Huge pro-EU rally grips Ukraine - Page 94

Skybird · 09-02-14, 03:20 PM

ikalugin,

you underestimate the personal missionary spirit that probabaly now drives Putin as well. There are Russian "zones of ionterest" already in Moldavia, and around Odessa (I wonder why Odessa gets so little recogntiion her ein the Wetsenr media). Also, Putin repeatedly mentioned in last speeches the idea or conception of "Nova Russia". This is a terriotiry that has precedneces in history leading back to the time of Katarina. Here is a map.

That territory bites quite a huge bit out of the Ukraine, the complete south and east, and of course access to the sea would be blcoked for the rest of Ukraine as well. It closes the löand connection from Russia to the Crimean, to Odessa - and borders to the conflict zone of Transnistria/Moldavia.

If that is what Putin aims at, the n we still have quite a big conflict before us.

The sanctions will drive a sting into Russia, no illusions about that. Whether they make Putin change his policies, is something different. He has driven himself so far ahead that I think he even could nto move back jnow anbym ore even if he wanted to do so. It wouold weaken himsaelf at home, damage his public reputation, and foster dissatisfaction with the conservative elites.

Tpo prevent the Uk,raine turning into a NAT= meber, to prevent NATO navy units stationed in Sevastopol, to finally get beyond the notorious conflicts with Kiev since the orange revolution, and to enforce a change of the Ukraine into a political entity where Russia directly or indirectly could interfere and keep the ukraine within Russia'S sphere of influence (divide et impera by federalism and an autonomous East), as well as getting the Crimean, I think were minimum objectives of the Russian reaction sinc elast autumn.

Whether it will be left to this - or will become a bidding for a Nova Russia, we will see soon enough.

Skybird · 09-02-14, 03:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Catfish

"MEMORANDUM FOR: Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany
FROM: Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)
SUBJECT: Ukraine and NATO
We the undersigned are long-time veterans of U.S. intelligence. We take the unusual step of writing this open letter to you to ensure that you have an opportunity to be briefed on our views prior to the NATO summit on Sept. 4-5.
You need to know, for example, that accusations of a major Russian “invasion” of Ukraine appear not to be supported by reliable intelligence. Rather, the “intelligence” seems to be of the same dubious, politically “fixed” kind used 12 years ago to “justify” the U.S.-led attack on Iraq
[...]"

Priceless

^^ @Skybird, well this kind of prosa does not cause any response here, does it ?
We the NATO are the good, that's all you need to know.
Otherwise you are a communist non-patriot !!

Trekkies use to compare the Wwest to the good Federation and the Russians to the Klingons. My comparison is different. The West is the Ferengi, and the Russians is the Romulans, and Islam is the Klingons. The Federation is an utopic ideal that everybody wants to claim (maybe not the klingons...) for his cause - to dress his own egocentrism into it nicely and give it a friendly appearance.

I forgot in the posting before to link to the German essay I found the map in, it is in German and sheds some light again on this history of Nova Russia.

http://www.welt.de/geschichte/articl...land-sagt.html

mapuc · 09-02-14, 03:30 PM

NATO is NOT going to do anything whatsoever

That is what some of you told me in one of my thread

http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=215042

Markus

Catfish · 09-02-14, 03:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skybird

... I forgot in the posting before to link to the German essay I found the map in, it is in German and sheds some light again on this history of Nova Russia.

http://www.welt.de/geschichte/articl...land-sagt.html

As i posted further north in this thread:
"The outline of the Ukraine has been created on a drawing table in 1917, by the german general staff.
Sharp tongues say the Ukraine was a german idea, to weaken Russia. And it will not forget that, not even if the CIA installs itself personally, in Kiew."

We will see, but from those essays it seems Putin wants either all of the Ukraine, or it is at least partially NATO propaganda.

I am beginning to dislike Putin's role in this, but why is there no official direct evidence for Russia's involvement ? I mean if they are engaged there MUST be some provable intelligence about it ?
In that case maybe some geste like the Truman doctrine back then would put a stop to it ?

Bilge_Rat · 09-02-14, 04:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Catfish

I am beginning to dislike Putin's role in this, but why is there no official direct evidence for Russia's involvement ? I mean if they are engaged there MUST be some provable intelligence about it ?
In that case maybe some geste like the Truman doctrine back then would put a stop to it ?

The problem is you have no one on the ground who can independently verify what is going on, so you have a lot of circumstancial evidence and conjecture.

