islamic regime.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cm2742rynqgo

[Jimbuna]