Here we go again-Ukraine once again

[Catfish]

What about the russian economy ... crash does not really describe it

[Jimbuna]

[Skybird]

Ukrainian forces should have landed on the Russian-seized side of Dnjepr river near Cherson, and should have already implemented solid supply lines. Russian occupiers should be too weak to defend all land and small villages in that region, and focus only on major towns and cities.

I think its the first of a series of deceptive operations that will prepare the real offensive on several locations along the frontline in coming weeks. The real push will be revealed not before immediately bnefore it happens.The purpose of these feint attacks is to make the Russians engage their reserves by building threats.

I hope the content of the video posted by Catfish proves to be right. Obviously I enver was as optimistic in assessmentr of the economic sancitons, but I would not object at all to be proven wrong by the going of reality.

Still muddy terrain in Ukraine.

Good anaylsis by Gen. Hodges on the relevance of Crimea. I wonder why never ever I have heard this - obvious! - explanation on German quality state propaganda TV. Probably for the same reason why Scholz still never ever has spoken out the words "Ukrainian victory". All the time you only have to have a quick glance at a map to see why Crimea matters, and decides it all. Heck, its so very obvious!

Without Crimea, the Russian threat will persist, no matter seize firings, peace treaties and diplomatic babbling. Negotiations do not make sense as long as Crimea is occupied by the Russians. Its vital and essential for survival of Ukraine.

[Jimbuna]

[Jimbuna]

[Dargo]

Russia is taking into account the scenario that the counter-offensive will start here. That suspicion is fuelled by leaked intelligence documents from the Pentagon, which described that a Ukrainian brigade is being equipped with amphibious vehicles. The attack will begin as soon as the ground has dried up in southern Ukraine, allowing the tracked vehicles to run again, but ammunition supplies will be the deciding factor. Ammunition is the big issue, the last thing you want is to have to stop after a day because you have run out of ammunition. Then you run out of momentum, you have to have a robust stockpile if you want to start. Ukraine's spring offensive will not start until May or June at the earliest.

The Russians will have to prepare for every scenario. This is how it works-the attacker can choose where to attack, but the defender cannot choose where to defend. Ukraine will concentrate on one or two places with overwhelming superiority over the Russians, on land and in the air. It will not be easy to break through the Russian defense, Ukraine must first break in and then break through the line. If that succeeds, you can break out behind the line. But that could be a bloody and days-long battle. Any Russian who has to defend somewhere other than where Ukraine will start its offensive will not be deployed anywhere else.

[Jimbuna]

[Aktungbby]

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/sho...postcount=8033

Originally Posted by WSJ

Emmanuel Macron has been trying to triangulate between the U.S. and China, and it isn’t going well. China’s ambassador to Paris has now embarrassed the French President by declaring that the former nations of the Soviet Union aren’t really sovereign under international law.
China’s Ambassador Lu Shaye was asked on Friday on French TV whether he considered Crimea to be part of Ukraine under international law. In 2014 Russia occupied and annexed Crimea, which had been part of Ukraine since the dissolution of the Soviet empire.
Mr. Lu didn’t stop at Crimea. “Even these ex-Soviet Union countries do not have effective status, as we say, under international law because there’s no international accord to concretize their status as a sovereign country,” Mr. Lu said. The “as we say” is a nice diplomatic touch since the only international law that Beijing recognizes is what serves its increasingly imperial interests.
The diplomat is saying that the many countries that declared their independence when the Soviet Union dissolved aren’t independent at all. That would include Ukraine, but also the three Baltic states, Moldova, and the countries of central Asia like Georgia and Kazakhstan. The clear implication is that Russia is justified in its attempt to conquer Ukraine, and perhaps the other countries too. The Baltic states are furious and said they’d summon the Chinese ambassadors to their countries on Monday. The French Foreign Ministry responded with what it called “consternation” at Mr. Lu’s remarks and said Beijing should “say if these comments reflect its position, which we hope not to be the case.”
What did the French expect? Mr. Macron kowtowed to China’s Xi Jinping on his recent trip to Beijing, saying that Europe shouldn’t take a side over Taiwan. He also beseeched Mr. Xi to use his influence to mediate a settlement to the Russia-Ukraine war. China spotted weakness, as it always does, and has now spat on the French President’s entreaties. Any diplomatic clarification will be a ruse.
China wants the right to snatch any territory it wants to take, including Taiwan, (It already got Tibet) disputed islands off Japan and in the Western Pacific, and border lands with India and others. Maybe Mr. Macron will figure out he’s being played.

Bottom line: WWIII is well underway and there are no rules other than the ones Russia and China espouse as needed enroute to their totalitarian 'New World Order'....Macron, who's nation was rescued twice in the last miserable century with a post-colonial sideshow in Viet Nam, should be well aware of this and stop kissing ass!

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Aktungbby

https://www.subsim.com/radioroom/sho...postcount=8033 Bottom line: WWIII is well underway and there are no rules other than the ones Russia and China espouse as needed enroute to their totalitarian 'New World Order'....Macron, who's nation was rescued twice in the last miserable century with a post-colonial sideshow in Viet Nam, should be well aware of this and stop kissing ass!