What we can glean so far:

-Russia has been supplying the Rebels with weapons, at first they were careful to only provide weapons that could plausibly be captured from the Ukrainians, but that has pretty much gone out the window, since the Rebels seem to have latest gen AT weapons, Tanks, including T-72s, artillery, BMPs;

-Many Russian "volonteers" have shown up, although whether they constitute a majority or minority of fighters among the Rebels is debatable. No direct link to the Kremlin has been shown, but there is indirect evidence they are financed by nationalist Russian Oligarchs. To me it is doubtful this could happen without the green light from Putin;

What is less clear:

-Whether Russian SAM systems/artillery were/are present in Ukraine and/or being used from Russian territory. To me the evidence is pretty clear, but again no direct "smoking gun", AFAIK;

-The number/types of Russian units in Ukraine. It seems pretty clear the special forces have been involved since the beginning and that the appearance of regular Russian units is a more recent phenomenon. A friend of mine who follows this very closely says he has indentified 4 different Russian units in Ukraine. The capture of the 10 Russian paratroopers, funerals in Pskov and the fact that the military situation has reversed so quickly against the Ukrainians would seem to indicate that Russian troops have arrived in sizable numbers, but again no clear "smoking gun";

However, to a large extent, whether proof is there or not is academic, the real question is what will the US/NATO/EU do about it. So far, we see a lot of talk, but not much action.

Skybird · 09-02-14, 06:34 PM

Not much can be done. Not much should be done. War with Russia is out of the question. Pushing sanctions too far may hurt Russia. But Europe and the EU at least as much if not more, in the long run, namely the German paymaster.

Indeed I have wondered since a few days whether maybe Putin by all this doing even tries to provoke a crisis in financial relations, to use that as some kind of catalyst to speed up the wanted attack on the global dollar and euro regime. I have not figure however how that link, if it exists, may work, so it is just a working hypothesis I keep on the desktop for possible further examination. Launching such a strike at a time when the helplessness of the exhausted central banks in the West is obvious and so is the vulnerability of the established paper money, is only logical - if such a possibility exists.

If it is true, then the silent support of and secret coordination with china can be taken as a certainty, for Russia alone could not be successful with that against the will of the Chinese. And that possibility of China collaborating in that currency war is what would make this scenario so extremely dangerous for the West.

Such a strike will come sooner or later, its only a question of when.

Oberon · 09-02-14, 06:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Skybird

Trekkies use to compare the Wwest to the good Federation and the Russians to the Klingons. My comparison is different. The West is the Ferengi, and the Russians is the Romulans, and Islam is the Klingons. The Federation is an utopic ideal that everybody wants to claim (maybe not the klingons...) for his cause - to dress his own egocentrism into it nicely and give it a friendly appearance.

I forgot in the posting before to link to the German essay I found the map in, it is in German and sheds some light again on this history of Nova Russia.

http://www.welt.de/geschichte/articl...land-sagt.html

Does that make China the Breen?

ikalugin · 09-02-14, 11:08 PM

On Novorussia concept and its place of policy - you have clearly have not been following the Russian policy closely, it has underwent several very important changes:

Phase 1) - Crimea. During this time Crimea has been annexed, and weak, mainly private support has been offered to the self proclaimed republics. At that time Putin indeed does get his "Novorussia" rhetoric out and group A) is being assighned to monitor the developments and control Russian participation in the events.

Phase 2) - We don't know nothing. During this period Putin's rhetoric undergoes a change - he asks the separatists to wait a bit longer with their referendums, as well accepting the newly elected president. The group A)'s people in the Novorussia do not develop local forces in the Donetsk and Lugansk (less in Lugansk, more so in Donetsk), contrary to the Strelkov in Slavyansk. There is even unconfirmed stuff that the group A) plans to abandon the Novorussia due to the high political costs (sanctions) of the operation.

Phase 3) - Lets do it. And now, after the Strelkov's return from the Slavyansk the politics change yet again. Now it is group B) that controls the Ukraine crisis related policy and this group expands all sorts of support, more recently it even changes the leadership to a more military proffesional, local (as in Ukranian) crew.

The borders of the Novorussia depend largerly on the negotiations and the future Ukranian stasus. Though obviously now we cannot abandon Lugansk and Donetsk oblast regions (and even more obviously Crimea, which is non negotiable) - the other region's status is yet to be determined by the diplomatic means.

The "big" Novorussia can be seen here:

Oberon · 09-02-14, 11:18 PM

Those borders look about what I'd expect the Russians to go for if push comes to shove. The key is taking and holding it, winter will go far for this, but unless some sort of ceasefire can be put forward then Kiev will rearm and reload from the west and just keep banging its head into the wall until it gets itself overthrown in another popular uprising.

Strelkov/Strelok...oh dear...can you say 'Get out of here'?

ikalugin · 09-03-14, 12:52 AM

Well only if push comes to shove. Otherwise there is no need for this, as it would be hard to develop those depressive regions for Russia.

Strelkov (aka Girkin) was one of the prominent separatist's leaders. He is known to be a "Whites" fan, before the crisis he was very big on reconstructing the events of Civil War in Ukraine.

Sbygneus · 09-03-14, 01:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ikalugin

I think the story here is simpler and more complex at the same time.

When the cold war has ended the West has assumed that:
- the looser would behave as a looser should (as it was assumed that "Russia" lost the cold war).
- that Russia would soon follow the Western rules of the game and would be succeptable to the Western mentality.
- would quitely grow and would never fully recover.

This is not what happened. The reasons for this are many, the obvious ones are that Russia has viewed the results of the cold war differently and that Russia has a very different, eastern christian mentality/cultural heritage. If you are interested in further reading you can use this article:
http://pozneronline.ru/2014/03/7200/
It is writen by an independent journalist and was originally published in the opposition's media outlet (the Echo of Moscow radiostation).

And because the specific Russian mentality everybody else has to patiently watch Russia grabbing the land?
Listen. Every nation has specific mentality which fact sometimes produces problems. And thats why civilised people agreed to some principle rules, like right to chose their own path of development, borders integrity, etc.
Just to avoid conflicts, right?
Then what spheres of political influence are we talking about? Ukraine may chose its path or not?

ikalugin · 09-03-14, 02:10 AM

You have completely misunderstood my point. Which was that US (and collective West in general) has assumed that Russia would conform to their own (US/Western) actions that go against Russian national interests (and what Russian perceives as common good), that Russia would soon follow the US lead and do as it is told to, that Russia would never recover from it's independence.

This was not to be as history shows us, for the good or bad. This misconception, as well as the Russian misconception that US/collective West would follow the rules of the game and treat Russian interests with respect (should Russia conform to the general US/Western policy) lead to the apparent conflict between the parties, which in turn turned into the Ukranian conflict as the result.

As to the "principle rules", they do not exist, as the primary international players (namely US itself) do not abide by them or twist them to suit their needs.

p.s. as to the Ukraine itself - should it join common economical space with the EU, then it cannot have free trade space with Russia (for obvious reasons of one way customs free flow of goods from EU to Russia), which would lead to the death of the industry (as it is reliant on the Russian/CIS markets and cheap energy to survive). Would the agricultural sector take up the slack? It wont due to quotas, read the assosiation documentation. Ukraine joining NATO is not only bad for Russia (for obvious reasons of a hostile alliance blocking all western approaches) but also against Ukranian constitution (which is bad)

Sbygneus · 09-03-14, 02:36 AM

[QUOTE=ikalugin;2238998]
as to the Ukraine itself - should it join common economical space with the EU, then it cannot have free trade space with Russia (for obvious reasons of one way customs free flow of goods from EU to Russia), which would lead to the death of the industry (as it is reliant on the Russian/CIS markets and cheap energy to survive). QUOTE]

Agreed. And Shouldn't Ukraine decide its trading partners itself? Even if it meens their economic demise? I always thought it is called freedom of choice.

Sorry mate, I just dont buy talking about US being cause of all the wrong in the world (though I am not an American myself). US is good in SO many areas, and its good to be with the better, isnt it? I wish I always had the right to chose my friends.

And I am able to see there is at least one "principle rule" in politics - the rule of the jungle.

ikalugin · 09-03-14, 02:44 AM

It could, however it does not do so. And please reserve the fairy tale stories about how Ukranian people have rationally and freely chosen the assosiation with the EU without any external influence.

You should be, as I am not yours mate. Or pal for that matter. This is not to be taken offensively, I just do not see any grounds so far on which we can be friendly. As to the matter at hand - where did I claim that "US being cause of all the wrong in the world"? I have merely pointed out that the universal rules you have talked about do not exist because major players (such as the US) do not follow them. Thus asking another party (such as Russia) to follow them would be wrong.

Then why do you even argue about the morals of Russian participation in Ukranian crisis?

Sbygneus · 09-03-14, 03:17 AM

Ofcourse we are influenced everyday and by many things - that does not rule out our free choice. For example, we are asked to drink alkohol by group of friends, but It is our choice if we do it or not. At least if one of them is not threating us with a knife do drink.

Please dont be fussy about "pals" and "mates". I didnt want to insult you in this way. If I did I apologize.

As to the argument about morals of Russian participation in Ukrainian crisis: "the rule of the jungle" I spoke of was irony. I dont agree with this "rule" and I hope you do not either.