So true.

[Catfish]

Originally Posted by Jimbuna

I have no idea whether anything here is true or if it is just a diversion by Ukraine, but i love it –

[Dargo]

Dnieper crossing Ukraine striking, Russia can't ignore

News that Ukrainian soldiers have managed to cross the Dnieper River near Kherson has military analysts surprised. The Ukrainian operation is probably the first step of a larger plan, say former Commander of the Army Mart de Kruif and professor of war studies Frans Osinga. But exactly what that plan is remains guesswork for now - even if Russia should respond to it now. The US Institute for the Study of War reported yesterday that Ukrainian units have taken positions on the eastern bank of the Dnieper. That bank had previously been fully occupied by Russia. ISW relied on satellite images and information from Russian military bloggers. The units also reportedly rigged stable supply lines. Ukraine itself would not say anything about the operation. It is also unclear how many soldiers have made the crossing, and how long they have been there.

Crossing the Dnieper is quite a risk, says professor of war studies Frans Osinga. The river is about 600 meters wide at Kherson, and with every crossing you make yourself vulnerable. Especially given Ukraine's scarce capabilities, Osinga says it must have been a deliberate decision. So the question is what Ukraine is aiming at with the operation. Anyway, the Ukrainian presence on the eastern bank may help push Russian units further away from Kherson. Osinga: "The city was constantly bombarded by Russian artillery from November onwards, which prevented normal life from getting going there."

But whether that is the main reason? "I think you still have to think of something related to an offensive," says Mart de Kruif, former commander of the Land Forces. "Going over the Dnieper is not something you do lightly. To me, this is a side or mock attack, which can serve as a distraction or a starting point for further operations." Osinga also says this operation goes beyond the reconnaissance Ukraine previously conducted in the area. "This seems to be more permanent." The analysts stress that no conclusive answer can be given now as to what exactly Ukraine is planning. "The premise of being on that east bank is good, but that does not mean Ukraine is going to attack there," says De Kruif. In the swampy area with little infrastructure, that would not be obvious either. According to De Kruif, the action could be deception: attracting the Russians' attention here and then striking elsewhere. "Last year, Ukraine also hinted at an offensive near Kherson, upon which the Russians moved troops. Then Ukraine successfully struck in Kharkiv." That area is hundreds of kilometers away.

What is also striking at a glance at the map is the proximity of Crimea. Once you cross the Dnieper, it is still some 90 kilometers to the border with the peninsula, which was annexed by Russia back in 2014. Crossing the river is therefore a direct threat to Russia, says Osinga. "Russia cannot just ignore that. They have to do something with this." That pressure alone could be worth the effort, he says. "You have to see this as the first of several attacks where Ukraine is trying to find out where the Russians are weak," Osinga continues. The Institute for the Study of War, which was the first to report on the Dnieper crossing, argues that Russian units in the Kherson region are poorly organized and undermanned, especially now that better-trained soldiers are needed in other places. Osinga: "Russia is running up against the fact that the front is 1,000 kilometers long. You cannot put the most motivated and best-trained units everywhere." Whatever Ukraine is planning on the sly, it won't be easy. The Ukrainian soldiers crossed are in relatively inaccessible territory and with a 600-metre-wide river behind them. Quickly transferring more troops and pushing through is now impossible. "The logistics are very fragile," says Osinga. "It would be a risky undertaking to make this the base of your counteroffensive."

https://nos.nl/artikel/2472714-dnjep...d-niet-negeren

[Skybird]

A chessplayer asks himself two questions all the time:
What is his threat to me? What threat can I make against him?
Threats must not materialise their object, nevertheless they force the enemy to react to them.

Also, its about getting into the command cycle of the enemy, and forcing more decisions on him than he can process in his military infrastructure. You overload his comms systems, his planning instances, you keep his feet busy and do not allow him to take a solid stand, or get rest. I assume this is where the Ukrainians have clear superiority over the Russians.

[mapuc]

It reminds me of what Von Rundstedt once said when he visit the construction of the Atlantic wall.

(From memory)
"If the enemy manage to dig them down on the beach they can't be thrown out again. It's therefore important to prevent them from doing this"

Markus

[Catfish]

Whatever, the front is now a thousand kilometers long. An attacker can choose where he hits, the defender cannot choose where he defends.

[Skybird]

Isolating Crimea by cutting the land corridor.
Start decimating Crimea hotspots with missiles.
After some time destroying the Kerch bridge as well, when nobody flees anymore.
Then again, more missiles.
And then missiles.
After that, guess it: lots of missiles.

They must not conquer the land square mile by square mile, at high own losses. They must only disrupt supply lines and keep them disrupted.

Its not about delivering a knockout punch, it's about putting the opponent in a headlock, taking away his breath and making sure not to loosen the grip, come what may, until the twitching and spasming stops.

Its not a boxing match with knockout punches, - its suffocating wrestling.