09-02-14, 03:20 PM	#1396
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,792 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	ikalugin, you underestimate the personal missionary spirit that probabaly now drives Putin as well. There are Russian "zones of ionterest" already in Moldavia, and around Odessa (I wonder why Odessa gets so little recogntiion her ein the Wetsenr media). Also, Putin repeatedly mentioned in last speeches the idea or conception of "Nova Russia". This is a terriotiry that has precedneces in history leading back to the time of Katarina. Here is a map. That territory bites quite a huge bit out of the Ukraine, the complete south and east, and of course access to the sea would be blcoked for the rest of Ukraine as well. It closes the löand connection from Russia to the Crimean, to Odessa - and borders to the conflict zone of Transnistria/Moldavia. If that is what Putin aims at, the n we still have quite a big conflict before us. The sanctions will drive a sting into Russia, no illusions about that. Whether they make Putin change his policies, is something different. He has driven himself so far ahead that I think he even could nto move back jnow anbym ore even if he wanted to do so. It wouold weaken himsaelf at home, damage his public reputation, and foster dissatisfaction with the conservative elites. Tpo prevent the Uk,raine turning into a NAT= meber, to prevent NATO navy units stationed in Sevastopol, to finally get beyond the notorious conflicts with Kiev since the orange revolution, and to enforce a change of the Ukraine into a political entity where Russia directly or indirectly could interfere and keep the ukraine within Russia'S sphere of influence (divide et impera by federalism and an autonomous East), as well as getting the Crimean, I think were minimum objectives of the Russian reaction sinc elast autumn. Whether it will be left to this - or will become a bidding for a Nova Russia, we will see soon enough. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

09-02-14, 06:34 PM	#1401
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,792 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	Not much can be done. Not much should be done. War with Russia is out of the question. Pushing sanctions too far may hurt Russia. But Europe and the EU at least as much if not more, in the long run, namely the German paymaster. Indeed I have wondered since a few days whether maybe Putin by all this doing even tries to provoke a crisis in financial relations, to use that as some kind of catalyst to speed up the wanted attack on the global dollar and euro regime. I have not figure however how that link, if it exists, may work, so it is just a working hypothesis I keep on the desktop for possible further examination. Launching such a strike at a time when the helplessness of the exhausted central banks in the West is obvious and so is the vulnerability of the established paper money, is only logical - if such a possibility exists. If it is true, then the silent support of and secret coordination with china can be taken as a certainty, for Russia alone could not be successful with that against the will of the Chinese. And that possibility of China collaborating in that currency war is what would make this scenario so extremely dangerous for the West. Such a strike will come sooner or later, its only a question of when. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.

09-02-14, 03:30 PM	#1398
mapuc CINC Pacific Fleet Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Denmark Posts: 20,624 Downloads: 37 Uploads: 0	NATO is NOT going to do anything whatsoever That is what some of you told me in one of my thread http://www.subsim.com/radioroom/showthread.php?t=215042 Markus

09-02-14, 11:08 PM	#1403
ikalugin Ocean Warrior Join Date: Aug 2014 Location: Moscow, Russia Posts: 3,212 Downloads: 8 Uploads: 0	On Novorussia concept and its place of policy - you have clearly have not been following the Russian policy closely, it has underwent several very important changes: Phase 1) - Crimea. During this time Crimea has been annexed, and weak, mainly private support has been offered to the self proclaimed republics. At that time Putin indeed does get his "Novorussia" rhetoric out and group A) is being assighned to monitor the developments and control Russian participation in the events. Phase 2) - We don't know nothing. During this period Putin's rhetoric undergoes a change - he asks the separatists to wait a bit longer with their referendums, as well accepting the newly elected president. The group A)'s people in the Novorussia do not develop local forces in the Donetsk and Lugansk (less in Lugansk, more so in Donetsk), contrary to the Strelkov in Slavyansk. There is even unconfirmed stuff that the group A) plans to abandon the Novorussia due to the high political costs (sanctions) of the operation. Phase 3) - Lets do it. And now, after the Strelkov's return from the Slavyansk the politics change yet again. Now it is group B) that controls the Ukraine crisis related policy and this group expands all sorts of support, more recently it even changes the leadership to a more military proffesional, local (as in Ukranian) crew. The borders of the Novorussia depend largerly on the negotiations and the future Ukranian stasus. Though obviously now we cannot abandon Lugansk and Donetsk oblast regions (and even more obviously Crimea, which is non negotiable) - the other region's status is yet to be determined by the diplomatic means. The "big" Novorussia can be seen here:

09-02-14, 11:18 PM	#1404
Oberon Lucky Jack Join Date: Jul 2002 Posts: 25,976 Downloads: 61 Uploads: 20	Those borders look about what I'd expect the Russians to go for if push comes to shove. The key is taking and holding it, winter will go far for this, but unless some sort of ceasefire can be put forward then Kiev will rearm and reload from the west and just keep banging its head into the wall until it gets itself overthrown in another popular uprising. Strelkov/Strelok...oh dear...can you say 'Get out of here'?

09-03-14, 12:52 AM	#1405
ikalugin Ocean Warrior Join Date: Aug 2014 Location: Moscow, Russia Posts: 3,212 Downloads: 8 Uploads: 0	Well only if push comes to shove. Otherwise there is no need for this, as it would be hard to develop those depressive regions for Russia. Strelkov (aka Girkin) was one of the prominent separatist's leaders. He is known to be a "Whites" fan, before the crisis he was very big on reconstructing the events of Civil War in Ukraine.

09-03-14, 02:10 AM	#1407
ikalugin Ocean Warrior Join Date: Aug 2014 Location: Moscow, Russia Posts: 3,212 Downloads: 8 Uploads: 0	You have completely misunderstood my point. Which was that US (and collective West in general) has assumed that Russia would conform to their own (US/Western) actions that go against Russian national interests (and what Russian perceives as common good), that Russia would soon follow the US lead and do as it is told to, that Russia would never recover from it's independence. This was not to be as history shows us, for the good or bad. This misconception, as well as the Russian misconception that US/collective West would follow the rules of the game and treat Russian interests with respect (should Russia conform to the general US/Western policy) lead to the apparent conflict between the parties, which in turn turned into the Ukranian conflict as the result. As to the "principle rules", they do not exist, as the primary international players (namely US itself) do not abide by them or twist them to suit their needs. p.s. as to the Ukraine itself - should it join common economical space with the EU, then it cannot have free trade space with Russia (for obvious reasons of one way customs free flow of goods from EU to Russia), which would lead to the death of the industry (as it is reliant on the Russian/CIS markets and cheap energy to survive). Would the agricultural sector take up the slack? It wont due to quotas, read the assosiation documentation. Ukraine joining NATO is not only bad for Russia (for obvious reasons of a hostile alliance blocking all western approaches) but also against Ukranian constitution (which is bad)

09-03-14, 02:36 AM	#1408
Sbygneus Electrician's Mate Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 137 Downloads: 190 Uploads: 0	[QUOTE=ikalugin;2238998] as to the Ukraine itself - should it join common economical space with the EU, then it cannot have free trade space with Russia (for obvious reasons of one way customs free flow of goods from EU to Russia), which would lead to the death of the industry (as it is reliant on the Russian/CIS markets and cheap energy to survive). QUOTE] Agreed. And Shouldn't Ukraine decide its trading partners itself? Even if it meens their economic demise? I always thought it is called freedom of choice. Sorry mate, I just dont buy talking about US being cause of all the wrong in the world (though I am not an American myself). US is good in SO many areas, and its good to be with the better, isnt it? I wish I always had the right to chose my friends. And I am able to see there is at least one "principle rule" in politics - the rule of the jungle.

09-03-14, 02:44 AM	#1409
ikalugin Ocean Warrior Join Date: Aug 2014 Location: Moscow, Russia Posts: 3,212 Downloads: 8 Uploads: 0	It could, however it does not do so. And please reserve the fairy tale stories about how Ukranian people have rationally and freely chosen the assosiation with the EU without any external influence. You should be, as I am not yours mate. Or pal for that matter. This is not to be taken offensively, I just do not see any grounds so far on which we can be friendly. As to the matter at hand - where did I claim that "US being cause of all the wrong in the world"? I have merely pointed out that the universal rules you have talked about do not exist because major players (such as the US) do not follow them. Thus asking another party (such as Russia) to follow them would be wrong. Then why do you even argue about the morals of Russian participation in Ukranian crisis?

09-03-14, 03:17 AM	#1410
Sbygneus Electrician's Mate Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 137 Downloads: 190 Uploads: 0	Ofcourse we are influenced everyday and by many things - that does not rule out our free choice. For example, we are asked to drink alkohol by group of friends, but It is our choice if we do it or not. At least if one of them is not threating us with a knife do drink. Please dont be fussy about "pals" and "mates". I didnt want to insult you in this way. If I did I apologize. As to the argument about morals of Russian participation in Ukrainian crisis: "the rule of the jungle" I spoke of was irony. I dont agree with this "rule" and I hope you do not either.